Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Devils Pride 26

The Quest for 91

218 posts in this topic

Just for the record, getting to 91 points gives us a 64.7 - 65.5% chance to get in.  92 points right now gives us a 82.1 - 85.3% chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just for the record, getting to 91 points gives us a 64.7 - 65.5% chance to get in.  92 points right now gives us a 82.1 - 85.3% chance.

That makes things look even worse

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With that schedule I'd gather that we're not going to do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have to win 14 of our next games and expect one of the teams around us to make the playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We need 95 points.

 

We'd have to go on a surprise run to accomplish that.  It's definitely very doable though.

 

15-5-0

14-4-2

13-3-4

12-2-6

11-1-8

10-0-10

 

With that schedule I'd gather that we're not going to do it.

 

We have a light schedule the rest of the way.  The only great team we have to face is Boston.  The rest of the games are against teams that are either on our level or below us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We'd have to go on a surprise run to accomplish that.  It's definitely very doable though.

 

15-5-0

14-4-2

13-3-4

12-2-6

11-1-8

10-0-10

 

 

We have a light schedule the rest of the way.  The only great team we have to face is Boston.  The rest of the games are against teams that are either on our level or below us.

 

And we're sh!t against awful teams and only show up when we face the Blues and Bruins of the world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And we're sh!t against awful teams and only show up when we face the Blues and Bruins of the world.

 

I believe this fact gets a little overblown.  I also believe that they won't let this happen down the stretch.  Now what is gonna suck is all the back to backs. If we were a younger team , I wouldn't be concerned.  But being the oldest team in the league means it's gonna take its toll.

 

vs top 10 Teams: 9-9-4

vs middle 10 teams: 9-9-6

vs bottom 10 teams: 8-5-3

 

Here's how the schedule breaks down.

 

Top 10 teams: 3 games

Middle 10 teams: 8 games

Bottom 10 teams: 9 games

Edited by Mike Brown

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a lot of ways you can look at this, and it involves some cherry-picking. 

 

The overall record isn't very good, but the Devils really haven't had a brutal stretch since they were 12-15-6.  They've gone 14-8-7 since.  That's a .603 point%.  Obviously, part of the reason for the improved play over that time is Cory playing so well...and it's safe to say that if Cory has a slump, the Devils are pretty much screwed...I can't see them ever scoring consistently enough to overcome Cory not playing at his best.  It's the same ol' story...one guy gets hot (right now it's Henrique), another goes ice cold. 

 

I don't think 91 points gets it done.  I also think if it's going to take 95 points, then the Devils shouldn't be buyers, because I can't make a case for them coming up with 75% of the points needed to make that happen over the next 20 games, and I don't see any move or moves out there that Lou can make that could possibly improve the Devils by that much.  Fortunately I think 92-94 will probably (hopefully) be enough. 

 

Here's what you're looking at, as far what the Devils have to do over their final 20 games to reach certain totals, points%-wise:

 

91:  65% 

92:  67.5%

93:  70%

94:  72.5%

95:  75% 

 

Of course, an actual winning streak would make the above look a lot less daunting (a four-game winning streak would work wonders), but it doesn't seem like the Devils can pull one off...just hard to do when you're near the bottom of the league in goal-scoring.  The good news is Cory's goaltending and the Devils' penchant for holding shot totals down has helped them AVOID big losing streaks too.  The most games they've gone without earning at least one point in that 14-8-7 run is two.   

 

Anyway, suffice it to say that the NHL. 500, "treading water" stretches the Devils are prone to have to stop.  On January 24, the Devils got to the three games over NHL .500 for the first time.  10 games later (4-4-2), they're still three games over.  If the Devils have another stretch like that at some point over the next 20, that means they'll have go 8-1-1 in the other games to get to 92 points, which seems like an awful lot to ask.  At this point, I think the Devils can't be seen as any better than 50-50 to get in.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The season comes down to the 2 games vs Detroit this week

I think we can split those, as long as we beat Carolina. We need to stop going to OT in winnable games, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we can split those, as long as we beat Carolina. We need to stop going to OT in winnable games, though.

 

Carolina's basically done.  They're farther out of it than NJ is.  NJ needs at least 3 points in those games and ideally Detroit would come out of them with no more than 1 point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Carolina's basically done.  They're farther out of it than NJ is.  NJ needs at least 3 points in those games and ideally Detroit would come out of them with no more than 1 point.

That's why I'm saying we need to get 2 points against them. IMO we need at least 4 points in those games, preferably 5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would have been happy with a split with Detroit.  But I think we need to get greedy on Friday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

 

An estimated 87% chance of the playoffs if the Devils can hit 92 pts.  It drops to 65-70% at 91 pts.

 

Of course 92 points would mean a 12-6-1 finish.  Not very likely.

 

Devils are 15-8-7 in their last 30 (.617 point%).  They have to go .657 in point% the rest of the way.  It's not that big of a jump. 

 

Of course, PDB actually stating/implying that the #1 goalie spot is still up for grabs probably means there's going to be some avoidable losses along the way.  I can't imagine how Cory must feel right now...Marty is allowed to have all the meh games he wants, but Cory has one and he's benched.  Sadly hilarious. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

besides last nights game and saturdays game brodeur hadnt played in almost a month... its been schneider consistently

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

besides last nights game and saturdays game brodeur hadnt played in almost a month... its been schneider consistently

While that may be true, Pete's comments today are worrisome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm gonna predict the remaining games.

 

Flyers: Loss - They're red hot right now.

Panthers: Win - They suck.

Lightning: Win - They've been in a freefall since January.

Bruins: Loss - We never beat them anymore unless they hand the game to us like earlier this year.

Wild: Win - Scoring problems.

Rangers: Loss - Playing too well, and they added a star winger at the deadline.

Maple Leafs: Win - Bad defense.

Coyotes: Win - Not playing well at all right now.

Islanders: Win - They suck.

Panthers: Win - They suck.

Sabres: Win - They suck.

Capitals: Loss - Still a very talented team albeit inconsistent.

Hurricanes: Win - Bad team.

Flames: Win - Bad team.

Senators: Win - Bad defense and they're inconsistent.

Islanders: Win - They suck.

Bruins : Loss - Great team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i still dont buy the "have to get to a certain amount of points to make it" 

 

its all depends on getting ahead of the teams ahead and that can only happen if we get more points than they do at the end of the run, its not about reaching a certain amount of points at all. 

 

i mean if we get a good streak but that all the teams ahead of us are gettings points and go on a similar streak, they'll still be ahead of us no matter what

Edited by SterioDesign

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i still dont buy the "have to get to a certain amount of points to make it" 

 

its all depends on getting ahead of the teams ahead and that can only happen if we get more points than they do at the end of the run, its not about reaching a certain amount of points at all. 

 

i mean if we get a good streak but that all the teams ahead of us are gettings points and go on a similar streak, they'll still be ahead of us no matter what

 

 

Carolina was one of the teams ahead of the Devils (with games in hand no less) not too long ago.  Not "all of the teams ahead" of the Devils are going to go on hot streaks.   

 

92 points seems like a reasonable line to draw in the sand at this point.  Will that 100% guarantee a playoff berth?  No.  But I can't see the squeak-in total being that much higher, and I can't expect the Devils to go any better than 11-5-1, 10-4-3, or 9-3-5.  Hopefully 92 is enough.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we need to win these 3  games and get to 75 pts fast. without a few 3 and 4 game winning streaks we are going home for the POs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0