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The Quest for 91

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Except there are 8 teams who will be in the playoffs.  Two spots are pretty much locked right now.  That leaves 6 spots.  In order for 91 not to be the cutoff, that means 6 other teams not including BOS or PIT have to get to 92 points.  The likelihood of that happening is very small.  Why?  Because of what I just said.  There's 41 games where all 11 teams in the mix play each other.  The Devils have 5 games with the 10 other teams in the mix.

 

:doh1: But the higher seeded teams need less points to reach 92...which they will.

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:doh1: But the higher seeded teams need less points to reach 92...which they will.

 

Here's what all 11 teams have to do to get to 92 points.  The chance of 6 of the following 11 teams getting to 92 points is there, but not very likely.

 

Tampa Bay: 8-8-1 or 7-7-3

Montreal: 7-7-1 or 6-6-3

Toronto: 6-7-2 or 7-8-0

Detroit: 10-6-1 or 9-5-3

Ottawa: 11-4-2

NY Rangers: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

Columbus: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

New Jersey: 10-5-1 or 9-4-3

Philadelphia: 8-6-3 or 9-7-1

Washington: 10-3-2

Carolina: 12-3-1

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Here's what all 11 teams have to do to get to 92 points.  The chance of 6 of the following 11 teams getting to 92 points is there, but not very likely.

 

Tampa Bay: 8-8-1 or 7-7-3

Montreal: 7-7-1 or 6-6-3

Toronto: 6-7-2 or 7-8-0

Detroit: 10-6-1 or 9-5-3

Ottawa: 11-4-2

NY Rangers: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

Columbus: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

New Jersey: 10-5-1 or 9-4-3

Philadelphia: 8-6-3 or 9-7-1

Washington: 10-3-2

Carolina: 12-3-1

 

I'm sorry but what on  Earth are you talking about? The only teams that need to get to 92 to eliminate 91 as an entry point for us are teams currently seeded 1-9. Teams 1-5 WILL get 92 points unless a catastrophic collapse. Of 6,7,8,9 the likelihood that those teams get to 92 is also high. Perhaps 1 or 2 doesn't but that is a perhaps and only 1 not getting there eliminates 91 from the 8th spot. You are overthinking this.

 

Your point that teams play each other is what it is; silly and obvious.

Edited by Neb00rs

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I'm sorry but what on  Earth are you talking about? The only teams that need to get to 92 to eliminate 91 as an entry point for us are teams currently seeded 1-9. Teams 1-5 WILL get 92 points unless a catastrophic collapse. Of 6,7,8,9 the likelihood that those teams get to 92 is also high. Perhaps 1 or 2 doesn't but that is a perhaps and only 1 not getting there eliminates 91 from the 8th spot. You are overthinking this.

 

Your point that teams play each other is what it is; silly and obvious.

 

Well if you want to be simple.  8 teams need at least 92 points to make 91 points not enough to make the playoffs.  Chances of that happening are slim.

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Well if you want to be simple.  8 teams need at least 92 points to make 91 points not enough to make the playoffs.  Chances of that happening are slim.

 

See here you're just wrong.  Have you have followed a hockey season before? I don't mean that facetiously.

Edited by Neb00rs

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We'll just have to wait and see.

Edited by Mike Brown

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We'll just have to wait and see.

 

No, what you said is just factually not right. The slim chance is that 91 cuts it. That is not debatable.

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Again, 92+ points has been the cutoff point every year but one since the lockout.  There's no reason to expect that to change this year, ergo 91 woudln't be enough.  Maybe this year is one of the years where it will be, but there's no reason to consistently say it'll only take 91 when history shows that's not the case.

 

2011-12 - Ottawa 92 points

2010-11 - Rangers 93 points

2009-10 - Montreal 88 points

2008-09 - Montreal 93 points

2007-08 - Boston 94 points

2006-07 - Islanders 92 points

2005-06 - Tampa Bay 92 points

 

All the eight seeds since the lockout.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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^ This is all and exactly what I am saying. Thank you 4978,  perhaps you put it in clearer terms than I could have.

Edited by Neb00rs

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No, what you said is just factually not right. The slim chance is that 91 cuts it. That is not debatable.

 

There's a slim chance that 8 teams in the East gets to 92 points.  It's roughly a 25% chance that 91 points won't be enough to make it.

Again, 92+ points has been the cutoff point every year but one since the lockout.  There's no reason to expect that to change this year, ergo 91 woudln't be enough.  Maybe this year is one of the years where it will be, but there's no reason to consistently say it'll only take 91 when history shows that's not the case.

 

2011-12 - Ottawa 92 points

2010-11 - Rangers 93 points

2009-10 - Montreal 88 points

2008-09 - Montreal 93 points

2007-08 - Boston 94 points

2006-07 - Islanders 92 points

2005-06 - Tampa Bay 92 points

 

All the eight seeds since the lockout.

 

Those seasons have no bearing on this year though.

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There's a slim chance that 8 teams in the East gets to 92 points.  It's roughly a 25% chance that 91 points won't be enough to make it.

 

Those seasons have no bearing on this year though.

 

Oh man Mike Brown, you're lucky you're a 49ers fan or I would have given up on you by now.

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Again, what basis do you have saying there's a 'slim' chance 8 teams get to 92 points?  The current pace?  The pace always goes up down the stretch as three-point games increase.

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Again, what basis do you have saying there's a 'slim' chance 8 teams get to 92 points?  The current pace?  The pace always goes up down the stretch as three-point games increase.

 

Sports Club Stats has 91 points with anywhere from 76.9% - 83% chance at making the playoffs for us.  They take into account strength of schedule, and a number of other factors to come to their conclusion.  You don't have to buy into their theory if you don't want to.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

 

Here is a source that agrees with you.

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

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Sports Club Stats has 91 points with anywhere from 76.9% - 83% chance at making the playoffs for us.  They take into account strength of schedule, and a number of other factors to come to their conclusion.  You don't have to buy into their theory if you don't want to.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html

 

Here is a source that agrees with you.

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

 

 

Ya know, I thought this was a fair answer last night...but after tonight those odds have probably dramatically shifted lol

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fvck this thread. 10-4-1

 

The Devils can't do 10-4-1. They're just not capable

 

8-6-1 is what they will likely do. 88 points. And just close enough so that we will be cursing the shootout.

Edited by '7'

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The Devils can't do 10-4-1. They're just not capable

 

8-6-1 is what they will likely do. 88 points. And just close enough so that we will be cursing the shootout.

yea i honestly dont see that being possible either.. they screwed themselves earlier and again its going to end up screwing us once again for the second time in a row now.. im certainly not getting my hopes up

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Ya know, I thought this was a fair answer last night...but after tonight those odds have probably dramatically shifted lol

 

Yea, but it's still not bad.

 

If they go 8-3-4, they have a 69.2% chance.

If they go 9-4-2, they have a 73.1% chance.

If they go 10-5-0, they have a 76.2% chance.

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The Devils can't do 10-4-1. They're just not capable

 

8-6-1 is what they will likely do. 88 points. And just close enough so that we will be cursing the shootout.

 

 

yea i honestly dont see that being possible either.. they screwed themselves earlier and again its going to end up screwing us once again for the second time in a row now.. im certainly not getting my hopes up

 

Both of you need to realize that they just did go on a 5-2-0 run (5-3-0 now).  With the schedule the way it is, it's very easily doable to double that to 10-4-0.  The next 5 games are the toughest games they'll have to play.  Then it's basically a cake walk considering most of the games are at home.

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Both of you need to realize that they just did go on a 5-2-0 run (5-3-0 now). With the schedule the way it is, it's very easily doable to double that to 10-4-0. The next 5 games are the toughest games they'll have to play. Then it's basically a cake walk considering most of the games are at home.

Absolutely nothing has been a cakewalk this season. I see no sign that anything is going to be now

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I am not one who believe this season is over yet. That said, the optimists on here are assuming that 10-4-1 will be good enough to get in.

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Both of you need to realize that they just did go on a 5-2-0 run (5-3-0 now).  With the schedule the way it is, it's very easily doable to double that to 10-4-0.  The next 5 games are the toughest games they'll have to play.  Then it's basically a cake walk considering most of the games are at home.

 

Cake walk? We just lost to fvcking Florida. A literal cake walk would not be a cake walk for this team.

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91 points right now gives you a pretty good chance to make the playoffs.  We can get to 91 just by going 10-5.  We won't need a 3 game winning streak to get there.  We just need to keep winning at the pace we're currently winning at since the break.  I was anticipating winning 2 of 3 this week.  I expected the loss to be against Philly and not Florida, but that's not relevant.  If we win tonight, we're 6-3 which is keeping pace to what we've been doing.

 

Regarding the schedule, we have a very home heavy schedule the rest of the way.  We're a much better home team than away team this year.  10 of our 15 games are at the Rock.  And after this 5 game stretch where we go Tampa, Boston, Wild, Rags, Leafs, we have 10 lighter opponents.  Losing one game to Florida doesn't change the fact you'd rather play a light schedule than a tough schedule.

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