Triumph Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We're seeing the Devils turn it around here - as I noted somewhere else, the Devils have not allowed 30 shots in a game since DeBoer was fired. They haven't been shooting the doors off themselves, but they weren't doing that under DeBoer either. That said, they still find themselves 8 points out of a playoff spot and that team has 2 games in hand. I don't think a playoff berth is in the cards, but the Devils have to play the rest of these games. Worst Case Scenario: The Devils go on a huge run through the rest of January and February spurred by great performances out of Jagr and Elias. They don't make any significant moves at the trade deadline and end up faltering down the stretch and don't make the playoffs, finishing just out. This is unlikely but is obviously the worst case scenario - it means a lower draft pick for a few weeks of hope. Worse Case Scenario: The Devils fall apart completely and finish below #4 and draft very high. The Devils are not that bad of a team. Right now they are 5th worst in the league with a points percentage of .440. Still, Buffalo is at .378 and Edmonton is at .329. If they finish below either team, it either means Schneider was hurt, or he was bad, that the offense completely fell apart, and that the defense failed to continue to develop. I think 2 of these things would have to go wrong for the Devils to finish in the bottom 3. Better Case Scenario: The Devils pull it together, Schneider goes on an amazing run, and this team somehow pulls back into playoff contention and gets there. This can't happen without Schneider playing outstanding hockey and while this will hurt the Devils long-term, it also can't happen without some contributions by younger Devils - it's a long hill to climb, and everyone's going to have to pitch in to get there. We know this team doesn't have any superstars. Best Case Scenario: The Devils get a little better, but not enough to credibly consider themselves in the playoff race. They trade away the guys they have to trade away and finish right around where they are now. Schneider ends up having a good season, Kinkaid too, and the young D finishes out the year strong; the offense just isn't there enough nights. NJ picks between 4th and 7th overall in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Man Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Definitely agree with your best case scenario. The difference between 4th and 9th in the lottery really isn't much, so completely falling apart (your worse case scenario) isn't worth the change in draft position. With the current odds, here would be the number of "ping pong balls" in the lottery, assuming 200 total balls. 1: 40 2: 27 3: 23 4: 19 5: 17 6: 15 7: 13 8: 12 9: 10 If they can continue to improve (especially the young D), and can get future assets for the aging players, that'd be ideal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgeControl Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think the best case scenario is also the most probable one. I dont see them putting together the required strings of wins to make a real run..hope they come to this decision sooner than later and not rise "below" the 6th pick.. Im wishing for a combination of the best and worst case LOL meaning lou gets out of this team what he wants to see (like he's doing now) see's a vision and takes out his prunning shears (earlier rather than later) imo, these next ten games will be a 50-50, 60-40 run... Hopefully Lous ego wont get in the way (trying to prove his style and team formation is relavant this year) and he does whats best for the team over the next two years. this is an important draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 If the Devils allow 25 shots a game and Schneider posts a .920 save percentage, that's two goals a game. I think that's a realistic target for this team defensively. Probably could end up being better than that. But yeah, there is not enough offense to consistently gain points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitico12 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Go 15-2-3 in the next 20 games and I'll believe we're going somewhere... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 (edited) Great post Tri. Agree with every word. I already said this in another post, but Schneider really has been much better overall than he's been given credit for from 10/24 on (.922 save%). Even if he goes on a tear, it's going to have to be a very consistent, in-the-.940s kind of run for his play to be that much better than what he's already provided. Edited January 7, 2015 by Colorado Rockies 1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devil Dan 56 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Very nice way of putting things in perspective, Tri. I'm hoping for either one of those best cases, but more for the 4-7 pick because this franchise could use that kind of player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Better Case Scenario: The Devils pull it together, Schneider goes on an amazing run, and this team somehow pulls back into playoff contention and gets there. This can't happen without Schneider playing outstanding hockey and while this will hurt the Devils long-term, it also can't happen without some contributions by younger Devils - it's a long hill to climb, and everyone's going to have to pitch in to get there. We know this team doesn't have any superstars. I don't think that's entirely accurate. Schneider can play lights out as much as he wants, but if we can't score, we can't win. We'd need to pus our goals scored per game up closer to 2.75 ish. Scoring 2.10 per game or whatever we are up to these days is not going to get it done despite Schneider's play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HellOnICE Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Best case scenario add on...we finish 4-7 and win the fvcking lottery. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 I don't think that's entirely accurate. Schneider can play lights out as much as he wants, but if we can't score, we can't win. We'd need to pus our goals scored per game up closer to 2.75 ish. Scoring 2.10 per game or whatever we are up to these days is not going to get it done despite Schneider's play. Don't agree - if Schneider's a .930 goalie and the Devils are allowing 25 shots a game, that's a 1.75 GAA. At the very least that's enough to play a ton of 3 point games and who knows what can happen in those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkirt Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For me it's all about next October, or really April 2016. I don't care where we finish this year, or where we pick. The important thing is to have this young Defense develop good habits, Schneider to stay healthy, and for us to shed the old forwards. Then we can get back into the most important part of the year...playoffs So thats the best case scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For me it's all about next October, or really April 2016. I don't care where we finish this year, or where we pick. The important thing is to have this young Defense develop good habits, Schneider to stay healthy, and for us to shed the old forwards. Then we can get back into the most important part of the year...playoffs So thats the best case scenario Ah yes, shed the old forwards and plug in all that glorious youth we have stashed in the minors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgeControl Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For me it's all about next October, or really April 2016. I don't care where we finish this year, or where we pick. The important thing is to have this young Defense develop good habits, Schneider to stay healthy, and for us to shed the old forwards. Then we can get back into the most important part of the year...playoffs So thats the best case scenario well, who's scoring goals for you in 2016? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewarkDevil5 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 At the very least that's enough to play a ton of 3 point games and who knows what can happen in those. I know this one! The Devils get 1 point! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgeControl Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 would anyone give zid 3 years at 3 mil per? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLL765 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 (edited) would anyone give zid 3 years at 3 mil per?Only if that person is insane. Zidlicky has been accepting reasonably priced 1 year deals for the past few years. There's no reason to offer a deal for longer than that. If I'm Lou, maybe I offer another 1 year deal for around $3M since we don't have another RHD to replace him.It's possible we can find a younger, even if only slightly younger, player who could replace most of what Zidlicky does in FA, so maybe Lou looks to go that route of he feels that Zidlicky doesn't have enough left in the tank to put up good numbers for another season. Edited January 8, 2015 by ATLL765 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Only if that person is insane. Zidlicky has been accepting reasonably priced 1 year deals for the past few years. There's no reason to offer a deal for longer than that. If I'm Lou, maybe I offer another 1 year deal for around $3M since we don't have another RHD to replace him. It's possible we can find a younger, even if only slightly younger, player who could replace most of what Zidlicky does in FA, so maybe Lou looks to go that route of he feels that Zidlicky doesn't have enough left in the tank to put up good numbers for another season. Was interesting though that per an ESPN insider article, a few anonomys GMs or front office types said that Zidlicky is a more valuable trade chip than Jagr. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Don't agree - if Schneider's a .930 goalie and the Devils are allowing 25 shots a game, that's a 1.75 GAA. At the very least that's enough to play a ton of 3 point games and who knows what can happen in those. It's highly unlikely that he ends the season at 1.75 GAA, or that he goes for that from here to the end. IF that's your parameter for "playing outstanding hockey", then maybe you are right. To me, he's going to be in the 2.25-2.35 area if he plays outstanding from here out. Do you honestly feel we can make the playoffs scoring 2 goals a game? Also, we ALL know what happens in the three point games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLL765 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Was interesting though that per an ESPN insider article, a few anonomys GMs or front office types said that Zidlicky is a more valuable trade chip than Jagr. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I'm not sure he's a more valuable asset, but it's close. RHD are highly sought after and so are PMDs. Zidlicky is both those things and is once again putting up an impressive number of points. These things will make him a coveted asset at the trade deadline. I would only be mildly surprised if a team was willing to offer up a 1st round pick in exchange for him. In recent years Paul Gaustad was traded for a 1st rd pick, Douglas Murray was traded for 2 2nds and even Hal Gill brought back a 2nd+ Blake Geoffrion and Robert Slaney, though he was traded along with a conditional 5th. If those guys were all worth a 2nd rd pick or more, then Zidlicky is as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's highly unlikely that he ends the season at 1.75 GAA, or that he goes for that from here to the end. IF that's your parameter for "playing outstanding hockey", then maybe you are right. To me, he's going to be in the 2.25-2.35 area if he plays outstanding from here out. Do you honestly feel we can make the playoffs scoring 2 goals a game? Also, we ALL know what happens in the three point games. He's not going to end the season at 1.75 GAA. I think it's possible - call it 10% of the time - that from here on out he does that or better, and that 20% more of the time he's between that and 2.00 GAA. The Devils' run in 2010-11, I don't think they were scoring more than 2.5 goals/game, and probably less. They were just winning the 3 point games, which is still entirely possible to do. As for Zidlicky, he probably is more valuable just because his role is known. I do not want him back next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We missed the playoffs in 2010-11. We scored 2.12 goals per game. If you are talking about the run to the finals in 2011-2012, we scored 2.74 per game that season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 We missed the playoffs in 2010-11. We scored 2.12 goals per game. If you are talking about the run to the finals in 2011-2012, we scored 2.74 per game that season. I'm talking about when the team started winning lots of games in 2010-11. I don't think they scored that many goals on that long run of wins. If they can play very strong defense, Schneider is good enough to take them to OT in a lot of games and then who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm talking about when the team started winning lots of games in 2010-11. I don't think they scored that many goals on that long run of wins. If they can play very strong defense, Schneider is good enough to take them to OT in a lot of games and then who knows. As stated above, we all know. You can't win in overtime if you can't score, and they have a better chance of the Mites on Ice scoring in the shootout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 As stated above, we all know. You can't win in overtime if you can't score, and they have a better chance of the Mites on Ice scoring in the shootout. Both of these things aren't true, but whatever. There's no reason why the Devils can't start winning shootouts. They've already won 2 this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 You can win in overtime without scoring? That's news to me. I agree there's no reason they can't win shootouts. That doesn't explain why they rarely do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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