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The Devils Need A Center Right Now


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With the Devils' failure to fail, they've distanced themselves from the likely Auston Matthews drafters.  They still somehow sit tied for 12th in points in the league, though much of the league has games in hand on them - they're actually 15th in points percentage.  I'll still bet they end up around 22nd-24th when it's all over, but that's still not great odds on drafting first overall.  

One of the issues with the top end of this year's draft is that it appears short on centers - after Matthews, there's a surprising amount of wingers, but not many centers.  Alex Nylander is listed as a center - will he be able to stay there as a pro?  It's unclear.  Even so, I don't think the Devils can expect a center to arrive next year - I don't think Zacha will stick at center, maybe Blandisi's good enough to be an NHLer but there's a lot I'm skeptical about in his game, and then there's not a whole lot else.

Meanwhile, the Devils centers this year are Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac, Jacob Josefson, and Stephen Gionta.  Henrique's been good - he has 9 goals at 5 on 5.  The other 3 guys have 1 goal each.  That's it.  1 goal for each man.  This is not a problem that's getting better - Zajac is over 30, Josefson is Josefson, and Gionta is Gionta.  I'd set the line on their 5 on 5 goals in the 2nd half at 6 goals.  That's not good enough.

I'm not exactly sure how they can get a center - the guy I want is Alex Khokhlachev, who seems to be Boston's forgotten man.  With Bergeron, Krejci, and Spooner down the middle for the B's, I'm not clear on where Khokhlachev gets his shot, but he's currently beating up on the minors (again).  I don't know what they can trade for him - I'd trade a 2nd round pick and Matteau but I'm not sure that gets it done.  I don't know who else is out there - Sam Gagner is not a center - but they've got to do something soon.  If Henrique ever got hurt this team is simply lost, and that goes for now and next year too.

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RNH seems like he could be a target, tho his price would likely be too rich.

Guys like Khokhlachev, Namestnikov and Loktianov are good risks that NJ should be taking and wont break the bank. They're good bets to at least be 2nd/3rd line scoring, soft minute centers.  Loktionov, while he may not have totally panned, did show some promise and was useful. You are right in saying that the draft is pretty much the only way to get top 6 centers. It's pretty much impossible

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Does this mean you would not trade for Drouin unless you were getting him at a real bargain, if not necessarily a steal?

Does it also mean that you would trade someone like Severson for RNH?  I think that's a deal that Edmonton would definitely do.  Need defensemen badly, RNH will soon be their third best center if he isn't that already, and they have a very good shot at getting yet another top three pick, perhaps even number 1 overall again.

Edited by Daniel
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26 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Does this mean you would not trade for Drouin unless you were getting him at a real bargain, if not necessarily a steal?

Does it also mean that you would trade someone like Severson for RNH?  I think that's a deal that Edmonton would definitely do.  Need defensemen badly, RNH will soon be their third best center if he isn't that already, and they have a very good shot at getting yet another top three pick, perhaps even number 1 overall again.

No, I wouldn't make that deal with Severson, and I wouldn't trade for Drouin because there's no way anyone is getting him at a 'steal'.  It's also very unlikely that Edmonton picks #1 overall.

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Henrique is a 50 to 60 point center.  That is plenty for a top line center.  Zajac is a 40 to50 point center.  That is plenty for a 2nd line center.

We need an offensive defensemen more than we need a center.  Our top 6 is very good.  Our bottom 6 is mediocre at best, but the offense from the defense is the one area where we lag behind the rest of the league significantly.

Just look at Pittsburgh.  They have an elite forward core, but a mediocre defense core at best.  They're below us in goal scoring.  Forwards can'rt score if the dmen can't get them the puck.

Edited by Mike Brown
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6 hours ago, NJDfan1711 said:

We should've signed Mike Richards.  Low risk, with possible potential to help us.  I'm still pissed we didn't make him an offer and now he was just picked up by the Capitals.  If the #1 team in the league could find a use for him, we know we could have.

It's easy to sit here in hindsight and say "we should've signed X". But you're "pissed" about something that we don't know the entire story on either. It's entirely possible an overture was made to him but not made public. Secondly, the Capitals have Justin Williams on their roster who likely is a catalyst for Richards going there. For Washington, its an easy risk to take and there's at least a buffer there for Richards in someone that he knows and has played with extensively. It'd have been an easy risk for us too, but we just don't know the entire story on the nature of his signing. Its a two way street, not only does an offer have to be extended, but the player has to accept it as well. Its potentially a damned if you do/damned if you don't situation.

 

5 hours ago, SMantzas said:

RNH seems like he could be a target, tho his price would likely be too rich.

Assuredly will be. Edmonton immediately asks for Larsson in a straight up deal or Severson + otherwise, and that plus is likely high draft picks. Is anyone prepared to offer that? I'm certainly not. As much as I believe RNH would be someone who definitely could help us (unlike the aforementioned Richards and hopeful fliers), the cost for us at this moment is just too much to bear. This team is showing us now exactly who many thought they were going into the season. Little depth up front and an exceedingly young blueline who have not progressed enough. We played above our heads for the first half of the season and as it looks now the sink is starting as the season wears on. Giving up Larsson is not optimal needless to say as then he needs to be replaced. It would be a lot easier to look to these kind of guys (RNH) if Merrill and Gelinas had shown some progression of merit so far this season, but neither have shown anything beyond either plateauing or even regression at points. We're just not in the position to make moves for the guys that will cost serious assets since we have so few that teams like Edmonton would be interested in. The risk is just too high going forward IMO.

We definitely need another center, but the acquiring of one is the hard part. I'm to the point where I'm content with playing this season out, selling whatever is expendable/gives a decent enough return around the deadline to acquire assets and hopefully scoring a talent in the draft and maybe a strong acquisition or two via UFA/trade over the summer. The betterment of this team is a long process and I think the early part of this season gave a lot of us false hope that the turnaround would be quicker. I just don't believe we have the horses to compete over the entirety of an NHL season at the moment.

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11 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Saying we need a defenseman, offensive defenseman or not, over a forward is simply ludicrous.

No it's not.  The offense from our dmen is way behind the rest of the league.  The forward production is right on par with the rest of the league.

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45 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Saying we need a defenseman, offensive defenseman or not, over a forward is simply ludicrous.

Severson who's the leading-point getter is on pace for twenty-two points.  That's not good.  They really DO need to get more offense from the blueline though I think the main part of the problem is systematic and Severson eventually will be better offensively.

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35 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

No it's not.  The offense from our dmen is way behind the rest of the league.  The forward production is right on par with the rest of the league.

Except part of that production is from a short-term bandaid in Stempniak and Zajac riding out a hot start before morphing back into the Zajac of the last few years.  They really 'do' need another center to bump Travis down to third-line checking center once and for all where he belongs.

Plus the production from the back six is woefully bad, the Devils are the definition of top-heavy.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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The following is a list of teams who are in the bottom 5 in goals per game this season.

  1. Anaheim - 1.85
  2. Philadelphia - 2.16
  3. New Jersey - 2.24
  4. Buffalo - 2.28
  5. Carolina - 2.29

Here is the defense scoring of all 5 of those teams.

  1. Carolina - 24 goals, 52 assists, 76 points
  2. Buffalo - 15 goals, 50 assists, 65 points
  3. Philadelphia - 15 goals, 39 assists, 54 points
  4. Anaheim - 14 goals, 39 assists, 54 points
  5. New Jersey - 13 goals, 36 assists, 49 points
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4 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Except part of that production is from a short-term bandaid in Stempniak and Zajac riding out a hot start before morphing back into the Zajac of the last few years.  They really 'do' need another center to bump Travis down to third-line checking center once and for all where he belongs.

Plus the production from the back six is woefully bad, the Devils are the definition of top-heavy.

Zajac and Stempniak have produced like top 6 forwards for most of their careers.  Zajac is and always been at worst a 45 point center, and Stempniak is a 20 goal, 45 point guy as well.  I get it that we want to upgrade, but it's far from the team's biggest need.

And the best place to start if we want to improve offense from the forwards is to get the offense from the back end going first.  A good 3rd liner produces at around a 25 to 30 point clip.  Granted, none of our 3rd liners are doing that, but because it is a 3rd line they're not supposed to be players who create their own offense.  The bottom 6 needs more offensive help from the defense.  They're just not getting it.

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20 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Severson who's the leading-point getter is on pace for twenty-two points.  That's not good.  They really DO need to get more offense from the blueline though I think the main part of the problem is systematic and Severson eventually will be better offensively.

I'm in agreement. I'll echo this point because I was almost gonna post in last night's GT about the lack of a Devil defenseman who can carry the puck up ice and create offense. Severson should develop into that. Larsson is more of a shutdown type. Offense should come. Greene is strictly a shutdown guy. Gelinas is an AHL caliber guy. They should just get rid of him. J. Moore is what he is. Good shot. But not consistent. Merrill I can't explain. The Devils can really use a more offensive type D who can control the play and run a PP.

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re: defensemen carrying the puck up ice - the devils absolutely have personnel who can do this - you see it in greene, schelmko, severson and moore. what is clear is that hynes system doesn't call for that. it looks for a pass to a forward going through the neutral zone to enter the zone.

 

the lack of points from defense has just as much to do with lack of points overall - the team is not a high scoring team and the goals that do come are not based off point shots like they were for so many years. it also doesn't help that you've got your top TOI defensemen not getting any real PP time. moore and schlemko are the PP defensemen and they get 2nd and 3rd pairing minutes for the most part (although moore has been seeing more 5v5 TOI lately).

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4 hours ago, Mike Brown said:

Zajac and Stempniak have produced like top 6 forwards for most of their careers.  Zajac is and always been at worst a 45 point center, and Stempniak is a 20 goal, 45 point guy as well.  I get it that we want to upgrade, but it's far from the team's biggest need.

And the best place to start if we want to improve offense from the forwards is to get the offense from the back end going first.  A good 3rd liner produces at around a 25 to 30 point clip.  Granted, none of our 3rd liners are doing that, but because it is a 3rd line they're not supposed to be players who create their own offense.  The bottom 6 needs more offensive help from the defense.  They're just not getting it.

:huh:

Zajac had 25 last season. Stempniak has hit 20/45 once - 10 years ago. Both are 30+ and we're not talking about wine here. Yeah, rates make Stempniak look better but Zajac goes the opposite route. What you're saying about them simply isn't true. 

The Devils forward core this season shakes out something like this 5v5:

1 guy producing at a good 1st line rate (Cammalleri)

1 low end 1st liner (Henrique)

1 2nd liner (Farnham, likely to keep it up...ha...ha..)

2 3rd liners (Palmieri, Stempniak)

2 4th (Zajac, Elias)

And the rest are sub-replacement in scoring. This team needs scoring throughout the lineup. No part or line is fine.

 

 

Edited by Marshall
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Marshall, if you look at the offensive production from the back end, it compares much worse to the rest of the league than how the forward production compares to the rest of the league.  Also if you improve the back end offense, the offense will trickle down to the forwards especially the bottom 6.  Tyler Kennedy for example had 14 points in 38 games last year which is right around 30 points.  That's plenty for a 3rd liner.  He wouldn't just lose his ability like that.

Last season were anomalies for both Zajac and Stempniak.  The "what have you done for me lately" stance is a bad way to prognosticate players.  Stempniak was playing on the 4th line last year which is not where he belongs  Let's look at where he was in the season prior to last season.  He's also only 32 years old which means he's still in the prime of his career.  His skills didn't just diminish out of nowhere.

  • 13-14: 34 points in 73 games (low end 2nd line production)
  • 12-13: 32 points in 47 games (middle of pack 1st line production)
  • 11-12: 28 points in 61 games (low end 2nd line production)
  • 10-11: 38 points in 82 games (low end 2nd line production)

Zajac had 48 points 2 seasons ago.  That's plenty for a 2nd line center.  He was also snake bit last year along with the fact that he had the mumps and was never able to shake off the effects.  So let's just throw last year out as it goes against the norm for Zajac.

Edited by Mike Brown
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The Devils need just about everything. We know how thin the forwards are, but these defensemen have been highly overrated by this fan base since Merrill and Gelinas played in their first NHL games. Our need for puck moving D is as pressing as our need for top 6 forwards. Assuming the Devils don't win the draft lottery or end up somehow in the top 5, they should definitely grab Olli Juolevi if he's on the board. The group of centers in this draft isn't deep enough to hope to grab one between 8-17 where we will probably pick. If I'm making that pick, I'm going with Dubois, DeBrincat, or Gauthier if Juolevi isn't available. 

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