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'7'

New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

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'7'    567

The back issues are a concern with Walker and Dyuda. And despite some nice runs (and impressive HR totals) Walker went through about a 2 months stretch where he did zilch. His RBI totals in May and June would make Luis Castillo laugh. Few things can derail a career and sap power faster than a bad back.

Tough to gauge Bruce's value. To us he's been exposed for what he is but some other team may look at those numbers and overrate him. Would be nice if we can get a decent 3b or SS prospect for him in a deal as well as a good toolsy bench player.

If Wright is shot, if the workload catches up to Familia, if Duda/Walker are hobbled all year and Cespedes has his nagging quad strains having him miss time...if Harvey can never regain his old form and Grandy finally can't turn it around after a .160 April and May. The top end of the rotation is too good to have a full crash and burn 2009 but honestly it wouldn't shock me either to see them win 77-79 either with more bad injury luck.

However if things DO break right I can see them winning in the upper 90's.

Edited by '7'

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nmigliore    4

Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections have this team at 84 wins as currently constructed (Nats are at 88 for reference), but they expect the Mets to get zilch out of Wright (which may be fair) and the projections on Granderson, Cabrera, and Cespedes all seem a bit light. That trio combined for +8.8 WAR last season despite a banged up, 132-game output from Cespedes; the projections peg them for +5.3 in 2017. It's fair to reason that Granderson and Cabrera will regress given their ages, but projecting them to be worth a combined +2.4 WAR seems pretty pessimistic in my eyes. They'd also gain about a win just by dumping Bruce and replacing him with Conforto, so I see them closer to maybe 86-88 wins.

The outfield defense will probably be ugly again unless the Mets go out and make two outfielder trades (I doubt it), but for me, the main priority at this point should be jettisoning Bruce and fortifying the bullpen a bit. I still stand by the idea of Steve Pearce for the bench and it would be nice to find a catcher, but they'll probably give d'Arnaud one more go at it.

Edited by nmigliore

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'7'    567

They sniffed around Pearce last offseason (and Bruce 2 trade deadlines ago as well I believe) I think they'll get their man this time around.

If this pitching staff performs and is relatively healthy then it will take one heck of an offensive implosion not to win 90 at least. They're such a tough team to handicap.

I don't think Murphy will continue to be Babe Ruth in Washington, but that will probably be balanced out with a much better year from Harper.

 

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I think they're somewhere around 87-90 wins right now...for some reason I'm assuming (praying?) that somehow most of the arms will manage to survive the 2017 season. 

As for Pearce...I do like that he doesn't strike out much, but he seems like a bit of a wild card...quite good in 2014 and 2016, not so much in 2015.  I'd probably roll the dice with him based on his 2014 and 2016 seasons.  But 2015 Pearce will feel like yet another failed Sandy signing...hopefully that doesn't happen.

Unfortunately Cespedes is probably going to buy the Mets TOO much currency with a lot of fans...those fans are going to be so thrilled with his being re-signed that they'll overlook this offseason if no improvements are made...to those fans, this offseason already feels like a win...but upgrades elsewhere are needed.  The offense as currently constructed still strikes out way too much and doesn't hit (or score) enough. 

The Mets HAVE to plan for 2017 as though Wright will provide nothing...but I fear they're depending on him much more than they should.  Obviously with Walker back, you've got Reyes to man third...but that's still shaky...both Walker and Reyes are injury-prone, and Reyes really wasn't that great as a leadoff hitter (.267 BA/.326 OB%).  Also gotta wonder where Flores fits in all of this (though it always seems like ABs have a way of materializing for him).     

 

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NJDevs4978    218
2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I think they're somewhere around 87-90 wins right now...for some reason I'm assuming (praying?) that somehow most of the arms will manage to survive the 2017 season. 

As for Pearce...I do like that he doesn't strike out much, but he seems like a bit of a wild card...quite good in 2014 and 2016, not so much in 2015.  I'd probably roll the dice with him based on his 2014 and 2016 seasons.  But 2015 Pearce will feel like yet another failed Sandy signing...hopefully that doesn't happen.

Unfortunately Cespedes is probably going to buy the Mets TOO much currency with a lot of fans...those fans are going to be so thrilled with his being re-signed that they'll overlook this offseason if no improvements are made...to those fans, this offseason already feels like a win...but upgrades elsewhere are needed.  The offense as currently constructed still strikes out way too much and doesn't hit (or score) enough. 

The Mets HAVE to plan for 2017 as though Wright will provide nothing...but I fear they're depending on him much more than they should.  Obviously with Walker back, you've got Reyes to man third...but that's still shaky...both Walker and Reyes are injury-prone, and Reyes really wasn't that great as a leadoff hitter (.267 BA/.326 OB%).  Also gotta wonder where Flores fits in all of this (though it always seems like ABs have a way of materializing for him).     

How are they counting on Wright too much? They have Reyes/Flores/TJ Rivera hanging around; now that your middle infield is intact one of them can play third assuming Wright can't, that's about as much insurance as you can have short of some blockbuster deal. If anything he's a nice - albeit costly - luxury, you could use his RH bat in a lefty heavy lineup if he does somehow come back. First base is a different type of question with Duda but it's not like moving Wright there automatically helps, or that he/Conforto/Bruce would even be able to handle first.

I get the idea that they 'just stood pat' but standing pat presumably includes much healthier starting pitching than they had last year. If anything their chief concern should be the pen ATM and resigning/replacing Blevins and Salas as well as getting insurance for Familia likely missing a month and a half. That's the one area where they have a clear issue compared to last year. I wouldn't even mind trading Bruce for pen help.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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12 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

How are they counting on Wright too much? They have Reyes/Flores/TJ Rivera hanging around; now that your middle infield is intact one of them can play third assuming Wright can't, that's about as much insurance as you can have short of some blockbuster deal. If anything he's a nice - albeit costly - luxury, you could use his RH bat in a lefty heavy lineup if he does somehow come back. First base is a different type of question with Duda but it's not like moving Wright there automatically helps, or that he/Conforto/Bruce would even be able to handle first.

I get the idea that they 'just stood pat' but standing pat presumably includes much healthier starting pitching than they had last year. If anything their chief concern should be the pen ATM and resigning/replacing Blevins and Salas as well as getting insurance for Familia likely missing a month and a half. That's the one area where they have a clear issue compared to last year. I wouldn't even mind trading Bruce for pen help.

I think a pretty good version of what Wright used to be is still the Mets' Plan A for third.  I mentioned Reyes and Flores...yeah, I agree that it's not like there aren't any bodies available when Plan A fails, but Reyes is iffy (he's not that strong of a leadoff hitter, though he can excite at times), and though Flores continues to make slow improvement at the plate, he needs to take a bigger step forward.  With Flores, it's hard to think there won't be 350 or so ABs waiting for him in the infield.  No way Walker and whomever's playing third get through the season without a DL trip or two.  Ditto Duda if he's around.    

I think the areas they need to address, in no particular order (obviously won't be able to take care of all of them), are catcher, first base, third base, and the 'pen.  Probably time to find out if Lagares and Nimmo have a place on the 2017-and-beyond Mets.  Conforto unfortunately is in that rock-and-hard place, where if he struggles up here, he goes to Vegas and promptly rakes (while learning nothing). 

Just to be clear, I'm not accusing the Mets of standing pat on 11/30...there's still a LOT of offseason yet.  But I do think Sandy and the Mets can't sell us on a successful offseason, if the team is coming back almost identical to last year's group...Sandy has to show some creativity in tweaking this mix.  Like I said, for some reason I DO think the starting pitching will be healthier than last year...don't know why, just a gut feeling...but the ironic thing is Lugo and Gsellman (not to mention Colon) did a hell of a job offsetting the injury losses.  So unless Harvey turns back into the "old" Harvey, the Mets might not gain as much in the rotation as we'd like to think. 

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'7'    567

Mets trade Logan Verrett to the Orioles for Cash according to Adam Rubin.

And I'm sure we'll be welcoming him back to Queens or Vegas along with Tolo come midseason

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8 minutes ago, '7' said:

Mets trade Logan Verrett to the Orioles for Cash according to Adam Rubin.

And I'm sure we'll be welcoming him back to Queens or Vegas along with Tolo come midseason

Gsellman and Lugo pretty much made Verrett expendable...you also have Wheeler and Harvey back in the fold...and Verrett's basically lousy numbers (1.56 WHIP) meant there was a good chance he was getting moved...no one needs to see him get shelled in Vegas. 

Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Wheeler, Harvey, Gsellman, Lugo...Montero's still kicking around too, though he continues to be non-existent to me, as far as any future here goes.   

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'7'    567

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/sports/baseball/mlb-all-star-game-world-series.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=sports/baseball&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Baseball&pgtype=article

Thank goodness. What a silly idea anyway...the All-Star game had no business having any impact on a World Series. So many conflicts of interest arise. A manager who actually thinks he will be managing in October may push guys and try to win, while across the field in the other dugout it's all about getting people into the game and who cares who wins or loses. 

It went from being a full exhibition to a semi-serious game. You can't be on again/off again regarding competitiveness.

The fact that the Cubs didn't have home field this year with 103 wins was a joke and a last straw type of thing much like the 103 win 1993 Giants missing the playoffs was the last straw before the introduction of the Wild Card

Edited by '7'

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16 minutes ago, '7' said:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/sports/baseball/mlb-all-star-game-world-series.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=sports/baseball&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Baseball&pgtype=article

Thank goodness. What a silly idea anyway...the All-Star game had no business having any impact on a World Series. So many conflicts of interest arise. A manager who actually thinks he will be managing in October may push guys and try to win, while across the field in the other dugout it's all about getting people into the game and who cares who wins or loses. 

 

You beat me to it '7'...man that was a ridiculous rule from the day it was implemented.  Glad common fvcking sense FINALLY prevailed on that one. 

Some rumors going around that both Bruce AND Grandy could be dealt.  In Bruce's case, as many would agree, I'm all for it...don't let it hit you on the way out.  Guy would be a perfect fit for Colorado. 

With Grady it's a little more complicated...I think the guy is a terrific player to have in your clubhouse...articulate and just seems like an all-around good person.  Unfortunately when he's going bad, he's often going REALLY bad (as in about as invisible as it gets)...and the Mets, as we well know (with all of the low BA/high K guys) have too many players like that. 

Of course, when he's going strong, he can really help...I just don't think he does it often enough...I would sign up for another 2015-type season from him right now, but when you look at 2009-on, it really seems like that was an outlier season.  If he approximates something between his 2014 and 2016 seasons, we're probably going to be frustrated...of course, chances are he'll be hitting lower in the order from Day 1 if he's still on the team, so his year will have a whole different feel from the very start.  

As we all know, the team does need tweaking...if that means Granderson (who I doubt will be re-signed anyway) is jettisoned, so be it.  Overall, I have to admit, he wound up being better than I expected, especially considering how his first season as a Met went.  And though you can argue that Terry often stuck him in the lineup TOO much, the guy was definitely one of the healthier Mets in recent years.  God knows we've seen our share of fragile bodies.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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'7'    567

Colorado definitely. A lot of his fly balls will be HR's there and he'd be another 40hr 120rbi Coors Field Mirage who hits .210 on the road with 8 home runs. Not sure what kind of package we could get back from them but I'd somebody like Gerardo Parra or a Daniel Descalso could be useful in return. Though they would not be the centerpiece to the package.

There really is no player in sports I am more bipolar about than Granderson. He is the weirdest. I could swear he was absolutely finished in 2014...turns it around. 2015 he was practically our offensive MVP. 2016 was another yo yo season. Rob Deer one week and Darryl Strawberry circa 1988 the next.

I also don't think he's hurt us in the field as much as most would've expected. And he's used the new more reasonable dimensions of Citi to his advantage. He is a model citizen and really the perfect Met. I think the Wilpons love clean cut guys like him and like having him in the community representing the franchise. I could actually see them getting involved and vetoing a trade if Sandy seems on the brink

He's going to be 36 and a high K guy though. Once he loses some of the bat speed he has it's going to be very ugly. If teams are offering up packages with a legit almost ready made 3b prospect...I think long and hard.

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nmigliore    4

Trading two outfielders would definitely make more sense from roster construction standpoint - by moving just one, the team still doesn't have an actual CF, but by moving two, you suddenly have room to bring in a real CF. But who would that be? They almost certainly aren't moving both to plop Lagares in CF. Bruce would be a pure salary dump, Granderson much less so, but I don't think you're getting back a starting CF for either of them. Conforto is the more attractive trade chip if you go down that route (Dave Cameron of Fangraphs reviewed this precise scenario here). Would they consider signing Fowler with the salary savings? I have to say, the trade-off of Bruce and Granderson for Fowler is pretty attractive - the outfield logjam would be cleared, the lefty-heaviness mitigated, the outfield defensive scheme no longer worrisome, and the Mets would probably even come out ahead in wins with that swap (plus you're getting somethings back for Granderson and Bruce).

Edited by nmigliore

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I like it nmig.  I like it not only for the reasons listed, but for the change in team dynamic.  Fowler gets on base. 

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NJDevs4978    218
3 hours ago, nmigliore said:

Trading two outfielders would definitely make more sense from roster construction standpoint - by moving just one, the team still doesn't have an actual CF, but by moving two, you suddenly have room to bring in a real CF. But who would that be? They almost certainly aren't moving both to plop Lagares in CF. Bruce would be a pure salary dump, Granderson much less so, but I don't think you're getting back a starting CF for either of them. Conforto is the more attractive trade chip if you go down that route (Dave Cameron of Fangraphs reviewed this precise scenario here). Would they consider signing Fowler with the salary savings? I have to say, the trade-off of Bruce and Granderson for Fowler is pretty attractive - the outfield logjam would be cleared, the lefty-heaviness mitigated, the outfield defensive scheme no longer worrisome, and the Mets would probably even come out ahead in wins with that swap (plus you're getting somethings back for Granderson and Bruce).

It's not a scenario I'd hate but it seems so unrealistic cause there's too many moving parts (Fowler has to agree to come here and/or they have to trade for a CF'er elsewhere).  But honestly if they do trade Grandy AND Bruce they're probably doing it to get a Lagares/Nimmo platoon in CF or Lagares everyday which I'd hate, you can't count on the guy to be an everyday player and he can't even hit enough to fill that role.  I think it's more realistic they trade Bruce and have either Grandy/Conforto play center with Lagares as the defensive replacement.

If you're trading Granderson OR Bruce it should be Bruce ten out of ten times.  I'm actually surprised Grandy has the higher trade value though, I guess with both guys on a one-year deal age doesn't matter and most execs don't actually like Bruce too much.  I don't really get the notion he's a bandbox player though, he's always had similar splits between GABP and the road.  He's just someone that can't hack NY or a pennant race.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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NJDevs4978    218
5 hours ago, '7' said:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/sports/baseball/mlb-all-star-game-world-series.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=sports/baseball&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Baseball&pgtype=article

Thank goodness. What a silly idea anyway...the All-Star game had no business having any impact on a World Series. So many conflicts of interest arise. A manager who actually thinks he will be managing in October may push guys and try to win, while across the field in the other dugout it's all about getting people into the game and who cares who wins or loses. 

It went from being a full exhibition to a semi-serious game. You can't be on again/off again regarding competitiveness.

The fact that the Cubs didn't have home field this year with 103 wins was a joke and a last straw type of thing much like the 103 win 1993 Giants missing the playoffs was the last straw before the introduction of the Wild Card

lol seriously...there would have been a sh!tstorm if the Indians had won Game 7 this year, baseball actually avoided the home team with the worse record winning a Game 7 in the 'this time it counts' era other than the Cardinals/Rangers - and a couple of Game 7's actually had the road team winning it like the Giants in KC.  And having the series on the road actually benefitted the Cubs in that Schwarber played an extra game.  Still it's about time baseball got out of the stone age and finally determined home field by (gasp!) best record.  What a freaking novel concept.

It's also good that DL stints are reduced to ten days, might help us in situations where we usually find our hands tied with maybesorta injuries.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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nmigliore    4

I'm not at all surprised teams like Granderson more. Their remaining contracts are close to a wash (1/13 for Bruce, 1/16 for Granderson) and it's really not even close to who has performed better over the last 2 seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9892,4747

Teams are smart and see Bruce for what he is: a one-dimensional player whose a big negative in the field and has sucked at the plate in 2.5 out of the last 3 seasons. Granderson is at least a capable corner outfielder defensively, who can be plugged in CF in a pinch, and comes with a solid floor at the plate due to his walk/power combo. It also doesn't hurt that he's a major clubhouse presence guy (yeah, I said it).

That doesn't mean the Mets won't be able to trade Bruce; I can pretty easily see some AL team wanting to plug their OF/DH hole while not committing or yielding much in return, but that's just it - the Mets won't be getting much of anything in return, it'll be a pure salary dump.

Edited by nmigliore

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Yeah, I think it's about getting Bruce's coin off the books, nothing more...which is fine.  Still sucks that the Mets gave up Herrera for him, but I think that says just as much about what Sandy thought of Herrera at that point as it did about anything else.  Not a strong AAA season for him at all, especially in the PCL. 

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'7'    567

I was thinking Bruce may be a good fit (short term fit) for the Yankees with that short porch. Not sure who we'd want back in return from them.

Last dealt with them in 2014 when we traded Gonzalez Germen for cash. But before 2014 there was a 10 year period of no transactions between the franchises.

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8 minutes ago, '7' said:

I was thinking Bruce may be a good fit (short term fit) for the Yankees with that short porch. Not sure who we'd want back in return from them.

Last dealt with them in 2014 when we traded Gonzalez Germen for cash. But before 2014 there was a 10 year period of no transactions between the franchises.

I remember Tim Burke for Lee Guetterman, way back when.  Frank Tanana for some minor leaguer (Kenny Greer?  I think he pitched one inning with the Mets.)  Didn't the Mets trade Al Leiter to the Yanks at the very end?  That's all I've got off the top of my head. 

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'7'    567
14 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I remember Tim Burke for Lee Guetterman, way back when.  Frank Tanana for some minor leaguer (Kenny Greer?  I think he pitched one inning with the Mets.)  Didn't the Mets trade Al Leiter to the Yanks at the very end?  That's all I've got off the top of my head. 

Leiter started and finished his career with short, forgettable (and terrible) Yankee stints. It was the Marlins though who dealt him to NYY.

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NJDevs4978    218

I remember the Mets trading Benitez to the Yankees lol, that's the only semi-significant deal I ever remember between the two teams.

In current news, the Mets bring back Rene Rivera on a $1.75 million deal.  So guess the catcher situation isn't changing much atm.

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d'Arnaud is being given one more chance...I think it's one too many, but that's how the Mets roll.  I'm guessing this will be his last season here, assuming he even gets through it.  Even now I still think he'll be a pretty good hitter, but the Mets can bring in all of the catching instructors that they want...Travis will NEVER be anything more than a liability behind the plate.  End of story.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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nmigliore    4

Speaking of catchers... the D-Backs shockingly non-tendered catcher Welington Castillo. I'd be all over him if I were Sandy but I bet they won't be ("we're content with d'Arnaud/Rivera!"). Surprised they couldn't trade him, he definitely had some value.

Edited by nmigliore

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1 hour ago, nmigliore said:

Speaking of catchers... the D-Backs shockingly non-tendered catcher Welington Castillo. I'd be all over him if I were Sandy but I bet they won't be ("we're content with d'Arnaud/Rivera!"). Surprised they couldn't trade him, he definitely had some value.

A little more about Castillo...I'll admit it, I've never heard of him. 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13832618/welington-castillo-mike-hazen-non-tender-diamondbacks

Nothing great by any stretch, and has never played more than 113 games in any given season.  Apparently he's a lousy framer if this article is to be believed, but has some pop.  Unfortunately, though he's interesting (mostly by virtue of d'Arnaud being so meh), he seems like exactly the kind of hitter that I'd like Sandy to start avoiding:  the low BA, occasional power, high-K type. 

But considering what the Mets currently have behind the plate, I guess I can't make that compelling of a case as to why this guy shouldn't be on Sandy's radar.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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NJDevs4978    218

FWIW sounds like the Nats are really close on Sale, apparently Giolito and their five-tool outfield prospect Robles are both on the table.

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