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'7'

New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

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I know that you already know this '7', but the above doesn't mean he still won't get a lengthy suspension though.  And I hate to say it, but based on how his wife later "explained" some of the evidence...none of us know what really happened of course (with either party), but a lot of what she said sounds fishy and reeks of covering up.   

Really hope that there's no more incidents between them.   

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Can't see this happening, but FWIW, it's gotten multiple mentions:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mets-reportedly-reach-out-to-pirates-for-andrew-mccutchen/ar-BBxlCjn

Just the fact that the Pirates are actively shopping him is a little unnerving...but if the Mets could ever get pre-2016 McCutchen, man would that ever be an upgrade.

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Considering his age and past season, McCutchen worries me a bit for a guy that is going to cost a lot, but there's no doubting he would help alleviate our current roster issues - 1) you're getting a real CF, 2) you're helping clear the corner OF logjam since Conforto would certainly be a part of the pieces going back to Pittsburgh, and 3) although not as critical as the first two, you're getting less lefty-heavy. You still have to trade Bruce in a separate move to complete the overhaul, but as I've said before, I don't think that'll be too difficult as long as we have low (aka realistic) expectations of what he's bringing back. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Wow...based on Kristie Ackert's article in the Daily News, re:  the many red flags with McCutchen, I'd probably have to take a pass.  I didn't realize how much his all-around play had declined last season.  Defensive metrics were awful.

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It is kind of odd to see McCutchen have that kind of season at 29 (he didn't turn 30 until October). My question is was he nursing non publicized nagging injuries all year that he can come back from...or is this a permanent slip into the abyss. It seems like a slow decline commenced after 2013 where he was a remarkable 8.2 war player. Then it slipped it 6.4...then 4.8...then -0.7.

Kind of reminds me of Vlad Guerrero in 2003, where his WAR was cut in half and he missed 50 games. Mets didn't take that chance on him and it bit them.

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16 minutes ago, '7' said:

It is kind of odd to see McCutchen have that kind of season at 29 (he didn't turn 30 until October). My question is was he nursing non publicized nagging injuries all year that he can come back from...or is this a permanent slip into the abyss. It seems like a slow decline commenced after 2013 where he was a remarkable 8.2 war player. Then it slipped it 6.4...then 4.8...then -0.7.

Kind of reminds me of Vlad Guerrero in 2003, where his WAR was cut in half and he missed 50 games. Mets didn't take that chance on him and it bit them.

In fairness, in 2014, he put up his second-highest OB+SLG, at .952...some kind of decline should've been expected for 2015, but at least it wasn't a sharp one (.889, still terrific).  And he finished up 2015 pretty consistently after a slow start...on May 13 of that season, his OB+SLG was just .650. 

2016 is such an outlier season for him...what scares me is how many of his metrics took a hit...almost like someone else was masquerading as him last season.  Sometimes guys do lose it that fast, for whatever the reasons.  Depending on who would be going back to Pittsburgh, it might not that bad of a risk...Mets could let him walk after 2017 if he's turning in a repeat performance of 2016.  But I get the feeling the Mets are going to need ALL of their starting pitching depth...I know you have to give to get, but giving up either Gsellman or Lugo (even if I'm not a big believer in Lugo long-term) makes me a little nervous. 

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Well the unfair thing about looking at McCutchen's WAR totals the last handful of years is that virtually nobody can maintain 7- and 8-WAR paces season after season (unless you're Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw). He was still an elite player in 2014 and 2015 and his batting numbers were pretty consistent in those years (he actually had a higher wRC+ in 2014 than 2013).

Last season his defense basically crashed and burned while the bat fell off in every category - the normally-elite BABIP dropped, strikeouts up, power and walks down. He only stole 6 bases as well, a career-low. The core batting numbers just smell fluky to me and I think he bounces back there; maybe not to 2013-2015 levels, but still really good. The defense and base-stealing, I'd be less certain. He is 30 years old after all and there were signs in 2014 and 2015 that he was declining in those areas. 

Steamer projects him for .283/.378/.470 (129 wRC+) with < 10 stolen bases and poor defense again; that seems about right to me, although I think I'd take the over on the bat. Anyway, that's still enough to make him a 3.5 WAR player; not elite, but still quite good.

Edited by nmigliore

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I'd take that Steamer slash.  The poor D could be rough, but provided Lagares can stay healthy for five minutes, at least the Mets would have a solid defensive replacement for late innings. 

I'd still be very nervous about bringing him in here. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Also we probably should take into consideration that the Mets may still be scalded dogs after the Jason Bay and Michael Cuddyer disasters. Though who the heck could predict that kind of dropoff with Bay...that's bad luck if anything.

I don't think they'll make a move on him...I think they'll preserve the pitching and hope Conforto takes a big step forward this season. Despite some incredible struggles at time he still has 24 career home runs thus far at about 500 career ab's including postseason plus 54 walks drawn. That's pretty darn good. All at 23 or younger.

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Yeah I don't think the Mets need to "force" themselves to get McCutchen. I have a feeling they'll move Bruce, go with the current group, and reevaluate the situation in June and July. By then, they'll have a better grasp on Conforto as starter, how Granderson's aging body is holding up in CF, etc. I still don't find that ideal but you could certainly argue it's better than going for broke with McCutchen, who is obviously going to cost a lot and has some questions hanging over his head. 

Edited by nmigliore

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Not much going on (uncreative Sandy needs to realize that teams aren't going to give him much for Bruce), other than a contract-that's-not-really-a-contract for Mejia, and nine players up for arbitration:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-jenrry-mejia-agree-contract-receive-article-1.2943248

The New York Mets and Jenrry Mejia agreed to a one-year, $1,976,000 contract on Tuesday, even though the suspended pitcher will never see the money.

Mejia was handed a lifetime ban from baseball last year for failing a third test under the major league drug program. But he is still on the Mets roster and, because he technically has been in the majors for four years, was up for arbitration.

The Mets cut the maximum of 20 percent from his 2016 salary, $2.47, which he also did not receive a dollar of.

----------------------------------

Nine Mets remain eligible for arbitration and are set to exchange proposed salaries with the team Friday: pitchers Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zach Wheeler, Addison Reed and Josh Edgin; first baseman Lucas Duda; catcher Travis d’Arnaud; and infielder Wilmer Flores.

Interesting names, considering how many are coming off injures (Wheeler as we all know has now missed two full seasons) and underperformance.  I hate hate HATE that Duda is still here, but as has been said many times, the franchise will dole out endless chances. 

 

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http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/now-managing-in-mexico-wally-backman-claims-the-mets-are-blackballing-him/

Wally Backman (who will now manage in Mexico) is basically accusing Sandy Alderson of blackballing him.

On one hand, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a couple of potentially interested franchises contacted Sandy to get some background on Wally, and Sandy didn't have the most flattering things to say.  We know the drill with Sandy:  he likes his managers to be puppets, which is how a mediocre dolt like Terry Collins gets to stick around as long as he has.  He doesn't want anyone being outspoken or fiery.  Wally couldn't be less of what Sandy wants in his managers.

That being said, Sandy not heartily recommending Wally for a job doesn't equate to active blackballing, though it wouldn't surprise me that, if Sandy had some negative thoughts on Wally that he shared with certain parties, that word may have gotten around.  But unfortunately Wally seems oblivious to the fact that he DOES carry his fair share of baggage here...forget the domestic abuse allegation for a second, only because we've seen guys guilty of it get second chances. 

I see two problems with Wally here, that would potentially scare off suitors: 

1) The Leathersich incident.  That one still hasn't been fully explained, but the fact is that Wally, for reasons only known to him, decided to abuse left-handed reliever Leathersich to the tune of 57 pitches in an outing when he clearly didn't have it.  Though Leathersich has well-known control issues, he did manage to make it to the majors in 2015, and in that short sample showed some signs that he might one day figure it out; anyway, shortly after that 57-pitch appearance, he needed Tommy John, and is now in the Cubs' system attempting a comeback (he made 26 appearances in various levels of the Cubs' minor league system last season).  But the point of the story:  can anyone blame organizations for being wary that Wally (known for his short fuse and loose cannon personality) might do this with one of their prized prospects one day?  I think his handling of Leathersich hurt Wally more than he realizes...and that has nothing to do with Sandy.  That's on WALLY.

2) His own quotes.  Wally sounds kooky with his "conspiracy against me" stuff...even if there's the slightest level of truth to it, it still sounds like sour grapes and bitterness at best, and too wacky at worst...and like the article says, by trashing Sandy (and the Mets by proxy), he's not making himself any more attractive to other organizations.  They're probably thinking "This guy's just more trouble than he's worth...do we really need this?"  Wally's also no kid...he's now 57 years old...maybe a bit older than a number of lower-level minor league managers?  Maybe just too much of a throwback for most current GMs and team presidents?  And of course, there's the South Georgia Peanuts documentary that he did...it's plenty entertaining, though probably not the best audition tape for another job.

Basically, I think Wally's just gotta shut his trap about Sandy and the Mets, do his job in Mexico, keep a low profile, and hope he somehow gets a shot with another MLB organization in time.  But I also think he's gotta realize he's probably never doing anything at the major-league level...managing, coaching, or otherwise.  May not be 100% fair, but he hasn't helped his own cause either. 

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On 1/11/2017 at 7:18 AM, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Not much going on (uncreative Sandy needs to realize that teams aren't going to give him much for Bruce), other than a contract-that's-not-really-a-contract for Mejia, and nine players up for arbitration:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-jenrry-mejia-agree-contract-receive-article-1.2943248

The New York Mets and Jenrry Mejia agreed to a one-year, $1,976,000 contract on Tuesday, even though the suspended pitcher will never see the money.

Mejia was handed a lifetime ban from baseball last year for failing a third test under the major league drug program. But he is still on the Mets roster and, because he technically has been in the majors for four years, was up for arbitration.

The Mets cut the maximum of 20 percent from his 2016 salary, $2.47, which he also did not receive a dollar of.

----------------------------------

Nine Mets remain eligible for arbitration and are set to exchange proposed salaries with the team Friday: pitchers Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zach Wheeler, Addison Reed and Josh Edgin; first baseman Lucas Duda; catcher Travis d’Arnaud; and infielder Wilmer Flores.

Interesting names, considering how many are coming off injures (Wheeler as we all know has now missed two full seasons) and underperformance.  I hate hate HATE that Duda is still here, but as has been said many times, the franchise will dole out endless chances. 

 

I'm not quite so bearish on Duda...but a back injury for a 30+ year old player (and a big heavy guy) is very troubling. If his power gets sapped then he becomes an enormous negative. I've always liked his ability to draw walks and whatnot but a Duda decline will look very very ugly. 

I'm very shocked Bruce has not been moved yet. Perhaps Sandy is being stubborn, or he's just going to carry this on into spring training and hope Bruce has a good month and raises his value a bit. Or others are hit with injuries and under performance and the demand for Bruce increases.

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7 minutes ago, '7' said:

I'm not quite so bearish on Duda...but a back injury for a 30+ year old player (and a big heavy guy) is very troubling. If his power gets sapped then he becomes an enormous negative. I've always liked his ability to draw walks and whatnot but a Duda decline will look very very ugly. 

I'm very shocked Bruce has not been moved yet. Perhaps Sandy is being stubborn, or he's just going to carry this on into spring training and hope Bruce has a good month and raises his value a bit. Or others are hit with injuries and under performance and the demand for Bruce increases.

It was a short sample last season, but the slash across the board was well down from his much more tolerable 2014 and 2015 seasons...and better pitching eats him for breakfast, lunch, and dinner...to the tune of Duda getting K'd and looking badly overmatched.  I'm just not looking forward to seeing more of the same, and people coming back with "but he hit 30 HR in 2015!"  He and Wright are going to be very hard to take in 2017. 

Problem with Sandy not doing anything with Bruce is that Bruce's presence is stopping him from making other moves...and of course, stiffs like d'Arnaud are getting yet another opportunity here. 

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Regarding Wright in 2017, I have a feeling if he turns in a pathetic Spring Training that he may retire before the end of the season. It takes him about twice as long to prepare for games, his range in the field is bad...I just have a hunch if he's out there in Florida and the writing is on the wall, he'll bow out. This has not been an easy couple of years for him.

 

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19 minutes ago, '7' said:

Regarding Wright in 2017, I have a feeling if he turns in a pathetic Spring Training that he may retire before the end of the season. It takes him about twice as long to prepare for games, his range in the field is bad...I just have a hunch if he's out there in Florida and the writing is on the wall, he'll bow out. This has not been an easy couple of years for him.

 

I hope so.  I give him all the credit in the world for not giving up and for trying his hardest, but it's painful to watch him now (in more ways than one).  It's one thing to be maddeningly unclutch and to be an almost automatic K in big spots, but he just kills this team when he's out there...the balance of the last three seasons have been torturous to witness.  The organization and Wright will both hopefully come to the same conclusion if Wright has a terrible spring...I think he's done all he can do to contribute, and there's nothing left that will help.

---------------------------------------------------

Wheeler and Mets settle in arbitration:  1 year, $800k 

I'm guessing we'll see some more settlements today.

---------------------------------------------------

Thirteen prospects invited to spring:

http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/213299490/mets-invite-dominic-smith-to-spring-training/

NEW YORK -- First baseman Dominic Smith, the Mets' second-ranked prospect, highlights a list of 13 non-roster players the Mets have invited to big league Spring Training.

Also on the list: pitchers Chasen Bradford, P.J. Conlon, Kevin McGowan, David Roseboom, Paul Sewald, Corey Taylor and Logan Taylor; catcher Xorge Carrillo; infielders Phillip Evans and Luis Guillorme (Mets' No. 20 prospect); and outfielders Champ Stuart and Travis Taijeron.

Would be interesting to see what kind of shot Smith might get if Duda got hurt in spring...going from AA to the majors is a lot to ask of a 21-year-old kid though...even if he lit it up in spring, the Mets will probably want him to get at least a half-season's worth of ABs in AAA.  Sandy would probably try to get by with a Loney-type for a month or two...and there's of course the Super Two crap and other stuff to consider with Smith. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Dom Smith is intriguing. I actually saw him play in a AA game and he hit some mammoth foul shots. He swings a big heavy bat that sounds like a thunderclap when he hits it. Really shocked it hasn't translated into better power numbers (yet). But his eye at the plate is very good. But yea totally agree, he needs to go to AAA...I think he'll do fine there.

To me the myth of David Wright died all the way back in 2008...that late season K vs. the Cubs with the bases loaded. Never trusted him in a big spot since.

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42 minutes ago, '7' said:

Dom Smith is intriguing. I actually saw him play in a AA game and he hit some mammoth foul shots. He swings a big heavy bat that sounds like a thunderclap when he hits it. Really shocked it hasn't translated into better power numbers (yet). But his eye at the plate is very good. But yea totally agree, he needs to go to AAA...I think he'll do fine there.

To me the myth of David Wright died all the way back in 2008...that late season K vs. the Cubs with the bases loaded. Never trusted him in a big spot since.

I can't wait to see Smith.  Love what he potentially brings...a plate skillset that Sandy seems to be incapable of bringing in.  Just going to have to wait a bit.

Yeah, even during Wright's better seasons past 2008, you just never felt like he was ever going to get it done when you needed him to.  He got that rep for a reason.  Wright has his fanboys who will give him a lot of passes, but it's time to move on.  It's sucks that he's a rickety 34 now, but he is.  He definitely should go into the Met Hall of Fame almost immediately though...I'm all for him getting his day ASAP.  As crazy as he made me the past few years as a player, as a person he's been nothing but a class act and a stand-up guy. 

 

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Sandy taking care of some potential arbitration candidates, in addition to Wheeler:

Lucas Duda (bleech):  1 year, $7.25 million

Addison Reed:  1 year, $7.75 million 

Jeurys Familia:  1 year, $7.425 million

Josh Edgin:  no detailed info, but is said to have settled

Travis d'Arnaud:  1 year, $1.875 million

So looks like deGrom, Harvey, and Flores are all going to arbitration. 

deGrom and Harvey settle.  Flores the only Met going to arbitration...Flores wants $2.2 million, Mets offering $1.8 million.  

 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Ugh:

http://nypost.com/2017/01/24/mets-now-plan-to-keep-jay-bruce-as-everyday-right-fielder/

So basically, it's pretty much status quo for this team.  The lineup remains chock full of the low-BA, meh-OB%, pretty good HR, high-K hitters that Sandy just can't seem to steer clear of, ever...another year of an often frustrating and hard-to-watch offense is coming.  Dominic Smith (whose desperately needed skillset will be a wonderful breath of fresh air here) can't through AAA fast enough.  Just like I was worried about, the offseason seemed to be about keeping Cespedes in the fold, and not much else, other than hanging on to Neil Walker for another year.  Still time before spring training is truly underway, but a very disappointing and uncreative offseason for Sandy (I'm not that surprised, really).

When all of these guys are actually healthy enough to take the field, here's who will be in the lineup most often (in no particular order):

Reyes, Walker, Sad Sack (Wright), Cespedes, Duda, Granderson, Bruce, d'Arnaud

Flores as primary insurance for when Walker, Sad Sack, and/or Duda inevitably miss time with injuries. 

They'll have their moments (especially against lousy arms) and they'll have their occasional "fatten up" game, but does that group scare ANYONE?!

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On 1/25/2017 at 7:22 AM, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Ugh:

http://nypost.com/2017/01/24/mets-now-plan-to-keep-jay-bruce-as-everyday-right-fielder/

So basically, it's pretty much status quo for this team.  The lineup remains chock full of the low-BA, meh-OB%, pretty good HR, high-K hitters that Sandy just can't seem to steer clear of, ever...another year of an often frustrating and hard-to-watch offense is coming.  Dominic Smith (whose desperately needed skillset will be a wonderful breath of fresh air here) can't through AAA fast enough.  Just like I was worried about, the offseason seemed to be about keeping Cespedes in the fold, and not much else, other than hanging on to Neil Walker for another year.  Still time before spring training is truly underway, but a very disappointing and uncreative offseason for Sandy (I'm not that surprised, really).

When all of these guys are actually healthy enough to take the field, here's who will be in the lineup most often (in no particular order):

Reyes, Walker, Sad Sack (Wright), Cespedes, Duda, Granderson, Bruce, d'Arnaud

Flores as primary insurance for when Walker, Sad Sack, and/or Duda inevitably miss time with injuries. 

They'll have their moments (especially against lousy arms) and they'll have their occasional "fatten up" game, but does that group scare ANYONE?!

Just like Ces seemed like the perfect fit from the getgo, that's how much Bruce seemed to be overwhelmed and just not cut out for NY.

Keith Law has recently ranked Amed Rosario as the 3rd ranked prospect in all of baseball. Admittedly I'm not an eagle eye follower of the minors and prospects...I check in and knew Rosario was good...never knew he was supposedly this good

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/02/yankees_gleyber_torres_vs_mets_amed_rosario_keith.html

 

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Apparently Salas is back on a one-year deal.  Good, now bring back Blevins and at least the bullpen will be okay.

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4 hours ago, '7' said:

Just like Ces seemed like the perfect fit from the getgo, that's how much Bruce seemed to be overwhelmed and just not cut out for NY.

Keith Law has recently ranked Amed Rosario as the 3rd ranked prospect in all of baseball. Admittedly I'm not an eagle eye follower of the minors and prospects...I check in and knew Rosario was good...never knew he was supposedly this good

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/02/yankees_gleyber_torres_vs_mets_amed_rosario_keith.html

 

I've been following him for a while.  Last year was a huge leap forward for him.  He could be in AAA by season's end for sure, based on his AA numbers.  Guy really shredded it, especially early on after his promotion from A+.  

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