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The Rise of Damon Severson


Derlique

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This year has been disappointing on a multitude of levels but there has been a major bright spot; Damon Severson. The Devils needed this guy to take a step forward and he has. Forget about his -24. It's not fault Schneider hasnt been able to stop a beach ball when he's been on the ice and the Devils are shooting an unsustainably low ~6% when he's on the ice. He has been the Devils best shot suppressor, after Merrill (and Santini if you want to count him). AND, he has been a better shot suppressor than Larsson has been in Edmonton this year.  He ranks 31st in p/60 among dman, and has been very good on the PP. Not to mention he's the second best possession dman after Auvitu who faces Charmin soft competition. The Devils are lucky Edmonton wanted Larsson over him, because he is easily the superior player. 

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I was with you until the last sentence.  Schneider's play and Larsson being gone has a lot bigger correlation than you seem to be giving credit for.  

Merrill has been much better as of late and Santini has had an extremely impressive start to his Devils career.  Hopefully all three turn into long term fixtures on the D - Severson 1st pair, Santini 2nd pair and Merrill 3rd pair.    

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Just now, mfitz804 said:

Severson has been the best defenseman on an abysmal defense. Its like eating the least bruised banana. He's played well but I don't think he's exactly "risen" anywhere. 

I think I would still do Severson for Hall over Larsson for Hall. 

No, he is legit playing well when compared to the rest of the league , too. He's very good

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Severson's numbers since 11/17 (30 GP):  0 G, 9 A, -24 (and his overall season -24 is the worst on the Devils by a country mile)

No, those numbers don't tell the whole story, but if he had started the season that way, there's no thread about him being a bright spot...if anything, the good start feels a bit flukey.

I hope he pans out, but this point it feels very up-in-the-air that that's going to happen. 

 

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2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Other than the P/60 stat, which says nothing about his defensive contribution, what are you basing that opinion on?

Shot suppression: he ranks 25th of 146th for dmen who have played at least 500 ES mins.

I also happen to think the best defense is a good offense and Severson pushes the Devils forward in that regard. Larsson hasnt shown any effect on possession

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I'll agree that he definitely has improved, at least in terms of last year when he was a big disappointment.  I think he started off so hot and was contributing offensively that we all just thought he was immediately going to be the next Niedermayer -- a guy who was not only really good and reliable on defense, but very gift with speed and some moves, which made him a rare and great d-man overall.  Severson has that potential I believe, but he's not going to get there overnight.  It's true too, like others have said, that he's also on a team with guys who are playing bad defense this year, which by comparison makes him look not so terrible.  

If I had to give him a grade this season, independent of any of his prior seasons, and not against his peers, just solely his own performance, I'd say it's a B-.  His real selling point for me so far this season is that he doesn't seem to be prone to making too many mistakes, at least not for someone that's still young an inexperienced.  He's gonna have a learning curve, but I can see him becoming very reliable at the blue line, and if he can find that scoring touch that we saw him break out with in his rookie year, I think that's what will get him back in the conversation of potentially being a guy like Scott Niedermayer.  

Time will tell.

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2 hours ago, SMantzas said:

Shot suppression: he ranks 25th of 146th for dmen who have played at least 500 ES mins.

I also happen to think the best defense is a good offense and Severson pushes the Devils forward in that regard. Larsson hasnt shown any effect on possession

Is shot suppression for an individual player something that you can even measure with that kind of confidence?

And maybe its the coaching, but being associated with this team's powerplay this season is not something you want to put on your resume.

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9 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Is shot suppression for an individual player something that you can even measure with that kind of confidence?

And maybe its the coaching, but being associated with this team's powerplay this season is not something you want to put on your resume.

Well you can compare it to others on the team which I think is helpful. There are hundreds of events to compare it to, then say, +/- which only illustrates a couple dozen or so events. 

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Im pretty high on Severson to be honest. I think there's a lot of good stuff we've seen from his game to suggest he will become a really good NHLer. Besides the +/- statistic I think this has been a good season for Damon so far, as he's shown a lot of improvement from last season. His in zone defense is much better then last season in my opinion, and he's either passed or is around the numbers he put up last year in 27 more games. Last season in 72 games he put up 21 points, 5 powerplay points, 66 hits, and 41 blocks.

Already this season in 45 games he's put up 21 points, 9 powerplay points, 41 hits, and 43 blocks. The hits will probably be around the same come 72 games but the rest of these statistics will most likely be career highs for him, which I think is what every devil fan wants to see from him - steady improvement. 

I think Severson has the potential to be a very very good offensive defenseman in this league. If he hits around 35-40 points this season (which I think is possible) I think everyone should be happy with that number. That would actually be the third highest amount of points a Devils defenseman tallied in a season since the 05 lockout - Zidlicky and Rafalski being the two that broke 40 points 

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3 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I don't think a -24 means nothing, either. That's pretty horrendous.  

Especially when no one else on the team is worse than a -12. 

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I liked Severson form the start. Just like any other young D man, they just need a bunch of games before you can really see what you have.  Now, I do think he needs better defensive vision in his end end, more head on a swivel type awareness. I would also like to see him to increase his physical play a tad. The coaches should let him carry the puck more or give him more of a green light to jump in. On a team that struggles offensively, you need that help. It kind of reminds me the Cup Run year, I spoke to Parise and he said that the lack of support out the back was really hurting there O. Surely, enough, a few weeks later, the D was (buzz word alert) activating more often and they became a much harder team to play against. 

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47 minutes ago, msweet said:

Severson continues to make risky plays and when his shot is not going in or he is not assisting it's hard to swallow.

The -24 is eye-opening. Verdict: Undecided.

Yup, he tries to thread the needle in our end, aggressively pinches on an island, and boldly stick handles in front of our net.. but he wins a good amount of his battles behind our net and comes out with it under extreme pressure.  he just needs to be more consistent.. the skills and size are there

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2 hours ago, NJDfan1711 said:

I'll agree that he definitely has improved, at least in terms of last year when he was a big disappointment.  I think he started off so hot and was contributing offensively that we all just thought he was immediately going to be the next Niedermayer -- a guy who was not only really good and reliable on defense, but very gift with speed and some moves, which made him a rare and great d-man overall.   He's gonna have a learning curve, but I can see him becoming very reliable at the blue line, and if he can find that scoring touch that we saw him break out with in his rookie year, I think that's what will get him back in the conversation of potentially being a guy like Scott Niedermayer.  

Time will tell.

I cut this up a little, but this is just not fair. I don't think ANYONE really mentioned Niedermayer in any way as a comparison or potential for Severson. Scott Niedermayer is one of the 10 best defensemen to ever play the game and might be the best skater in NHL history. add the fact that he could play in all situations and play enormous minutes with almost no dropoff in ability along with the fact that his mistakes were so rare and putting the two names in the same sentence other than to say that their uniform numbers both start with "2" is just not fair.

 

1 hour ago, msweet said:

Severson continues to make risky plays and when his shot is not going in or he is not assisting it's hard to swallow.

The -24 is eye-opening. Verdict: Undecided.

this is spot on. there are things to like about severson's game and he's certainly better and more consistent than last year. if he continues his rate of improvement at the current pace, he'll be a solid #2 d. but the risks in his game show up often enough that they can't be ignored. you can absolutely win with a guy like severson being an important part of your d-core. I just don't think you can when he's the MOST important part of it. at least not yet.

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The only thing I am concerned about with Severson is that the big minus number could be affecting his confidence.  Other than that, I've got no problem.  He's got to work a bit on his net front coverage and there's obviously other things he could do better, but he's probably this team's best defenseman already.

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I felt pretty confident last night in the final minute(s) when Damon and Merrill were out there together.  Im not too concerned about his confidence yet, if anything, he has an overabundance of it.. his eyes are sometimes too big for his skates... he needs to give some of it to merrill.. both of these kids play their man very aggressively now, especially along the boards.. they're going for the take-away, and not afraid to get juked out because they both have recovery quickness

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Can't help but feel this is a similar situation to Larsson a few years initial his Devils career. 

You can see he has the talent and the skill, that doesn't just evaporate. Its all part of learning the game. I think he will come good. 

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