Daniel Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 On 8/10/2017 at 11:32 AM, Marshall said: Here's the final part of the write-up: https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/28/testing-and-final-remarks/#more-12725 You can backtrack from there. It's comprehensive and exhausting, yes, but it has to be. It's not the Silver Bullet or Everything - but it's better than doing the model in your head (ie looking at a bunch of stats and weighing them yourself). When I look at that write-up (the AATJ one), what I take from that is that NJ needs a real top tier performer, either on D or F and a bounce-back season from Schneider to really have a shot. Honestly, I think a better model is simply looking at where the Devils finished last year and having watched close to eighty percent of their games. I'll take it on faith that GAR might reveal truths that are counter-intuitive, but I find it very hard to believe that Lovejoy is in the top half of all NHL defensemen. Otherwise, it's pretty obvious that the Devils will win significantly more games if Schneider returns to form, unless you're one of those blowhards on NHL Network. And they could sniff the playoffs and maybe even sneak in if Nico is good enough to be a Calder candidate or win it outright, Zacha takes a huge step forward and if they could somehow land another legit defensemen, but that ship seems to have sailed. I guess Shero could try and get something very good from Detroit to relieve them of their cap problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas0nMacIsaac Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 NJ absolutely can. If Cory Schneider has a .929 sv% season NJ has a pretty good chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masked Fan Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharifijanov2099 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 16 hours ago, Jas0nMacIsaac said: NJ absolutely can. If Cory Schneider has a .929 sv% season NJ has a pretty good chance. 929 seems like a pretty lofty expectation. His save percentages in NJ are: 921, 925, 924, 908. Career average is 922. I think a best case scenario for this season is 920 given the turd defense currently slated to skate in front of him. I also think it's possible (anything is, right?) that he comes in at 918 or thereabouts, again, noting the current make up of the d-core. That said, I'm of course hoping he plays on his head and totally redeems himself [insert D&D gif]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MantaRay Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Not with this current defense. Cory will be burnt out again by Thanksgiving. Another 35 win season for the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleBallofHate Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 I thought I'd put this gem here - it was retweeted by the Devils Insiders (who do great podcasts IMHO): Igor Eronko Verified account @IgorEronko Sergei Kalinin says SKA would beat both #Marlies and #NJDevils #KHL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleBallofHate Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Also, I don't like to be negative (Little Ball of Hate was one of Verbeek's nicknames, not mine!) so I usually don't say anything too negative BUT no. No playoffs. Not without Trav half the year. I hope I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 2 hours ago, LittleBallofHate said: Also, I don't like to be negative (Little Ball of Hate was one of Verbeek's nicknames, not mine!) so I usually don't say anything too negative BUT no. No playoffs. Not without Trav half the year. I hope I'm wrong. I'm sorry, but Travis Zajac is not the difference between a playoff team and a non-playoff team... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 5 hours ago, mfitz804 said: I'm sorry, but Travis Zajac is not the difference between a playoff team and a non-playoff team... For this group he might very well be. If nothing else, the odds take a huge tumble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Marshall said: For this group he might very well be. If nothing else, the odds take a huge tumble. It puts us further away, maybe. But it's not like I was looking at this roster and saying "we're in", and now I've changed my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevsMan84 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 24 minutes ago, mfitz804 said: It puts us further away, maybe. But it's not like I was looking at this roster and saying "we're in", and now I've changed my mind. I think losing him while not the complete end of the world is a bigger loss than what you are suggesting. He was a nice two way forward who helped out quite a bit in our own end. Considering our D is a dumpster fire, this will certainly hurt us even more in that department. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharifijanov2099 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 (edited) Great teams can shoulder the loss of an important player - and Zajac certainly is that for NJ - and fragile teams lacking depth cannot. When a 40 point 2-way center is a devastating loss to your club, you know your club simply isn't there yet. This injury makes the improbable idea of making the playoffs even more improbable. Anything can happen, as they say, but barring a major trade where we fleece another club, I think it's a relatively safe bet to say this current roster, playing in a stacked division, will be a long shot to make the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong. Edited August 18, 2017 by Sharifijanov2099 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 Zajac is the second best forward on the team and easily the best defensive one. This team cant survive his loss unless Nico comes in and drops 50-60 pts, which is way too much to expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 4 hours ago, DevsMan84 said: I think losing him while not the complete end of the world is a bigger loss than what you are suggesting. He was a nice two way forward who helped out quite a bit in our own end. Considering our D is a dumpster fire, this will certainly hurt us even more in that department. Are you suggesting that he WAS the difference between making the playoffs or not, because all I suggested was that he wasn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevsMan84 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mfitz804 said: Are you suggesting that he WAS the difference between making the playoffs or not, because all I suggested was that he wasn't. I wasn't suggesting that. Like others have said it just made an already tough job even tougher. On the bright side this should help our chances on getting a good draft pick next year. Bad news is that we might have to sit through months of crap hockey before we get there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 hour ago, DevsMan84 said: I wasn't suggesting that. Like others have said it just made an already tough job even tougher. On the bright side this should help our chances on getting a good draft pick next year. Bad news is that we might have to sit through months of crap hockey before we get there. Yeah and this time in ugly jerseys!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharifijanov2099 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 17 hours ago, Martyisth3b3st said: Ya know, you've said that now about forty times. Am I wrong? The Zajac injury was news which impacted this thread. I don't understand the critique - on a message board forum no less - but okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.