Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Daniel

Find the dumb GM - Marc Bergevin edition

Recommended Posts

Just now, Chuck the Duck said:

Hard pass.  No way I do that deal.  Weber is on the decline and the wrong side of 30.  Galchenyuk I would take a look at, but the price is probably going to be too steep for a guy that thinks he's a center, but really is a wing and pouts when they play him there.

Honestly, I really hope Shero sticks with the rebuilding plan and doesn't do anything crazy trying to get this team in the playoffs this season.  We need to look to the long term with this rebuild, and giving up top prospects and picks for guys over 30 doesn't make a lot of sense based upon where we are at in the process.

 

What I think will happen:  Devils will make a serious run at John Carlson in the offseason and end up getting him. 

My absolute pipe dream of what could happen (but almost definitely won't, as I can't see the Sens not doing every last thing in their power to keep Karlsson):  The Devils pass on Carlson and roll the dice on that "other" Karlsson (Erik Karlsson) somehow making it to UFA after the 2018-19 season.  I don't kid myself for a second here...the only way that I could see this happening is if Karlsson decided that he 100% wasn't coming back to the Sens, and the Devils traded for him sometime next year (it would cost a ton obviously), and then signed him before he ever went UFA.  No, won't ever happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

The only asset we should be trading Zacha for is a defenseman, not another struggling forward.

I don't disagree, but Zacha doesn't get you much on defense on his own at this point.

Personally, I think Zacha is well on his way to busting into a 3rd/4th line player.  Hope I'm wrong, will happily eat crow down the line.

But in my mind, if you can get another similarly talented young forward for him at this point.. I'd do it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Marshall said:

Nonsense. Just don't trade for one who likely will have fallen off in two years and is signed for 7 more or however many years it is. IF the Devils would trade for an average #1D (so the 15.5th best dman in the league) I'd be very confident in calling them a playoff team. Then you can add in around that player, which is very different from what we're doing now which is adding depth to depth. If Weber had three years left on his deal or something like that, it'd be a worthwhile discussion to have, because then he couldn't completely cripple the team from 2022-2026.

Yours is the nonsense. So, to be clear right now we are not a contender or a playoff team? But we shouldn't trade for Shea Weber because by the time we are a contender he'll be bad? But we should trade for an average 1D (which is worse than the, as you claim, not-elite Weber) because then we will be a playoff team? What in god's name are you going on about?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Marshall said:

Nonsense. Just don't trade for one who likely will have fallen off in two years and is signed for 7 more or however many years it is. IF the Devils would trade for an average #1D (so the 15.5th best dman in the league) I'd be very confident in calling them a playoff team. Then you can add in around that player, which is very different from what we're doing now which is adding depth to depth. If Weber had three years left on his deal or something like that, it'd be a worthwhile discussion to have, because then he couldn't completely cripple the team from 2022-2026.

The contract doesn't frighten me that much.  I don't have the inclination to look at when the real salary starts to decline and some phantom injury might arise, but whatever the case, unless the Devils are going to try and go all in for Carlson or some other big free agent, they can afford to take on at least one albatross of a contract that isn't really that much of albatross if we're talking about a cap of around $82 million in the next couple of years.

The idea here is a fleece job.  And I think Weber helps the Devils get into the playoffs this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Jesus Christ your valuation of Shea Weber and his monstrosity of a contract is insanely out of touch.

I was going to say the same thing.  While I'd certainly like Weber, him being 32 is a bit scary, and I agree that, age or not, his contract is probably too high/too long.  I don't think he'd be worth Zacha+Henrique and something else.  Maybe Zacha, and pick, and something, but who knows.  Unless we could "fleece" him for something less, I'm honestly really not that interested in Weber at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

I was going to say the same thing.  While I'd certainly like Weber, him being 32 is a bit scary, and I agree that, age or not, his contract is probably too high/too long.  I don't think he'd be worth Zacha+Henrique and something else.  Maybe Zacha, and pick, and something, but who knows.  Unless we could "fleece" him for something less, I'm honestly really not that interested in Weber at the moment.

It's not your underestimation of Weber's value that's the problem here, it's your overestimation of our players' value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

It's not your underestimation of Weber's value that's the problem here, it's your overestimation of our players' value.

Stop doubling down -- you're so very wrong. 

Shea Weber costs 7.9m against the cap until he is forty years old. He was traded for Subban because the Habs were ready to move on from PK, and it was widely regarded as an abysmally bad trade. A 20 year old former top-10 pick, a 27 year old 30-goal scorer on a great contract, and a first round pick from a team who just picked 1st overall is GROSSLY overpaying for an elite defenseman with an enormous contract on the wrong side of 30.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Stop doubling down -- you're so very wrong. 

Shea Weber costs 7.9m against the cap until he is forty years old. He was traded for Subban because the Habs were ready to move on from PK, and it was widely regarded as an abysmally bad trade. A 20 year old former top-10 pick, a 27 year old 30-goal scorer on a great contract, and a first round pick from a team who just picked 1st overall is GROSSLY overpaying for an elite defenseman with an enormous contract on the wrong side of 30.  

You're seeing things through shades of red and black. Rather than say,  an unproven, twenty year-old who can't get it going and a 27 year old forward who's on pace for 16 goals this year (but scored 30 once), you phrased it as you did.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

You're seeing things through shades of red and black. Rather than say,  an unproven, twenty year-old who can't get it going and a 27 year old forward who's on pace for 16 goals this year (but scored 30 once), you phrased it as you did.

 

Again, yikes. Most twenty-year-olds don't "have it going" immediately in the NHL, and if they do - they're going nowhere. Zacha's current value is lower than last year, sure, but it's not nonexistent. Adam Henrique's value is far greater than you're apparently giving it credit for. You conveniently left out the whole "first round pick" thing, because it's still as absurd as when you first said it.

I love Shea Weber. I think Shea Weber is one of the best defenseman in the NHL. I think Shea Weber is a hall of famer if he ever gets his name on the cup. I also think Shea Weber is 32. I think Shea Weber is signed until he is 40. I think the value of Shea Weber on a contract that expires in 3 years may be close to what you're suggesting. I think the fact that Shea Weber's contract takes him through two more presidential elections negates a ton of that value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Again, yikes. Most twenty-year-olds don't "have it going" immediately in the NHL, and if they do - they're going nowhere. Zacha's current value is lower than last year, sure, but it's not nonexistent. Adam Henrique's value is far greater than you're apparently giving it credit for. You conveniently left out the whole "first round pick" thing, because it's still as absurd as when you first said it.

I love Shea Weber. I think Shea Weber is one of the best defenseman in the NHL. I think Shea Weber is a hall of famer if he ever gets his name on the cup. I also think Shea Weber is 32. I think Shea Weber is signed until he is 40. I think the value of Shea Weber on a contract that expires in 3 years may be close to what you're suggesting. I think the fact that Shea Weber's contract takes him through two more presidential elections negates a ton of that value. 

You're arguing against yourself. I'm not saying Zacha is a bust. I'm saying that he isn't going to fetch THAT much on the trade market as of yet. Henrique doesn't have the value of a perennial 30-goal scorer either. I'm not saying you can't get anything for them, but I don't think you'd get Shea Weber for them, even with his, albeit unavoidable, disastrous contract. You have to give to get. It's possible with a first round pick those two can bring in a top D-man but I don't know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

You're arguing against yourself. I'm not saying Zacha is a bust. I'm saying that he isn't going to fetch THAT much on the trade market as of yet. Henrique doesn't have the value of a perennial 30-goal scorer either. I'm not saying you can't get anything for them, but I don't think you'd get Shea Weber for them, even with his, albeit unavoidable, disastrous contract. You have to give to get. It's possible with a first round pick those two can bring in a top D-man but I don't know.

I'm arguing with you. You said that Zacha+Henrique+ 1st isn't enough for Weber. I said that's stupid. You said I'm overvaluing our players. I said you're undervaluing the monstrosity of a contract he has. 

Now that we're all caught up, it's fine to agree to disagree. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing that I think some people are overlooking since we're so used to this team being bad: just because there's cap space now does not mean it will still be there when the team is a legit contender. You have to imagine Hall's going to get a raise, as will MoJo if all goes well. If we're talking two years down the road, Zajac will still be getting paid nearly $6M. Plus we will need extra space for signing Nico once his ELC is done (the same goes for McLeod, Bratt, and Zacha if any/all of these guys become important pieces for the future, although their contracts will expire at different times). Then imagine one of the D in the pipeline turns out to be a stud, but there won't be the space to keep him around long term because we traded for a declining Shea Weber when we were a borderline playoff team.

A Weber trade is simply not a good fit. Not for NJ, not for MTL. Marshall mentioned that the Devils are a playoff team with an average #1 D, which I think a lot of us can agree with. But there's a difference between being a playoff team and being a legitimate Cup contender, so there wasn't anything contradictory about what he said. I think you only make a move for Weber if you honestly believe you have a good shot at winning it all. Do you really want to trade for a player to just get you into the playoffs this year? Isn't the goal of this rebuild that Shero has done to win a Cup once these younger guys start to enter their prime? Adding an awful contract like Weber's is the type of Lou move that this board would flip out about. You really can't have it both ways. 

MITB has said this a few times already, but it seemed that the majority of the board thought Larsson was going to be a third pairing defenseman at best at Zacha's age. Zacha does not have a third line ceiling, just because he is struggling so far this season. We saw him beat out MoJo and Henrique for the top center job during the preseason. We saw him look better than all the other young players trying to prove themselves in the preseason. He also was very good in the final 10 or so games last season. I'm not saying he'll definitely reach his potential, but there's something far better than a third liner there. The argument that D take longer to develop than forwards is not completely black and white. 

Edited by nessus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

I'm arguing with you. You said that Zacha+Henrique+ 1st isn't enough for Weber. I said that's stupid. You said I'm overvaluing our players. I said you're undervaluing the monstrosity of a contract he has. 

Now that we're all caught up, it's fine to agree to disagree. 

I was more referring to your statements that "Zacha's value isn't nonexistent" or "Shea Weber has a bad contract" with my "you're arguing against yourself" statement.

You were certainly overvaluing our players and seeing them through a biased lens (especially with how you marketed them as "top-10 1st rounder and 30-goal scorer"). Which is typical of fans of any team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You never know really.  Lots of trades went down where it made no sense but still happened like the Erat / Forsberg deal.

or a 9th overall pick in 2016 without a single NHL game under his belt was traded for a 3rd overall pick from 2013 coming off a 53 pts season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Neb00rs said:

Yours is the nonsense. So, to be clear right now we are not a contender or a playoff team? But we shouldn't trade for Shea Weber because by the time we are a contender he'll be bad? But we should trade for an average 1D (which is worse than the, as you claim, not-elite Weber) because then we will be a playoff team? What in god's name are you going on about?

In your mind he still is what he was 5 years ago and in my mind he isn't anymore.

12 hours ago, Daniel said:

The contract doesn't frighten me that much.  I don't have the inclination to look at when the real salary starts to decline and some phantom injury might arise, but whatever the case, unless the Devils are going to try and go all in for Carlson or some other big free agent, they can afford to take on at least one albatross of a contract that isn't really that much of albatross if we're talking about a cap of around $82 million in the next couple of years.

The idea here is a fleece job.  And I think Weber helps the Devils get into the playoffs this year. 

2022 it drops to 3 million, from 2023 3 years at 1 million. And maybe they put in a loophole or do something in the next CBA to help teams get out from these contracts somehow, but I don't like to bet on those things. He certainly won't retire - 1m per year won't make a difference at that point to him but why walk away from it if you don't have to? IF he retires teams will be on the hook for cap recapture and if he ever wants to work in the league I can't imagine that'll help his reputation around the league. He might get a Hossa-like injury, but even then he only goes on LTIR, which isn't without its problems. If NJ ever becomes a high payroll team it'll be very difficult with a non-playing Weber on the books. For starters they can't go above the cap in the summer by more than 10%, Weber's deal included and by day 1 of the season they have to be below the cap with his salary included before putting him on LTIR. 

If this team was where I think it can be in 2020, which is a team capable of winning playoff rounds, then yeah, I could see swinging for the fences and making a trade for Weber. But where they are now, I'm not so sure I like the deal. And that's before even discussing the potential cost of getting him.

 

Edited by Marshall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although I'm not a huge fan of Carlson and think he is much closer to a second pair guy than top, having him, Severson and Santini on the right side of the d would be awesome. Now if we could just get a ld to play in front of Greene. Imagine:

Klefbom-Carlson

Greene -Severson

Butcher-Santini

My deal would be- Zacha,  Henrique and a 2019 first for Klefbom next summer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Sign in to follow this  

×