Lets go Mets!!!

[NJDevs4978]

http://www.bbcarchive.org.uk/pmwiki/pub/lo...inking_ship.jpg

Right now, this team is a bunch of dogs. Even D-Wright's now stinking it up.

They deserve to blow the division quite honestly. They might be able to start beating up on the Nats and Marlins and still win it but my god, a must-win game and you're pitching Brian Lawrence and Aaron Sele as your first two pitchers?! Willie's losing it.

Edited September 18, 2007 by Hasan4978

[nmigliore]

Yes this is terrible.. Phillies are gonna win, Mets will lose this game.. God damn Lawrence.. he impressed me with his nice control and pitching the first few innings then in the 4th he blew it.. oh I just thought: we have Pelfrey pitching this series too.. wow.. Its like Willie wants to blow the lead. And Im sick of Aaron Sele! He only pitched a few good relief innings and that was way back in the beginning of the year! It was all over for him when he gave up like 3-4 runs against the Pirates in that 9th inning..

[NJDevs4978]

Mets' last two games - 10 errors and 9 runs scored. It is ass-kicking time now!!!

Willie is just so frigging lost. Friday he doesn't squeeze with Castillo, the best bunter in the league in a tie game with the Phillies' defense playing back because he said 'Jimy Williams was watching him like a hawk'. SO? Saturday he throws Feliciano out for a second inning after he'd thrown 20 pitches in the previous inning and against Aaron Rowand, a righty power hitter no less! Yesterday he brings in his son (Mota) after Beltran's HR actually gave the team a little momentum and Mota of course gave it right back. And today he doesn't even entertain the notion of starting Humber, instead going with the hopeless Brian Lawrence and the even more hopeless Aaron Sele to back him up. What's Sele's WHIP around two?

Willie's far from the only person associated with the Mets that needs his head examined though. Professor Pop-Up has slowly regressed this season, at first it was not running out grounders, then it was his plate discipline and now he can't even play defense. Not to mention his selfish play trying to steal third with two out, two on and Wright at the plate ran the Mets out of a big inning Saturday. For a gold-glove CF'er Beltran has now cost the Mets two games by running in on balls that went over his head, both against the Phillies. Castillo was brought in for his defense and his fundamentals. So what does he do, Saturday he loses track of the outs in the FIRST INNING and gets caught off second on Wright's liner, Sunday he botches an easy DP grounder in that five-run inning. LoDuca gets himself thrown out of the Friday game and then DiFelice comes in for him and drops a pop-up And the team as a whole is absolutely choking.

Especially this pitching, oyiee. Mota, Sele and Lawrence are useless beings. Omar needs to forcibly remove these people from Willie, they're like his drugs. Willie needs to grow a pair and try a kid like Humber instead of going with the same old crappy vets. Look across town what happened when THEY did this! He just can't do it. He buries Feliciano and Sosa when they're pitching well while giving chance after chance to Mota and Sele, and now Feliciano and Sosa are almost as useless because of it.

[nmigliore]

Wow AGAIN.. ANOTHER LEAD BLOWN TO THE WORST TEAM IN THE DIVISION.. come on Maine!! Hes just too inconsistent man.. 7-3 lead lost in an inning.. after all the Mets have gone through already.. wow he has to blow it (and so damn early too.. what what is, the 5th?) Now its 9-7 Nats in the 7th.. even if the Mets end up winning this game somehow (which i doubt), this is ridiculous.. and now El Duque might not even get another a start until the post-season.. yikes.. this is really not good..

Edited September 19, 2007 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

Frigging Maine. He's had over a 6 ERA since the All-Star break, I guess we'll find out next year whether that's just him pitching more innings than in the past or the league catching up to him. But he is mentally fragile, after the first couple of innings he looked nasty. Then after giving up the second HR he lost all confidence again.

THIS is the team we let back into the race, a frigging Phillies team that almost BLEW AN ELEVEN-RUN LEAD last night! And yet their bullpen looks like the '96 Yankees against us

Manny Acta doing his best to stick it to the Mets, was he Willie's brain last year or something?! Probably not but man, it seems like Willie's regressed as a manager if anything although he was never really under any pressure his first two years here and now he is big-time.

Typical Reyes, another 0-3 night with the obligatory pop-up.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Hasan4978

[Jerrydevil]

It's unbelievable what's happening now.

[NJDevs4978]

I like this post on a Mets board:

OJ's in jail and the Mets suck, this is the mid 90's all over again

[Devilish34]

Our B.P. suxs but are bats are still swinging.

[overtime98]

The Mets really suck right now, espaically thier bullpen!!! they are about to CHOKE big time! they better wake up. I hate philly and dont need them winning the division.

[Devils Pride 26]

Willie should have been gone for some time now.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Here's what I wrote about last night's game on another site:

Great job last night Willie...I especially liked that move you made in the fifth inning, where you stood there with that stupid look on your face while everyone else but you knew your starter had absolutely nothing. I guess it was more important to you to try to let an undeserving John Maine get the win than it was to try to end the free-fall your team finds itself in. Oh yeah...and thanks so much for starting Mr. Batting Practice himself the day before too. As much as I hate the Yankees, year after year Joe Torre shows everyone what he's made of by keeping his team together and finding ways to get it done when it looks like things couldn't possibly get any worse.

Oh well...since there's no big names out there, I guess we're stuck with you for the forseeable future. Guess all we can do is hope next year is like last year's regular season, because it's now abundantly clear that dealing with the slightest bit of adversity (dating back to last year's playoffs) ain't your strong suit.

--------------

I've also come to some other conclusions about some of these Mets:

However many wins John Maine accumulates this year, that will be his career high. Any talk about him being an ace someday can pretty much be forgotten. I don't think he's quite as bad as he's been this second half, but I definitely don't think he's anywhere near as good as he showed in the first half either. I forget who said it, but some commentator admitted that he wasn't sure how Maine was having so much success early on since he didn't appear to have particularly great stuff. Well, it's pretty obvious the league has either caught up to him, or his luck has simply run out. I think he can be a decent #4 or #5 starter who can be pencilled in for 10 wins and an ERA in the 4.25-to-4.75 range, but we just witnessed the overall best year he's going to have in the majors...he's not going to get any better.

As for Perez, what you see it what you get. He's got great stuff, but his mechanics are terrible. He'll tease everyone with occasional sustained brillance, but he'll always be mentally fragile and will never be able to maintain consistency over the course of a full season. Petersen did an amazing job rescuing Perez from the scrap heap, but I think he's squeezed all he can out of Perez. He'll never be anything more than a solid #3 (12-14 wins, 3.50-4.00 ERA) or a shaky #2.

Beltran is the king of cosmetic stats. Yes, he's cracked 100 RBI again, but this guy never fills me up with confidence when he comes up to the plate...most of the time I'll see him coming up with runners on in a key spot, and pretty much every time I think to myself "Here comes nothing." Sure enough, he either strikes out or comes up empty. Sorry, but if I'm an opposing team and I see him at the plate in a big spot, he doesn't scare me at all. He's not a bad player, but he's clearly not the kind of player that you build a lineup around...he disappoints far more that he delivers.

[NJDevs4978]

I especially liked that move you made in the fifth inning, where you stood there with that stupid look on your face while everyone else but you knew your starter had absolutely nothing. I guess it was more important to you to try to let an undeserving John Maine get the win than it was to try to end the free-fall your team finds itself in.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Hasan4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I have to say I pretty much agreed with all of your post, good way of putting it in regards to Beltran. Although he did hit a big HR on Sunday that our four-letter words in the pen (Mota and Sosa) gave right back with an assist from Castillo.

About this particular point, this is one of my main gripes with Willie. As a poster on another site said, he gets too concerned with looking for innings from pitchers instead of outs. Hell he should be quicker on the trigger finger in this month if any month, not only with expanded rosters but also because the games are so important. But starting Lawrence and leaving Pelfrey till tonight just to give Pedro another day of rest showed the overconfidence that's permeated the Mets all year long.

Oh, it's not like Beltran's going to fail in every big spot. He's got too much talent not to come through once in a while. But here's how I feel about Beltran: He's the kind of guy who shows up to the ballpark and doesn't really care all that much whether his team wins or loses, not the way guys like David Wright and Paul LoDuca do. I don't think he cares about greatness or reaching his full potential and is perfectly content with being pretty good to good. If you ever confronted him on that, he'll spit his stats out at you and say something along the lines of "What's the problem, I hit .280, I cracked 30 HRs and 100 RBI, I can't do it all." In a way he's not entirely wrong, but I just don't think winning and losing affects him at all...as soon as the game's over, he just showers, dresses, leaves the ballpark and goes on his merry way...no matter how bad the loss, I don't think he ever loses a minute's sleep over it. For some reason I see Beltran and think he's got a "so what?" mentality...I just don't see the passion, fire and drive like I do with David Wright, a guy who clearly wants to get better at all facets of his game.

Another guy who's really regressed is Reyes. I know he can be an electrifying runner on the basepaths, but the stolen bases have really overshadowed what has been a bad year for Reyes, especially in the second half. This guy never drives in a run anymore, and reminds of the Reyes of two years ago (far too aggressive at the plate, not doing whatever he can to get on base). Last year he drove in 80 runs and batted .300...he might get his average back up to .300 if he gets really hot, but his power numbers are way down from last year (10 HR, 50 RBI). Maybe he's been reading too many articles about how observers think he's going to be the next great player and is trying to do too much as a result.

And at this point, with the team free-falling, Willie's gotta do whatever it takes to win that game last night. Screw Maine and trying to get him through 5 innings to get him his 15th win...last night's game was a must-have. Like I posted, every single person except Willie knew that Maine had absolutely zilch on the mound last night.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Top 5, 4-3 Mets.. not exactly great pitching from Pelfrey IMO he seems to constantly allow a base runner..

[NJDevs4978]

Finally moved the damn magic number!

For once the maligned pen held up, Sosa with five clutch outs and Heilman and Wagner finished it off. Pelfrey was butt-ugly but three straight wins isn't bad considering where he started the season and the fact he hasn't had a full year in the bigs yet. Reyes even had a couple of hits, how about that

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Finally!

Nice efforts from David Wright, Jose Reyes (it's about friggin' time Jose!) and Mr. 23-Game-Hitting-Streak Moises Alou. And in what comes as a huge surprise, Carlos "Where's My Paycheck?" Beltran, in one of the most important games of the year for these Mets, goes 0-5. Captain Clutch comes through again...useless piece of sh!t.

[nmigliore]

Alou is clearly the top hitter for the Mets right now.. Maybe Willie should exercise the idea of moving Alou up in the line-up, especially if Carlos B has another bad outing vs the Fish tonight

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Alou is clearly the top hitter for the Mets right now.. Maybe Willie should exercise the idea of moving Alou up in the line-up, especially if Carlos B has another bad outing vs the Fish tonight

I agree...but Willie's not one to think outside the box. He'll feed you the "Carlos is our cleanup hitter, he'll get it going :blahblah: " company line. I'm sure Carlos' salary has nothing to do with his being entrenched in the #4 spot right now. (riiiiiight) Just be prepared for a big strikeout with runners on the corners with the Mets down by a pair...because that's what Carlos does best.

Edited September 20, 2007 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Devils731]

The fact that Alou has hit great the past 20 games doesn't mean anything when it comes to hitting in tonight's game. I know it makes sense to say it does because he is hot or in a groove but there has never been any evidence that being hot or cold going into a game has any affect on how a player does in the current game. Nobody does this but the efficient offense is actually lined up using the highest OPS+(not regular OPS) down to the player with the lowest.

Edit: Now that isn't to say lineups shouldn't change, pitching matchups matter and also there can be times when you re-evaluate how good hitters are. Delgado would be a good example of a hitter falling in the lineup not because he is cold but just because he isn't the hitter he once was anymore but that takes time to evaluate.

Edited September 20, 2007 by Devils731

[nmigliore]

The fact that Alou has hit great the past 20 games doesn't mean anything when it comes to hitting in tonight's game. I know it makes sense to say it does because he is hot or in a groove but there has never been any evidence that being hot or cold going into a game has any affect on how a player does in the current game.

So that means line-ups are pointless and it doesn't matter if the pitcher bats first or reyes bats 8th.. right.. and its not like Alou is just getting 1-hit a game, hes getting 2-3 hits a game so hes definitely on a hot streak..

[Devils731]

Hot and cold streaks only make sense in retrospect, there hasn't been any way of measuring a players "hotness" and showing that to have any affect on the players performance going forward.

I didn't say lineups made no difference, but they don't make an enormous difference. The players in the lineup are much more important than the way they're arranged. If you want an optimal lineup though you use OPS+ to order everyone which would put almost every pitcher 9th in the lineup. This will make the most efficient use of your outs with some consideration to the players power.

[nmigliore]

I disagree, having a certain batting order means everything.. take the Mets for instance - reyes leads off, say he gets a single.. He'll end up stealing 2nd with the very patient Castillo at bat 80% of the time, or Castillo will lay down and bunt and get a single out of it.. Just right there - first 2 batters and you can easily have a runner at 3rd by the time the 3rd batter is up.

[Devils731]

Having a certain batting order means fairly little. You gave Reyes a base hit and he reaches base about 36% of the time so 2/3 of the time you're situation already can't happen. Castillo is a little under 1/3 so 2/3 of the time he makes an out as well. Reyes only steals a base a little under 80% of the time. So yes you've come up with a scenario that looks good but what if Beltran leads off the game with a home run, is that not a better scenario? Designing your team around situations that barely happen probably isn't the best way to design a team. Reyes leads off once a game for sure, that is it, any other team he is just the random rolling of the lineup like every other player.

Anyway, here using the formula (OBP*1.4)+SLG is the Mets most efficient lineup based on this years stats. This is the lineup that will make the least outs while still account for power.

Wright

Alou

Beltran

Reyes

Green

Delgado

Castillo

Lo Duca

The key is you put the guys who are the least likely to get out at the top of your lineup. The more at bats your team takes over the course of a game the more likely they are to score runs. There is a slight adjustment due to power but that only cause Beltran to move up 1 spot and Castillo to drop a bunch.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Devils731...I think you're trying to reinvent the wheel here. There's a reason that ideal batting orders (for years) have speed and OB% guys on top, power guys who hit well with runners on in the middle, and guys on the bottom who aren't as good as the 1-6 guys, but can pitch in on occasion and clear the pitcher's spot so the pitcher's not leading off the following inning.

Why in God's name would you want David Wright, a great situational hitter who's batting .309 with runners in scoring position, coming up after the seventh, eighth, and ninth (usually the pitcher) place hitters? You basically want a guy who hits great with runners on base to come up in his first at-bat with no one on base, and then come up in subsequent at-bats with guys batting ahead of him who aren't known for their ability to get on base? You've pretty much guaranteed that he's going to come up to the plate with at least one out (save for the first inning), because he'll always have the pitcher (likely for at least two of his ABs) hitting ahead of him. And then you want Jose Reyes, a guy who has far less power and is hitting just .271 with RISP, to bat CLEANUP?! And he'll have guys like Alou (not known for his speed) and Beltran (who doesn't steal bases like he used to) blocking him from doing what he does best: taking extra bases and stealing. That's part of the problem with your lineup...you're not accounting for situational hitting ability and the fact that some players run a whole lot faster on the basepaths than others.

Other problems:

Other than David Wright's ABs being wasted by having him come to the plate with far less chances to drive in runs, by putting Moises Alou behind him, you're begging for lots of DPs. David has decent speed, but any infield ground ball that is hit with any velocity is sure to be a DP. This pretty much ensures that any inning the pitcher comes up first (usually an automatic out) with David reaching first base and Alou hitting an infield grounder will amount to a 1-2-3 inning even though a runner reached base. That decreases the staters's pitch count, making it less likely that the starter will give way to the bullpen. As we know, with so many "major league" bullpens being weak spots, and teams being more hung up on pitch counts than they've ever been, the objective of today's lineups is to drive up the SP's pitch count, get him out of the game by the 5th or 6th inning, and then go to work on the bullpen.

I know you're trying to take a radical approach to building a lineup, and I can appreciate the fact that you're trying to think outside the box, but most fans and baseball minds would laugh that lineup out of the building.

Edited September 20, 2007 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Yeah players get used to hitting in their spots, like Reyes always leading off.. Castillo is a perfect 2nd batter as well, hes very smart and hes someone the Mets have been looking for all year really.. not only do him and Reyes do great together batting behind each other, but they make a great pairing in the infield, Castillo turns DPs SO well.. But thats sorta drifting off topic; Im just trying to say players are used to their spot in the lineup, especially with leadoff hitters like Reyes.. seeing him bat 4th (cleanup) as you have him really is just odd..