Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Devils Pride 26

New York Mets Thread

3,654 posts in this topic

wishful Yankee thinking? I couldn't care less how the Mets do, and having them do well actually is good for intra-city rivalry.

The problem with the Mets is that too much of their team are replacement level batters. Brian Schneider. Luis Castillo. These are not young players, and they're not particularly good players, and they're not going to get better. I don't see any mention of them in your post. Ryan Church is okay, probably a league-average right fielder, but he's not getting better, and he sucks against lefties.

The Yankees went through a phase like this, and now I guess it's the Mets turn. Sure, the superstars are there, but around the edges, the Mets are getting terrible, and there's no remedy in sight. They will likely sign some free agent dross to try to compensate, but so many of the pitchers who hit free agency are just mediocre - and when you pay guys like Carlos Silva 10 million dollars, it impedes your team from actually improving at other positions. Oliver Perez, if he has another excellent season, will command Barry Zito money on the open market. Would that be 40 million for the top of the rotation? Then Maine hits free agency soon-ish too. And I haven't mentioned the bullpen, which features an aging closer, and few young arms to improve the situation. Duaner Sanchez is a hope and a prayer, and Joe Smith can't get left-handed batters out. Feliciano's awesome, but Randolph will continue to use him wrong. Schoenweis is terrible.

The Mets could win the World Series in 2008, so all this pessimism is slightly unjustified. Nonetheless, their 2009 and beyond looks mediocre - Omar Minaya hasn't shown he's particularly adept at signing free agents, and that's how the Mets are going to have to rebuild themselves.

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The tentative lineup is:

Batting Order-

SS Jose Reyes

2B Jose Castillo

CF Carlos Beltran

3B David Wright

1B Carlos Delgado

LF Moises Alou

RF Ryan Church

C Brian Schneider

If Alou rapidly declines, or Church doesn't perform well, Chavez gets right back in the lineup, which is kind of what I want to happen anyway. Gotay will hopefully progress to be an everyday player by 2009, as well. The current lineup currently has 3 almost guaranteed allstars, Delgado who may or may not have a bounceback season, and two of (Alou/Church/Chavez) which I will be happy with. Castillo is obviously replaceable but again, not all that bad. Schneider sucks, but whatever. It's not an all-star lineup 1-9, but I'm happy with it. The only batter in the lineup who will probably show a decline from last season to this season, or this season to next season, is Alou (since delgado already sucks) but I believe that Chavez should be an everyday player anyway.

The pitching may be a problem, but I think that Omar is prepared to overpay to keep the guys here. Wags still has a few years left in him, Sanchez will be back, and there's a few guys in the minors, along with Smith, who will hopefully progress nicely. I understand your pitching worries but complaining about the starting lineup doesn't make much sense.

Willie blew a lot more than 2 or 3 games this season. He has shown total incompetence concerning his bullpen.

Edited by metallidevils

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is very difficult for a manager to blow that many games. A particular pitcher giving up a run in a certain situation is not much more likely than any other, provided they're both major league level pitchers. Furthermore, no manager has shown a sustainable ability to win one-run games, suggesting that most managerial moves are merely based on chance.

Endy Chavez is not a starting left fielder. He's not going to hit .300 with a .431 slugging again, as he did in 2006. He is a replacement-level player - if the Mets play him, that will make 3 replacement level players in their lineup, with Castillo and Schneider.

I don't see where Gotay fits in, given that Luis Castillo was signed for 4 years.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Delgado has a 46% chance of losing 20% of his performance next season - and you are right, he's already not good. Moises Alou has a similar percentage.

My complaint is not about 2008, where the Mets are undoubtedly the strongest team in the division and thus have the best chance of reaching the World Series. Beyond 2008, the Mets look like they are spiraling towards mediocrity - free agency just does not offer up big-name players to sign every year, the Mets are not likely to start taking huge luxury tax hits like the Yankees, and the Mets have an almost totally bare cupboard at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact that the Mets have a replacement 2B and catcher is never going to be a make or break.

Also I honestly don't know why you're being so hard on Castillo. Having a decently speedy contact hitter behind Reyes isn't going to be a bad thing - Lo Duca was pretty successful there himself. There's worse second basemen out there.

There's also no indication that Chavez will decline that much from 2006. His slugging was down last year, but his average was on par, and he did only play 70 games.

Delgado already sucks, and him sucking more won't make a difference. Pulling a "46% chance of losing 20% performance" out of your ass is uncalled for here. I know you're a fan of sabermetrics, but let's get real.

Your assumptions are essentially that Beltran, Reyes, and Wright have all plateaued, everyone who can possibly detereorate will, we won't be able to hold on to any potential free agents, and there won't be any good free agents to sign.

Every team has a doomsday scenario in which they will 'spiral towards mediocrity'. I could probably take a few minutes and come up with one for the Yankees, but it's not necessary. Nothing you've stated so far has even remotely convinced myself or anyone else here that the Mets' last chance to win a WS is in 2008. They aren't going to be a case of the Devils, who seemingly this year must be burying money or throwing it off rooftops, because I have no idea where it all went. Obviously the Mets were run terribly in the 90s, but at least in the foreseeable future I don't see a team with a New York-like payroll being straight up uncompetitive.

Edited by metallidevils

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The fact that the Mets have a replacement 2B and catcher is never going to be a make or break.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are we really gonna complain about how bad the mets are gonna be in 3 years?

a single pitch hasn't even been thrown yet on the season.

I like their chances to win the NL pennett. Especially since the Marlins and Nationals are so awful the Mets and Phillies could both make the postseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jesus, the entire league would have been playoff contenders if they didn't have a single 'average' player in their lineup. Are you kidding me? Because of the fact that the Mets have an average 2B and catcher, two of the most shallow conditions, they're not going to make the playoffs in two years? Also, why not just next year? Because Castillo is over 30 he'll definitely get worse from 2008-2009?

Your basic assumption seems to be that the Mets:

1. Have more impact players that will leave after 2008		 a. Either through retirement i.e. Pedro, which probably won't happen, and El Duque, or		 b. Will not be able to afford keeping everyone					 1. which does not make much sense, because with a budget of over 100 million and a supposedly mediocre team, why wouldn't they be able to overspend?2. Mets have holes in their lineup.		a. The Mets have a slightly above average (but well placed in the lineup) second basemen, who is overpaid, but again, does that really matter here? Also, what is an 'out machine'? Someone who makes more outs than everyone else? I fail to see how a .300 hitter is an out machine.		b. Scheider, yeah, he sucks. Not every team has a great catcher. 		c. Delgado, couldn't imagine him being worse than last year, if he sticks around in 2009. If he doesn't stick around in 09 it probably means that he sucked again, which certainly makes him replaceable. We obviously missed the playoffs because of the September collapse but for the most part of the season still did well enough with him sucking in the lineup.

Also, now you're saying that you DIDN'T say that they'd be uncompetitive...I'm not sure how that's any different from 'spiraling into mediocrity'.

I can't imagine any real fan of baseball throwing VORP into a discussion. Leave the sabermetrics out of it, and watch a few Mets games if you want to get a real feel of the team. Maybe you'd change your 'Pelfrey should be in the starting rotation!' stance a little.

Edited by metallidevils

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I can't imagine any real fan of baseball throwing VORP into a discussion. Leave the sabermetrics out of it, and watch a few Mets games if you want to get a real feel of the team. Maybe you'd change your 'Pelfrey should be in the starting rotation!' stance a little.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I can't imagine any real fan of baseball throwing VORP into a discussion. Leave the sabermetrics out of it, and watch a few Mets games if you want to get a real feel of the team. Maybe you'd change your 'Pelfrey should be in the starting rotation!' stance a little.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Endy Chavez next year should do something about like this(assuming 500 ABs)

.285 BA, .327 OBP, .394 SLG, .721 OPS with 4 HR, 32 BB, and 60 SO.

That doesn't kill you and his defense is very good so that helps out as well. All in all Chavez doesn't hurt the team but he doesn't help the team all that much either. All in all is Chavez is fine for a 4th OFer/defensive replacement who may see up to 50 games this season. Having a 2/3 to 1/3 mix of Alou and Chavez is still a positive for the team over the whole season. The question is will the Mets have Alou healthy when the playoffs start, if they get there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Endy Chavez next year should do something about like this(assuming 500 ABs)

.285 BA, .327 OBP, .394 SLG, .721 OPS with 4 HR, 32 BB, and 60 SO.

That doesn't kill you and his defense is very good so that helps out as well. All in all Chavez doesn't hurt the team but he doesn't help the team all that much either. All in all is Chavez is fine for a 4th OFer/defensive replacement who may see up to 50 games this season. Having a 2/3 to 1/3 mix of Alou and Chavez is still a positive for the team over the whole season. The question is will the Mets have Alou healthy when the playoffs start, if they get there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Chavez is a wonderful 4th outfielder and defensive replacement.

His PECOTA has his SLG in the .360s, however - I don't think his ISO power is enough to produce a .394 SLG with a .285 BA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
LOL. Discussion over. You win.

Sorry, Mets fans, for derailing this thread - but when someone who thinks Endy Chavez starting in left is a good thing for the Mets, and tells me to 'stick to hockey', I get a little worked up.

Edited by metallidevils

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Last season, the majority of Mets fans were calling for Chavez to start over Green. He's a fan favorite, plays hard, and yeah, I do like his output for the most part. You can tell me that his QWERTY or whatever isn't good enough to have a good stratomatic card or whater, but it really doesn't matter. He's a good 4th outfielder, and if Alou declines, which he probably will, I hope there's no hesitation to start him. He's maybe the Jay Pandalfo of the Devils, if you will.

You can also spit out all the acronyms you want; but Pelfrey still hasn't earned a spot on the starting day roster yet.

Edited by Triumph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Metalli, I know you're making fun of sabermetrics but you should really look into them. The more you explore them the more you learn about how the game works. Baseball is a game where the numbers tell almost the whole story so it is very effective to measure and predict by using past numbers. Things aren't perfect because it's still people playing the actual games but it's much more effective to add sabermetrics to your analyzing ability than to use only eyeballs and feelings. You will find that if you use sabermetrics that your ability to forecast and talk about players is much more effective, just as major league baseball front offices have found out.

As far as Green vs. Chavez. I could argue Chavez over Green due to defense but it was really a 6 or one half dozen situation. Their overall pacakage of effectiveness was about the same for both. Milledge probably would have been much better than both of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tri...with all due respect, maybe you should go to this thread to discuss YOUR team:

http://www.njdevs.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=35813

Seriously, what's the point of you posting in here, other than trying to piss off Mets fans? I think the thread author started the thread to get a discussion going among fellow Mets fans. What the hell do you care where the Mets are going to be in 2009 and beyond? Isn't there enough to discuss and worry about with the Yankees?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Mets fan I want to be able to discuss Yankees stuff too if there is something interesting going on since I follow both teams although I follow the Yankees specifically to root against them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Mets fan I want to be able to discuss Yankees stuff too if there is something interesting going on since I follow both teams although I follow the Yankees specifically to root against them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's thoughts like 'Spring starts determine who makes the roster' why I'm in either thread.

Teams have lost a lot of games by thinking 3 4 inning performances against minor league competition means we can throw 8 years of history out the window.

and I got antagonized right away. Also, Jorge Sosa's going to make the team - he was left off the original post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's thoughts like 'Spring starts determine who makes the roster' why I'm in either thread.

Teams have lost a lot of games by thinking 3 4 inning performances against minor league competition means we can throw 8 years of history out the window.

and I got antagonized right away. Also, Jorge Sosa's going to make the team - he was left off the original post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When spring training breaks, I will put the full roster up. The bullpen and bench were just whoever popped into my head.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pelfrey pitched a solid three innings today vs. the Braves. He could very well be the 5th starter in the rotation and move Hernandez to the bull pen. Mets beat the Braves today in 10 innings 3-2 for their third win in a row after starting the preseason 0-3. Mets are 3-3 in preseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pelfrey pitched a solid three innings today vs. the Braves. He could very well be the 5th starter in the rotation and move Hernandez to the bull pen. Mets beat the Braves today in 10 innings 3-2 for their third win in a row after starting the preseason 0-3. Mets are 3-3 in preseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well Pelfrey was great last spring though, didn't get him anywhere when he started 0-8 with an ERA of 6+ I hope he finally turned a corner with a couple of those September outings but that remains to be seen.

Pelfrey pitched a solid three innings today vs. the Braves. He could very well be the 5th starter in the rotation and move Hernandez to the bull pen.
Edited by Hasan4978

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im hoping Pelfrey makes the team. He knows what is expected from him, hell get it done. Maybe even pull even with his W-L if he has a good year, go 8-8, 9-9 or even 8-10 would be good from Pelfrey.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0