Prucenterrules

Official 2009 New York Mets Offseason Thread

3,132 posts in this topic

Haven't posted here in a bit, but the Mets brought in some guys on minor league deals, most notably Jake (Mike Jacobs) and Hisanori Takahashi (no, hes not the same Takahashi as last year, that was Ken, and they are unrelated, fwiw).

Jacobs is pretty bad; poor plate discipline, awful fielder at 1B, and has roughly been a replacement level player the past 3 seasons. Its actually kind of scary his highest win value in a single season was 2005 when he was worth +1.2 wins in only 112 PA. Crazy. Anyway, Jacobs will hit a few bombs in spring and then will likely be cut; I really don't think he is a serious threat to challenge Murphy for the 1B job and there is no room in AAA for him, I mean he might have an outside shot of winning a bench spot but I think the Mets would prefer a more versatile player like Catalanotto or even Chris Carter.

The Takahashi signing is a solid depth move. I do expect him to seriously fight for the #5 spot but I really hope it goes to Jon Niese. If that fails for Takahashi, then he might have a shot at winning the long-reliever role in the bullpen, though I think his value is a bit wasted there; let him pitch in AAA and call him up when we need an extra starter. Plus I believe Fernando Nieve is out of options, so he would seem like the favorite to get the last bullpen spot if he doesn't win the last rotation spot. Takahashi is a lefty but I if I remember reading correctly, lefties hit over .300 vs him last year in Japan, so its not like he would fit as a decent backup LOOGY to Feliciano.

Here is a good writeup about Takahashi by Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker: http://www.npbtracker.com/2009/11/hisanori-takahashi-from-30000-feet/#content , and Takahashi's stats from Japan: http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=htakahashi

Edited by nmigliore

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Haven't posted here in a bit, but the Mets brought in some guys on minor league deals, most notably Jake (Mike Jacobs) and Hisanori Takahashi (no, hes not the same Takahashi as last year, that was Ken, and they are unrelated, fwiw).

Jacobs is pretty bad; poor plate discipline, awful fielder at 1B, and has roughly been a replacement level player the past 3 seasons. Its actually kind of scary his highest win value in a single season was 2005 when he was worth +1.2 wins in only 112 PA. Crazy. Anyway, Jacobs will hit a few bombs in spring and then will likely be cut; I really don't think he is a serious threat to challenge Murphy for the 1B job and there is no room in AAA for him, I mean he might have an outside shot of winning a bench spot but I think the Mets would prefer a more versatile player like Catalanotto or even Chris Carter.

The Takahashi signing is a solid depth move. I do expect him to seriously fight for the #5 spot but I really hope it goes to Jon Niese. If that fails for Takahashi, then he might have a shot at winning the long-reliever role in the bullpen, though I think his value is a bit wasted there; let him pitch in AAA and call him up when we need an extra starter. Plus I believe Fernando Nieve is out of options, so he would seem like the favorite to get the last bullpen spot if he doesn't win the last rotation spot. Takahashi is a lefty but I if I remember reading correctly, lefties hit over .300 vs him last year in Japan, so its not like he would fit as a decent backup LOOGY to Feliciano.

Here is a good writeup about Takahashi by Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker: http://www.npbtracker.com/2009/11/hisanori-takahashi-from-30000-feet/#content , and Takahashi's stats from Japan: http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=htakahashi

Jacobs can pretty much only do one thing at this point in his career...hit the occasional home run against a righty pitcher. Why did we even bother with this guy?

Funny thing about Takahashi. He's a short (5'10) lefty who relies on the screwball, doesn't have much of a heater, and isn't all that proficient against lefty hitters. The Japanese John Franco?

With Maine and Ollie in the rotation, I want somebody who can at least eat up some innings in the #5 spot. Takahashi does not seem like that guy...I don't think anybody we have is like that.

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Well we don't have a guy that has consistently put up big innings year in and year out in the past, but I'd be quite comfortable with Jon Niese as the #5. At least with him there is good upside and the chance he pitches like a #3 starter rather than a fringy back of the rotation guy like Livan Hernandez.

Edited by nmigliore

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Per Ken Rosenthal, Mets sign catcher Rod Barajas, 1 year for $1M plus an 'easily attainable' $1M extra in incentives.

He isn't going to do much with the bat (likely a low average, sub-.300 OBP, perhaps 15+ HR) but he graded out as a very strong defensive catcher last year and I definitely prefer him to Omir Santos. Barajas and Blanco should make for a really nice defensive tandem and it will let Thole work on his defense in AAA.

Good deal.

Edited by nmigliore

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I know this is a little late, but I gotta give you credit nmig...no matter how hopeless this Met franchise seems when it comes to how it goes about its business, you don't let it sap your enthusiasm for baseball. You actually help to make me care about the upcoming season when I'm finding it hard to.

I used to get so excited when pitchers and catchers would report...even in the early 90s, Bobby Bonilla years. This year I'm so indifferent. I barely even scan the Met articles, when not so long ago I would read every last one. Keep up the great work and enthusiasm nmig, because we need it around here, and maybe it'll help guys like me and Hasan, because I think we've reached the point where we've almost had enough.

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I know this is a little late, but I gotta give you credit nmig...no matter how hopeless this Met franchise seems when it comes to how it goes about its business, you don't let it sap your enthusiasm for baseball. You actually help to make me care about the upcoming season when I'm finding it hard to.

I used to get so excited when pitchers and catchers would report...even in the early 90s, Bobby Bonilla years. This year I'm so indifferent. I barely even scan the Met articles, when not so long ago I would read every last one. Keep up the great work and enthusiasm nmig, because we need it around here, and maybe it'll help guys like me and Hasan, because I think we've reached the point where we've almost had enough.

Thanks CR. I'm just really excited for baseball again, no matter how good or bad the team may look.

As currently built, I will admit that I don't think this team is a contender unless we get very strong years from Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine, among others. I found this WAR projection chart at Amazin' Avenue (a few weeks old):

projections.png

84 wins seems like a decent projection to me, but I felt some of the projections were a little off, and so I made some changes and edited the chart. So first, the changes:

- I believe Maine and Perez will be worth more; I put Maine down for +2 and Perez for +1.5.

- For some reason the chart has Jon Niese for replacement level, which makes no sense; I would project him for +1.8 wins.

- With the addition of Barajas, you must replace him for Santos. CHONE has him at +1.5 and Fangraphs Fans have him at +0.6; I prefer to lean towards the CHONE projection but we'll call it even and put him at +1 win.

- I can't see Escobar, a reliever, being worth +1.5 wins, so subtract a full win from that. That gives you +0.5 for him.

- Santana's +3.8 WAR projection is very conservative, I would boost that by a full win to +4.8, which seems more realistic to me.

- I went with the averages for Murphy; CHONE has him at +0.7, Fangraphs' Fans have him at a more reasonable +1.6; I went with the in-between, so +1.

- I swapped out Fogg and Figueroa for Nieve and Parnell; Parnell is pretty much a lock to be in the bullpen and one of Figeuroa or Nieve, both whom are both out of options, will likely settle in as the long reliever (which is why I only put Nieve at 2 runs over replacement, though he could likely end up being worth more of course).

And so with those changes, my chart looks like this:

myprojections.png

Amazin' Avenue has us at ~84 wins, and with some of my changes I have us at ~88 wins. Not bad, definitely more than I would have thought off the top of my head. But, they play the games for a reason. LETS GO METS!

UPDATE:

Looking at it over, I'd say my most bullish projections are Santana and Niese. CHONE has Johan at only +3 WAR, which is far too low for me, Fangraphs Fan's have him at +4.7, which is probably a bit too high; I think +4 is fair, no? As for Niese, CHONE has him at +1.4 in 130+ IP; I think he'll be much closer to +2, if not over it, in a full season, so a projection anywhere between +1.6 to +1.8 sounds pretty fair.

But if you want to make those changes (+4 for Santana, +1.4 for Niese) then it comes out to 86.5; essentially 87 wins with slight boosts to guys I might be a bit down on (Murphy? K-Rod? Barajas?)

Edited by nmigliore

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