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Martyisth3b3st

2010 YANKEES HOT-STOVE THREAD

153 posts in this topic

Time for the offseason, for our Champs (I never get tired of saying that).

There will be a lot of tough decisions that need to be made.

- Do you re-sign Matsui?

- Do you re-sign Damon?

- What is Andy going to demand?

- Do they sign another SP?

Notable FAs

Damon

Matsui

Pettitte

Other FAs

Molina

Hairston Jr.

Hinske

Nady

I assume they bring back one of Damon/Matsui but I'd be kind of surprised to see both back. It's amazing how much a world-series victory changes everything.. because before the playoffs started I was ready to see both of them out the door.

I say the guys I'd want to bring back are Matsui and Pettitte. At least we know that Matsui won't be in the field...Damon will keep getting thrown out there and giving us -20+ UZR, costing us runs with both his glove AND his arm. Let's go for the kill and upgrade at LF, either by trade, or by signing. Leave CF to Melky and Gardner and Austin Jackson. Swish will be fine for another year in RF. Everything else is sewn up around the infield.

I can see them being players for Matt Holiday. I'd offer 5 years - $92M if the market is above that drop out but I think Holiday will be worth ~$18M per for the next 5 years.

Molina is gone. Cervelli will be the serf backup. He's good defensively but he really has no pop and his walks will go down from MilB numbers as pitchers at this level will challenge him. But he's 1/5th the price of Jose Molina, 10 years younger, equal to him defensively and while he won't be a big stick, living up to Jose's career 62 OPS+ number shouldn't be too hard to do.

Hairston I think is offered arbitration. If he accepts then he's the Yankees utility guy next year - I'm hoping this happens. If he declines to look for a full time gig then the Yanks let him walk and take the Type-B compensation draft pick. Pena or a veteran cheap FA will be the utility guy in that case.

Hinske probably resigns a 1 year deal to be a bench bat unless he thinks he can get 500 PAs somewhere else but I 'm not sure where that might be. SF maybe? If he's not back yanks look for veteran bat to PH occasionally off the bench.

Nady - most likely gone.

If Pettitte doesn't re-sign (elects to go the Moose retirement route) then I think the Yanks try to land one of: Harden, Bedard, Sheets on an incentive ladden high upside contract with a team option for 2011 that vest aupon hitting certian innings or starts totals. I don't expect them to be players for Lackey who will liekly land a contract equal to or greater than what Burnett signed last offseason.

In the bullpen with Hughes and Joba likely going to the rotation we may need a right handed setup man. Do we spring for someone like Rafael Soriano or give Robertson and Aceves the job? I'd probably go with internal options first and look for a trade later on if it comes to that. Overall I think we can keep most of our pen intact. I'd get rid of Bruney, but I'd keep Robertson, Aceves, Marte, Coke, Gaudin, and obviously Mo. Then I guess we can fill that out with guys like Melancon. But wouldn't be surprised if we're shopping the trade market by midseason. The one guy I might kick the tires on in the trade market would be Soria, he'd cost a pretty penny to say the least, but I think in all of major league baseball he'd probably be the best option to take over for Mo when he is ready to hang them up. However since Mo doesn't look to be ready anytime soon we probably don't need to jump on that just yet.

Down on the farm

Kennedy, Kroenke, Nova and McCallistair (sp? on all) will be AAA rotation depth and one or more will likely get cracks as 6th starter at some point next year.

Austin Jackson I think is another AAA season from big league ready though he may be a 2nd half callup if he shines at AAA or Melky/Gardner stumble badly.

Jesus Montero - huge power bat. Yanks want him to stick at C if possible so 2010 will be a AAA year but he may be a Sept callup. Still very young, 20 next year IIRC. ETA 2011.

Rotation

CC

AJ

? - FA (Lackey?) Pettitte or other

Joba

Hughes

Wang will likely be resigned though to a minor league deal since he's not expected to be ready before Memorial day at the earliest. After 2 lost injury seasons, not sure what to expect from Wang beyond rotational depth. I wish him luck, seems like a good guy.

I'm not expecting any big deals but then I was surprised after 1998 when they got Clemens, surprised after 2003 when they got A-rod and surprised they got Swisher (not as high profile as the other two) for a tomato can last year.

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Where are you getting -20 UZR from? Damon had a -9.2 UZR in LF this year and a -1.1 UZR in the outfield (between CF/LF) last year. The closest hes been to a -20 defender was in 2005 where he played CF for the Red Sox.

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I'm going to try to get a post up sometime this weekend with how I would like to see the Yankees proceed once I get a chance to take a step back and look at all the data. Once again it should certainly be an interesting offseason.

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I'm a huge Johnny Damon fan and really appreciative of his time here. For most of the season I wanted him back but his late season extended slump really started raising doubts in my head. Could his return hinder on if the Yankees want to pursue Holliday? Holliday is going to be 30 next year, Damon just turned 36 the other day. Holliday had an OPS+ of 142 last year, a wOBA of .390, UZR/150 of 6, and a WAR of 5.7. Damon had an OPS+ of 123, a wOBA of .376, UZR/150 of -12.1, and a WAR of 3. Albeit some of Holliday's numbers come from the NL but clearly he is the younger, better player. I do wonder if the Yankees want to add another expensive long term deal though.

For the rest of the outfield I like platooning Cabrera and Gardner for CF and keeping Swisher in RF. I like Nady and I hope he can get his career back on track but I think he is going to have to look elsewhere. I can see Jackson getting a call up but I think he is going to need another full year of AAA.

I'd love to retain Matsui but his knees are a major concern and I wonder if he would be happy only being DH since he is trying to come back as a normal outfielder. If it can work though I hope they can get him back though it would clog up the DH spot for Posada, Jeter, and Rodriguez. I'm not sure what the correct answer is here but thats why I'm not a GM.

I appreciate what Molina did but I agree its Cervelli's time to be the full time back up catcher for a fraction of the costs.

I'd be fine with keeping Hairston as the utility guy and offering him arbitration. Pena is good for depth and a fine option if the they don't retain Hairston. I'd also like Hinske back too.

Hopefully they can get Pettitte to come back. I'd like Lackey but once again I wonder if it makes sense for them to add another long term expensive deal. Out of all the free agent pitchers he is the guy I would want though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Wang non-tendered and made a free agent where they will try to bring him back on a minor league deal. I really hope he can revive his career but I have a lot of doubts. Important visit with Dr. Andrews Monday should tell us more.

I trust whatever plans the organization has for Chamberlain and Hughes to make them starting pitchers.

I think Robertson has proven he is a reliable option in the bullpen. I also think Aceves is a solid option. I like Rivera, Marte, Robertson, Melancon (I think he will be ready from the get go this year), Coke, Aceves, and Gaudin coming back for the bullpen.

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I know heyman says that holliday wants to come to the yankees for tradition and whatnot but I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole with his pro-Coors stats and struggles with the AL. You absolutely have to bring Damon back and wait for Austin Jackson.

The thing with Montero is that even though they want him to remain at catcher, what do you do if Mauer hits the market next year. You have to go after the best player in baseball at the most premium position, which also makes Romine expendable. Then I guess Montero becomes a LF or DH with Jackson in center and Swish/whoever in right for the future

And what about Aroldis Chapman? The Yankees have decent enough RHPs but nothing from the left side and this guy who throws in the upper 90s on the market. His secondary pitches have been a question, but worst case he's Joba II and that ain't too bad

I think it's dumb to nontender Wang, when after he comes back he could be as good as he was. Why risk losing him? :noclue:

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Well having two awesome catchers split time between C and DH together isn't a bad option. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Mauer took a hometown discount to stay with the Twins. I'd be open to trading Romine as part of the right package but having him and Montero hitting NY nearly at the same time as Posada's career winding down makes me feel good. Its really insane the year Montero had last year, too bad he got injured and couldn't finish it. I suppose they start him at AA and give him a quick promotion to AAA if he keeps raking. Also looks like Romine should hit AA this year if he doesn't start out there anyway. Lets also see how Gary Sanchez does this year in his first year in America. If he goes to plan they're going to have a helluva amount of quality catching depth.

I don't think there its dumb to non tender Wang necessarily. They could very well end up paying $5.5-6M on a guy whose career may be done. While its risky I think its worth the risk to non tender him and bring him back at a cheap price. That way if he recovers they get a bargain out of it, if he doesn't they didn't lose much. I also think with the depth they have they can afford to take this risks with young guys like Hughes, Chamberlain, McAllister, and Kennedy all be ready for 2011 to make up for any hole not having Wang would create.

Chapman worries me a bit but we'll see if the Yankees end up being the suitor. High price to pay but also a high ceiling. It won't kill me if the Yankees end up not signing him and use that money on other international free agents and signing guys from the draft.

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I don't think there its dumb to non tender Wang necessarily. They could very well end up paying $5.5-6M on a guy whose career may be done. While its risky I think its worth the risk to non tender him and bring him back at a cheap price. That way if he recovers they get a bargain out of it, if he doesn't they didn't lose much. I also think with the depth they have they can afford to take this risks with young guys like Hughes, Chamberlain, McAllister, and Kennedy all be ready for 2011 to make up for any hole not having Wang would create.

If the Yankees really are on a budget like Hal and Cash say, then nontender him and spend the money on Chapman or the draft or int'l FAs. It really wouldn't surprise me if they did get rid of him or just try to bring him back cheaper, I just wouldn't do it personally. I'd rather spend the money on him than the draft/Chapman if it's either or but they are the Yankees so let's spend it on both B )

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Holliday is an excellent player, which is kinda funny and hypocritical of me to say since I was arguing how he was a Coors Field product a few months ago. He did take advantage of Coors Field (how can you not?) but his OPS on the road did improve every year in Colorado. The important stat here is his park-adjusted wOBA, which was always very strong:

2004: .367

2005: .379

2006: .417

2007: .426

2008: .410

This year he played in 2 pitcher favored parks and still put up a .390 wOBA. Holliday's HR-power was what was inflated most from Coors Field, I would say. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 30+ homers annually if he went to the Yankees considering the bandbox they play in. I should throw in he also is an above average defender in LF, which is pretty important.

And Chapman won't be worth what he gets, IMO.

Edited by nmigliore

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I think Damon is re-signed, although he's a Boras client and it could get nasty and the Yankees just end up backing out. I think Matsui, sadly, is probably done here. I say sadly from the perspective of what he did for the team in the postseason, but I don't see his not coming back as extremely detrimental. Only one of those two will be back though and Damon is the stronger bet. I think the Yankees go after Matt Holliday as well. I imagine Matsui ending up in Seattle or Oakland.

Its up to Andy about coming back. Personally, I think he probably will retire, as I highly doubt he would come back and pitch for anyone else. I would imagine he will not decide for a long time, but its Yankees or retirement.

As for the bench guys, I don't really have any opinion on if any of them are coming back as all are expendable and easily replacable. I could see anyone of them coming back (aside from Nady) and none of them coming back.

I think the Yankees will flirt with Jason Bay just to get the Sox's price up, but Matt Holliday supposedly really wants to be a Yankee (akin to Tex last year) and that he will be one come opening day.

As for starters, they have a big decision to make with Wang. I'm at a loss on whether or not to tender him. If the market doesnt look good for a starter (and outside of Lackey, theres not a whole lot IMO) then tender Wang as a "last chance" sort of situation. I dont want to give up on him, but his health is such a concern right now. The Yankees are in a position to take a chance on him though, but if Andy retires, it makes at least 1 more starter a huge priority. They also have to decide whether or not to bring Joba or Hughes (if not both) back to the rotation. I'm fearing Jarrod Washburn finally becoming a Yankee lol.

Its definitely not going to be as nerve-wracking as last offseason, but the Yankees do have some work to do.

As for Chapman, everyone is wanking over this guy, but I see him in the Contreras mold right now. He's not going to put any team over the hump and is going to need development. I think he ends up in Boston because of his buddy that they signed.

Edited by ghdi

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I would love for the Yanks to sign Holliday or Bay, but I honestly think that they will be quiet this off-season other than maybe adding some smaller pieces. They have repeatedly said that they want to get younger and I think that they will give kids like Austin Jackson a chance. I'm not expecting them to sign another starter either, especially if they still plan to use both Hughes and Joba in the rotation and Pettitte doesn't retire. I could see them going after a reliever set-up-man type.

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I doubt they would ever consider it with the likes of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday on the market, but David DeJesus would be a good replacement for Damon, assuming KC would entertain the idea of trading him. Not a big power guy but plays excellent defense in LF and is typically 5-10 runs above average offensively. His WAR the past 5 years:

2005: 4.2

2006: 3.8

2007: 2.7

2008: 2.7

2009: 3.2

Some of those are a bit inflated because of his positional adjustment from playing a lot CF [like in 2005 and 2007], but assuming hes about 5 runs above average next year and plays +18 defense in LF his WAR would still be ~3.6, which is a major bargain for his $4.7M price tag.

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I have some concerns with Austin Jackson starting the year with the Yankees since his power still hasn't developed. Plus it looks like he would be over-matched in the majors based of this minor league equivalency calculator I used that gave me these projected major league numbers based off of his 2009 Scranton numbers.

.259/.308/.343/.651 with only 19 doubles and 3 home runs.

I think another year in the minors would do him good, after all he is only going to be 23.

DeJesus is an interesting option and I remember a lot of Yankee fans talking about trading for him last year. I have no idea what the Royals would want though.

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Jackson will not be on the club full time this coming season. Maybe a call up at some point, but I highly doubt he'll be a regular.

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Jackson will not be on the club full time this coming season. Maybe a call up at some point, but I highly doubt he'll be a regular.

yeah you'd either have to replace Melky/Gardner or stick him in LF which would create a pretty awful outfield offensively. Wait another year, make one of the two CFs now a 4th outfielder and make Austin the CF regularly and get a good hitter for left

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I'd be surprised, but at the same time I wouldnt be, if the Yanks signed Lackey. I think they're more likely to go after Wolf, and I can see Lackey getting a really nice paycheck to stay w/ the Angels, cause if he leaves, I think they lose the West to Texas next season.

That'd be a nice rotation though...

1. CC

2. AJ

3. Lackey

4. Andy

5. Wang/Joba/Hughes/Some other guy

Theres more predicting Lackey to the Yanks, this from Yahoo:

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Another option for the Yanks if they don't want to pay Holliday or Bay: Mike Cameron. Plays excellent CF defense and does more than enough with the bat. Hes a 4+ WAR player in CF and probably a 3+ WAR player if you stick him in LF.

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Cameron has almost been a Yankee a few times in trade rumors, but he seems like a last resort. I'd rather bring back both Damon and Matsui than him.

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I'm really hoping the sign Lackey. Taking a chance on guys like Sheets (who really looks like is going to Texas), Harden, and Bedard is nice in theory, but I really doubt any of those guys will be able to stay healthy and contribute. Lackey is a more reliable choice. I looked over Wolf's numbers and there pretty decent, though I'm not sure how they would translate to the AL. Lackey is the number one choice in my book plus it weakens the Angels. Adding Rafael Soriano to the bullpen would also be awesome.

Cameron is a better option than Damon so I won't mind the Yankees getting him. However, you will hear no complaints from me if they re-sign Damon. I hope they can get Holliday though.

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I've heard Figgens' name thrown around quite a bit. Not so sure how I feel about that. Sure, he's an upgrade defensively over Damon, but if he is signed as a replacement for Damon I'd have serious qualms..

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I'm not a huge Cameron fan, but I would definitely be on board with Figgins. He can play multiple positions, is a switch hitter, and has high end speed. He doesn't have much power, but the Yankees don't really need more of that.

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It's a small sample size but Figgins is horrible defensively in LF, -17.7 UZR/150. Going over his numbers the only position where he is a plus defender is 3rd base which obviously wouldn't work in NY. The most games he played in LF in a year were 16 in 2006. I don't think he is going to be worth the contract he gets or the compensation you'd have to give up to sign him, nor is he a viable option to replace Damon.

Cameron is a better choice than Figgins since he is still a plus defender and is doing it at a harder position CF (career UZR/150 5.7). He'd also come cheaper and would require less compensation.

Edit: While checking out the latest blog entries on fangraphs I found this article on why Cameron is a better option than Bay but will get overlooked.

Edited by thefiestygoat

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