NJDevs4978

Official 2011 New York Mets Thread

1,632 posts in this topic

I'll say ~82 wins. If things goes right, then perhaps ~88 wins. Either way, getting into the post-season is going to be pretty difficult with Atlanta and Philadelphia ahead of us. And according to this projection chart, even 82 wins is probably being optimistic:

NL_East.png

Looks like we're on all roughly the same page...basically about a .500 team, maybe a little better or worse depending on how things break. I'd love to do it, but I can't realistically make much of an argument for better than this...but in March everyone has a chance...

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Some more roster stuff:

(1) Pat Misch placed on waivers (hes out of options) - no surprise here. Don't really care if he clears or not.

(2) Mets claimed Manny Acosta on waivers from the Braves and assigned to him to AAA - live arm, does a decent job of getting groundballs, posted modest strikeout rates in 2007 and 2009, but his control just stinks. I'm fine with him as depth in AAA.

edit: And some more per Rubin (who now covers the Mets for ESPN New York).. Santos and F-Mart to AAA, and the Mets are reshuffling the rotation so that Pelfrey won't be starting the 2nd game of the season.

Edited by nmigliore

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Murphy is out 2-6 weeks with a grade 1 sprain of his right MCL. Davis will still go to AAA, with Jacobs being the likely starting 1B. Ugh... I'm not high on Murphy in general, but Jacobs is pretty awful; I'm not really thrilled to have him and his ~.300 OBP in the lineup, and hes terrible against lefties.

Its worth mentioning Ryan Garko was waived by the Mariners the other day. I would strongly consider picking him up and platooning with him Jacobs. In order to fit Garko you might have to cut ties with Tatis and his versatility, but I think it'd be worth it, especially when you consider Catalanotto would make up for some the lost versatility. Or you can just cut Matthews Jr., I guess. But anyway, Garko is a nice insurance policy to have on the bench, and he crushes LHP.

Edited by nmigliore

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Bill Simmons buys into the dark side, after reading up on it is now a Sabermetrics believer.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100402

I didn't want to believe it. Cautiously, nervously, I started researching the advanced stats, begrudgingly coming to one conclusion: The baseball friends were right. Baseball is an individual sport disguised as a team sport. The players are Strat-O-Matic cards with arms and legs. Like Strat-O-Matic, there's more than a little luck involved, but other than that, you are who you are. The numbers don't lie.

The sidebar to this column is true as well, that it's a shame Dick Allen never gets mentioned when great sluggers come up. The numbers say he was a monster, people who covered him back then say he was a monster, but for some reason he's slipped through the cracks.

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I don't watch ESPN all that much, but one of their recent Baseball Tonight shows the other week had a segment on sabermetrics stats, and they even had an interview with a writer from Fangraphs to explain some of the stats... I couldn't believe my eyes.

Its kind of funny... when I used to watch Baseball Tonight and not be into saber-stats a couple of years ago I took what they said for granted, but now whenever I watch, I see them often breaking down and judging hitters on the triple crown stats (AVG/HR/RBI), using the eye-test for defense, and judging pitchers by win-loss records, which really makes them sound very silly.

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Some cuts were announced tonight: Kiko Calero, Nelson Figueroa, Chris Carter, Bobby Parnell, Russ Adams, Elmer Dessens.

So I guess this is our Opening Day roster:

POSITION PLAYERS

Rod Barajas

Mike Jacobs

Luis Castillo

Alex Cora

David Wright

Jason Bay

Angel Pagan

Jeff Francoeur

Henry Blanco

Ruben Tejada

Gary Matthews Jr.

Fernando Tatis

Frank Catalanotto

STARTING PITCHERS

Johan Santana

John Maine

Jon Niese

Mike Pelfrey

Oliver Perez

RELIEF PITCHERS

Francisco Rodriguez

Pedro Feliciano

Ryota Igarashi

Jenrry Mejia

Hisanori Takahashi

Sean Green

Fernando Nieve

My take on a few things:

1) As you know, I don't like Mejia in the bullpen. Even putting the 'he should be starting in AA' arguement aside, theres nothing to suggest hes even ready for a major league bullpen gig. But hey, we'll see what happens. I just hope we don't mess the kid up, and I REALLY hope they view him as a starter in the future, despite the success he may or may not have in the 'pen this year. Anyway, I'll at least admit this: I think he'll be pretty fun to watch this year, the kid has electric stuff.

2) Calero cut? Really? I'm hoping this is more of a 'hes not ready' type of thing. Either way, I'm sure even Omar Minaya is smart enough to realize Calero is a pretty valuable reliever when healthy; he'll get his shot eventually.

3) Tough break for Carter. I really would have liked to see him make the bench. Fortunately he has options, so we don't lose him - he'll go to AAA, and if Catalanotto stinks it up enough to be cut, Carter should be the guy they call on. Depth never hurts.

4) Very tough break for Figueroa. I really thought Figgy was making the team, and after watching his interview during the game the other day, I really would have liked to see it happen, you can tell he was really excited at the prospect of being on an Opening Day roster for the 1st time in his career. Sorry Figs, I hope you tear it up Japan.

5) I'm really not so opposed to Parnell going to AAA. Personally, I think he really could use a 3rd pitch; his slider isn't that bad, but his control could use refinement. We'll see what happens with Bobby, but again, depth never hurts.

6) Hopefully Angel Pagan is the starter over Gary Matthews. Please, Jerry. Please.

7) I was skeptical of cutting Nieve due to him being out of options and thus the risk of losing him on waivers, but I think I would have done it anyway. Throwing strikes can some times be an issue and he doesn't get many swings and misses (4.4 swinging strike% last year, career 6.6 swinging strike%, league average is typically around 8.5%); not exactly a good combo.

8) For some reason I get the feeling Sean Green going to be either really good or really bad. As long as hes primarily facing righties and throwing strikes at a decent rate, he should be alright.

9) It'll be interesting to see what comes of Takahashi. If Igarashi, Mejia, or Nieve don't pan out as quality setup-men, could he be that guy? I think he'll settle in as a Darren Oliver-type who comes in and eats a couple of innings. I think he'll be pretty useful considering Maine and Perez don't exactly last deep into games. He also might have a shot at sticking in the rotation if Maine's shoulder bums out or if Perez is terrible. What I don't think he'll be: a lefty-on-lefty specialist.

10) Feliciano is terrific in his current role - being a LOOGY. Lets keep it that way, Jerry.

11) A Jacobs/Tatis platoon will make you groin at the initial thought, but I don't think it will be all that terrible...

Jacobs has a career .350 wOBA against righties, which translates to approximately average production from a 1B. Defensively? Well, let's just hope his glove is at least a little better than what defensive metrics think it is; but even so, with him manning the position for only 2-6 weeks, it shouldn't kill us.

As for the other side of the platoon, Fernando Tatis -- hes put up wOBA's higher than .350 each of the past 2 seasons vs LHP (.353 in 2008, .354 in 2009); obviously that grades out as above average for a 1B. He doesn't have enough of a sample size to make a conclusion about his glove at 1B, but both UZR and Total Zone say hes above average in the 350+ career innings hes played there.

Whew.. so with all of that said... LETS GO METS.

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Jack Cust was DFA'd by the Athletics... I put up a fanpost on Amazin' Avenue about why we should pick him up, so I figured I'd just copy and paste what I wrote from there:

Just when I was trying to be a little optimistic about a Jacobs/Tatis platoon, this news comes out of Oakland: Jack Cust has been designated for assignment.

From an offensive standpoint, Jack Cust would really be an excellent addition to the Mets' lineup. Hes actually coming off of a down year, a year in which he still hit 25 bombs and posted a .342 wOBA; did I mention Jacobs' wOBA was .305 last year? The projection systems seem pretty confident Cust will be better next year:

Bill James: .375 wOBA

CHONE: .360 wOBA

Marcel: .360 wOBA

ZiPS: .359 wOBA

And regardless of whether he posts a wOBA that high or remains in the ~.340 range again, that's still better than what Mike Jacobs is likely to put up, and he actually knows how to -- get this -- draw a walk!

Worried about how Citi Field? Don't. Cust has been hitting in a cavernous park in Oakland for 3 years now and has a career .926 OPS and .250 ISO in that stadium; I think he would do just fine at Citi.

But isn't he an outfielder? Yes he is, and hes an awful one at that. But we wouldn't be picking him to play the outfield, we would be picking him up to play 1B. Is his glove likely to be any good at that position? Probably not, he doesn't even any big-league experience at that position; but then again, lets not forget whose manning that position on Monday afternoon - Mike Jacobs. And I don't think I need to go over how awful his glove is.

All in all, I firmly believe Jack Cust would be a great pickup for the Mets, and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who rather see him and his ~.370 OBP hitting between Wright and Bay instead of Jacobs and his ~.313 OBP.

Edited by nmigliore

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Opening day lineup according to Metsblog

1. SS Alex Cora

2. 2B Luis Castillo

3. 3B David Wright

4. 1B Mike Jacobs

5. LF Jason Bay

6. CF Gary Matthews Jr.

7. RF Jeff Francoeur

8. C Rod Barajas

9. SP Johan Santana

very feast or famine...this team is going to strikeout a lot.

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That lineup is pretty awful. Why is Cora even leading off? And Matthews Jr. starting over Pagan is just, ick... Hopefully this is just some "its Opening Day, so I'll play the vets" type of thing, otherwise, Tejada should be the everyday SS until Reyes returns, and Pagan should be the everyday CF'er until Beltran returns. I hate Jacobs hitting between Wright and Bay too.

Well, whatever, it still should be a fun game to attend. LETS GO METS.

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That lineup is pretty awful. Why is Cora even leading off? And Matthews Jr. starting over Pagan is just, ick... Hopefully this is just some "its Opening Day, so I'll play the vets" type of thing, otherwise, Tejada should be the everyday SS until Reyes returns, and Pagan should be the everyday CF'er until Beltran returns. I hate Jacobs hitting between Wright and Bay too.

Well, whatever, it still should be a fun game to attend. LETS GO METS.

Yea that's terrible, Pagan needs to be in there. And flip Castillo and Cora...Cora is a good bunter, Castillo not as quick as he used to be but can still swipe a bag. Castillo should be the table setter and Cora the guy bunting him to 2nd or 3rd to set up the inning.

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Wow, that lineup basically seems like Jerry throwing everyone's names in a bingo ball machine and picking them out. Cora leading off is scary, Castillo hitting second is silly if you don't have Pagan in the lineup and Pagan should be playing anyway, he sort of earned that from his decent season last year.

I was gonna say 77 wins as a prediction, but at this point I'd probably even go lower and say 75. Even with a healthy roster you could make a case we're fourth in the division.

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Wow, that lineup basically seems like Jerry throwing everyone's names in a bingo ball machine and picking them out. Cora leading off is scary, Castillo hitting second is silly if you don't have Pagan in the lineup and Pagan should be playing anyway, he sort of earned that from his decent season last year.

I was gonna say 77 wins as a prediction, but at this point I'd probably even go lower and say 75. Even with a healthy roster you could make a case we're fourth in the division.

I think every Met fan has there expectations set low this season.

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What's scary: the movie "Major League" is now 20 years old.

Even scarier: I was 19 when I saw it, in the THEATER, for the first time.

Still ever scarier: I feel like this year's Mets team will be a lot like that Major League Indians' team...minus the charm and season-end surge. This has a lot of potential to be a rough one for sure. But they all start off 0-0 right? Please prove everyone wrong Metropolitans...

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Soon to be 1-0. At least they're a winning team for one day.

Congrats to nmig...he got to see this one live and in person.

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Soon to be 1-0. At least they're a winning team for one day.

Congrats to nmig...he got to see this one live and in person.

I've been to every Devils opener since 2004 but at least once I'd like to go to a Mets opener - by far baseball Opening Day seems to be the best, I don't know why. Maybe it's the whole going to a game in the day thing or the fact everyone actually starts 0-0 on the same day (other than the dopey ESPN opener on Sunday night now) while it's more staggered in other sports where some teams open one day and some another.

And yeah glad lol got a nice Santana win on the best early April day outside you can imagine and all's right with the world today. Big HR for Wright to get it going and put 2009 behind him personally, good job on tacking on runs after the Marlins had cut it to 2-1 with Santana going out of the game.

Edited by Hasan4978

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I've been to every Devils opener since 2004 but at least once I'd like to go to a Mets opener - by far baseball Opening Day seems to be the best, I don't know why. Maybe it's the whole going to a game in the day thing or the fact everyone actually starts 0-0 on the same day (other than the dopey ESPN opener on Sunday night now) while it's more staggered in other sports where some teams open one day and some another.

And yeah glad lol got a nice Santana win on the best early Aril day outside you can imagine and all's right with the world today. Big HR for Wright to get it going and put 2009 behind him personally, good job on tacking on runs after the Marlins had cut it to 2-1 with Santana going out of the game.

Yeah, I've never been to an Opening Day in baseball, and I agree that it has more of a special feeling to it...something about everything blooming and warmer weather coming...but just the sheer volume of games played in a MLB season makes the significance of Opening Day games rather ironic...what's more important, starting off an NFL season 1-0 or a MLB season 1-0? The best thing about a 1-0 start for a team that isn't expected to do very much (like ours), as teeny a sample as it is, you get that one little glimmer of hope and happiness. I get the feeling we'll have plenty of time to be negative...right now it's just kind of nice to see 1-0 and have something to cheer about.

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Back from the game... wow, really had great time. The weather was perfect, it got pretty windy as the game progressed but nothing too chilly. Didn't really get a chance to check out the Mets' HoF and the other new things in Citi; I'll be going again Wednesday so maybe I'll check it out then. As for the game... Santana was terrific. For some reason I couldn't find the velocity readings anywhere, but he was very effective, and he pretty much owned Cameron Maybin all afternoon. Wright hitting a 2-run HR in his 1st AB of the year, against an exceptionally good pitcher nonetheless, was an awesome sight to see! I felt like the game was turning towards the Marlins' when the Mets starting leaving men on base and when the fish cut the lead to 2-1... but then the explosion of runs in the next half inning (the 6th) made me breathe a lot easier. Good outing for Nieve to eat up a couple of innings and K a pair of hitters. Jacobs looked pretty crappy at the plate. I gotta admit, I was pretty impressed with Matthews Jr; strong game at the plate and got to everything hit his way in CF. Barajas and Bay had nice games too.

I took a bunch of pictures of the pre-game ceremony, I'll upload them somewhere and post them later.

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I just uploaded all of the pictures to Photobucket. Some of them came out a little blurry and you'll notice people got in the way of some others, but they came out pretty decent for the most part (its 3 pages): http://pbckt.com/sE.GVP

Pretty sure that link should work.

Edited by nmigliore

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Cool pics...thanks nmig.

BTW I heard the Mets' training staff and Oliver Perez heard the boo-birds aplenty during the intros...who else did, if anyone? Just curious...

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Cool pics...thanks nmig.

BTW I heard the Mets' training staff and Oliver Perez heard the boo-birds aplenty during the intros...who else did, if anyone? Just curious...

Hah...I didn't even know they introduced the training staff. I did hear the starting lineup get introduced over the radio and it sounded like Jerry and Castillo got their fair share of boos too. That's one thing I couldn't do, boo a guy before the start of the season although in the case of the training staff and doctors it's the only chance you get to boo so why not :lol:

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The entire training staff all got boo'ed but the equipment and clubhouse personnel all got cheered - I thought that was pretty hilarious. Dan Warthen and Jerry Manuel got mixed reactions. HoJo received a great cheer. Razor Shines received some boo's while Chip Hale got cheered. As for the players, Perez was boo'ed pretty heavily, Castillo got somewhat of a mixed reaction (some fans were yelling 'Luuiissss' while others were boo'ing). Sean Green was boo'ed. Bay, Wright, and K-Rod all received big cheers.

Edited by nmigliore

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