NJDevs4978

Official 2011 New York Mets Thread

1,632 posts in this topic

Can't wait until we're finally free of the plague known as Mike Pelfrey

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Gotta love Duda...kids got insane power. Clutch hits as well

facially satin looks like he could be Adam Laroche's brother. Pushbroom eyebrows

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Please, let this be the last we ever see of gutless Bobby Parnitez as our closer. Blowing games to the Nats and Fish? Really? Right down the middle to Mike Cameron...who the hell knew that fossil was even still playing?

Edited by '7'

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No more gutless puke Parnitez please, we've seen enough. He cant close games....PERIOD

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I'm going to be watching the Jets' game a hell of a lot more than the Mets' game tonight, but the Mets' 9/11 ceremony just now was amazing.

On the flipside, its a complete DISGRACE that MLB is not allowing them to wear the NYPD/NYFD hats. Disgusting.

Edited by nmigliore

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I'm going to be watching the Jets' game a hell of a lot more than the Mets' game tonight, but the Mets' 9/11 ceremony just now was amazing.

On the flipside, its a complete DISGRACE that MLB is not allowing them to wear the NYPD/NYFD hats. Disgusting.

Not that Wilpon has the $$$ to burn...but wear the hats and take the fine

f*ck you MLB. They wanted to put spiderman advertisements on the bags a few years ago, but not allowing us to wear hats honering this cities heroes? :angry:

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Really would've been nice to see David Wright get a hit there against Ramon Cruz with the bases loaded to win it...sigh

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Really would've been nice to see David Wright get a hit there against Ramon Cruz with the bases loaded to win it...sigh

Duda was walked so that Cruz could face Wright...who predictably did nothing. Yeah, loading the bases set up force plays at all bases, but just goes to show that no one's afraid of David Wright anymore. And he showed you why.

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For all the hate Wright gets, you'd think he's awful. His 131 wRC+ this season ranks tied for 2nd best among 3B this season with A-Rod. Michael Young leads the pack. But that's better than Kevin Youkilis, Aramis Ramirez, Evan Longoria, Chipper Jones, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman.... I could go on, but its useless. All the stats that people on this board care about are the garbage ones that hold little meaning.

Edited by nmigliore

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For all the hate Wright gets, you'd think he's awful. His 131 wRC+ this season ranks tied for 2nd best among 3B this season with A-Rod. Michael Young leads the pack. But that's better than Kevin Youkilis, Aramis Ramirez, Evan Longoria, Chipper Jones, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman.... I could go on, but its useless. All the stats that people on this board care about are the garbage ones that hold little meaning.

He hasn't been that good. No sabermetric spin-doctoring can change that. At the very least, he is definitely not what he was. Do you really think he's been good this year? No sabermetrics...just a simple yes or no answer.

BTW the Ks are ticking up again...9 in his last 7 games.

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He hasn't been that good. No sabermetric spin-doctoring can change that. At the very least, he is definitely not what he was. Do you really think he's been good this year? No sabermetrics...just a simple yes or no answer.

From a hitting perspective? Yes, he has been good. He ranks near the top in hitting at his position. How is that not good? And even if you want to look past the position argument, a 128 wRC+ is nothing to scoff at -- that means hes been 28% better than league average -- and it ranks tied for 37th overall in MLB. This isn't some skeptical, advanced stat either; think of wRC+ as basically a much better version of OPS+.

BTW the Ks are ticking up again...9 in his last 7 games.

And you're going to take that ridiculously small sample for granted? Check the season rate. Its 20.5%; that's drastically down from last year's rate 24%. Come on... if you're going to pick with Wright's numbers, the strikeout rate is probably the worst argument you can make. The fact Wright has kept his strikeouts under control pretty well should give you some hope that he MAY be able to return to the elite hitter he was a few years ago. Or if not that, then at least hold off this belief* that hes in decline

*: Which I don't buy anyway; I think Wright just peaked early and everyone falsely believed (believes?) hes headed for some steep, offensive decline as if hes in his mid-30's.

The only problem I have with Wright is something I've stated numerous times: defense. Defensive metrics can be dangerous if not used properly, but there are a multitude of metrics that have painted Wright as a very poor defender for 2-3 years now; there's a very good chance that is accurate and not just some noise.

Edited by nmigliore

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From a hitting perspective? Yes, he has been good. He ranks near the top in hitting at his position. How is that not good? And even if you want to look past the position argument, a 128 wRC+ is nothing to scoff at -- that means hes been 28% better than league average -- and it ranks tied for 37th overall in MLB. This isn't some skeptical, advanced stat either; think of wRC+ as basically a much better version of OPS+.

And you're going to take that ridiculously small sample for granted? Check the season rate. Its 20.5%; that's drastically down from last year's rate 24%. Come on... if you're going to pick with Wright's numbers, the strikeout rate is probably the worst argument you can make. The fact Wright has kept his strikeouts under control pretty well should give you some hope that he MAY be able to return to the elite hitter he was a few years ago. Or if not that, then at least hold off this belief* that hes in decline

*: Which I don't buy anyway; I think Wright just peaked early and everyone falsely believed (believes?) hes headed for some steep, offensive decline as if hes in his mid-30's.

The only problem I have with Wright is something I've stated numerous times: defense. Defensive metrics can be dangerous if not used properly, but there are a multitude of metrics that have painted Wright as a very poor defender for 2-3 years now; there's a very good chance that is accurate and not just some noise.

One problem with these numbers is that they don't measure consistency. Wright has been woefully inconsistent this season...like I said, in my eyes he's become Pat Burrell. And even if the Ks are down overall, he still gets overmatched on average stuff a bit too often.

Checked out guys like Youkilis and Longoria, and they are having down years, which allows Wright to move up in the sabes category.

The best thing I can say about Wright is that he's been unconscious a couple of times this season (July 22-31 and Aug 24-Sep 5 come to mind), but he's been pretty invisible otherwise...yes, every player has ups and downs and hot spells and slumps, but I don't look at Wright's year and say "yeah, he's been good." I don't think many Met fans would or could.

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Wright strikes again in the field...but at least he's having a "good" year at the plate. Right.

Beltran continues to sizzle for SF now that it's effectively garbage time for that team. Of course those who don't watch him daily will look at his overall numbers for the Giants and say, "See, he was good for them" when he really wasn't. At least he'll get a decent contract out of someone.

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Whatever, CR. I've said my piece. I'm tired of constantly repeating stuff. If you really think Wright's offensive season is not good despite clear statistics that say otherwise.... then whatever, believe what you want. The only thing we're going to really agree on is that his defense is problematic, and yes, that does cut into his value as an overall player.

Regarding Beltran, again, this is a situation we'll never agree on. His numbers with the Giants (.926 OPS) are fantastic, yet you continue to look at the glass half empty while I tend to view it as the glass half full; I'm sure the answer is somewhere in the middle.

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Whatever, CR. I've said my piece. I'm tired of constantly repeating stuff. If you really think Wright's offensive season is not good despite clear statistics that say otherwise.... then whatever, believe what you want. The only thing we're going to really agree on is that his defense is problematic, and yes, that does cut into his value as an overall player.

Regarding Beltran, again, this is a situation we'll never agree on. His numbers with the Giants (.926 OPS) are fantastic, yet you continue to look at the glass half empty while I tend to view it as the glass half full; I'm sure the answer is somewhere in the middle.

Here's some clear stats for you, re: Wright:

.263 BA - 38 points below his career avg

.357 OB% - 24 points below his career norm

.441 SLG% - 69 points below his career norm

.798 OB+SLG - 93 points below his career norm

Month of August: .247 BA, .768 OB+SLG

Month of Sep: .235 BA, .753 OB+SLG

Sorry, there's NO way you can spin this season as having been a good one for Wright. He hasn't been flat-out terrible overall, but he has not been good.

As for Beltran, the numbers look good at a glance, especially now that he's fattening them up, but to me that was Beltran's MO almost the whole time he was a Met. He never seems to be as good as the numbers would have you believe...you're almost shocked at the end of the year when you look at his stats.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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I think Wright has had an okay season. It's allowable for a player to have a season that's a bit off. I thought his last season was not as good as this one. It's certainly no reason to panic and look for other options. There really aren't any other options anyway; we don't have any of the MLB's top third base prospects.

From a hitting perspective? Yes, he has been good. He ranks near the top in hitting at his position. How is that not good?

The only problem I have with Wright is something I've stated numerous times: defense. Defensive metrics can be dangerous if not used properly, but there are a multitude of metrics that have painted Wright as a very poor defender for 2-3 years now; there's a very good chance that is accurate and not just some noise.

If Wright really is one of the worst at his position, it seems a bit off to me to be comparing him to others at his position.

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I think Wright has had an okay season. It's allowable for a player to have a season that's a bit off. I thought his last season was not as good as this one. It's certainly no reason to panic and look for other options. There really aren't any other options anyway; we don't have any of the MLB's top third base prospects.

If Wright really is one of the worst at his position, it seems a bit off to me to be comparing him to others at his position.

My concern is to where it's heading...though he put up respectable power numbers last season, some of his other numbers were down, and those other numbers are further down this season. nmig PMed some interesting info as to how some of the more traditional numbers and ways of measuring performance can be misleading...I'm open to other ways of measuring production, and maybe Wright is playing better than he appears to be (at the plate, anyway), but I see a guy who just isn't what he was, and yeah, I'm worried about that.

nmig is basically saying he's been one of the best hitters at his position (in part because it seems like a lot of third basemen are not having good years), but has been poor defensively. If the 2006-08 Wright was coming up to the plate (and another season wasn't lost), it'd be easier to overlook.

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I figured I'll just post what I did in the PM and why there are better offensive-measuring stats than OPS, which really explains why I think Wright is still a very good hitter:

The problem with OPS is that its flawed. Don't get me wrong, it's still somewhat useful, but I don't use it that often anymore. It's biggest issue is that it overvalues SLG. For instance, a player with a .300 OBP/.500 SLG is treated the same as a player with a .400 OBP/.400 SLG (eg: both players have an .800 OPS). So that's where the stat weighted on-base average (wOBA) comes into play; this stat uses linear weights to essentially balance things out. A quick, current example is this:

Michael Young has an .851 OPS this season.

Nelson Cruz, likewise, has an .851 OPS this season.

So both hitters look just as valuable as one another. But that's not really true. wOBA, with linear weights, balances these out: .364 wOBA for Cruz, .367 for Young. Not a HUGE difference, but at least something, and it proves OPS is over-valuing Cruz (even if only by a little). There are plenty of other examples that are more extreme than this if you research. But yeah, that's why wOBA > OPS. Fangraphs uses this as part of it's definition:

OPS does a good job of combining all the different aspects of hitting (hitting for average, hitting for power, having plate discipline) into one metric, but it weighs slugging percentage the same as on-base percentage, while on-base percentage is more valuable than slugging.

Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.

wOBA is put on the same scale as OBP, so any score that would be a great OBP is also a great wOBA. League-average is typically around .330, although it varies from year to year.

And you've seen me quote wRC+ before, which, in a nutshell, is the OPS+ for wOBA. So think: what OPS+ is to OPS is equal to what wRC+ is to wOBA.

And in general I use wRC+ over wOBA, because, again like OPS+ does, it adjust for park and league. This important, because a .330 wOBA last year is a lot more valuable THIS year because runs are down. wRC+ obviously adjust for this (and parks), like OPS+ does. This is why I view Wright in such high regard offensively. It may SEEM like his offensive numbers are down, but once properly balanced out, adjusted for park and league, they are really quite good - as I mentioned the other day, he ranks somewhere in the top 35 in MLB and near the top at his position in wRC+.

There's just too many fallacies in comparing his current season OPS versus his career rates; again, for one, OPS isn't as accurate of an offensive measurement as wOBA .. two, its not even adjusted for the fact Wright plays in Citi or the fact runs all around baseball are down, which sets the offensive bar lower.. and three, I think me and you both realize Wright's career numbers are skewed by his awesome level of play in 2005-2008, which he'll probably not return to.

All of these stats can be found at Fangraphs under player pages and the leaderboards, and they also have a library/glossary section with good definitions and links to separate articles explaining things more in depth.

Edited by nmigliore

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Nice win, 2 of 3 in Atlanta is a rarity

But go away Parnell...go away forever.

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Beltran is really going nuts out there...now up to .338 as a Giant. Too bad it's all coming in garbage time, though the Giants aren't dead yet.

Gotta wonder how much more Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain can take of the lack of offense...Lincecum has made 154 career starts, has a career ERA of 2.95 and has won just 69 games, against 40 losses.

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Wright is now 2 for his last 22, with 1 BB and 10 Ks. His slash line (.257/.346/.435) and OB+SLG (.781) are all well below his career norms...as a matter of fact, the only stat that isn't a career-worst for Wright is his OB% (second-worst). He's hit .233 since August 1, over 180 AB. Sorry nmig, I know you've come up reasons and alternative stats as to why Wright has been better than the numbers I listed would have us believe, but it's really hard to categorize this as having been a good year for him. Maybe he goes on a end-season tear that builds his numbers up.

I hope to God bringing the fences in helps this guy.

Mets finish with a 43-38 record on the road. Guess that's something.

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Ouch, yeah Wright really hasn't been the same player at all the last two years. He'll probably have some form of a bounceback next year playing for a contract but it would do more harm than god to whoever signs him if they wind up being fake numbers.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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Wright now down to .255, career down to .300 on the nose. BA isn't everything of course, but it's still sad to see where Wright is. At this point, I'll take the 2010 version of Wright.

And whatever the Mets' plans are going forward, I hope Mike Pelfrey isn't part of them.

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Wright now down to .255, career down to .300 on the nose. BA isn't everything of course, but it's still sad to see where Wright is. At this point, I'll take the 2010 version of Wright.

And whatever the Mets' plans are going forward, I hope Mike Pelfrey isn't part of them.

I saw a stat today.. that in 28 innings pitched against the Phillies, Pelfrey has given up 24 ER and 6GS.. wtf?? guy is a scrub

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