nmigliore Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 (edited) Its really sad how the Padres have stumbled so much down the stretch and need a lot to go right this weekend in order to get in to the playoffs. And while they made a surprising run this year, I'm not sold at all that they are built well for the future with this current group. I mean Mat Latos is absolutely one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Clayton Richard is pretty good too, and their bullpen was #1 in baseball this year, but after that... there just isn't much to like. What futures do Correia and Garland have with this team? Wade LeBlanc's ERA might look good in the low-4's, but deeper stats indicate hes probably not much more than a mediocre #5, and that's probably being nice. Position player-wise, you have Adrian Gonzalez, who is a star, but is destined for free agency in another year barring an extension. Kyle Blanks missed most of this season but hes got some good upside. Headley was excellent defensively at 3B this year (+14.1 UZR, +19 DRS) though expecting him to routinely do that isn't right. Will Venable was pretty decent overall too (2.8 WAR in 432 PA), and they made a nice trade to get Ryan Ludwick, but really, there just isn't much to like here. Yorvit Torrealba? The Hairstons? David Eckstein? Tony Gwynn Jr.? Bleh. I'm not really knowledgeable about their farm system, but this current team that led the NL West for the majority of this season really isn't a team to build around. You got the star players like Mat Latos and Adrian Gonzalez along with a top-tier bullpen (though lets not forget bullpens can be pretty volatile year to year), but there just isn't a whole lot after that, and like I said, there's a good chance 1 of those stars (Gonzalez) is gone by 2012. So while this may look like a season in the right direction for San Diego, they probably should still realize that this team, while it certainly has SOME nice, young pieces, isn't built for the future as is, and they'd be wise to deal Adrian Gonzalez while they still can (if not extend him). Edited October 1, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcenter47 Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Its really sad how the Padres have stumbled so much down the stretch and need a lot to go right this weekend in order to get in to the playoffs. And while they made a surprising run this year, I'm not sold at all that they are built well for the future with this current group. I mean Mat Latos is absolutely one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Clayton Richard is pretty good too, and their bullpen was #1 in baseball this year, but after that... there just isn't much to like. What futures do Correia and Garland have with this team? Wade LeBlanc's ERA might look good in the low-4's, but deeper stats indicate hes probably not much more than a mediocre #5, and that's probably being nice. Position player-wise, you have Adrian Gonzalez, who is a star, but is destined for free agency in another year barring an extension. Kyle Blanks missed most of this season but hes got some good upside. Headley was excellent defensively at 3B this year (+14.1 UZR, +19 DRS) though expecting him to routinely do that isn't right. Will Venable was pretty decent overall too (2.8 WAR in 432 PA), and they made a nice trade to get Ryan Ludwick, but really, there just isn't much to like here. Yorvit Torrealba? The Hairstons? David Eckstein? Tony Gwynn Jr.? Bleh. I'm not really knowledgeable about their farm system, but this current team that led the NL West for the majority of this season really isn't a team to build around. You got the star players like Mat Latos and Adrian Gonzalez along with a top-tier bullpen (though lets not forget bullpens can be pretty volatile year to year), but there just isn't a whole lot after that, and like I said, there's a good chance 1 of those stars (Gonzalez) is gone by 2012. So while this may look like a season in the right direction for San Diego, they probably should still realize that this team, while it certainly has SOME nice, young pieces, isn't built for the future as is, and they'd be wise to deal Adrian Gonzalez while they still can (if not extend him). san diego needs hitting. they were winning game by scoring only a few runs. their pitching is amazing and sadly they may need to trade one or two of them to get some sluggers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 (edited) their pitching is amazing I don't really agree with that; I mean their bullpen was definitely amazing, but like I said, bullpens can be pretty volatile year to year. Mat Latos is an ace and Clayton Richard looks pretty good too (though he is 27, which is older than I originally thought), but after that, there are 3 question marks in their rotation. Wade LeBlanc is a #5 starter at best; Fangraph's WAR system put him below replacement level this year. Kevin Correia was also replacement level this year, and hes an impending free agent anyway. Jon Garland is... well, Jon Garland; a durable back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but hes not that valuable, and hes not on the young side. They can build their rotation around Latos and Richard I suppose, but with guys like Correia, Garland, and LeBlanc? No way. That's just not going to cut it, especially with how weak of a lineup they put out there. Edited October 1, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hi, I'm VALUE! Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Problem is, can the Padres even help themselves? I know that they've been a low-budget team for a while now, and I'm not sure they're going to want to try and help themselves out. Their best plan, TBH, is probably to trade Heath Bell for an impact bat if they plan on contending in '11. Even at $6MM (which MLBTR figures he'll get through arb raises), Bell should appeal to several teams looking for closing help. I'm just not sure who the Padres would want for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 (edited) Their best plan, TBH, is probably to trade Heath Bell for an impact bat if they plan on contending in '11. Even at $6MM (which MLBTR figures he'll get through arb raises), Bell should appeal to several teams looking for closing help. I'm just not sure who the Padres would want for it. Absolutely. Relievers get overvalued anyway, and their bullpen can survive without him. The problem is Heath Bell at 1 year (hes a free agent in 2012) vs Bell at multiple years makes him less attractive. I don't think he brings back an impact bat, but that's just a guess on my part. We'll see, should they opt to move him. Extending or trading Adrian Gonzalez should be their primary plan though. If they want to trade him, get it done over the winter; the longer they wait (lets say they hang onto him until next year's deadline), the weaker return they'll get. Edited October 1, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hi, I'm VALUE! Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Absolutely. Relievers get overvalued anyway, and their bullpen can survive without him. The problem is Heath Bell at 1 year (hes a free agent in 2012) vs Bell at multiple years makes him less attractive. I don't think he brings back an impact bat, but that's just a guess on my part. We'll see, should they opt to move him. Extending or trading Adrian Gonzalez should be their primary plan though. If they want to trade him, get it done over the winter; the longer they wait (lets say they hang onto him until next year's deadline), the weaker return they'll get. Agreed on Gonzalez. Their closing meeting in 2010, whether it's next week or in November, should start with what to do about Adrian. As for Bell, what if the Padres brought an old NBA favorite to MLB...the good ol' Sign 'n' Trade! See if Bell extends for 1-2 additional years, then flip him to a contender with an excess of bats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted October 2, 2010 Share Posted October 2, 2010 (edited) A recent Fangraphs' article inspired this thought, but, I really never noticed what an outstanding season Justin Morneau has had, even though he hasn't played since July. Hes totaled a +5.3 fWAR in only 348 PA this season, or, in simpler terms: a .345/.437/.618 slash line and an UZR just under +10 at 1B. That's nuts. I know its dangerous to play the 'on pace for ...' game, and I'm sure he would have regressed at least some, but over 600 PA, that translates to an fWAR above 9! It would have been really sweet to see him and Hamilton duke it out for the AL MVP down the stretch opposed to Hamilton so easily running away with it like he is. Oh what could have been.... Hes supposedly going to be out at least until the ALCS, which really stinks for the Twins, though they are already very well-balanced as is: 3rd in AL in wOBA, 3rd in AL in starting pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in relief pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in UZR/2nd in AL in DRS. If they can squeak past the Yankees or Rays in the ALDS and then get Morneau back, watch out. Edited October 2, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted October 2, 2010 Author Share Posted October 2, 2010 A recent Fangraphs' article inspired this thought, but, I really never noticed what an outstanding season Justin Morneau has had, even though he hasn't played since July. Hes totaled a +5.3 fWAR in only 348 PA this season, or, in simpler terms: a .345/.437/.618 slash line and an UZR just under +10 at 1B. That's nuts. I know its dangerous to play the 'on pace for ...' game, and I'm sure he would have regressed at least some, but over 600 PA, that translates to an fWAR above 9! It would have been really sweet to see him and Hamilton duke it out for the AL MVP down the stretch opposed to Hamilton so easily running away with it like he is. Oh what could have been.... Hes supposedly going to be out at least until the ALCS, which really stinks for the Twins, though they are already very well-balanced as is: 3rd in AL in wOBA, 3rd in AL in starting pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in relief pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in UZR/2nd in AL in DRS. If they can squeak past the Yankees or Rays in the ALDS and then get Morneau back, watch out. Morneau was just tearing up the league before the concussion. Speaking of MVP and awards...anyone have a problem with Hamilton, Votto, King Felix, and Halladay for the big 4 awards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted October 2, 2010 Share Posted October 2, 2010 (edited) Morneau was just tearing up the league before the concussion. Speaking of MVP and awards...anyone have a problem with Hamilton, Votto, King Felix, and Halladay for the big 4 awards? I'd go with: Josh Hamilton for AL MVP, Joey Votto for NL MVP, Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young (this is definitely the most difficult choice, but I went with WAR, FIP, tERA, and xFIP as the 4 deciding factors between Lee and King Felix, and Lee wins in all 4), Roy Halladay for NL Cy Young, Austin Jackson for AL RoY, and Buster Posey for NL RoY. Edit: I just threw in tERA for the heck of it and Lee won in that too. I do find it shocking Felix isn't on top of at least 1 of those 4 stats (though WAR/FIP kinda go hand-in-hand to a degree). I guess Lee really is just that damn good. Edited October 2, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted October 2, 2010 Author Share Posted October 2, 2010 I'd go with: Josh Hamilton for AL MVP, Joey Votto for NL MVP, Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young (this is definitely the most difficult choice, but I went with WAR, FIP, and xFIP as the 3 deciding factors between Lee and King Felix, and Lee wins in all 3), Roy Halladay for NL Cy Young, Austin Jackson for AL RoY, and Buster Posey for NL RoY. It is pretty funny that the old school guys look simply at a pitcher's wins and how good their teams are, while a guy like me might look at ERA, WHIP, IP, etc and you are going further with the heavy duty advanced stats. I don't know though...Hernandez has an ERA almost 1 point below Lee...has pitched a ton more innings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted October 2, 2010 Share Posted October 2, 2010 (edited) It is pretty funny that the old school guys look simply at a pitcher's wins and how good their teams are, while a guy like me might look at ERA, WHIP, IP, etc and you are going further with the heavy duty advanced stats. I don't know though...Hernandez has an ERA almost 1 point below Lee...has pitched a ton more innings. Its tough. If Felix wins, I won't complain, that's for sure. There is absolutely a case to be made that he deserves it. The only reason I don't really like ERA and WHIP is because they have a reliance on things that aren't really in a pitcher's control, such as defense (which is a factor in hits in WHIP, and in turn ERA) and ballparks. A pitcher who pitches behind an excellent defense is probably going to have a decent ERA despite weak peripherals (see: Jarrod Washburn last year - 2.64 ERA with Seattle despite his FIP being over a full run higher at 3.80)*. And vice versa - a pitcher who pitches behind a bad defensive team might have a higher ERA than he should. But hey, at least its better than going by win-loss records and being on a winning team. I'm not trying to pick on a Yankee here, but you just know CC Sabathia will get his share of Cy Young votes for his 21 wins, and to a lesser degree, being on 1 of the best teams in baseball, when in reality, there is probably 7 to 10 more deserving candidates. * - A 3.80 FIP is not weak, but you get what I mean. Edit: I should clarify that I don't find WHIP to be totally useless. I just don't personally use it that often due to the hit factor, which is related to BABIP/defense. Its mainly ERA that I'm picking with, and its to a point where I rarely look at it. I always jump straight to FIP since its a better indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching. Its like I mentioned above - a pitcher could have weak peripherals and a good ERA while another pitcher could have good peripherals and a poor ERA; should the pitcher with weak peripherals/good ERA get the credit for being better? I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. In this case, while its obviously not as extreme as as the example I just said, Lee has been better. Even when you factor in the innings, which is what WAR does, the advantage still goes to Lee. And then there is tERA, which basically extends off of FIP and factors in batted balls (so obviously a pitcher with a high line drive rate against and a weak groundball rate isn't going to have a nice looking tERA), and that stat also favors Lee. I can even go a bit further and use one of Baseball Prospectus' tools, SIERA: 'Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck.' Felix's SIERA: 3.19 .. Lee's SIERA: 3.03. I'm not trying to rag on Felix here either. Hes been outstanding this year. Has he been better than Cliff Lee? Like I've said: its tough. You can't go wrong with either as a Cy Young choice. I just tend to lean towards the advanced stats, which say Lee gets the edge. Edited October 2, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 (edited) Holy crap, the Marlins just dealt Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn. That's right. Dan Uggla for a utility infielder, who will be a free agent next year, and a reliever. Their all-time HR leader and one of the best hitting 2B in baseball to a division rival for a crappy, zero-upside return. Uggla is a free agent next year, but man, you have to do better than that. What a pathetic franchise. I feel bad for Marlins fans, I really do. Edited November 16, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteyNice Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wow. That was theft. I hate to think what kind of dreck other teams were offering. Infante is a capable player but also a FA after next season. People here were concerned what kind of fleecing they were going to see when the Braves traded for Upton. Of course, their infield defense takes a big hit unless you move Uggala to the OF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 (edited) Why wouldn't the Marlins just keep him and take the picks? Now the Braves get the picks which is worth what they gave up alone if not much more. This trade makes no sense. Edited November 17, 2010 by devilsrule33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 (edited) I should note I don't think Infante is a crappy player (which it looks like I'm saying in the original post). I think he'll bring some decent value to the Marlins next season for only being paid $2.5M. But in terms of upside, its really nothing, and hes a free agent after the season. The deal would look a lot better if Infante was younger and cost-controlled for more years, or even if he projected as a Type-A. Dunn, a flyball reliever with control issues, is really the only "given" future player the Marlins are acquiring here, which really makes this deal bad. Edited November 17, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hi, I'm VALUE! Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 John Buck is a Marlin for 3/$18. Thoughts? I'm just happy the Red Sox didn't get him, since he was one of their primary targets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 (edited) John Buck is a Marlin for 3/$18. Thoughts? I'm just happy the Red Sox didn't get him, since he was one of their primary targets. Fills their catching hole, but 3 years at $6M per seems quite excessive for a catcher with Buck's skillset. He doesn't walk much anymore, he strikes out a lot, but since hes more of an aggressive hitter now, hes hitting for more power. The problem is if pitchers start catching on to his aggressive tendencies (and I'm sure they will), his power is likely going to regress, and once that happens, he won't be any good. For 1 year with some kind of option thrown in I think it would be okay, but 3 years is too much IMO. Don't get me wrong either, Buck was quietly a top-10 hitting catcher this year, and he wasn't that bad the year prior, but I'd just doubt that pitchers never make an adjustment when pitching to him. Keith Law had a funny take on Buck in his free agent rankings list (he ranked Buck 49 out of 50): It's possible that Buck just found himself once he got out of Kansas City and had the chance to play nearly every day, or it's possible that a dead fastball hitter changed his approach to try to boost his home run total in his walk year, with a little help from Toronto's homer-friendly ballpark and a fortunate schedule. Edited November 17, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 So the Cy Young awards were handed out this week. Unsurprisingly, Roy Halladay took home the award for the NL, and it was announced today that Felix Hernandez won it for the AL. Good for King Felix. I said it weeks ago that I would not oppose him winning it, as you can easily make a strong case that he should win it over Lee. I'm just glad they didn't do something dumb like give it to Sabathia or Price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Adrian Gonzalez looks Boston-bound: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/red-sox-padres-talking-adrian-gonzalez-trade.html Regardless of what the return will be right now, this move was an absolute must for the Padres. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 (edited) Holy.... Werth just got $126M over 7 years from the Natinals Nationals. :rofl: Perhaps the funniest part of this deal is that its going to be a nice, big albatross on their payroll when they finally do become competitive (opposed to looking "okay" like it would over the next season or 2). Crazy. Edited December 5, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'7' Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Dear god that is a brutal deal for Werth. is it frontloaded at least? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 (edited) Edit: My bad, wrong thread. Edited December 7, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 (edited) Crawford to the Red Sox. Wow. That has to put the Sox as the team to beat this year. Just an insane amount of money though. Way too much. Edited December 9, 2010 by devilsrule33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halfsharkalligatorhalfman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I wonder how Tampa Bay fans feel about this. Is this a massive betrayal to them, or do they just accept it as the way it works? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 (edited) That's a lot of money indeed. The market is insane this year. This really helps Boston short-term, that's for sure. Long-term wise, it seems very risky. Crawford accumulated a total of +26.4 Fangraphs' WAR in his past 7 seasons, his age 22 to 28 seasons, which translates to about $119M of value using $4.5M per 1 WAR. I think Crawford will be a valuable player through the course of the deal -- barring any leg injuries (boy that would be a killer) -- and I'm sure he has a few +5 win years left in him, but I don't think I could see him being worth that much money all the way through his age 35 season. That really is a ton of money so heavily tied into speed and defense. I think Crawford's defense would be more utilized in RF at Fenway, so it'll be interesting to see if they make a switch. By the way, this probably locks up Lee to the Yankees. Edited December 9, 2010 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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