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devilsrule33

2010 MLB Thread

200 posts in this topic

Chipper's out for the year with a torn ACL, which means his career is likely done since in all likelihood 2010 was going to be his final year. This sucks, I was hoping Chipper would go out lifting the World Series trophy over his head, not like this :(

eh Braves weren't winning the World Series anyway with that team barring an 06 Cards like run. This probably means the Phils are winning that division if they weren't already

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Not that the sample size is all that much (both players only have about 130 PA with their new teams), but, since the Escobar/Gonzalez swap:

Alex Gonzalez: .261/.328/.429, .325 wOBA, +0.6 fWAR

Yunel Escobar: .308/.357/.427, .344 wOBA, +1.1 fWAR

When the trade was made last month I said this:

The problem is, Escobar is probably a better bet to outperform Gonzalez in the 2nd half. I'd be stunned if Gonzalez keeps up his crazy power surge, and I'd be equally stunned if Escobar keeps up his power outage.

Escobar outperforming Gonzalez so far? Check. Gonzalez hitting for less power (.238 ISO with Jays, .168 ISO with Braves)? Check. Escobar hitting for more power (.069 ISO with Braves, .120 ISO with Jays)? Check.

I'm not trying to boast or anything as I'm sure a lot of other people probably saw that coming too. And who knows, to cut Atlanta some slack, Escobar is probably 1 of those players that really did need a change of scenery. I still would have looked for a better return though....

Edited by nmigliore

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Not that the sample size is all that much (both players only have about 130 PA with their new teams), but, since the Escobar/Gonzalez swap:

I'm not trying to boast or anything as I'm sure a lot of other people probably saw that coming too. And who knows, to cut Atlanta some slack, Escobar is probably 1 of those players that really did need a change of scenery. I still would have looked for a better return though....

Atlanta needed to get some kind of SS back for him and that was probably one of the only teams that would do it. They could've traded him to Boston for Lowrie or something but there probably weren't many good options out there just to get rid of Escobar

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Jose Bautista has 40 homeruns.... and there are still 6 weeks of regular season baseball left.

What is the world coming too?

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Jose Bautista has 40 homeruns.... and there are still 6 weeks of regular season baseball left.

What is the world coming too?

watch him hit like 12 next year and start hitting like Jose Bautista again

Edited by DH26

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Jose Bautista has 40 homeruns.... and there are still 6 weeks of regular season baseball left.

What is the world coming too?

I don't know, but I am enjoying every minute of it in what has been a very surprisingly fun Jays season.

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I don't know, but I am enjoying every minute of it in what has been a very surprisingly fun Jays season.

Brandon Morrow really seems like he's fun to watch. Tex said he's pitching different every time out with great stuff. Sounds like Joba when you know he was good as a starter in 2008. How they got him for nothing is still mind boggling

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Strasburg is expected to have TJ Surgery. Yikes. Major bummer for the Nationals.

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Strasburg is expected to have TJ Surgery. Yikes. Major bummer for the Nationals.

Major bummer on the price of his rookie card. I have it :angry::rant::evilcry:

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Its really sad how the Padres have stumbled so much down the stretch and need a lot to go right this weekend in order to get in to the playoffs. And while they made a surprising run this year, I'm not sold at all that they are built well for the future with this current group. I mean Mat Latos is absolutely one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Clayton Richard is pretty good too, and their bullpen was #1 in baseball this year, but after that... there just isn't much to like. What futures do Correia and Garland have with this team? Wade LeBlanc's ERA might look good in the low-4's, but deeper stats indicate hes probably not much more than a mediocre #5, and that's probably being nice. Position player-wise, you have Adrian Gonzalez, who is a star, but is destined for free agency in another year barring an extension. Kyle Blanks missed most of this season but hes got some good upside. Headley was excellent defensively at 3B this year (+14.1 UZR, +19 DRS) though expecting him to routinely do that isn't right. Will Venable was pretty decent overall too (2.8 WAR in 432 PA), and they made a nice trade to get Ryan Ludwick, but really, there just isn't much to like here. Yorvit Torrealba? The Hairstons? David Eckstein? Tony Gwynn Jr.? Bleh.

I'm not really knowledgeable about their farm system, but this current team that led the NL West for the majority of this season really isn't a team to build around. You got the star players like Mat Latos and Adrian Gonzalez along with a top-tier bullpen (though lets not forget bullpens can be pretty volatile year to year), but there just isn't a whole lot after that, and like I said, there's a good chance 1 of those stars (Gonzalez) is gone by 2012.

So while this may look like a season in the right direction for San Diego, they probably should still realize that this team, while it certainly has SOME nice, young pieces, isn't built for the future as is, and they'd be wise to deal Adrian Gonzalez while they still can (if not extend him).

Edited by nmigliore

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Its really sad how the Padres have stumbled so much down the stretch and need a lot to go right this weekend in order to get in to the playoffs. And while they made a surprising run this year, I'm not sold at all that they are built well for the future with this current group. I mean Mat Latos is absolutely one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Clayton Richard is pretty good too, and their bullpen was #1 in baseball this year, but after that... there just isn't much to like. What futures do Correia and Garland have with this team? Wade LeBlanc's ERA might look good in the low-4's, but deeper stats indicate hes probably not much more than a mediocre #5, and that's probably being nice. Position player-wise, you have Adrian Gonzalez, who is a star, but is destined for free agency in another year barring an extension. Kyle Blanks missed most of this season but hes got some good upside. Headley was excellent defensively at 3B this year (+14.1 UZR, +19 DRS) though expecting him to routinely do that isn't right. Will Venable was pretty decent overall too (2.8 WAR in 432 PA), and they made a nice trade to get Ryan Ludwick, but really, there just isn't much to like here. Yorvit Torrealba? The Hairstons? David Eckstein? Tony Gwynn Jr.? Bleh.

I'm not really knowledgeable about their farm system, but this current team that led the NL West for the majority of this season really isn't a team to build around. You got the star players like Mat Latos and Adrian Gonzalez along with a top-tier bullpen (though lets not forget bullpens can be pretty volatile year to year), but there just isn't a whole lot after that, and like I said, there's a good chance 1 of those stars (Gonzalez) is gone by 2012.

So while this may look like a season in the right direction for San Diego, they probably should still realize that this team, while it certainly has SOME nice, young pieces, isn't built for the future as is, and they'd be wise to deal Adrian Gonzalez while they still can (if not extend him).

san diego needs hitting. they were winning game by scoring only a few runs. their pitching is amazing and sadly they may need to trade one or two of them to get some sluggers

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their pitching is amazing

I don't really agree with that; I mean their bullpen was definitely amazing, but like I said, bullpens can be pretty volatile year to year. Mat Latos is an ace and Clayton Richard looks pretty good too (though he is 27, which is older than I originally thought), but after that, there are 3 question marks in their rotation. Wade LeBlanc is a #5 starter at best; Fangraph's WAR system put him below replacement level this year. Kevin Correia was also replacement level this year, and hes an impending free agent anyway. Jon Garland is... well, Jon Garland; a durable back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but hes not that valuable, and hes not on the young side.

They can build their rotation around Latos and Richard I suppose, but with guys like Correia, Garland, and LeBlanc? No way. That's just not going to cut it, especially with how weak of a lineup they put out there.

Edited by nmigliore

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Problem is, can the Padres even help themselves?

I know that they've been a low-budget team for a while now, and I'm not sure they're going to want to try and help themselves out.

Their best plan, TBH, is probably to trade Heath Bell for an impact bat if they plan on contending in '11. Even at $6MM (which MLBTR figures he'll get through arb raises), Bell should appeal to several teams looking for closing help. I'm just not sure who the Padres would want for it.

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Their best plan, TBH, is probably to trade Heath Bell for an impact bat if they plan on contending in '11. Even at $6MM (which MLBTR figures he'll get through arb raises), Bell should appeal to several teams looking for closing help. I'm just not sure who the Padres would want for it.

Absolutely. Relievers get overvalued anyway, and their bullpen can survive without him. The problem is Heath Bell at 1 year (hes a free agent in 2012) vs Bell at multiple years makes him less attractive. I don't think he brings back an impact bat, but that's just a guess on my part. We'll see, should they opt to move him.

Extending or trading Adrian Gonzalez should be their primary plan though. If they want to trade him, get it done over the winter; the longer they wait (lets say they hang onto him until next year's deadline), the weaker return they'll get.

Edited by nmigliore

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Absolutely. Relievers get overvalued anyway, and their bullpen can survive without him. The problem is Heath Bell at 1 year (hes a free agent in 2012) vs Bell at multiple years makes him less attractive. I don't think he brings back an impact bat, but that's just a guess on my part. We'll see, should they opt to move him.

Extending or trading Adrian Gonzalez should be their primary plan though. If they want to trade him, get it done over the winter; the longer they wait (lets say they hang onto him until next year's deadline), the weaker return they'll get.

Agreed on Gonzalez. Their closing meeting in 2010, whether it's next week or in November, should start with what to do about Adrian.

As for Bell, what if the Padres brought an old NBA favorite to MLB...the good ol' Sign 'n' Trade! See if Bell extends for 1-2 additional years, then flip him to a contender with an excess of bats.

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A recent Fangraphs' article inspired this thought, but, I really never noticed what an outstanding season Justin Morneau has had, even though he hasn't played since July. Hes totaled a +5.3 fWAR in only 348 PA this season, or, in simpler terms: a .345/.437/.618 slash line and an UZR just under +10 at 1B. That's nuts. I know its dangerous to play the 'on pace for ...' game, and I'm sure he would have regressed at least some, but over 600 PA, that translates to an fWAR above 9!

It would have been really sweet to see him and Hamilton duke it out for the AL MVP down the stretch opposed to Hamilton so easily running away with it like he is. Oh what could have been....

Hes supposedly going to be out at least until the ALCS, which really stinks for the Twins, though they are already very well-balanced as is: 3rd in AL in wOBA, 3rd in AL in starting pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in relief pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in UZR/2nd in AL in DRS. If they can squeak past the Yankees or Rays in the ALDS and then get Morneau back, watch out.

Edited by nmigliore

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A recent Fangraphs' article inspired this thought, but, I really never noticed what an outstanding season Justin Morneau has had, even though he hasn't played since July. Hes totaled a +5.3 fWAR in only 348 PA this season, or, in simpler terms: a .345/.437/.618 slash line and an UZR just under +10 at 1B. That's nuts. I know its dangerous to play the 'on pace for ...' game, and I'm sure he would have regressed at least some, but over 600 PA, that translates to an fWAR above 9!

It would have been really sweet to see him and Hamilton duke it out for the AL MVP down the stretch opposed to Hamilton so easily running away with it like he is. Oh what could have been....

Hes supposedly going to be out at least until the ALCS, which really stinks for the Twins, though they are already very well-balanced as is: 3rd in AL in wOBA, 3rd in AL in starting pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in relief pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in UZR/2nd in AL in DRS. If they can squeak past the Yankees or Rays in the ALDS and then get Morneau back, watch out.

Morneau was just tearing up the league before the concussion. Speaking of MVP and awards...anyone have a problem with Hamilton, Votto, King Felix, and Halladay for the big 4 awards?

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Morneau was just tearing up the league before the concussion. Speaking of MVP and awards...anyone have a problem with Hamilton, Votto, King Felix, and Halladay for the big 4 awards?

I'd go with: Josh Hamilton for AL MVP, Joey Votto for NL MVP, Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young (this is definitely the most difficult choice, but I went with WAR, FIP, tERA, and xFIP as the 4 deciding factors between Lee and King Felix, and Lee wins in all 4), Roy Halladay for NL Cy Young, Austin Jackson for AL RoY, and Buster Posey for NL RoY.

Edit: I just threw in tERA for the heck of it and Lee won in that too. I do find it shocking Felix isn't on top of at least 1 of those 4 stats (though WAR/FIP kinda go hand-in-hand to a degree). I guess Lee really is just that damn good.

Edited by nmigliore

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I'd go with: Josh Hamilton for AL MVP, Joey Votto for NL MVP, Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young (this is definitely the most difficult choice, but I went with WAR, FIP, and xFIP as the 3 deciding factors between Lee and King Felix, and Lee wins in all 3), Roy Halladay for NL Cy Young, Austin Jackson for AL RoY, and Buster Posey for NL RoY.

It is pretty funny that the old school guys look simply at a pitcher's wins and how good their teams are, while a guy like me might look at ERA, WHIP, IP, etc and you are going further with the heavy duty advanced stats. I don't know though...Hernandez has an ERA almost 1 point below Lee...has pitched a ton more innings.

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It is pretty funny that the old school guys look simply at a pitcher's wins and how good their teams are, while a guy like me might look at ERA, WHIP, IP, etc and you are going further with the heavy duty advanced stats. I don't know though...Hernandez has an ERA almost 1 point below Lee...has pitched a ton more innings.

Its tough. If Felix wins, I won't complain, that's for sure. There is absolutely a case to be made that he deserves it.

The only reason I don't really like ERA and WHIP is because they have a reliance on things that aren't really in a pitcher's control, such as defense (which is a factor in hits in WHIP, and in turn ERA) and ballparks. A pitcher who pitches behind an excellent defense is probably going to have a decent ERA despite weak peripherals (see: Jarrod Washburn last year - 2.64 ERA with Seattle despite his FIP being over a full run higher at 3.80)*. And vice versa - a pitcher who pitches behind a bad defensive team might have a higher ERA than he should. But hey, at least its better than going by win-loss records and being on a winning team. I'm not trying to pick on a Yankee here, but you just know CC Sabathia will get his share of Cy Young votes for his 21 wins, and to a lesser degree, being on 1 of the best teams in baseball, when in reality, there is probably 7 to 10 more deserving candidates.

* - A 3.80 FIP is not weak, but you get what I mean.

Edit: I should clarify that I don't find WHIP to be totally useless. I just don't personally use it that often due to the hit factor, which is related to BABIP/defense. Its mainly ERA that I'm picking with, and its to a point where I rarely look at it. I always jump straight to FIP since its a better indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching. Its like I mentioned above - a pitcher could have weak peripherals and a good ERA while another pitcher could have good peripherals and a poor ERA; should the pitcher with weak peripherals/good ERA get the credit for being better? I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. In this case, while its obviously not as extreme as as the example I just said, Lee has been better. Even when you factor in the innings, which is what WAR does, the advantage still goes to Lee. And then there is tERA, which basically extends off of FIP and factors in batted balls (so obviously a pitcher with a high line drive rate against and a weak groundball rate isn't going to have a nice looking tERA), and that stat also favors Lee. I can even go a bit further and use one of Baseball Prospectus' tools, SIERA: 'Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck.' Felix's SIERA: 3.19 .. Lee's SIERA: 3.03.

I'm not trying to rag on Felix here either. Hes been outstanding this year. Has he been better than Cliff Lee? Like I've said: its tough. You can't go wrong with either as a Cy Young choice. I just tend to lean towards the advanced stats, which say Lee gets the edge.

Edited by nmigliore

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Holy crap, the Marlins just dealt Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn.

That's right. Dan Uggla for a utility infielder, who will be a free agent next year, and a reliever. Their all-time HR leader and one of the best hitting 2B in baseball to a division rival for a crappy, zero-upside return. Uggla is a free agent next year, but man, you have to do better than that.

What a pathetic franchise. I feel bad for Marlins fans, I really do.

Edited by nmigliore

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Wow. That was theft. I hate to think what kind of dreck other teams were offering. Infante is a capable player but also a FA after next season. People here were concerned what kind of fleecing they were going to see when the Braves traded for Upton. Of course, their infield defense takes a big hit unless you move Uggala to the OF.

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Why wouldn't the Marlins just keep him and take the picks? Now the Braves get the picks which is worth what they gave up alone if not much more. This trade makes no sense.

Edited by devilsrule33

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I should note I don't think Infante is a crappy player (which it looks like I'm saying in the original post). I think he'll bring some decent value to the Marlins next season for only being paid $2.5M. But in terms of upside, its really nothing, and hes a free agent after the season. The deal would look a lot better if Infante was younger and cost-controlled for more years, or even if he projected as a Type-A. Dunn, a flyball reliever with control issues, is really the only "given" future player the Marlins are acquiring here, which really makes this deal bad.

Edited by nmigliore

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John Buck is a Marlin for 3/$18. Thoughts? I'm just happy the Red Sox didn't get him, since he was one of their primary targets.

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