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devilsrule33

2010 MLB Thread

200 posts in this topic

John Buck is a Marlin for 3/$18. Thoughts? I'm just happy the Red Sox didn't get him, since he was one of their primary targets.

Fills their catching hole, but 3 years at $6M per seems quite excessive for a catcher with Buck's skillset. He doesn't walk much anymore, he strikes out a lot, but since hes more of an aggressive hitter now, hes hitting for more power. The problem is if pitchers start catching on to his aggressive tendencies (and I'm sure they will), his power is likely going to regress, and once that happens, he won't be any good. For 1 year with some kind of option thrown in I think it would be okay, but 3 years is too much IMO. Don't get me wrong either, Buck was quietly a top-10 hitting catcher this year, and he wasn't that bad the year prior, but I'd just doubt that pitchers never make an adjustment when pitching to him.

Keith Law had a funny take on Buck in his free agent rankings list (he ranked Buck 49 out of 50):

It's possible that Buck just found himself once he got out of Kansas City and had the chance to play nearly every day, or it's possible that a dead fastball hitter changed his approach to try to boost his home run total in his walk year, with a little help from Toronto's homer-friendly ballpark and a fortunate schedule.

:lol:

Edited by nmigliore

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So the Cy Young awards were handed out this week. Unsurprisingly, Roy Halladay took home the award for the NL, and it was announced today that Felix Hernandez won it for the AL. Good for King Felix. I said it weeks ago that I would not oppose him winning it, as you can easily make a strong case that he should win it over Lee. I'm just glad they didn't do something dumb like give it to Sabathia or Price.

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Holy.... Werth just got $126M over 7 years from the Natinals Nationals.

:rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Perhaps the funniest part of this deal is that its going to be a nice, big albatross on their payroll when they finally do become competitive (opposed to looking "okay" like it would over the next season or 2).

Crazy.

Edited by nmigliore

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Dear god that is a brutal deal for Werth.

is it frontloaded at least?

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Edit: My bad, wrong thread.

Edited by nmigliore

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Crawford to the Red Sox. Wow. That has to put the Sox as the team to beat this year.

Just an insane amount of money though. Way too much.

Edited by devilsrule33

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That's a lot of money indeed. The market is insane this year. This really helps Boston short-term, that's for sure. Long-term wise, it seems very risky. Crawford accumulated a total of +26.4 Fangraphs' WAR in his past 7 seasons, his age 22 to 28 seasons, which translates to about $119M of value using $4.5M per 1 WAR. I think Crawford will be a valuable player through the course of the deal -- barring any leg injuries (boy that would be a killer) -- and I'm sure he has a few +5 win years left in him, but I don't think I could see him being worth that much money all the way through his age 35 season. That really is a ton of money so heavily tied into speed and defense.

I think Crawford's defense would be more utilized in RF at Fenway, so it'll be interesting to see if they make a switch.

By the way, this probably locks up Lee to the Yankees.

Edited by nmigliore

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By the way, this probably locks up Lee to the Yankees.

I'm not getting that feeling. I have a hunch the Yankees will be left holding a bag of money.

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I'm not getting that feeling. I have a hunch the Yankees will be left holding a bag of money.

I understand Lee is all about the cash, but turning down any of 5/125, 6/144, or 7/161 is insanity unless the Rangers or Angels can beat 7/161. I'm not sure they're willing to do it.

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I understand Lee is all about the cash, but turning down any of 5/125, 6/144, or 7/161 is insanity unless the Rangers or Angels can beat 7/161. I'm not sure they're willing to do it.

It makes perfect sense for him to go to the Yankees, but I have a feeling (no proof) that Lee's using the Yankees to get the price from another team (probably Texas) as high as possible.

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I'm not getting that feeling. I have a hunch the Yankees will be left holding a bag of money.

I'm more inclined to agree with nmig, at the very least everyone else other than Texas can take their bats and gloves and go home now and the only way Texas has a hope of getting him is if they offer six years at the very least (supposedly they didn't want to go above five) and the offer's competitive enough with the lack of a state income tax that he can justify leaving a 'few' million on the table.

Texas better go six years though, if they're offering five and the Yankees have 7-160 out there then fuggedaboutit.

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The Yankees' top target going into the offseason was always Cliff Lee. With the Red Sox acquiring 2 of the better position players in baseball, I sense there would be even more urgency on the Yankees' part to get a deal done with him. Not to mention Crawford, a possible Yankee target should they not get Lee, is now off the table.

Yesterday we heard Cashman wasn't going past 6 years. Today, they supposedly are offering 7 years. It'll happen.

Edited by nmigliore

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You guys are probably right, but I sense something unexpected will happen, and I sense he is playing the Yankees, and suspect Texas might get "close enough."

It's pretty exciting though, isn't it? Hot stove baseball often is.

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The Yankees' top target going into the offseason was always Cliff Lee. With the Red Sox acquiring 2 of the better position players in baseball, I sense there would be even more urgency on the Yankees' part to get a deal done with him. Not to mention Crawford, a possible Yankee target should they not get Lee, is now off the table.

Yesterday we heard Cashman wasn't going past 6 years. Today, they supposedly are offering 7 years. It'll happen.

The Red Sox signing Crawford is brilliant....FOR THE YANKEES

He sucks at Fenway.

From Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/10/AR2010121006172.html

Throughout his career, Crawford has hit Red Sox pitching just as well as he has hit against everybody else - that is, as long as the games were in Tropicana Field. There, he had a flashy slash line of .327/.363/.482. But in lopsided Fenway Park, which works against all his tendencies as a hitter, Crawford has only hit one home run every 85 at-bats. In 338 career plate appearances in Fenway, a large sample over many years, he has an ugly .275/.301/.406 line.

There's a name for speedy, weak-armed left fielders with those numbers. They're called AAAA players. Or young prospects. Many teams have one. The Nats' example is Roger Bernadina, except he can throw. Last year, Crawford's OPS was "only" 75 points lower in Fenway than elsewhere.

Obviously, Crawford will get used to Fenway, but he already plays there a buttload because of being from an AL East team.

As for Lee, I dont blame the guy for taking his time. These are huge contracts being offered and its a big move espc if he goes to NY because of how different it is from the other markets he's played in with Philly being the only comparable one.

Its hard to call this time though. I felt CC was a Yankee from the moment that offseason began. Lee wouldnt surprise me which he goes. I dont feel he's stringing anyone along either, its a gigantic contract and a long-term commitment. Both teams are going to be in the thick of races for a while as well, especially with Texas signing that massive TV deal and an owner willing to spend.

Apparently, Texas' initial offer was 5 yrs/100 million with incentives and options.

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I'm not a big fan of the deal either, but to call Crawford a AAA player based off of that Fenway stat is ridiculous. Its worth pointing out Tropicana has ranked as a much less forgiving park for hitters compared to Fenway too. Crawford is one of the best outfielders in baseball; his +27.2 WAR since 2005 ranks 3rd best among all outfielders and his total +12.5 WAR in 2009 and 2010 (combined) ranks tied for 1st among all outfielders. I'm sure he'll get over his Fenway woes and be quite useful to the Red Sox even if he ends up not being worth what hes getting paid in the latter years.

I also just noticed those career Fenway numbers are mostly dictated by plate discipline:

Crawford career at Fenway, Crawford career

Isolated power (ISO): .133, .148

Extra-base hit percentage (XBH%): 9.2%, 7.9%

BABIP: .327, .331

BB%: 2.6%, 5.4%

K%: 19.1%, 15.4%

So Fenway has not taken away much of his overall power, his extra-base hit percentage is actually stronger at Fenway than it is for his career, and the park has not taken away many hits from his balls in play compared to his career rate. What has hurt Crawford at Fenway over his career is poor plate discipline numbers relative to his career.

Edited by nmigliore

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TBF he called him a AAAA player ;) with that stat-line at Fenway, its not unfair to say that now. I think Crawford is going to prove it wrong eventually, but the Yankees have no need to knee-jerk. The Red Sox have done the kneejerking this offseason. The Yanks' plan of attack has been Lee since the get-go.

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Yeah but to pick out a spattered 300+ PA at Fenway and label him a non-Major Leaguer is pretty silly*, especially when you see those numbers are mostly dictated by poor plate discipline rather than the actual park itself (check my post above, I think I edited after you got your post in).

* - Derek Jeter has a career .701 OPS at Fenway over 561 career PA. Is he a AAAA player too? :D

Crawford is a great hitter who plays excellent outfield defense. Again, I'm not sure I agree with the notion that he'll be worth an average annual salary of of $20M+ over the next 7 seasons, but, I'd probably bet on him at least having some decent value every season in Boston barring any injuries.

Edited by nmigliore

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Cliff Lee looks Philly bound. So much for that Yankees theory.

Ugh. As a Mets fan, of all places for Lee to go, that is the one place I really didn't want him to go. Oy vey. :argh:

Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt has the chance to be historically good. The NL East is going to be hell for at least another few years.

Edited by nmigliore

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Cliff Lee looks Philly bound. So much for that Yankees theory.

Ugh. As a Mets fan, of all places for Lee to go, that is the one place I really didn't want him to go. Oy vey. :argh:

Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt has the chance to be historically good. The NL East is going to be hell for at least another few years.

As a Yankee fan I'm pissed. As someone who hates everything to do with Philly I'm pissed. What a horrible night. Heyman said official decision may come early tomorrow...also he may be leaving $50-70M on the table...MLBPA can't be happy with that.

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As a Yankee fan I'm pissed. As someone who hates everything to do with Philly I'm pissed. What a horrible night. Heyman said official decision may come early tomorrow...also he may be leaving $50-70M on the table...MLBPA can't be happy with that.

It sucks to miss out on a player you figure to have right from the start of the offseason, but hey, at least hes not in your division or even the same league. As a Mets fan, its going to really suck having to compete with the Phils' rotation for years to come. However, if there is a silver lining, its that investing huge money into aging, 30+ year old players doesn't always work out too well for the future. I hope they are a mess in a few years from now.

PatrickJFlood

Complete list of Phillies who will be under age 30 in 2011: Cole Hamels, Domonic Brown. #mysteryteam

If the Phils sign Lee for what he'll likely cost they'll have $75+ mil committed in 2013 to four players, the youngest of whom will be 33.

That's pretty pathetic, but hey, they are doing their best to capitalize on winning championships while they have their window of opportunity.

Suddenly the 2nd wild card idea looks a lot more appealing to me too.

Btw, speaking of Heyman, he has to be the biggest tool out there. I love how debunked the Phils from being a mystery team earlier today or yesterday. He sure nailed that one; good stuff Jon.

Edited by nmigliore

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It sucks to miss out on a player you figure to have right from the start of the offseason, but hey, at least hes not in your division or even the same league. As a Mets fan, its going to really suck having to compete with the Phils' rotation for years to come. Hopefully Halladay and Lee hit the decline sooner than later, but I'm not holding my breathe.

Suddenly the 2nd wild card idea looks a lot more appealing to me too.

Btw, speaking of Heyman, he has to be the biggest tool out there. I love how debunked the Phils from being a mystery team earlier today or yesterday. He sure nailed that one; good stuff Jon.

I hear ya man, I actually feel bad since a lot of my friends that follow baseball are Met fans. Like you said I'm hoping Halladay and Lee hit the decline sooner rather than later.

Yeah, I really hate Heyman and for the most part I don't take anything he says as truth unless there are other guys reporting it too. I hate how he is like a propaganda mouthpiece for Boras in previous offseasons.

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Looks like the Yanks are out of the Lee race...

http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_RosenthaI/status/14531134461321216

It's (almost) official: Lee has reached a tentative agreement with the #Phillies, he is waiting to see if the #Rangers will offer 8yrs. #MLB

Fake Rosenthal acct according to MLB Trade Rumors (who first retweeted that)

Edited by ghdi

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God, I hate sports right now. The Devils have been sucked down into the tenth level of hell for the last year, the Jets are in the midst of a collapse to end all collapses and now the baseball season's over before it begins.

I didn't think it could get worse than Lee going to the Yankees but going back to the Phillies is a total and horrendous nightmare. Just play the Red Sox-Yankees ALCS and then the winner plays the Phillies in the World Series right now and spend the rest of the time haggling over the next CBA :P

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