Triumph

Off-season Plan, Parts 1, 2, and 2½

77 posts in this topic

Tri, one thing that doesn't add up to me with your teams is the lack of youth added. Only Vladimir Zharkov is mentioned making the team. That would leave Tedenby, Halischuk, Henrique, Josefson, Vasyunov, Palmieri, McIntyre all in lowell. That would leave around 447 000 in AHL salaries in 7 forwards, that is unheard of for a team as stingy as the Devils plus not enough ice time to go around. You still have Swift, Nagy, Perkovich and Mills who were all getting significant ice time under MacLean.

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Tri, one thing that doesn't add up to me with your teams is the lack of youth added. Only Vladimir Zharkov is mentioned making the team. That would leave Tedenby, Halischuk, Henrique, Josefson, Vasyunov, Palmieri, McIntyre all in lowell. That would leave around 447 000 in AHL salaries in 7 forwards, that is unheard of for a team as stingy as the Devils plus not enough ice time to go around. You still have Swift, Nagy, Perkovich and Mills who were all getting significant ice time under MacLean.

for one, martin is way better than hamhuis, and how often have hamhuis's teams won a round in the playoffs...?

i don't see how this is a problem at all. AHL salaries are around 50k-100k in general. swift, perkovich, nagy, and mills have almost no NHL shot, so what does it matter if they don't get much ice time? vasuynov is a non-prospect as well. halischuk will probably get a shot once again, but he wasn't very good, and he can't seem to stay healthy. also these were written before josefson and tedenby were signed IIRC.

Edited by Triumph

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for one, martin is way better than hamhuis, and how often have hamhuis's teams won a round in the playoffs...?

About as often as Martin's recently.

i don't see how this is a problem at all. AHL salaries are around 50k-100k in general. swift, perkovich, nagy, and mills have almost no NHL shot, so what does it matter if they don't get much ice time? vasuynov is a non-prospect as well. halischuk will probably get a shot once again, but he wasn't very good, and he can't seem to stay healthy. also these were written before josefson and tedenby were signed IIRC.

I think Haluschuk can have an upside on the 3rd line on a younger Devils team as opposed to being thrown on the 4th line. He's had some moments in the AHL.

Edited by Devil Dan 56

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The 2 mil cap increase would undoubtedly let the Devils sign Kovalchuk, Martin, and Clarkson. Unfortunately, that still doesn't make Zach Parise a safe bet for the next offseason. With the economy being how it is, wouldn't we expect the cap to eventually freeze or go down? It can't keep going up like this every year.

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The 2 mil cap increase would undoubtedly let the Devils sign Kovalchuk, Martin, and Clarkson. Unfortunately, that still doesn't make Zach Parise a safe bet for the next offseason. With the economy being how it is, wouldn't we expect the cap to eventually freeze or go down? It can't keep going up like this every year.

This is true. Langenbrunner and Pandolfo's contracts will both be up next year, which will free up some space (5.3 million). Greene will also need to be re-signed. The Devils could be out of the woods if they pull that off, because the following year, Rolston, White, and Salvador are all UFA, assuming they are all Devils by then. That's another 10.962. Oh, and Brodeur will also be UFA. If Marty retires (cue LD dancing), that's 16.162 all coming off at once.

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This is true. Langenbrunner and Pandolfo's contracts will both be up next year, which will free up some space (5.3 million). Greene will also need to be re-signed. The Devils could be out of the woods if they pull that off, because the following year, Rolston, White, and Salvador are all UFA, assuming they are all Devils by then. That's another 10.962. Oh, and Brodeur will also be UFA. If Marty retires (cue LD dancing), that's 16.162 all coming off at once.

I don't want Lou's job that's for sure. Because a lot of guys are coming off the book soon... but they have to be replaced. The rookies have to pan out... Josefson, Tedenby, Zharkov, Corrente, Eckford, Halischuk, Vasyunov, Burlon, Henrique, Urbom and so on. They will need to get paid as well. If we plan on getting Marty's number off the books, he obviously needs to be replaced as well.

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I don't want Lou's job that's for sure. Because a lot of guys are coming off the book soon... but they have to be replaced. The rookies have to pan out... Josefson, Tedenby, Zharkov, Corrente, Eckford, Halischuk, Vasyunov, Burlon, Henrique, Urbom and so on. They will need to get paid as well. If we plan on getting Marty's number off the books, he obviously needs to be replaced as well.

and maybe this is why MacLean will stay in Lowell (albany).... If Johnny does not get the NJ head coaching job, it might be because he wants him to stay working with the young talent for now (another year)...

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The 2 mil cap increase would undoubtedly let the Devils sign Kovalchuk, Martin, and Clarkson. Unfortunately, that still doesn't make Zach Parise a safe bet for the next offseason. With the economy being how it is, wouldn't we expect the cap to eventually freeze or go down? It can't keep going up like this every year.

i believe it's mostly going up this year because of the canadian dollar doing well against the american dollar.

brodeur is the player i am least concerned about replacing.

i think the devils can still afford to sign kovalchuk and martin, even though i think it's very unlikely that they do, and they can afford them both long-term as well. the year after rolston, salvador, and white come off the books, elias, zubrus, and zajac come off the books. that happens to be the year where, theoretically, tedenby, josefson, urbom, and henrique would all be due new contracts.

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I don't want Lou's job that's for sure. Because a lot of guys are coming off the book soon... but they have to be replaced. The rookies have to pan out... Josefson, Tedenby, Zharkov, Corrente, Eckford, Halischuk, Vasyunov, Burlon, Henrique, Urbom and so on. They will need to get paid as well. If we plan on getting Marty's number off the books, he obviously needs to be replaced as well.

Oh, definitely, but you'd have to figure some of those youngsters will work out, plus I don't think the Devils have had that kind of cap space since the cap was brought into the league. And I think we all agree guys like Rolston and Pando are replaceable for less money. It will be very interesting to see what happens with the goaltending. I'd hope Corrente can step in for White/Salvador.

Either way, the next 2-3 years will be ones of big (and possible much needed) change.

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i believe it's mostly going up this year because of the canadian dollar doing well against the american dollar.

brodeur is the player i am least concerned about replacing.

i think the devils can still afford to sign kovalchuk and martin, even though i think it's very unlikely that they do, and they can afford them both long-term as well. the year after rolston, salvador, and white come off the books, elias, zubrus, and zajac come off the books. that happens to be the year where, theoretically, tedenby, josefson, urbom, and henrique would all be due new contracts.

It will be interesting to see what those 4 (Tedenby, Josefson, Urbom, Henrique) are going to be worth. It will also be interesting to see what kind of player Zajac is by then.

I think you continue to underestimate goaltending, especially considering that you attributed Montreal's playoff success to goaltending at the top of page 3 in this thread.

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It will be interesting to see what those 4 (Tedenby, Josefson, Urbom, Henrique) are going to be worth. It will also be interesting to see what kind of player Zajac is by then.

I think you continue to underestimate goaltending, especially considering that you attributed Montreal's playoff success to goaltending at the top of page 3 in this thread.

sure i did. that doesn't mean that halak is better than most other goaltenders, it just means that he got hot at the right time. when he faltered, montreal faltered. goaltending is valuable, it's hard to win without it, but it's also real hard to tell who's good at it, and just about any NHL-quality goalie can get hot.

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Okay, I whipped this up for a possible Kovalchuk signing where we also sign a top free agent defensemen, referred to as 'John Everyman'. Again, the only year we're really in trouble is 2011-12. If we can get rid of Pandolfo this coming year and Salvador the year after, it might work out.

devils_scenario_3.png

Green is for estimated salaries. I've also included the number of forwards, defensemen, and goalies that the team will have signed each year. This is a pretty rosy outlook of course.

Edited by Triumph

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john everyman @ $4.5MM is not a top defenseman unfortunately. that number has to be $5.5 realistically because that's about what martin will get and he's the best of the bunch.

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john everyman @ $4.5MM is not a top defenseman unfortunately. that number has to be $5.5 realistically because that's about what martin will get and he's the best of the bunch.

obviously by top defenseman i am referring to one of the best D available on the FA market and not an actually great defenseman. the $4.5 million is an average.

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How about Johnny Everyman being Leopold at $2.5M and Foster at $2M?

i don't trust foster to continue his good play. i haven't examined whether or not his performance was fluky.

leopold is basically a mottau who can skate. i don't really want that, either. no, the devils need a top defender to take difficult minutes, and neither of these guys can do that. i know paul martin can do it.

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i don't trust foster to continue his good play. i haven't examined whether or not his performance was fluky.

leopold is basically a mottau who can skate. i don't really want that, either. no, the devils need a top defender to take difficult minutes, and neither of these guys can do that. i know paul martin can do it.

Martin was given a chance the past three playoffs and failed each year. He is a career -11 in 42 playoff games. Greene has shown this season that he can essentially play most of Martin's minutes, throw the bank at Volchenkov, someone who is tough to play against.

If it were up to me my defense would look something along this.

Volchenkov

Greene

White

Salvador

Salmela

Taormina

Corrente

Edited by Jas0nMacIsaac

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Martin was given a chance the past three playoffs and failed each year. He is a career -11 in 42 playoff games. Greene has shown this season that he can essentially play most of Martin's minutes, throw the bank at Volchenkov, someone who is tough to play against.

where do i even start with this one.

1: greene probably can't play martin's minutes. greene was sheltered much more than you think.

2: lol small sample sizes about martin's -11, as if that proves anything at all. the devils are what, 15-27 in those games? yeah, i can't believe he's not a + player playing mostly the toughest minutes with a goalie who can't make a save at even strength.

3: volchenkov isn't even close to being worth what martin is and whoever signs him is probably making a very large mistake. volchenkov is replacement-level on offense, his only value comes from defense, and there's just no way that he prevents very many goals; certainly not enough to justify the money he'll get.

Edited by Triumph

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where do i even start with this one.

1: greene probably can't play martin's minutes. greene was sheltered much more than you think.

2: lol small sample sizes about martin's -11, as if that proves anything at all. the devils are what, 15-27 in those games? yeah, i can't believe he's not a + player playing mostly the toughest minutes with a goalie who can't make a save at even strength.

3: volchenkov isn't even close to being worth what martin is and whoever signs him is probably making a very large mistake. volchenkov is replacement-level on offense, his only value comes from defense, and there's just no way that he prevents very many goals; certainly not enough to justify the money he'll get.

1.) Fine, White can eat most of Martin's tough minutes, Greene can still eat 23 + minutes a game which will do in my books at 737 500.

2.) Not a small sample size, it's simply fact. Martin has underachieved in the playoffs each year statistically and from a viewers standpoint. He is soft!

3.) Volchenkov isn't here for offense, he is there to shut the opponent down. This is something he has done well in the past in the post season and regular season. He makes the PK better, he blocks shots. He is everything you want in a shutdown defensmen.

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1.) Fine, White can eat most of Martin's tough minutes, Greene can still eat 23 + minutes a game which will do in my books at 737 500.

both of those players will do that anyway.

2.) Not a small sample size, it's simply fact. Martin has underachieved in the playoffs each year statistically and from a viewers standpoint. He is soft!

great. you want to bet on brodeur's ES SV% when martin is on the ice? and martin's fenwick numbers? when your team is 15-27, it's hard to be a plus player.

3.) Volchenkov isn't here for offense, he is there to shut the opponent down. This is something he has done well in the past in the post season and regular season. He makes the PK better, he blocks shots. He is everything you want in a shutdown defensmen.

and then we get some handwaving about volchenkov. fine, he's everything i want in a shutdown defenseman, except i don't want a shutdown defenseman. volchenkov is hurt 15 games a year, and he's basically another goalie. i'm not convinced that his shot-blocking is of huge importance. i'll check out his penalty killing numbers tomorrow, but i doubt they'll turn up anything of massive significance. he is not at all worth the $5 million he's going to end up getting paid, because he doesn't really control the game territorially - all he does is keep some pucks out of my net and suppresses shots against. paul martin suppresses shots against but actually helps out on offensive as well. they'll get paid around the same amount and one team will be making a large mistake, and it won't be the team signing martin.

Edited by Triumph

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martin's fenwick in the playoffs last 3 years:

2008: +12

2009: +30

2010: +19

yeah get rid of this guy, bring on volchenkov

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You can only look at numbers for so long, why is it that great players like Pronger and Lidstrom always seem to be lucky in terms of these in depth numbers. There are far too many little things going on in a game to quantify. I don't expect top defensmen to do too much in terms of offense, that's why you keep Taormina along for soft situations in the offensive zone.

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You can only look at numbers for so long, why is it that great players like Pronger and Lidstrom always seem to be lucky in terms of these in depth numbers. There are far too many little things going on in a game to quantify. I don't expect top defensmen to do too much in terms of offense, that's why you keep Taormina along for soft situations in the offensive zone.

huh? now you're just blathering. pronger is an amazing territorial player, his game 1 of the cup finals is the best single game i think i've ever seen (not that i've seen many). pronger was +15 in fenwick while no one else on his team was above +5. someone counting scoring chances said that in game 1 the flyers had only 1 scoring chance where pronger wasn't on the ice.

i expect a top defenseman to do something on offense, otherwise he's not a top defenseman. you can't just be great in the defensive zone and be a great player anymore.

a player like volchenkov will help you win 1 goal games, and he is almost certainly a better penalty killer than paul martin, but martin is way better at 5 on 5, and that's where the majority of a game is played.

Edited by Triumph

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Speaking of Fenwick numbers (and any other metrics like it) is there a good site to check out for up to date numbers? Sort of how for baseball I normally go to Fangraphs or Baseball Reference since they have all the advanced metrics right there unlike mainstream sites.

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Greene looked burnt out until he was paired with the Devils' version of The Miracle Worker. But I guess Martin gets no credit for making everyone he plays with, from Oduya to Skoula to Greene, about 1,000,000x better?

Keep Martin. You can pair him with the worst, cheapest defenseman in the league and Martin will carry him well enough to make them a servicable second pairing. Give him a partner who's actually good on his own, something I don't think he's ever had, and maybe it'll actually be a formidable first pairing.

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