thefiestygoat

2011 New York Yankees Thread

261 posts in this topic

So I've had a couple of days now to digest this season's end, and overall it was a good season, I liked this team, but they were never championship material. They never were able to play from behind, that's what separated them from the '09 team, and in the end, that's what did them in. We can point fingers all we want, but in the end, everyone on the team had a chance to make a difference, and they all failed.

Anyway, it is what it is. I don't foresee to many changes this off-season other than a starter to go behind CC. They have some very good prospects coming up, and I think they may get their chance. I'm certainly excited for what next season may bring.

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Offseason fan debate.

Assuming Cashman's looking to unload a pitcher, would you trade AJ Burnett for Adam Dunn straight-up?

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Offseason fan debate.

Assuming Cashman's looking to unload a pitcher, would you trade AJ Burnett for Adam Dunn straight-up?

No, Adam Dunn had one of the worst seasons in baseball history last year, and it would even be that effective of a salary dump, as Dunn makes over $10 mil. Plus, unless I'm mistaken, I think this is Burnett's last year of his contract, no?

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No, Adam Dunn had one of the worst seasons in baseball history last year, and it would even be that effective of a salary dump, as Dunn makes over $10 mil. Plus, unless I'm mistaken, I think this is Burnett's last year of his contract, no?

He has two years, this one included.

It's more or less of a crapshoot, and it depends on if Dunn has 3 or 4 years of control left...but there's two schools of thought about it:

1) He's done, or

2) He'll get rejuvenation playing in a hitters' park surrounded by a better lineup then the ChiSox have.

Whereas AJ is, IMO, fvcked. He's a locker room guy, which is why I don't think the possibility would be entertained. But it's hard to predict anything good like that happening for AJ. And to be honest, as bad of a year as AJ had, you can probably get Dunn and prospect(s)/cash for him. Ken Williams is a sucker for these kind of trades too.

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I'd say no to a Burnett for Dunn swap even though the Yankees have an excess of starting pitchers and one could hope that Dunn turns it around into becoming part of the player he once was. The reason the trade doesn't make sense is from a stricly financial standpoint.

Burnett's Contract: 2012: $16.5M 2013: $16.5M

Dunn's Contract: 2012: $14M 2013: $15M 2014: $15M

Dunn's contract pays him into 2014 opposed to Burnett's which ends after 2013. The Yankees have numerous issues revolving around 2014. First and foremost, they are on record saying that they need to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold for financial reasons. They also will want to be in play to sign Hamels or Cain (though it looks like the Giants will lock him up). In addition to that, Granderson and Cano will be due big raises and it looks unlikely they'll be able to keep Swisher around. There is just no way the Yankees can afford to take on any salary on a risky player like Dunn in 2014. They'll already have to get creative to sign Hamels and keep their own players. Even without taking on salary, the Yankees may have to let Granderson go in order to sign Hamels unless Cashman can get really creative.

Sidenote: I really wish they locked up Cano last year or even this winter. They may have been able to negotiate a more favorable per year salary and they would've ended up signing him for more of his prime years as opposed to what they'll have to do after 2013 when he will be 31 and the long term deal he wlll get will eat up some of his decline years.

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Yanks will come to regretthe Montero trade. They traded the next Miguel Cabrera for a number 3 starter.

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Yanks will come to regretthe Montero trade. They traded the next Miguel Cabrera for a number 3 starter.

I've been meaning to post my thoughts on the trade but I just haven't had the time to collect them all. As someone who follows the minor leagues on a regular basis and remembers what it was like the day the Yankees signed Montero, I took the trade really hard. Montero had become one of my favorite prospects and like many other fans I viewed him as the next homegrown star. At first I was really taken aback from the move but the more I found out about Pineda and Campos the more I went from hating the trade to liking it. I'll post my reasons soon.

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I'd say no to a Burnett for Dunn swap even though the Yankees have an excess of starting pitchers and one could hope that Dunn turns it around into becoming part of the player he once was. The reason the trade doesn't make sense is from a stricly financial standpoint.

Burnett's Contract: 2012: $16.5M 2013: $16.5M

Dunn's Contract: 2012: $14M 2013: $15M 2014: $15M

Dunn's contract pays him into 2014 opposed to Burnett's which ends after 2013. The Yankees have numerous issues revolving around 2014. First and foremost, they are on record saying that they need to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold for financial reasons. They also will want to be in play to sign Hamels or Cain (though it looks like the Giants will lock him up). In addition to that, Granderson and Cano will be due big raises and it looks unlikely they'll be able to keep Swisher around. There is just no way the Yankees can afford to take on any salary on a risky player like Dunn in 2014. They'll already have to get creative to sign Hamels and keep their own players. Even without taking on salary, the Yankees may have to let Granderson go in order to sign Hamels unless Cashman can get really creative.

Sidenote: I really wish they locked up Cano last year or even this winter. They may have been able to negotiate a more favorable per year salary and they would've ended up signing him for more of his prime years as opposed to what they'll have to do after 2013 when he will be 31 and the long term deal he wlll get will eat up some of his decline years.

Yankee contract source

I really don't think the Yankees will get under $189 anytime soon unless they do a firesale to some other team. They're committed to ~$75 MM to 4 players in the 2014 year (Tex, CC, ARod, Jeter's option buyout). This assumes that Jeter is going to have his option declined/decline it himself or he will retire before the choice has to be made; it's probably closer to ~$85 million if that option gets picked up, and realistically if Cano continues to play at his level he's looking at a raise from his $14MM. For the purposes of this exercise, however, let's assume that Cano stays at a flat $14MM for that year. That means you have the following players under team control:

SP: CC, Nova (ARB1), Pineda (ARB1)

RP: Robertson (ARB3), Wade (ARB2)

C: Cervelli (ARB2)

1B: Tex

2B: Cano

3B: ARod

OF: Gardner (ARB3)

C: Cervelli (ARB2)

It's hard to project this salary with so many arb cases, but assuming we want to retain all of these guys in 2014, a salary of $120 MM right here is not unheard of considering ~$75 MM is due Tex/Arod/CC, and we're assuming that Cano bumps it up to $90 MM. That means we need a starting-caliber SS, at least one starting-caliber OF, a starting-caliber C, some guy to hit DH, a sh!t-ton of relievers (also assuming best-case that Robertson picks up where Mo left off after the end of his next contract) and another starter ON TOP OF signing Hamels. Yes our next SS and RF will probably come cheaper than the combined $25 MM that Jeter and Swisher make to help ease this pain, but the next realistic chance the Yankees have of getting under the L-Tax is probably the 2017 season, when CC and Tex drop off the books. This of course could also be jeopardized by the likely massive contract we're paying Hamels to come to New York.

EDIT: And this is one of the reasons I like the deal of Monteiro for Pineda: Pitchers are way more money than defensively-challenged offensive C/1B/DH's

Edited by Hi, I'm VALUE!

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If you're going to be an impactful DH, you better hit a ton. The bar is set very high for those that offer zero value in the field. Maybe Montero does that, or maybe he's more good than great a la Paul Konerko who topped out as a 4-win player.

Pineda looks really good. He posted the 6th best strikeout rate and was just outside of the game's top 40 qualified starting pitchers in WAR, and he did that as a rookie mostly working off of just 2 pitchers in his fastball and slider. If his changeup ever develops, allowing him to handle lefties better, he could take off, but even as is I think his floor is a 3-win pitcher, which is very valuable.

Jose Campos was a nice get too; he's raw and a bit a ways away, and a lot things can go wrong from here, but he is a high-ceiling prospect. The Braves snatched up a similar pitcher in Arodys Vizcaino a few years ago in the Javier Vazquez deal and he's blossomed into one of the game's better pitching prospects, granted his future may be in the bullpen.

Of course, the obvious caveats apply here -- pitchers are a way more riskier than hitters -- but I think the Yankees made out okay. I thought it was a nice deal for both sides.

Not a Yankee fan obviously, but that's just my opinion of the deal.

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I'm also skeptical about the Yankees getting under $189M in 2014 but they have come out to credible reporters like Sherman and said they plan on it because of the luxury tax. River Ave Blues tackled the whole luxury tax issue here and here, explaining the different scenarios and savings that the Yankees could accumulate. They also examined the payroll situation with some assumptions here and put up a spreadsheet here for you to play around with your own projections.

I'll try to post my projected roster and moves when I have a chance to sit down and think about it. Somehow they are going to have to get creative or make some tough choices if they are serious about getting below the luxury tax in 2014. One of the areas they can save a lot of money is the bullpen. It is easy to find cheap veterans and they have some guys in the system (Montgomery, Betances, Kontos) that I think could be cheap arms for them in 2014.

Edited by thefiestygoat

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Looks like the Yanks are done shopping for the most part for now. Bill Hall signs a minor league deal with an invite, and the Yanks are in talk to acquire Ibanez for somewhere in the $1-2MM range for part time DH/bench duty. Thoughts on this roster for the upcoming season?

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