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Patrik Elias wants to be a career Devil

39 posts in this topic

Can't argue that, overall, Patrik has been a good Devil, and has always come across as a good guy, and a classy one. Depending on what happens, he has an outside shot at notching 1000 points in a Devils uniform, which is obviously no small feat, since no one has yet to accomplish that wearing nothing but the red and black (or red and green).

But all of the nostalgic feelings can't obscure the fact that Elias hasn't really lived up to this deal, when assessing his production. I remember what the projections and hopes were when he signed...some were way over the top (I remember seeing someone predicting 100 assists?!), but think about what you were hoping for at the time he signed, and realistically expecting. If these numbers were listed for you, wouldn't you have found them a little disappointing?

75 GP, 21 G, 48 A, 69 Pts, +1, 7.9 shooting%

74 GP, 20 G, 35 A, 55 Pts, +10, 7.6 shooting%

77 GP, 31 G, 47 A, 78 Pts, +18, 12.6 shooting%

58 GP, 19 G, 29 A, 48 Pts, +18, 13.1 shooting%

48 GP, 13 G, 24 A, 37 Pts, -6, 10.4 shooting%

They're not terrible numbers, but I would say the 2008-09 season is the one that was really on par for what we were hoping for on a season-by-season basis. To be fair, overall over the last three seasons he has been better than he was in the first two post-signing...he was invisible for much of those first two seasons, and seemed to be in a fog for much of that time. It should also be noted that his '06-'07 and '07-'08 were brutal for Patrik from a shooting% perspective...Tri would probably argue that Patrik was incredibly unlucky those seasons, and to be fair, he was...I think he suffered severe neck cramps from looking up at the ceiling after yet another scoring chance gone awry.

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This. After Scotty, Patty is my second favorite Devil of all-time. #26 should absolutely go to the rafters one day.

+1

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It'll be interesting to see what kind of money Lou will offer Patty once this deal expires, and it'll be interesting to see if the people who want Patty to retire a Devil will still feel that way or begin calling for Lou's head.

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Can't argue that, overall, Patrik has been a good Devil, and has always come across as a good guy, and a classy one. Depending on what happens, he has an outside shot at notching 1000 points in a Devils uniform, which is obviously no small feat, since no one has yet to accomplish that wearing nothing but the red and black (or red and green).

But all of the nostalgic feelings can't obscure the fact that Elias hasn't really lived up to this deal, when assessing his production. I remember what the projections and hopes were when he signed...some were way over the top (I remember seeing someone predicting 100 assists?!), but think about what you were hoping for at the time he signed, and realistically expecting. If these numbers were listed for you, wouldn't you have found them a little disappointing?

75 GP, 21 G, 48 A, 69 Pts, +1, 7.9 shooting%

74 GP, 20 G, 35 A, 55 Pts, +10, 7.6 shooting%

77 GP, 31 G, 47 A, 78 Pts, +18, 12.6 shooting%

58 GP, 19 G, 29 A, 48 Pts, +18, 13.1 shooting%

48 GP, 13 G, 24 A, 37 Pts, -6, 10.4 shooting%

They're not terrible numbers, but I would say the 2008-09 season is the one that was really on par for what we were hoping for on a season-by-season basis. To be fair, overall over the last three seasons he has been better than he was in the first two post-signing...he was invisible for much of those first two seasons, and seemed to be in a fog for much of that time. It should also be noted that his '06-'07 and '07-'08 were brutal for Patrik from a shooting% perspective...Tri would probably argue that Patrik was incredibly unlucky those seasons, and to be fair, he was...I think he suffered severe neck cramps from looking up at the ceiling after yet another scoring chance gone awry.

everything needs context. elias has been thrown around from position to position. why did sutter move him back to LW in 08-09 after effectively burying rolston? i don't really know. why was he playing the point on the power play for two years? again, not sure. plus, as i've been saying a lot lately, the devils just don't get many power plays. that's going to affect every devil's point totals.

devils' number of PPs relative to league average:

2006-07: -21

2007-08: -31

2008-09: -33

2009-10: -32

2010-11: -33

so that's 150 power plays off the league average. that's just league average - imagine what teams who are consistently over the average can do. let's try some back-of-the-napkin math on this.

points per 100 power plays 06-07: 9

points per 100 power plays 07-08: 7

points per 100 power plays 08-09: 11

points per 100 power plays 09-10: 6

points per 100 power plays 10-11: 10

since the numbers here are going to be relatively small, i don't feel compelled to do the calculations. what is clear is that elias is missing 2 to 4 points a year relative to the rest of the league. that seems like a tiny amount, but when we're talking this way, it's instructive to consider things like this.

what i do know is that elias has been a master of driving the play. his rank in team CORSI since 07-08 -

07-08: 1st

08-09: 3rd

09-10: 4th

10-11: 1st

would i sign that contract again knowing what i know now? probably not, but it's much closer than it appears - elias is really underrated defensively. 05-06 was a very difficult year to evaluate, and teams are STILL making mistakes based on what happened that year.

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It also has to be taken into consideration that Elias nearly died from a virulent (and incorrectly treated) hepatitis infection during the lockout (another reason to thank Bob Goodenow). It took him a long time to recover from that on the ice and frankly, we'll never be sure how it effected him in the long term. Take a little edge off a player of that caliber and it can have a huge effect on output.

Elias is one of the most consistent, reliable, defensively responsible forwards this franchise has ever had. And he's transformed into quite the leader. Glad we have him, hope we can keep him for a good price after his deal expires.

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It also has to be taken into consideration that Elias nearly died from a virulent (and incorrectly treated) hepatitis infection during the lockout (another reason to thank Bob Goodenow). It took him a long time to recover from that on the ice and frankly, we'll never be sure how it effected him in the long term. Take a little edge off a player of that caliber and it can have a huge effect on output.

When he came back he put up one of his best PPG percentages for the rest of the year, so I don't see how that's true.

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Yeah for a brief, fleeting burst of half a season in the madness of the post-lockout redonkulous score-a-thon. I don't think you can hold that up as a statistical sample. Elias in 03-04 simply was a stronger, bigger player. It's certainly conjecture, but I think a fair one.

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everything needs context. elias has been thrown around from position to position. why did sutter move him back to LW in 08-09 after effectively burying rolston? i don't really know. why was he playing the point on the power play for two years? again, not sure. plus, as i've been saying a lot lately, the devils just don't get many power plays. that's going to affect every devil's point totals.

Part of the reason he's been thrown around has been his own doing (or lack of doing)...in '07-'08 it was done in an attempt to get him going, when he was mired in that 4 goals in 42 GP (over two seasons) stretch.

devils' number of PPs relative to league average:

2006-07: -21

2007-08: -31

2008-09: -33

2009-10: -32

2010-11: -33

so that's 150 power plays off the league average. that's just league average - imagine what teams who are consistently over the average can do. let's try some back-of-the-napkin math on this.

points per 100 power plays 06-07: 9

points per 100 power plays 07-08: 7

points per 100 power plays 08-09: 11

points per 100 power plays 09-10: 6

points per 100 power plays 10-11: 10

since the numbers here are going to be relatively small, i don't feel compelled to do the calculations. what is clear is that elias is missing 2 to 4 points a year relative to the rest of the league. that seems like a tiny amount, but when we're talking this way, it's instructive to consider things like this.

If you're going use this to excuse some of Elias' drop in production, can you do the same for his more productive seasons, as a point of reference?

what i do know is that elias has been a master of driving the play. his rank in team CORSI since 07-08 -

07-08: 1st

08-09: 3rd

09-10: 4th

10-11: 1st

would i sign that contract again knowing what i know now? probably not, but it's much closer than it appears - elias is really underrated defensively. 05-06 was a very difficult year to evaluate, and teams are STILL making mistakes based on what happened that year.

In bold: that was my point...he hasn't really lived up to this deal. And I said in my first post that it's not like it's been a disastrous return...just not really what we expected.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Career Devil? No thanks, unless he retires after his current deal.

you are the worst kind of people.

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When he came back he put up one of his best PPG percentages for the rest of the year, so I don't see how that's true.

Honestly though a LOT of scoring numbers were out of whack that year compared to the norm. Fvck, SCOTT GOMEZ had 30+ goals in 2005-06. Gionta had 48 and has never had another 30+ season (though he was on pace a couple of times before injuries). Johnathan Cheechoo had 56 and I don't think he's had that many the rest of his career, much less in a single season.

Career Devil? No thanks, unless he retires after his current deal.

I don't know how good a player he's going to be at the end of two plus years, it's possible he breaks down by then but if he does re-sign it assuredly isn't going to be at $6 million. If he maintains his current level of play I don't see why he wouldn't still be a big asset at a lesser salary though.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I don't know how good a player he's going to be at the end of two plus years, it's possible he breaks down by then but if he does re-sign it assuredly isn't going to be at $6 million. If he maintains his current level of play I don't see why he wouldn't still be a big asset at a lesser salary though.

...Because this is NJDevs, where we ridicule our best players, and wish them to be gone!

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When he came back he put up one of his best PPG percentages for the rest of the year, so I don't see how that's true.

Post hepatitis, he's been great for short stretches, but often seems to be saving himself a little for big games. When he came back, all the games were huge. I'd say the health concern forced him to adapt, though your point that it didn't take him long to get into game shape is certainly valid.

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