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  2. All purpose general trade speculation thread

    I’m curious as to whether the average first round pick is much more valuable now than it was in the late 80s and early 90s. It’s quite plausible that it is when you consider scouting ought to be more thorough now, especially at the international level, there are more American kids playing hockey, and a greater pool of young Russian players are better prepared for the pro game.
  3. All purpose general trade speculation thread

    Only way you could do that is if you had a top prospect that was clearly ready to be a #1...and even then, I'd want at least one or two established players that could help me now. The Caps received five first-round picks as compensation for losing Scott Stevens as a Group 2 FA...they turned out to be: Trevor Halverson, Sergei Gonchar, Brendan Witt, Nolan Baumgartner and Miika Elomo Gonchar obviously had a fine career, and Witt did play a lot of games as a Cap (well over 600), but the other three players did very little...in some cases, just about nothing. Having a bevy of extra firsts isn't as sure of a thing as it can sound.
  4. All purpose general trade speculation thread

    and once we send cory to the isles those draft picks get worse and worse... thats the killer imo
  5. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    You don't get to pick and choose which samples are relevant. They're all part of the same whole. Just as when next season if Gibbons is still here you go through your 'Well, since December 1 of 2017, Gibbons only has 6 goals etc. etc.' rigamarole - he scored 11 goals before that. They all count, no matter where you stop and start.
  6. All purpose general trade speculation thread

    If we were as bad this year as we were last year and were prepared to start selling off pieces, then I would consider that. Sitting in second place (or it could be 8th by the time I hit "Submit Reply" because everything is so close), hopefully about to enter the playoffs for the first time in a long time, that's not a deal to make now.
  7. Today
  8. All purpose general trade speculation thread

    Cory for 4 1sts? probably not
  9. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    He's been on pace for 30 in some seasons where he wasn't able to play 82 games. I feel like as long as he doesn't miss more than 2-3 games, he can hit 30 this season.
  10. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    True, and I didn't really notice that either. Glad he's been pretty healthy for us thus far. It's good that he's on a line with a really young guy like Nico, who is only going to continue to get better, which will have a direct effect on Hall.
  11. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    like I said!
  12. NFL 2017 Playoffs and news

    The fact that NE has eaten his team for lunch as many times as they have really doesn't speak well for Tomlin. Pats have smoked them a lot, especially Brady in particular. And yeah, there's just things that happen on his watch that shouldn't happen for a guy who's been there as long as he had...the Steelers look unprepared more often that they should, and discipline is a problem.
  13. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    No, I saw the 12% (which is why I said "partly basing"), just not sure how much relevance his AHL numbers have to this debate. Should I really care all that much that Gibby was a 12.3% shooter in the AHL, especially with some of those years coming as overage, and with his 2013-14 AHL season (20.7%) inflating his overall shooting% somewhat? In his last three AHL seasons, he shot 7.3% in 26 GP, 8.3% in 63 GP, and 13.3% in 72 GP, so he wasn't consistent in recent years down there, for whatever that's worth. Also FWIW it's not like I think Gibby will shoot 3.4% for the rest of the year, but I don't think his mean will necessarily be 10-11% either.
  14. NFL 2017 Playoffs and news

    Only one ring as a head coach (though he has a 2nd as a Tampa DB's coach so maybe that's what you were referring to) To me he has always ridden the wave of the terrific Steelers organization, which drafts well, has a good internal culture, and always develops and attracts top coordinators. His tough sheriff routine worked well for a while but it's pretty clear he's kind of deficient in terms of x's and o's and preparation as well as discipline has sort of fallen off with him. To allow 40+ pts in a playoff game AT HOME? Roethlisberger bailed him out many a time, and he'll always have the talent around him to win (also helps to have the dysfunctional Browns for two easy wins a year, plus the always self destructing Bengals) Whenever HE's had to raise his performance as a coach, he never seems to do so. If they won last week they'd go into NE and lose.
  15. All purpose general trade speculation thread

    I mean if it were an off-season deal or one of the teams was not in the playoff picture it would make a little more sense, but it seems like the type of deal that teams don’t do in season when they’re directly competing against one another. The other thing is Nelson any good, or do the Isles see themselves having much use for him? Other than Kinkaid, I don’t see anyone the Devils would be willing to trade in that sort of deal that the Isles would want, unless Shero has lost his mind and doesn’t think Severson is any good. Just a very strange report.
  16. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

  17. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    I guess you missed the part where I cited his AHL shooting numbers? So yeah, anyone can shoot 10% in 66 NHL games, but over 447 AHL games, not anyone can shoot 12%. I'm basing my expectation of his performance in part on the fact that Gibbons does not get a lot of shots and so players like that tend to be more selective with their shots and score on a higher percentage of them. Is this necessarily true, of course not, there's Josefsons out there, but they are comparatively rare.
  18. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    Very nice win. Thank god we're finished playing in that hellhole this season. Really like how they put Palmieri on Zacha's line to spread out the offense. Zacha hasn't shown it by the numbers, but he has the skill to keep up with KP. That line torched the Isles all night. Put Noesen with Zajac/Johansson and Coleman with Boyle and Gibbons and I think that's the forward lineup I wanna see.
  19. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    The problem is that you're partly basing Gibby's mean on the 66 games he played in the NHL prior to this year, back in 2013-14 and 2014-15 (which I'm not sure are that relevant given the time frame)...sure, he shot 10% in those games (though in second season of that sample (25 games) he went 0-for-21 in his SOG...does show that he can go through cold streaks), but is that sample so solid and consistent that anyone can definitively say "I can expect Gibby to be a 10-11% shooter from here on out, once an insane hot streak ends?" I don't think that has any more merit than expecting him to go through an ice-cold steak.
  20. Devils Game Worn jerseys for Sale

    Added more items and dropped the price on one.
  21. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    Sports isn't the MGM Grand. These are human beings. Cold or unlucky streaks for most athletes do occur and many occur after hot streaks. Psychology and confidence play a big part in it, a hot streak...then a few posts, then a few big saves, then a few whiffs and all of a sudden it becomes a mental challenge for the player as they grip their stick tighter and get frustrated. We've seen this a million times. You just can't compare movements of intimate objects in a casino to human athletes.
  22. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    No, I don't know that. You're doubling down on the gambler's fallacy. All regression towards the mean means is that after a given streak of extreme X, we should expect the next streak of Y to be closer to true talent than the previous run. So if we flip a fair coin ten times and it comes up heads 8 times, we should expect the next 10 flips to be closer to the average of 5. It doesn't mean that we should expect 8 tails. That may happen, but it's no more likely to happen than at any other time. Granted, players aren't coins, and confidence is probably real, but it's going to be a much smaller factor than plain old luck. Gibbons has historically been a reasonably high percentage shooter in his career - he shoots 12% in the AHL and he had a 10% shooting percentage in the NHL coming into this season. So I guess I'd expect him to shoot 10% or thereabouts, but maybe a little higher because of his short-handed work. Call it 11%. That's what I'd expect, an average of a goal every 9 shots.
  23. New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    And someone needs to tell Josh Harrison and his very ordinary .730 OPS and 95+ OPS over the last three seasons to STFU (he wants out of Pitt). He can play multiple positions and he's good at not striking out as much as most of the league does, but he's not exactly anything special (low OB%s, mostly limited power). Could be a useful utility guy on a good team though...if I had any confidence in him being able to repeat his 2017 season (.272/.339/.432), I'd be interested. Not so sure I'd want the 2016 version though.
  24. What are the same analytics for Johansson being in or out of the lineup, and Palmieri? Just out of curiosity...
  25. NFL 2017 Playoffs and news

    Agree, Tomlin is an idiot who's been buoyed by having an upper-echelon QB and some nice offensive talent. It's amazing that he has two rings. Just about anywhere else I think he'd be a disaster...the Steelers' problems go beyond their offense. Tomlin's team was caught flat-out looking past their opponent towards the next game. Sorry, a veteran HC whose supposedly been there before doesn't allow that to happen. I agree with another one of your posts...it feels like he's run his course in Pittsburgh, and a big chunk of the reason falls on Tomlin himself. Feels like he's not really in touch nor in control of his lockerroom.
  26. GDT: Devils @ Islanders 7:00 PM

    C'mon...you know that these things have a way of evening out, especially for a guy like Gibby who had no history of being able to score like he was earlier on...and like I've pointed out, he had an abnormally high shooting% and a low volume of shots. Pinpointing exactly when he would "cool off" (whatever you want to call it) wouldn't be easy (if anything I think he kept it up much longer than anyone could've expected), but it was damned near bound to happen. Don't act like you don't know anything about regression. So what should have we expected from Gibby after his "hot streak"? Especially since he had zero track record of finding the net at that rate previously and outside of occasional 3+ shot games, isn't a guy who gets a lot of shots. I don't see how you'd expect anything more than a cold streak from Gibby after a run like that...especially since he's not the kind of player who keeps shooting so much that he'll eventually shoot his way out of it.
  27. 2017-2018 Prospects Thread

    Nice article on Davies (and a few others AHL'ers) by Julie Robenhymer: https://www.nhl.com/devils/news/prospect-pipeline-spengler-cup-surreal-for-davies/c-295018750
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