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GDT: New Jersey @ Edmonton - 1/11/12


NJCroMag

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the fact that Calgary scored 6 shots on just 14 SOG proves that the problem is not the defense, that should not be a question.

but as for last nights game, which was a good one, it would've been nice to see a regulation win. a win is a win, but we gotta score more goals.

Kovy is lookin really good and I still trust in him. The guy is the quarterback/point guard to our team. he literally controls the tempo. good sh!t :cheers:

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What? This is total blather. No one has control over goals against distribution - this is why goal differential tends to be more predictive than a team's record halfway through a season. Teams don't have control over winning or losing one goal games.

If you go back over the entire season, which apparently despite your monumental statistics knowledge, you didn't bother to do, you'll see that the Devils' goaltending has been poor throughout the season, not just in blowout losses. And you can't just walk away from blowout losses and blame them entirely on the defense, either.

The Devils have been fortunate in this recent stretch to only have their poor goaltending affect them significantly in one game, but there's no reason why we would expect that to be some sort of trend, or something to count on. The Devils' goaltending is bad, there's no reason for us to expect it to get better, and it's something the team is going to have to deal with.

The defense and goaltending are both to blame, but I think it's easy to tell during certain games that the goaltending is worse than the defense. I'll admit that I didn't think that was the problem in the beginning of the year but as of right now the D seems to be play a litte better I suppose.

It's weird because even though they gave up 41 shots in the Pens game I just recall them being there a lot when Marty would give up a juicy rebound.

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the fact that Calgary scored 6 shots on just 14 SOG proves that the problem is not the defense, that should not be a question.

but as for last nights game, which was a good one, it would've been nice to see a regulation win. a win is a win, but we gotta score more goals.

Kovy is lookin really good and I still trust in him. The guy is the quarterback/point guard to our team. he literally controls the tempo. good sh!t :cheers:

No, there have been plenty of nights where the D was the problem too. You can't always go by x number of shots allowed either, I've seen the Devils have several respectable 'shots allowed' games, but in between allowing 25 shots, a lot of them come off of defensive zone turnovers, breakaways, etc.

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Ah right, so you were just trolling again. Carry on, then.

Not at all.

Look man, aside from the fact that I didn't mention you specifically (you've put my "trolling" on yourself here), I do respect your opinions both here and elsewhere. It's just the statistical analysis...

Like I said elsewhere I use stats every day, all day. When things like this are said:

I was under the impression that Fenwick has a .62 correlation rate with scoring over infinite sample size.

I mean... geez.

All I can say is please, please pick up a basic statistics book. You won't even need to put that much effort into it really, since yourself and others seem to have the fundamentals down. I'm not trying to put you guys down, honest to god. It's just... when you're all citing stats with things like 62% correlation rates (created with methods that suffer from some serious dependance issues as well)...

Anyway, I'm here to relax and talk about the Devils. I've got actual work to do, otherwise. I applaud efforts to statistically analyze hockey (and sports in general), but it's gotta be done correctly. If me calling people out about the use of bad statistics is really trolling then I don't know what to say. I guess that I could just hide behind my screen and snicker at it, but that doesn't seem fair.

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Exactly. Thanks for pulling the individual game numbers together like that. The distribution is off, which presents skewed results.

The Devils seasons stats at this point present a pretty classic statistical "lie" right now. Unfortunately we've got a few fellow fans in our midst who apparently have just enough understanding of statistics to be dangerous, and not enough to recognize the impact that the distribution spread can and does have.

LOL, distribution problems?? go post marty's 2011/12 game log here

you think these bad outings are anomalies? really

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Not surprisingly, our offense production found in Elias, Kovy, Parise and Henrique etc is driving force when looking back to last season:

January 12, 2011 - 42 GP, 11-29-2, 24 PTS, 79 GF, 132 GA

January 12, 2012 - 43 GP, 24-17-2, 50 PTS, 119 GF, 124 GA

With one additional game played, we have 13 additional wins, 12 less losses, 26 more points, 40 more goals scored with 8 less goals against.

Edited by aylbert
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I don't care how much Kovalchuk hates intermission interviews, he damn well better keep doin em

Because I like seein em

All this talk about Kovy's interview in beween periods last night! I had the game on, but didn't pay much attention to it. Now I wish I had.

:doh1:

Does anyone know if that interview is online anywhere?

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Not surprisingly, our offense production found in Elias, Kovy, Parise and Henrique etc is driving force when looking back to last season:

January 12, 2011 - 42 GP, 11-29-2, 24 PTS, 79 GF, 132 GA

January 12, 2012 - 43 GP, 24-17-2, 50 PTS, 119 GF, 124 GA

With one additional game played, we have 13 additional wins, 12 less losses, 26 more points, 40 more goals scored with 8 less goals against.

Didn't patty get off to a slow start last year?

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Not at all.

Look man, aside from the fact that I didn't mention you specifically (you've put my "trolling" on yourself here), I do respect your opinions both here and elsewhere. It's just the statistical analysis...

Like I said elsewhere I use stats every day, all day. When things like this are said:

I mean... geez.

All I can say is please, please pick up a basic statistics book. You won't even need to put that much effort into it really, since yourself and others seem to have the fundamentals down. I'm not trying to put you guys down, honest to god. It's just... when you're all citing stats with things like 62% correlation rates (created with methods that suffer from some serious dependance issues as well)...

Anyway, I'm here to relax and talk about the Devils. I've got actual work to do, otherwise. I applaud efforts to statistically analyze hockey (and sports in general), but it's gotta be done correctly. If me calling people out about the use of bad statistics is really trolling then I don't know what to say. I guess that I could just hide behind my screen and snicker at it, but that doesn't seem fair.

That's a bad use of the word correlation and that's not what he means there. I think what he means there is something akin to this:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/5/12/1466256/whats-the-most-important-thing-a

I can't find the exact article he's citing because I don't remember it and searching for these things is difficult. But somewhere on that site is how much of winning is made up of territorial dominance + chance + goaltending.

Statistical analysis or what have you of sports is naturally going to be uncertain because there are loads of uncertainties. It has to be looked at in that context, and the question that has to be asked is: what's going to be predictive? If it's predictive, how predictive is it? And the truth is, there's not very much that's predictive in hockey. A little, but not a lot. The games still have to be played. Regardless, there are plenty of errors that people make when looking at 'their' statistics versus the newer stats.

I accused you of trolling because I responded to you and you clammed up, as if you had made your case and there was nothing to be said about it. I don't blame you for not defending it - not only is it indefensible, it would take hours just to try to demonstrate what you claimed - but if you're going to say that while taking what I am going to have to perceive as potshots at me, then not say anything when I respond, that sounds a lot like trolling.

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Didn't patty get off to a slow start last year?

Not really... I think he was the only consisent player last year. He won team MVP as well.

January 12, 2011: 41 GP, 9G, 21A, 30PTS, -11

2010-11 Season: 81 GP, 21 G, 41A, 62PTS, -4

January 12, 2012: 42 GP, 15G, 25A, 40PTS, -4

Edited by aylbert
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LOL, distribution problems?? go post marty's 2011/12 game log here

you think these bad outings are anomalies? really

I'm perfectly willing to change my mind on this. However, show me something that is actually convincing.

Marty isn't the same as he used to be obviously, but...

meh, whatever. I got real work to do.

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Nice post and it's nice to see someone who is generally anti-Chuk to at least acknowledge it when Kovy is playing well...very well.

I acknowledged his strong second half last season too as it happened, multiple times.

I've never been "anti-Chuk"...I've just never been a Kovalchuk fanboy. I didn't want him back based off what I saw when he first got here, but I'll always root for him to succeed as long as he wears the red & black. What Devil fan would want him to suck or struggle?

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Statistical analysis or what have you of sports is naturally going to be uncertain because there are loads of uncertainties. It has to be looked at in that context, and the question that has to be asked is: what's going to be predictive? If it's predictive, how predictive is it? And the truth is, there's not very much that's predictive in hockey. A little, but not a lot. The games still have to be played. Regardless, there are plenty of errors that people make when looking at 'their' statistics versus the newer stats.

Exactly my point. Come up with some hockey stats that predict anything at all and I'll definitely listen. Currently, the vast majority of stats talked about in hockey are more deceptive than they are helpful. No stats at all are better than bad statistics. Just about every stats book in the world that's been written since the 80's devotes entire chapters to that point.

Hockey is different from even basketball, in terms of statistical analysis. There's so little that is discreet that it'll take some extraordinary evidence to support just about any statistical claim. The failure of most amateur hockey statisticians to even try to come up with even average evidence for their claims make hockey statistics a running joke.

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I acknowledged his strong second half last season too as it happened, multiple times.

I've never been "anti-Chuk"...I've just never been a Kovalchuk fanboy. I didn't want him back based off what I saw when he first got here, but I'll always root for him to succeed as long as he wears the red & black. What Devil fan would want him to suck or struggle?

Thats exactly how I feel. I really want him to do well, for the teams sake.

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Wow, this is really confusing. In one post you want to be seen as a serious and deeply analyzing poster. Then when challenged, as will happen, you do something like this...

AND, in his post he uses an eight game sampling to try and prove a point, then when it's refuted, he claims hockey stats are laughable

yes very confusing

if anything, its marty's few outstanding games which are skewing the norm!

Edited by EdgeControl
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Exactly my point. Come up with some hockey stats that predict anything at all and I'll definitely listen. Currently, the vast majority of stats talked about in hockey are more deceptive than they are helpful. No stats at all are better than bad statistics. Just about every stats book in the world that's been written since the 80's devotes entire chapters to that point.

Hockey is different from even basketball, in terms of statistical analysis. There's so little that is discreet that it'll take some extraordinary evidence to support just about any statistical claim. The failure of most amateur hockey statisticians to even try to come up with even average evidence for their claims make hockey statistics a running joke.

Yes, they're a running joke because you say they are. I assume you mean 'discrete'.

Anyway, there are stats that predict 'something'. It's just that the games have to be played. In basketball, there's what, 80 scoring plays a night? In hockey there's 5. The NBA season is much 'longer' than the NHL season despite being an equal amount of games and less actual time because of the nature of NBA scoring. In the NBA, a team's record says a lot about how good they are, but in the NHL, it says a lot less. Hence the problem is compounded - since we can't say all that much about games in the past, it's difficult to say things about games in the future. But there's still some knowledge that can be gleaned from there.

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