Derlique Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Apparently the Oilers are considering moving #16 OA for Cam Talbot, which is friggin stupid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 This would be typical Rag luck right here. Chiarelli should be hung with chicken wire if he moves 16 straight up for Talbot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 just an FYI we have an off-season thread already going strong! check it out some good stuff in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 Yeah I know, but I think that is mostly regarding the Devils. This is meant for league wide purposes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zubie#8 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 (edited) Should be an exciting offseason, is it wrong that i just want the cup to be over with? Haha Edited June 14, 2015 by Zubie#8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Eco Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Apparently the Oilers are considering moving #16 OA for Cam Talbot, which is friggin stupid In the same vein as the McDonaugh-for-Gomez trade, the Rangers find themselves in a foolishly self-inflicted hole and it's like clockwork that the suitors just line up immediately to bail them out with a stupid move. I really hope this is only a rumor and nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 In the same vein as the McDonaugh-for-Gomez trade, the Rangers find themselves in a foolishly self-inflicted hole and it's like clockwork that the suitors just line up immediately to bail them out with a stupid move. I really hope this is only a rumor and nothing else.I will fly to Edmonton just to break Chiarelli's face if he does this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MantaRay Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 If only the Oilers could get someone like Dubynk.....oh wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zubie#8 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Thats GROSS overpayment if happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Thats GROSS overpayment if happensTrading a first round pick in a draft as deep as this one for a backup goaltender is a fireable offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zubie#8 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 (edited) Trading a first round pick in a draft as deep as this one for a backup goaltender is a fireable offense.So if that trade makes sense we should be knocking on Edmontons door for the #1 overall pick for Schneider [emoji6] Edited June 15, 2015 by Zubie#8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 So if that trade nakes sense we should be knocking on Edmontons door for the #1 overall pick for Schneider [emoji6]Sure, seems reasonable. [emoji14] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devilsfan118 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Is the general consensus that Talbot has huge upside?Because, like MD said, trading 16 OA for a backup goalie is just stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Is the general consensus that Talbot has huge upside? Because, like MD said, trading 16 OA for a backup goalie is just stupid. He's an undrafted 27 year old goalie that played very well for a 30 game period on a team that put up good possession numbers. "Upside" is in the eye of the beholder I guess, but it sure doesn't sound like that to me. Upside to me is John Gibson. It's just another sad thing about the Oilers winning the draft lottery once again that they could trade number 16 for Tanner Glass and we very well might not really be able to tell the difference when it's all said and done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMazz Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 (edited) Couldn't they sign Niemi for the next couple of seasons or so, draft Blackwood and go that route? Instead of trading assets? Edited June 16, 2015 by TheMazz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is the general consensus that Talbot has huge upside? Because, like MD said, trading 16 OA for a backup goalie is just stupid. He's a .931 goalie through 1600 shots, which is very, very good. Can he keep that up/stay in a similar range and be a legit starter? Too early to tell. But you're flipping a mid-range first rounder for a pretty big maybe. Then again, 16th overall is also a big maybe, but that doesn't excuse poor asset management. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 He's a .931 goalie through 1600 shots, which is very, very good. Can he keep that up/stay in a similar range and be a legit starter? Too early to tell. But you're flipping a mid-range first rounder for a pretty big maybe. Then again, 16th overall is also a big maybe, but that doesn't excuse poor asset management. True, but looking at his AHL stats and they're good, but not great. I'd be a bit wary of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevsMan84 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 True, but looking at his AHL stats and they're good, but not great. I'd be a bit wary of that. Isn't a lot of that due to the fact that AHL defense is just that; AHL-level defense? Don't they face a ton more shots per game? From what I can remember, didn't Brodeur have a very unremarkable AHL career? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Isn't a lot of that due to the fact that AHL defense is just that; AHL-level defense? Don't they face a ton more shots per game? From what I can remember, didn't Brodeur have a very unremarkable AHL career? It's been said that save percentage is fairly constant throughout all levels of play, or at least relative to other goalies at the same level. Broduer's AHL career took place before the dead puck era. Patrick Roy during the same time had save percentages that were well below what the league average has been in recent in years, which in some years, dipped below .900. The save percentage explains everything theory also tells you that Broduer is history's greatest monster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Eco Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Isn't a lot of that due to the fact that AHL defense is just that; AHL-level defense? Edmonton has an AHL-level defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Eco Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 He's an undrafted 27 year old goalie that played very well for a 30 game period on a team that put up good possession numbers. On a team that put up good possession numbers and on a team that arguably had one of the best defenses in the league. His stats were good and he passed the eye test, he played very very very well, but it was 30 games and you don't throw away mid-round first round picks on a year as deep as this year's. They have the money and cap to a) approach or trade for other goaltenders who are more proven, or b) wait one year to sign him UFA; if he is in fact an amazing goaltender, I can't imagine the Rangers being able to afford him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Save percentage skews numbers for goalies who are vacuums and allow no rebound chances. Brodeur was the best of all time in that regard. Between the stout shot suppression, supreme defense, a puck handling goalie who also eats everything or puts it in the corner, you could not draw up a better structure of the 95-03 Devils. Meanwhile, you shoot low pad today and you're going to get 2-3 more whacks at it pumping up save percentage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Save percentage skews numbers for goalies who are vacuums and allow no rebound chances. Brodeur was the best of all time in that regard. Between the stout shot suppression, supreme defense, a puck handling goalie who also eats everything or puts it in the corner, you could not draw up a better structure of the 95-03 Devils. Meanwhile, you shoot low pad today and you're going to get 2-3 more whacks at it pumping up save percentage. Rebounds are scored on way more often than first shots, so no, it doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Rebounds are scored on way more often than first shots, so no, it doesn't. Watch a highlight tape of Lundqvist's great saves. Most wouldn't exist if he eats the first shot. Now he does a good job of getting the rebounds most of the time, but save % penalizes a goalie with excellent rebound control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Save percentage skews numbers for goalies who are vacuums and allow no rebound chances. Brodeur was the best of all time in that regard. Between the stout shot suppression, supreme defense, a puck handling goalie who also eats everything or puts it in the corner, you could not draw up a better structure of the 95-03 Devils. Meanwhile, you shoot low pad today and you're going to get 2-3 more whacks at it pumping up save percentage. Even assuming you're correct about what rebound control does to save percentage, I don't know of anything that demonstrates that Marty was good or bad with rebound control, which I imagine is something that's really prone to confirmation bias. I recall reading something that theorized that it's a phenomenon that can't be measured that well anyway. With Marty and Devils goalies in general, the official save percentage might be lower than the reality because the Devils home score keeper has been known to significantly undercount shots. It's actually something that Sonny Mehta analyzed with a small sample size. There's also a good case to be made that Marty's puck handling pretty significantly cut down on the number of shots he faced even after the trapezoid. I posted a link a while ago that analyzed the 2012 series against the Flyers where it compared what a superior puck handling goalie (Marty) can do in that regard against a really bad one (Bryz). You might hypothesize that would tend to reduce save percentage as it might tend to result in a higher percentage of quality scoring chances relative to overall shots, because of less dump and chase, but I don't know if you could figure that out even if it were true. But in any event, I'm skeptical of the idea that you can always plug in a save percentage no matter what team a goalie is playing for once you have a large enough sample size. I mean, for some you can. But it's not for nothing that the first time that Lundqvist misses significant time that the goalie (an undrafted 28 year old) puts up a save percentage that's better than Cory Schneider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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