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Lockout 2012-2013 (Hockey's back!)


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Poll: Lockout 2012-2013 (Hockey's back!) (130 member(s) have cast votes)

When will we see hockey?

  1. Oct 12 (10 votes [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  2. Nov 12 (19 votes [14.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.62%

  3. Dec 12 (26 votes [20.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.00%

  4. Jan 13 (33 votes [25.38%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.38%

  5. Feb 13 (1 votes [0.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.77%

  6. Mar 13 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Apr 13 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. Oct 13 (14 votes [10.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.77%

  9. Never (27 votes [20.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.77%

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#721 NJDevs4978

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 01:15 PM

lol at the NFL lockout being 'longer' when the sum total of games missed was one lousy preseason game. And the NBA eventually started negotiating, and they don't have lead negotiators that shut down two sports. When does the negotiating - if ever - happen here? End of January?
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#722 Triumph

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 01:57 PM

lol at the NFL lockout being 'longer' when the sum total of games missed was one lousy preseason game. And the NBA eventually started negotiating, and they don't have lead negotiators that shut down two sports. When does the negotiating - if ever - happen here? End of January?


The NBA lockout ended right around now, and I expect the NHL lockout to end right around now. The NFL lockout lasted a long time, and part of the issue that both sides, but especially the players, realized that once they started missing any games it would become harder and harder to reach an agreement. The NHL, of course, intended to miss games unless they got 100% of what they wanted, which is why we're in this spot. If they could've gotten to 50/50 and Make Whole by September 10th, we might've had a season, but the NHL had no interest in that.
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#723 SMantzas

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 01:59 PM

The NBA lockout ended right around now, and I expect the NHL lockout to end right around now. The NFL lockout lasted a long time, and part of the issue that both sides, but especially the players, realized that once they started missing any games it would become harder and harder to reach an agreement. The NHL, of course, intended to miss games unless they got 100% of what they wanted, which is why we're in this spot. If they could've gotten to 50/50 and Make Whole by September 10th, we might've had a season, but the NHL had no interest in that.

There's no way you're still optimistic
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#724 Triumph

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:09 PM

There's no way you're still optimistic


That's how these things work. They are supposed to look like they will lose a season. Both sides are trying to give out as many negative quotes as possible. And one day they wake up and start trading things and make a deal. This is how it went with the NBA last year. This entire thread will be surprised regardless of when the agreement comes.
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#725 SMantzas

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:10 PM

That's how these things work. They are supposed to look like they will lose a season. Both sides are trying to give out as many negative quotes as possible. And one day they wake up and start trading things and make a deal. This is how it went with the NBA last year. This entire thread will be surprised regardless of when the agreement comes.

Do you think it gets done in this round of negotiations?
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#726 Triumph

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:19 PM

Do you think it gets done in this round of negotiations?


I certainly think it can. It depends on what the NHL is willing to give up. The point is surprises - surprises from the NHL side are good, because right now everyone (on the outside) thinks they will not give up anything.
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#727 njd3b1ink

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:25 PM

The NHL wants huge givebacks on salary, and in addition to said givebacks, wants player concessions on contracts, free agency age, and pretty much anything else. It is offering virtually nothing in return.


I'm pretty sure that they actually changed some of the contract issues in favor of the players. One being that entry level contracts are only two years long.
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#728 Daniel

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:36 PM

The NBA lockout ended right around now, and I expect the NHL lockout to end right around now. The NFL lockout lasted a long time, and part of the issue that both sides, but especially the players, realized that once they started missing any games it would become harder and harder to reach an agreement. The NHL, of course, intended to miss games unless they got 100% of what they wanted, which is why we're in this spot. If they could've gotten to 50/50 and Make Whole by September 10th, we might've had a season, but the NHL had no interest in that.


The involvement of the courts also aided in the NFL not losing any games. Although the NFL position won at last point, the league (and all sports leagues) were worried about a court, perhaps even the Supreme Court, allowing the players union to decertify and then subjecting the league to the antitrust laws.

The NHLPA can't really threaten to decertify, since about half the teams would fold-up if there were no salary cap or draft. It would be 2005 all over again.
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#729 Triumph

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:43 PM

I'm pretty sure that they actually changed some of the contract issues in favor of the players. One being that entry level contracts are only two years long.


You think that's a concession to the players? Because it isn't. Let's assume that it is, because the way you're thinking is that it means that players get off their ELC earlier. But all ELC's presently in the league are already signed, so this means it would only apply to new signees. So if you're right, those players would then get more money quicker, at the expense of the union members negotiating right now. If Sidney Crosby makes 8.7 million in his third year instead of 900k plus bonuses, that's at least 6 million dollars being taken away from union members who suffered through the lockout of 2004-05.

But on a more macro level, it means players who don't make it to the NHL earn slightly less. Which I imagine the NHL union doesn't care about, it's hard for me to imagine they care about anyone who makes less than the NHL average.

The involvement of the courts also aided in the NFL not losing any games. Although the NFL position won at last point, the league (and all sports leagues) were worried about a court, perhaps even the Supreme Court, allowing the players union to decertify and then subjecting the league to the antitrust laws.

The NHLPA can't really threaten to decertify, since about half the teams would fold-up if there were no salary cap or draft. It would be 2005 all over again.


New teams would spring up. There's plenty of money in professional hockey. Nor do I think that you're correct - no draft means yeah, players sign for lots of money in big markets. But not everyone does that.
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#730 Daniel

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:55 PM

New teams would spring up. There's plenty of money in professional hockey. Nor do I think that you're correct - no draft means yeah, players sign for lots of money in big markets. But not everyone does that.


The money in the NHL is highly concentrated, especially when you don't have enormous tv deals that the NFL has. (Every team in the NFL would at least break even with sharing of tv revenues alone). If it were a completely free labor market -- no salary caps, no draft, just play out the terms of a deal -- hockey could work in maybe, maybe ten markets, half of which would be in Canada. The Devils would be out of business in about five years unless there's a white knight that is willing to lose a ton of money because he likes hockey.

No draft would be the death knell. You can bet your bottom dollar that all of the top five/ten prospects in any given year would be the property of one of five teams. European soccer has a talent pool that is several times larger than all of the people that play all of the four major US sports combined. I don't follow the sport too much, but it seems like there are maybe fifteen soccer teams in all of Europe that manage to legitimately compete for anything of consequence.
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#731 njd3b1ink

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:57 PM

You think that's a concession to the players? Because it isn't. Let's assume that it is, because the way you're thinking is that it means that players get off their ELC earlier. But all ELC's presently in the league are already signed, so this means it would only apply to new signees. So if you're right, those players would then get more money quicker, at the expense of the union members negotiating right now. If Sidney Crosby makes 8.7 million in his third year instead of 900k plus bonuses, that's at least 6 million dollars being taken away from union members who suffered through the lockout of 2004-05.

But on a more macro level, it means players who don't make it to the NHL earn slightly less. Which I imagine the NHL union doesn't care about, it's hard for me to imagine they care about anyone who makes less than the NHL average.

Ive heard numerous players say that this lockout is about protecting the young players and future players of the NHL. Also the NHL has said that they would most likely lessen their stance on contract lengths, which is definitely something the players care about. That there is a concession on the owners part, and in my opinion it is a big concession cause I think there are many problems with how contracts are being negotiated right now.
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#732 Triumph

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 03:22 PM

The money in the NHL is highly concentrated, especially when you don't have enormous tv deals that the NFL has. (Every team in the NFL would at least break even with sharing of tv revenues alone). If it were a completely free labor market -- no salary caps, no draft, just play out the terms of a deal -- hockey could work in maybe, maybe ten markets, half of which would be in Canada. The Devils would be out of business in about five years unless there's a white knight that is willing to lose a ton of money because he likes hockey.

No draft would be the death knell. You can bet your bottom dollar that all of the top five/ten prospects in any given year would be the property of one of five teams. European soccer has a talent pool that is several times larger than all of the people that play all of the four major US sports combined. I don't follow the sport too much, but it seems like there are maybe fifteen soccer teams in all of Europe that manage to legitimately compete for anything of consequence.


And yet there are hundreds of professional soccer teams in Europe - imagine that. They must all be going broke or out of business. I mean, this is sublimely silly talk.

The decertification is a threat. It would likely not be followed through on. But still, if the NHL thought there was even a 1% chance of decertification they'd want to concede some things rather than have players follow through on it.

Ive heard numerous players say that this lockout is about protecting the young players and future players of the NHL. Also the NHL has said that they would most likely lessen their stance on contract lengths, which is definitely something the players care about. That there is a concession on the owners part, and in my opinion it is a big concession cause I think there are many problems with how contracts are being negotiated right now.


I hate this contract talk because an owner and a player are agreeing to these contracts. So both parties think this is fair. So sure, end the front-loaded contracts, but term limits on contracts are silly. It's for the owners to protect themselves against themselves because they don't know how to run a business.

I'm sure the NHLPA will cave on contract lengths since for 80+% of the union who cares, they won't get a contract that long anyway. But the lockout is not about protecting young players and future players of the NHL.

Edited by Triumph, 20 November 2012 - 03:26 PM.

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#733 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 03:37 PM

I'd like to see the NHLPA agree to a percentage based soft fall in their next offer. It doesn't even necessarily have to be to 50/50. I think that would really get negotiations going and seems reasonable to me, trying to guarantee a rising cap that gets to 50/50 under 5% growth scenarios is just not going to play. The NHL fought very hard for linkage last lockout and any offer that doesn't have that is just so clearly a non-starter I think.

If the NHLPA does that tomorrow I'll be very hopeful for a resolution very soon.

Edited by halfsharkalligatorhalfman, 20 November 2012 - 03:40 PM.

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#734 Daniel

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 03:42 PM

And yet there are hundreds of professional soccer teams in Europe - imagine that. They must all be going broke or out of business. I mean, this is sublimely silly talk.

The decertification is a threat. It would likely not be followed through on. But still, if the NHL thought there was even a 1% chance of decertification they'd want to concede some things rather than have players follow through on it.


Hundreds of soccer teams, but how many of them are any good, what do they pay their players, and how many people show up to watch their games. Yeah, I guess you're right that with no player contract restrictions, the Devils and Tampa could play each other ten times per year to crowds of less than 2000 people to watch bordeline AHLers that get paid $100k per year. I would certainly throw down money to watch a team led by Darcy Zajac and Keith Kincaid go toe to toe against another team led by the Sestito brothers (not quite as good as the Sedins, but beggars can't be choosers). Those scrappy teams could definitely compete against a Ranger team made up of Crosby, Shea Weber, Stamkos, Toews, and Zdeno Chara. Maybe the Rags would give their third string goalie -- let's say Pekka Rhine -- the start just to make things interesting.
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#735 Triumph

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 03:54 PM

Hundreds of soccer teams, but how many of them are any good, what do they pay their players, and how many people show up to watch their games. Yeah, I guess you're right that with no player contract restrictions, the Devils and Tampa could play each other ten times per year to crowds of less than 2000 people to watch bordeline AHLers that get paid $100k per year. I would certainly throw down money to watch a team led by Darcy Zajac and Keith Kincaid go toe to toe against another team led by the Sestito brothers (not quite as good as the Sedins, but beggars can't be choosers). Those scrappy teams could definitely compete against a Ranger team made up of Crosby, Shea Weber, Stamkos, Toews, and Zdeno Chara. Maybe the Rags would give their third string goalie -- let's say Pekka Rhine -- the start just to make things interesting.


You haven't thought much how the economics of a decertified NHL would work. First of all, obviously Devils vs. Rangers would sell out. The Devils could probably charge a fortune for those tickets. Second, there's a limited number of spots available on an NHL team, so would players sign for more to literally not play? Remember, in a decertified NHL the relationship between the AHL and NHL, roster limits, etc. change dramatically. Some would, others probably wouldn't.
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#736 Daniel

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 04:25 PM

You haven't thought much how the economics of a decertified NHL would work. First of all, obviously Devils vs. Rangers would sell out. The Devils could probably charge a fortune for those tickets. Second, there's a limited number of spots available on an NHL team, so would players sign for more to literally not play? Remember, in a decertified NHL the relationship between the AHL and NHL, roster limits, etc. change dramatically. Some would, others probably wouldn't.


The Devils could charge as much for games against the Rangers as they do now, and that assumes that the Rangers would even feel it's worth their while to play a team that's nothing more than a sparring partner.

There are only a limited number of spots on a soccer roster, yet in the past twenty years in the English premier competition, four teams have won the championship, and one team, Man U, has won more than half of them. Something like a total of ten teams during that time have finished in the top three teams. So basically, despite an enormous talent pool, there are ten teams in the premier league that have sniffed a title over the past twenty years. It's even more concentrated in the Spanish premier league.

My guess would be that most of the good players that aren't good enough for those ten to twelve North American teams that could pay players a lot of money (NYR, Flyers, Bruins, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Maple Leafs, Second Toronto team, Canadiens, Nordiques, Vancouver, and let's say two more Canadian teams owned by rich guys would be willing to lose money on) would end up playing in Russia, and a few other Euro teams that would pay them more money than the Panthers, Devils and Hurricanes could.
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#737 NJDevs4978

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 11:04 PM

If they could've gotten to 50/50 and Make Whole by September 10th, we might've had a season, but the NHL had no interest in that.


Tri, that has nothing to do with it. The NHLPA is STILL NOT at a 'real' 50-50, because they're not offering linkage. This is not a small thing. And neither side made any effort to negotiate before September 10, the NHLPA kept offering up excuses about Fehr getting up to speed when the NHL wanted meetings. Which I guess makes sense considering he's always late to meetings so clearly he's been in no hurry at any point and yet you only blame the owners for dragging their feet.

You complain about the owners' heavy-handedness when the owners offer something ridiculously slanted in their favor but you don't seem to have an issue with the players doing the same thing, or not offering anything at all. Both sides are full of **it, period.

Edited by NJDevs4978, 20 November 2012 - 11:21 PM.

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#738 Triumph

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 01:49 AM

Tri, that has nothing to do with it. The NHLPA is STILL NOT at a 'real' 50-50, because they're not offering linkage. This is not a small thing. And neither side made any effort to negotiate before September 10, the NHLPA kept offering up excuses about Fehr getting up to speed when the NHL wanted meetings. Which I guess makes sense considering he's always late to meetings so clearly he's been in no hurry at any point and yet you only blame the owners for dragging their feet.

You complain about the owners' heavy-handedness when the owners offer something ridiculously slanted in their favor but you don't seem to have an issue with the players doing the same thing, or not offering anything at all. Both sides are full of **it, period.


The players have offered nothing heavily slanted in their favor. Have the players even offered 57% across the board? A continuation of the old CBA + more revenue for increased NHL revenue? Nope. Nothing like it. The NHL is at record revenues and wants to cut salary, it's going to have to give stuff to the NHLPA to make that happen. One thing they could offer is de-linked Make Whole combined with a linked salary cap with an agreed upon cap for the next 2 seasons. You just assume that the NHL has to get everything it wants or there won't be a season. In that case, there probably won't be a season. I don't assume the NHL is that intractable.
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#739 MantaRay

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 04:24 AM

Sadly, Triumph is 100% correct.
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#740 NJDevs4978

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 10:24 AM

You guys will find out soon enough, Fehr isn't interested in negotiation, he wants war. Whether that's limited to delinkage or he secretly wants to go after the cap entirely is still up in the air. I love how a letter to the Canadian Parliament whining about the owners gets made public right before the summit meeting, which Fehr is predictably late for.
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"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

The New Jersey Devils win Stanley Cups everywhere:
-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03




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