It is a retool not a rebuild

[MantaRay]

I think Anton has to be our buyout. If not him, who? I guess if they bought out Sal, it'd be ok, but that looks much worse than buying out Anton who isn't the captain. Tallinder is better than he's looked, but having played sporadically hasn't helped. I do think 3 of Sal, Volch, Tally and Zid are gone by trade deadline next year or sooner. I don't think we will go an entire season without playing a younger guy on D again.

 

Isn't Zid a UFA this year?

[ghdi]

I'm fully prepared for and willing to let Clarkson walk. 

[Zubie#8]

Isn't Zid a UFA this year?

Yessir, but I would be willing him to give him a one year deal, he brings a dimension that none of our guys can bring on defense.

[ATLL765]

Isn't Zid a UFA this year?

My thoughts were more than 3 of them won't be brought back/traded/not here due to some reason. I just don't see how we keep 8 D through the entire year again. We have to drop at least 2 to make it even reasonable.

We have these guys:

Greene

Larsson

Fayne

Tallinder

Zidlicky

Salvador

Volchenkov

Harrold

My guess is 3 of the last 5 I listed are gone by end of trade deadline next year. In my mind, there's no way we can't hold a spot for one of the young d prospects next year. We have Urbom, Gelinas and Merrill now who are by most accounts, ready to see some NHL action, if not ready for regular duty. so I just do not see how we don't work at least one of them in at all times, at least until one outshines the rest or they all fail miserably and I go cry in a corner.

[SterioDesign]

My thoughts were more than 3 of them won't be brought back/traded/not here due to some reason. I just don't see how we keep 8 D through the entire year again. We have to drop at least 2 to make it even reasonable.

We have these guys:

Greene

Larsson

Fayne

Tallinder

Zidlicky

Salvador

Volchenkov

Harrold

My guess is 3 of the last 5 I listed are gone by end of trade deadline next year. In my mind, there's no way we can't hold a spot for one of the young d prospects next year. We have Urbom, Gelinas and Merrill now who are by most accounts, ready to see some NHL action, if not ready for regular duty. so I just do not see how we don't work at least one of them in at all times, at least until one outshines the rest or they all fail miserably and I go cry in a corner.

 

this is true but we all know Lou will go for the cheap repair 1- cause he's Lou 2-cause we're on a budget. Then he won't get rid of Salvador even though he clearly should and he'll probably let go a guy like Harrold or Zid who were at least contributing offensively.

 

i was encourage for next year trying to think of all the moves we could make, until someone mentioned that we're dealing with an internal budget... means we won't see big buyouts or signing good players who could help. And possibly not re-signing Clarkson. 

 

plus Lou said 8 D is the perfect number and that "because of the group we had, its not something that was causing problems or for the guys".... yeah Lou ignore the multiple reports about Fayne and Larsson admitting it was hurting his confidence. 

[MantaRay]

Yessir, but I would be willing him to give him a one year deal, he brings a dimension that none of our guys can bring on defense.

 

We NEED to bring him back for that very reason, aside from him and Harrold we don't have that dimension.

 

I think we resusitated his career, but I think if Elias doesn't sign, he is gone too.  I know they are very close.

[ATLL765]

this is true but we all know Lou will go for the cheap repair 1- cause he's Lou 2-cause we're on a budget. Then he won't get rid of Salvador even though he clearly should and he'll probably let go a guy like Harrold or Zid who were at least contributing offensively.

 

i was encourage for next year trying to think of all the moves we could make, until someone mentioned that we're dealing with an internal budget... means we won't see big buyouts or signing good players who could help. And possibly not re-signing Clarkson. 

 

plus Lou said 8 D is the perfect number and that "because of the group we had, its not something that was causing problems or for the guys".... yeah Lou ignore the multiple reports about Fayne and Larsson admitting it was hurting his confidence. 

How is this not a cheap fix? We're gonna use an amnesty buyout. I'd be surprised to see any team not use at least one of their amnesty buyouts. I think the favorite for our amnesty is Volch right now. So assuming he's gone next year, that leaves Zid and Harrold as your UFAs, Harrold comes back as a 7th, he's a perfect 7. Zid I think is 50/50 whether he gets resigned. Tallinder is getting traded, somewhere. Next year he'll have 1 year left and his cap hit isn't terrible, so I think someone will take him if he's playing anything close to alright and send us a pick in return for next draft. That leaves Sal and Zid. I think one of these two won't be here next year either. I think it's unlikely we buyout Sal, so unless we DON'T resign Harrold, I think Zid doesn't come back next year.

Either way, this ends up with us not spending more money than we would have otherwise.

[SterioDesign]

How is this not a cheap fix? We're gonna use an amnesty buyout. I'd be surprised to see any team not use at least one of their amnesty buyouts. I think the favorite for our amnesty is Volch right now. So assuming he's gone next year, that leaves Zid and Harrold as your UFAs, Harrold comes back as a 7th, he's a perfect 7. Zid I think is 50/50 whether he gets resigned. Tallinder is getting traded, somewhere. Next year he'll have 1 year left and his cap hit isn't terrible, so I think someone will take him if he's playing anything close to alright and send us a pick in return for next draft. That leaves Sal and Zid. I think one of these two won't be here next year either. I think it's unlikely we buyout Sal, so unless we DON'T resign Harrold, I think Zid doesn't come back next year.

Either way, this ends up with us not spending more money than we would have otherwise.

 

you know with those buyouts that the players is still getting paid by the owner right? they don't just... vanish his contract, the cap hit doesnt count and thats it.  You think vanderbeek would be please throwing 12.75m out the window watching volchenkov playing somewhere else? and 6.5millions for Salvador? especially since we're on an internal budget

Edited May 1, 2013 by SterioDesign

[Devils731]

you know with those buyouts that the players is still getting paid by the owner right? they don't just... vanish his contract, the cap hit doesnt count and thats it.  You think vanderbeek would be please throwing 12.75m out the window watching volchenkov playing somewhere else? and 6.5millions for Salvador? especially since we're on an internal budget

 

We actually don't know what the Devils internal budget looks like.  I believe the Devils threw a large contract offer Parise's way last offseason and it's likely Vanderbeek is much more free to spend money after the debt restructuring the team went through, the only question is how much more free.

[Triumph]

How is this not a cheap fix? We're gonna use an amnesty buyout. I'd be surprised to see any team not use at least one of their amnesty buyouts. I think the favorite for our amnesty is Volch right now. So assuming he's gone next year, that leaves Zid and Harrold as your UFAs, Harrold comes back as a 7th, he's a perfect 7. Zid I think is 50/50 whether he gets resigned. Tallinder is getting traded, somewhere. Next year he'll have 1 year left and his cap hit isn't terrible, so I think someone will take him if he's playing anything close to alright and send us a pick in return for next draft. That leaves Sal and Zid. I think one of these two won't be here next year either. I think it's unlikely we buyout Sal, so unless we DON'T resign Harrold, I think Zid doesn't come back next year.

Either way, this ends up with us not spending more money than we would have otherwise.

 

There will be a lot of teams that won't use their amnesty buyouts.  They cost money, one.  Two, if you run a prudent franchise, there's no need to buy anyone out.  Three, if you're a floor team, there's no reason to use a compliance buyout as that could ultimately cost you money.  Teams like Dallas, Nashville, and the Islanders aren't using compliance buyouts.

[SterioDesign]

We actually don't know what the Devils internal budget looks like.  I believe the Devils threw a large contract offer Parise's way last offseason and it's likely Vanderbeek is much more free to spend money after the debt restructuring the team went through, the only question is how much more free.

Yeah but its one thing to throw 12m to get a guy on the ice and its something else to throw away 12m to get one off the ice

[Triumph]

Yeah but its one thing to throw 12m to get a guy on the ice and its something else to throw away 12m to get one off the ice

 

Amnesty buyouts are for 2/3rds of a player's contract extended over double the remaining years on the contract.  So NJ would have to pay 8.5M extended over 6 years to get rid of Volchenkov.  I don't think they will do it - it's not like they are close to the salary cap, and it's not like Volchenkov is playing at a level below what we would expect from an NHL defenseman.  

 

I believe, like 731, that the Devils' internal budget is close to this coming year's salary cap.  They've spent that much money before, and they must've had a decent year financially even though they missed the playoffs.

[ATLL765]

you know with those buyouts that the players is still getting paid by the owner right? they don't just... vanish his contract, the cap hit doesnt count and thats it.  You think vanderbeek would be please throwing 12.75m out the window watching volchenkov playing somewhere else? and 6.5millions for Salvador? especially since we're on an internal budget

I was talking strictly in terms of next year, where we'd pay Volch, if he's bought out, $1.4xxM, which is $2.8xxM less than what he would have gotten, so we says $2.8 something million and we replace him with a young guy costing less than $1M, so that brings the total payment for 1 non playing d-man and the guy who is playing in that spot to $2.4xM for the year, which is less than $4.25.

[redruM]

I'm probably in the minority, but I'd be OK if Sal, VOl, Tal & Zid were all gone next year...  fresh young legs on defense!!!

[Lateralous]

I'm probably in the minority, but I'd be OK if Sal, VOl, Tal & Zid were all gone next year...  fresh young legs on defense!!!

Wow, that would be a lot of growing pains with the young guys all at once.  It would also be tough to give guys sheltered minutes that way. I might feel differently if Lou hadn't already pissed away next years 1st, but now every loss is going to grate that much more.     

 

I would like to see Urbom on the 3rd pairing.  From what I've read, Gelinas could use an extra year in Albany to work on his D and I wouldn't mind Merrill getting a year down there as well. 

 

I still think you have to keep Zidlicky around for the offensive element in his game and one of Vol/Sal for some muscle in the back.  

[ghdi]

I'm probably in the minority, but I'd be OK if Sal, VOl, Tal & Zid were all gone next year...  fresh young legs on defense!!!

 

I dont think you're in the minority. I think the majority of people wouldnt mind seeing that, the problem is that its an incredible amount of change at one position in one swoop and it sends the team the wrong message as blame for this season is not down to one group or position. I think we'll be lucky if just one of them is gone come opening night and my bet would be on Tallinder or Zid being the goner, if any.

 

If all 3 end up leaving before the end of 13-14, it will be staggered, one before, one around Dec-Jan, and the last at the deadline. That also gives new guys a chance to get up to speed somewhat instead of throwing them to the wolves in our new conference.

Edited May 2, 2013 by ghdi

[NewarkDevil5]

I posted this in the wrong thread it seems. It's more relevant to the discussion in this one.

 

Let's look at Volchenkov from a business or sports team owner's perspective and correct my facts if I'm wrong:

 

Signed to a contract paying him $4.25 Million/year for 3 more years

Play level has fallen to the point where younger cheaper prospects could provide similar if not better level of play

Amnesty Buyout reduces budget line-item to $1.42 Million/year for 6 years while necessitating promoting a younger player getting paid $870k for a total cost of $2.29 Million/year for the first couple years

 

From looking at those facts I take the Amnesty Buyout almost every time because you're actually saving real dollars (almost $2 million worth) per year for the first 3 years and by the time you're left with the back end of the 3 years you'll have to assume that things won't be as tight otherwise you wouldn't want to be in this business in the first place. This deal gives you real money now in your pocket which is more important than small money being spent down the road.

 

From a hockey perspective Volchenkov's been mostly lousy. The few occasions he's been good have not made up for the majority of his play being lousy. It just doesn't make sense to keep a guy at that pay scale when his level of play is not appreciably better than what you would get for 1/5 the price.

[Triumph]

I posted this in the wrong thread it seems. It's more relevant to the discussion in this one.

 

Let's look at Volchenkov from a business or sports team owner's perspective and correct my facts if I'm wrong:

 

Signed to a contract paying him $4.25 Million/year for 3 more years

Play level has fallen to the point where younger cheaper prospects could provide similar if not better level of play

Amnesty Buyout reduces budget line-item to $1.42 Million/year for 6 years while necessitating promoting a younger player getting paid $870k for a total cost of $2.29 Million/year for the first couple years

 

From looking at those facts I take the Amnesty Buyout almost every time because you're actually saving real dollars (almost $2 million worth) per year for the first 3 years and by the time you're left with the back end of the 3 years you'll have to assume that things won't be as tight otherwise you wouldn't want to be in this business in the first place. This deal gives you real money now in your pocket which is more important than small money being spent down the road.

 

From a hockey perspective Volchenkov's been mostly lousy. The few occasions he's been good have not made up for the majority of his play being lousy. It just doesn't make sense to keep a guy at that pay scale when his level of play is not appreciably better than what you would get for 1/5 the price.

 

Your second assumption is a large one, and is why I don't think he will be bought out.  I don't think the Devils think that, and I don't think they really have reason to think that.  He'll play his 60 games next year and we'll see where things stand after that.  If his play really has fallen off, then he'll definitely be a candidate for a buyout.  Young defensemen don't always pan out, and Volchenkov is basically a lock to get injured at some point, so they can get a look at his ostensible replacement then.

[NewarkDevil5]

Your second assumption is a large one, and is why I don't think he will be bought out.  I don't think the Devils think that, and I don't think they really have reason to think that.  He'll play his 60 games next year and we'll see where things stand after that.  If his play really has fallen off, then he'll definitely be a candidate for a buyout.  Young defensemen don't always pan out, and Volchenkov is basically a lock to get injured at some point, so they can get a look at his ostensible replacement then.

 

The Devils can use 2 Amnesty Buyouts between this summer and next summer. Maybe they give Anton one more year or maybe they don't. In my opinion, if they are really as cash-strapped as everyone's trying to make out, they'd probably do it this summer. As far as his play is concerned, I can't speak to what Lou or Deboer think of his level of play, but I will say that from where I sit in watching him play he came off as our worst defenseman this year and he's the highest paid one to boot.

[Triumph]

The Devils can use 2 Amnesty Buyouts between this summer and next summer. Maybe they give Anton one more year or maybe they don't. In my opinion, if they are really as cash-strapped as everyone's trying to make out, they'd probably do it this summer. As far as his play is concerned, I can't speak to what Lou or Deboer think of his level of play, but I will say that from where I sit in watching him play he came off as our worst defenseman this year and he's the highest paid one to boot.

 

Salvador was in my view and by the numbers far worse.

If the Devils are cash-strapped, they will not use an amnesty buyout.  I don't think they are, though.

[NewarkDevil5]

Salvador was in my view and by the numbers far worse.

If the Devils are cash-strapped, they will not use an amnesty buyout.  I don't think they are, though.

 

Salvador is the captain of the team and management is up his arse for whatever reason. As far as cash strapped, the amnesty buyout helps you with cash right now when you can put in a cheap replacement for an expensive player. I just explained how that is the case. As far as whether young defensemen pan out, Volchenkov averaged 16 minutes a game this year. If we can't find one of either Harrold, Gelinas, Urbom, or Merrill to replace those 16 minutes at least as adequately as Volchenkov played (if not better) then our vaunted defensive prospect depth is the most highly overrated asset in the league.

 

Mind you, Salvador averaged 21 minutes a game. Odds are that if he was out there that much more he was seeing harder competition as you like to put it. He might have looked worse for wear against the top lines in the game. I don't know this for sure because I don't delve into the advanced statistics.

Edited May 2, 2013 by NewarkDevil5

[ATLL765]

Your second assumption is a large one, and is why I don't think he will be bought out.  I don't think the Devils think that, and I don't think they really have reason to think that.  He'll play his 60 games next year and we'll see where things stand after that.  If his play really has fallen off, then he'll definitely be a candidate for a buyout.  Young defensemen don't always pan out, and Volchenkov is basically a lock to get injured at some point, so they can get a look at his ostensible replacement then.

Just like what happened this year when guys got hurt, we got to see, oh wait, that's right, we had 8 d-men and didn't see any new faces until the last few games. So unless we DON'T resign either of Zid or Harrold, which would be a mistake in my eyes, we'll still have 7 defenseman. Imo, I don't see the risk in dumping him and keeping Harrold to play his spot if Urbom/Gelinas/Merrill can't take hold of it. Then if need be, we can pick up a vet as a 7th if none of the kids can handle that responsibility. I don't see how this blows up in our face.

Edited May 2, 2013 by ATLL765

[Triumph]

Salvador is the captain of the team and management is up his arse for whatever reason. As far as cash strapped, the amnesty buyout helps you with cash right now when you can put in a cheap replacement for an expensive player. I just explained how that is the case. As far as whether young defensemen pan out, Volchenkov averaged 16 minutes a game this year. If we can't find one of either Harrold, Gelinas, Urbom, or Merrill to replace those 16 minutes at least as adequately as Volchenkov played (if not better) then our vaunted defensive prospect depth is the most highly overrated asset in the league.

 

Mind you, Salvador averaged 21 minutes a game. Odds are that if he was out there that much more he was seeing harder competition as you like to put it. He might have looked worse for wear against the top lines in the game. I don't know this for sure because I don't delve into the advanced statistics.

 

If the Devils are cash-strapped, they can trade players.  They can pick up parts of contracts of players they deal.  And, most importantly, if they're cash strapped, there is zero reason to use a compliance buyout on Volchenkov when a regular one does just fine.

 

Volchenkov played 16 minutes, and his time at even strength isn't hard to replace.  His time on the PK is hard to replace.

 

Just like what happened this year when guys got hurt, we got to see, oh wait, that's right, we had 8 d-men and didn't see any new faces until the last few games. So unless we DON'T resign either of Zid or Harrold, which would be a mistake in my eyes, we'll still have 7 defenseman. Imo, I don't see the risk in dumping him and keeping Harrold to play his spot if Urbom/Gelinas/Merrill can't take hold of it. Then if need be, we can pick up a vet as a 7th if none of the kids can handle that responsibility. I don't see how this blows up in our face.

 

Go back and look at how many D teams use - that NJ had to use injury replacements eventually is not surprising, especially considering how injury-prone some of these older D are.  The Devils are going to make some moves with their D, but I don't think eating a bunch of money on Volchenkov right away is smarter than dealing Fayne or Tallinder and seeing what you can get for them.  The Devils don't have anyone in their system like Volchenkov, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts 2 more years and NJ uses a regular buyout on him for that 6th year.

Edited May 2, 2013 by Triumph

[NewarkDevil5]

If the Devils are cash-strapped, they can trade players.  They can pick up parts of contracts of players they deal.  And, most importantly, if they're cash strapped, there is zero reason to use a compliance buyout on Volchenkov when a regular one does just fine.

 

Volchenkov played 16 minutes, and his time at even strength isn't hard to replace.  His time on the PK is hard to replace.

 

 

Go back and look at how many D teams use - that NJ had to use injury replacements eventually is not surprising, especially considering how injury-prone some of these older D are.  The Devils are going to make some moves with their D, but I don't think eating a bunch of money on Volchenkov right away is smarter than dealing Fayne or Tallinder and seeing what you can get for them.  The Devils don't have anyone in their system like Volchenkov, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts 2 more years and NJ uses a regular buyout on him for that 6th year.

 

Volchenkov has an NTC so you can't trade him without his permission. He's the highest paid defenseman on the team and probably the worst so no one will be inclined to trade for him even if you could trade him. As for whether they use an Amnesty Buyout or a regular one, that's a valid point and you're probably right. They'd probably just use a regular buyout on him because he doesn't have an over 35 contract. If that is the case then perhaps you'll wind up seeing the Devils use it on Salvador but I highly doubt it because I think the team values Salvador very highly even still.

 

As far as the Devils not having anyone in their system like Volchenkov, I don't necessarily think that a Volchenkov style of defenseman is even still relevant given the changes that the NHL has undergone since the 2005 lockout. Having defensemen that play with a snarl is important, but they also need to be able to keep up with the play and Volchenkov has seemed to have a harder and harder time keeping up with the play. It seems to me that DeBoer has been more and more reluctant to use him in more and more situations and that has played itself out in his icetime going down by a full 2 minutes on average from last season to this one. He has the lowest average ice time of any defenseman on the team, including Peter Harrold and Adam Larsson. All this for a guy who is the highest paid defenseman on the team.

[SterioDesign]

bottom line and even though i don't like them, we can can look at what MTL did last summer... got a nice top pick, brought up kids, cleaned up the team from the distraction and sat the ones remaining and whoever deserved to play was playing. It was really refreshing and they got good results. They overachieved and got really lucky all season long but still. They also stacked their picks in the last few years (obviously its easy when you're missing the playoffs for sure on the trade deadline.) But they have TONS of good prospects coming and they have 3 2nd round picks this year.

 

I dont think NJ had "locker room problems" like MTL had but its easy to point out who's dragging us down and who's absolutely expendable and costing too much.