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So, I decided to test the accuracy on the Incarcerated Bob stuff since a few of us were discussing it throughout this thread.

... These are his rumors and breaking news (NHL related) from Sunday on...

Nash to Rangers DONE DEAL ---> went on to claim it was a 'reverse jinx' when it seemed obvious Nash wouldn't be traded and that he said it to mess with Ranger fans, then when it looked like the Rangers would be back in midday today, he claimed the 'reverse jinx' was a 'reverse jinx' to fool Ranger fans again. :blink:

Nabokov/Khabibulin/Bishop to Toronto ---> Bishop to Ottawa

Harding to Toronto ---> nothing

Pahlsson has been traded ---> common knowledge he was a probable move, Bob never gave a destination

Schenn to be traded "may already be done" ---> nothing

Kostitsyn has been traded ---> see Pahlsson

Grabovski to Wings/Hawks/Sharks ---> nothing

Roy to Wings/Canucks/Blues ---> nothing

Oduya, Allen, Hamrlik to Boston ---> Oduya to Chicago

Malone to Boston ---> Nothing

Allen has been traded ---> Allen wasn't traded.

Gaustad has been traded ---> see Pahlsson, Kostitsyn

Parenteau to Flames ---> nothing

Ott or Roy to Van/Phi/Det/Stl ---> nothing

Oduya has been traded ---> see Pahlsson, Kostitsyn, Gaustad

Spacek has been traded ---> Spacek wasn't traded

Ott to Bos/Phi/Det/Was ---> nothing

Claimed Schenn/Gustavson/pick to LA for Bernier/Brown/pick ---> All names that were involved in rumors for weeks. No evidence it ever was offered. No one else mentioned it.

If we score it Win-Loss-BlindSquirrelsFindNutsToo

0-14-4.

If you give him the 'blank has been traded' stuff, he has 4 hits, 14 misses or 4 of 18 for 20% if you are REAL generous.

Looks like he isn't much better than Ecklund.

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re: parise - someone saying 20 teams will have cap room is correct but the list gets whittled down very quick when you consider what it will likely take to land parise:

good team

at least $7MM in cap room

ability to max out signing bonus before lockout

location/familiarity

in my mind, here are his teams: NJD, NYR, CHI, MIN, DET

a team like LA or PHI or perhaps SJ, VAN and maybe TOR are considered if the top tier don't meet his needs.

i have no doubt that if the devils can pay him, he stays. its whether the devils can pay him (or even want to beyond something reasonable which would be 7/52) that i have my doubts.

Even though Parise had consecutive seasons of being more than a ppg player, this year he's not been quite there, so I really doubt someone will give him almost $7.5M per season. He obviously brings a lot more than just point production, but anything more than $7M per is a bit too much for him imo. I think that something more like 7/45-48 is more the right price and I think anything more than 7 years is a bit too long since it would allow for one more contract to be signed while avoiding the 35+ contract issues.

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So, I decided to test the accuracy on the Incarcerated Bob stuff since a few of us were discussing it throughout this thread.

... These are his rumors and breaking news (NHL related) from Sunday on...

You had your count, now here's mine. I'm only counting what he did on deadline day itself, and I'm only counting things that he said were done, not rumors. He's a rumor monkey, so taking something labeled as a rumor seriously is a fool's errand. My point with whatever credibility he may or may not have had yesterday was that if you only looked at the deals he said were done, odds were in favor of it being true:

- Pahlsson traded --> correct

- Kostitsyn traded --> correct

- Gaustad traded --> correct

- Oduya traded --> correct

- Spacek traded --> incorrect

- Allen traded --> incorrect

Anything else he said was just rumors. Even with the "blockbuster", he said a couple times "if it goes through" and things like that. Never said it was done.

And as for discounting them because it was "common knowledge he was a probable move", you coulda said that about literally dozens of guys yesterday. Guys he didn't list as being done deals:

- Rick Nash

- Josh Harding

- Derek Roy

- J.S. Giguere

- Dustin Brown

- Dwayne Roloson

- Randy Jones

- Jeff Erskine

- Steve Ott

- Mike Knuble

- Luke Schenn

- Mikael Samuelsson

- Nikolai Khabibulin

- Brandon Dubinsky

- Jason Garrison

- Antti Niemi

- P.A. Parenteau

- David Jones

- Al Montoya

All of those names (and more I'm sure) were mentioned at some point as players likely to be traded. But he didn't name any of them yesterday. He named six guys as having been dealt, and four of them were. If you only looked at the deals he said were done, odds were in favor of it being true.

And as for discounting him because he never gave the destination ... that's not his game. Being first is his game. It's Twitter. Even Bob McKenzie doesn't initially give all info in his first tweet because it's Twitter. But he gave the "So-and-so has been dealt" tweet before anyone else, and if you only looked at the deals he said were done, odds were in favor of it being true.

Like it or not, he called four-of-six trades before anyone else. I feel kinda dirty for defending him because he really comes off as a douchebag and, in the end, he's just another rumor peddler. But 4-for-6 stands out to me. That's way better than just picking names out of a hat. I'll be watching his tweets on July 1. If he pulls an 0-for, then he'll look like the fraud so many are so eager to say he is (BTW, why is it so personal with this guy? Mention his name and people act like he fvcked their wives. He's just some douche on Twitter.). But if he bats above-.500 again, I'll be impressed. Again.

Either way, he was one of the more entertaining aspects of this year's Deadline Day. Discussing his credibility -- of lack thereof -- was one of the few things going on. He entertains me. I can understand why he doesn't entertain everyone.

Buy the ticket, take the ride ...

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He doesn't seem like a highest-bidder guy, ESP at the cost of going to your fans' most hated rival.

Parise, and all professional athletes, don't give a flying fvck what the fans think about where he signs next year. They are professionals playing for money and a chance to win a championship. Different athletes will value those two factors differently, but those are the two biggest concerns, with money coming first. Fans who fervently believe in the hometown discount are just engaging in wishful thinking, projecting their sentimentalism onto the athletes. And before someone says what about Brodeur, his staying for slightly less money than he could have received elsewhere doesn't count; as he said, whatever extra he may have made he would have lost to the agent finding and negotiating the deal.

My favourite rejoinder came from Ozzie Guillen's expletive-filled parting shot at the fans when he left Chicago. Athletes think far more along these lines than any sense of loyalty to the team that signs their paycheques:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/morrissey/7896268-452/ozzie-guillen-asks-out-so-he-could-buy-my-bleeping-boat.html

Btw, it's disturbing hearing a devils fan lavish praise on that organization so easily.

Everything said about the Rangers was true. They are a damn good team this year, with the best goalie in the league, playing hard-nosed tight-checking grind it out hockey. Of course I hate losing to them more than any other team, but finding someone's recognition of the strength of their team disturbing is foolish.

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DIG: Those were the 6 most likely players to move. I could have said that those players were going to be traded. And I would've gotten 4 out of 6 right.

Find me someone -- anyone -- saying before the deadline that those six guys were the six most likely players to move, then I'll happily admit to being wrong. Until then, all I see are people saying those were the most obvious moves after all moves were made. Hindsight, 20/20, so on and so forth.

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Find me someone -- anyone -- saying before the deadline that those six guys were the six most likely players to move, then I'll happily admit to being wrong. Until then, all I see are people saying those were the most obvious moves after all moves were made. Hindsight, 20/20, so on and so forth.

Really? You've got 5 guys there who were UFAs on teams way outside the playoff picture, and the 6th guy was rumored by Lebrun and McKenzie to be in play.

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DIG: Those were the 6 most likely players to move. I could have said that those players were going to be traded. And I would've gotten 4 out of 6 right.

Exactly. It's like Crossing Over with John Edward. It's educated guesses. Not only did he not have destinations, he NEVER mentioned where the players were going OR if the trade ever actually happened. He just said 'Kostitsyn has been traded'. Then, when he got traded, he said 'OH I HAD THIS 2 HOURS AGO!' or whatever. Kostitsyn has been on the way out since he was put on the 4th line in October. It was a pretty good guess he'd be on the move.

When everyone else said 'Oduya is in play', Inc Bob said 'Oduya has been traded!' around 1pm. Shot in the dark. Once they picked up Clitsome, Oduya getting moved was nearly a definite. So then when he DID get traded (around 2:15), he claimed he called that one, too.

He claimed Spacek and Allen were traded when it was reported that they left practice early. He took a shot in the dark and he was wrong.

As for Rick Nash, he called it a DONE DEAL Sunday! Then he got caught in a lie and claimed he made it up to mess with Ranger fans. Then, with 15 minutes to go in the deadline, he said "BIG DEAL COMING" with hopes a big deal would go down. Nothing happened, so he just said oh Toronto and LA had a big one coming but Burke backed off.

He's known for calling the Asumugha to Jets an absolute done deal last summer, and both sides said they never really even got close.

As for July 1st, my guess is he'll just say 'so and so has signed! waiting for league approval' and other vague things.

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Parise, and all professional athletes, don't give a flying fvck what the fans think about where he signs next year. They are professionals playing for money and a chance to win a championship. Different athletes will value those two factors differently, but those are the two biggest concerns, with money coming first. Fans who fervently believe in the hometown discount are just engaging in wishful thinking, projecting their sentimentalism onto the athletes. And before someone says what about Brodeur, his staying for slightly less money than he could have received elsewhere doesn't count; as he said, whatever extra he may have made he would have lost to the agent finding and negotiating the deal.

I think you're too cynical vis-a-via Marty. What Marty could have gotten on the open market all these years minus an agent's cut would still be significantly more than what he made from us. You said it yourself, athletes care about winning and money but in different ratios, Marty took a discount here because he cared a lot more about winning and stability than money.

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Really? You've got 5 guys there who were UFAs on teams way outside the playoff picture, and the 6th guy was rumored by Lebrun and McKenzie to be in play.

Are those the only 5 UFAs on teams way outside the playoff picture? Was the 6th guy the only guy rumored by Lebrun and McKenzie?

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Again. I'd be a lot more impressed if he called the destination for any of those guys. If he 'knew' they were dealt, he'd at least know where they were going. Making educated guesses and passing them off as vague fact doesn't impress me one bit.

I could care less about the guy, it just amazes me people here and elsewhere think this guy actually has inside knowledge, it's one of the best con jobs in the history of the internet.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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Are those the only 5 UFAs on teams way outside the playoff picture? Was the 6th guy the only guy rumored by Lebrun and McKenzie?

I mean, basically, by deadline day? Yes, except Travis Moen, who had very little traction wrt rumors about him. Go to capgeek and check it out. Edmonton re-signed Hemsky, Sutton, and is going to re-sign Smyth. Anaheim thinks it's in the playoff race (and hell they actually might be). Derek Roy - I wasn't sure he was going to move, the Sabres really don't have any centers and there's no one available in the off-season.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/15008/weekend-rumblings-bonus-edition-whos-left

Here's Lebrun talking about Gaustad and Kostitsyn. LeBrun also tweeted that Oduya was in play. So there's 3. Lebrun also talked about Spacek in a later blog post. That's 4. Allen had been talked about for weeks. There's 5. And everyone knew Pahlsson was going somewhere.

Notice that Bob did not call the Schultz/Gilbert or Hodgson/Kassian deals - he did not do so even after TSN had the fact that Vancouver was involved with another deal. That's because these are the sort of deal that no one besides the teams involved sees coming.

These Internet rumormongers might have a source or two, but mostly they are using that legitimate source to prop up their reputation while they make all kinds of silly ass guesses. Furthermore, while I don't care if people follow these guys, I don't think they have any legitimacy and they shouldn't be talked about here. Or make an Єklund (2.3% accurate)/IncarceratedBob/HockeyInsiderr containment thread and go nuts in there with 3 dudes making sh!t up.

Edited by Triumph
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you're not impressed by him guys ? Good for you !!! Now let us be impressed by him and stop talking sh!t on a guy who unlike all the other guys that you follow calls the trade and actually say that they are done.

TSN on Kotsytsin, Oduya and all the other players that were rumored: TRADE BAITS

INCARCERATED BOB on the same players: Kotsytsin traded !!! (Something like 3 hours before TSN broke the news)

Rumored and traded is different. If you're not impressed or don't like the guy fine, but I prefer following a guy that is 4 for 6 than a bunch of other guys who can tell me that this guy or this players is rumored or likely to be moved based on the fact that his team is out of a player picture (I kinda know the drill since its the same thing every trade deadline)

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Again, if he knew they were traded, he'd know where they were going. That's like me saying the Republicans have won Alabama and South Carolina in November and passing myself off as a political guru for 'calling it' first. He called Nash to the Rangers - again without any detail and when it was heavily rumored - then when it didn't happen he claimed he was fibbing.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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you're not impressed by him guys ? Good for you !!! Now let us be impressed by him and stop talking sh!t on a guy who unlike all the other guys that you follow calls the trade and actually say that they are done.

TSN on Kotsytsin, Oduya and all the other players that were rumored: TRADE BAITS

INCARCERATED BOB on the same players: Kotsytsin traded !!! (Something like 3 hours before TSN broke the news)

Rumored and traded is different. If you're not impressed or don't like the guy fine, but I prefer following a guy that is 4 for 6 than a bunch of other guys who can tell me that this guy or this players is rumored or likely to be moved based on the fact that his team is out of a player picture (I kinda know the drill since its the same thing every trade deadline)

You have to be sh!tting me. DD56 said that IB broke the news that Pahlsson was traded 6 hours before TSN. Now what do you think is more likely - IB guessed that Pahlsson was going to be traded and threw his name out there to claim that he 'broke the story', or that somehow, the rest of the hockey world's sources are just that slow when normally they are right on top of everything? And you're going to discount the fact that he called 2 trades that never happened? (And that Rutherford claimed he had no substantial talks with any team about those two being dealt)

I'll enjoy his July 1 'Player X has SIGNED WITH A TEAM!!!'

Like I said, follow him if you want, but recognize that the guy almost certainly does not have a better source than the mainstream media does. He's just guessing.

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In that Lebrun article, he makes no mention of Gaustad, says Kostitsyn is 50-50 to be dealt, Ribiero and Ott could be had for the right price, Souray would be an 11th-hour decision, and Khabibulin is the Leafs' most likely goalie target. There's also no talk of Oduya, Pahlsson, Spacek, or Allen. If IBN was just copying Lebrun, he woulda been 1-for-5.

Here's another Lebrun piece, this one from Sunday. In it, he only mentions one of the six guys IBN said was traded: Oduya. That ups the number of shared players between Lebrun and IBN to a whopping two. He also mentions a couple of other players that IBN didn't.

Haven't been able too search too exhaustively, but I can't find anything from McKenzie or even Dreger giving a list of most likely trade chips.

The theory that IBN is just stealing his stuff from Lebrun and McKenzie doesn't seem to have a whole lot of traction to it.

And FWIW, I wouldn't be opposed to two separate threads, one for confirmed deals and the other for rumors. Keep the speculation of potential deals and evaluation of completed deals separate.

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In that Lebrun article, he makes no mention of Gaustad, says Kostitsyn is 50-50 to be dealt, Ribiero and Ott could be had for the right price, Souray would be an 11th-hour decision, and Khabibulin is the Leafs' most likely goalie target. There's also no talk of Oduya, Pahlsson, Spacek, or Allen. If IBN was just copying Lebrun, he woulda been 1-for-5.

That's one Lebrun article, there's another one that mentions Gaustad. Ribeiro, Ott, Khabibulin are not UFAs. Souray is not a UFA off a team that's conclusively out of the playoffs.

The theory that IBN is just stealing his stuff from Lebrun and McKenzie doesn't seem to have a whole lot of traction to it.

That's not exactly what I meant. What I'm saying is that IBN understands how these things work, is up on the latest information from legitimate sources, and was throwing things out there based on the most likely result. You're ignoring the fact that he called 2 trades that never happened and that he is calling that players got traded and not what teams they got traded to. If he had gone 4 for 4 yesterday, okay, MAYBE he's not just guessing. But he went 4 for 6 on TRADES THAT WERE LIKELY TO HAPPEN, and didn't even call them right. If I had been in his shoes, I would've called Spacek getting dealt for sure, I was surprised that that didn't happen.

Frankly, I don't like rumormongers because they give easy ammunition to people who think that Internet writers or journalists are sh!t and that the mainstream media are the only legitimate sources for anything. The mainstream media are linked in to scouts and general managers, that's why they're great for knowing about trade talk, but that's part of why they're generally poor at evaluating what's actually going on in the league - they rely too much on the consensus opinion. These guys clearly invent rumors, try to link big deals to popular teams, and are trying desperately for attention even when they are 100% spouting lies and conjecture. And like I said, I think Єklund (2.3% accurate) and IB might have a real source or two, somewhere. Єklund (2.3% accurate) called Vishnevsky to NJ and he had the Mike Richards trade before anyone - the latter one suggests he has a source in the Flyer organization, because only a loon would've said that after Carter was dealt.

And FWIW, I wouldn't be opposed to two separate threads, one for confirmed deals and the other for rumors. Keep the speculation of potential deals and evaluation of completed deals separate.

I wouldn't be opposed to two threads either - a trade thoughts/actual trades thread and an Єklund (2.3% accurate)/IncarceratedBob/HockeyInsiderr thread for people who like to get sucked in by the E.K.L.U.N.D. system.

Edited by Triumph
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Parise, and all professional athletes, don't give a flying fvck what the fans think about where he signs next year. They are professionals playing for money and a chance to win a championship. Different athletes will value those two factors differently, but those are the two biggest concerns, with money coming first. Fans who fervently believe in the hometown discount are just engaging in wishful thinking, projecting their sentimentalism onto the athletes. And before someone says what about Brodeur, his staying for slightly less money than he could have received elsewhere doesn't count; as he said, whatever extra he may have made he would have lost to the agent finding and negotiating the deal.

Cynicism at its finest. Wrong on Marty btw.

Everything said about the Rangers was true. They are a damn good team this year, with the best goalie in the league, playing hard-nosed tight-checking grind it out hockey. Of course I hate losing to them more than any other team, but finding someone's recognition of the strength of their team disturbing is foolish.

And no, not everything he said about New York was true, such as Prise wanting to play in New York because its New York. What does that even mean? The guy practically lives in New York, as is. Its like saying he'd consider the Rangers because of the 'world's most famous arena'...give me a break :rolleyes:

Recognizing a team's strength and boasting about them are two different things.

Again, Parise doesnt seem like a highest-bidder type guy. Based on his interviews, he would want a combination of good pay, stability, good team, etc...like a lot of atheletes. I think he also has enough respect and understanding for this fan base and Lou to know what signing for the Rags would mean to the point where it would factor in.

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That's one Lebrun article, there's another one that mentions Gaustad. Ribeiro, Ott, Khabibulin are not UFAs. Souray is not a UFA off a team that's conclusively out of the playoffs.

That's not exactly what I meant. What I'm saying is that IBN understands how these things work, is up on the latest information from legitimate sources, and was throwing things out there based on the most likely result. You're ignoring the fact that he called 2 trades that never happened and that he is calling that players got traded and not what teams they got traded to. If he had gone 4 for 4 yesterday, okay, MAYBE he's not just guessing. But he went 4 for 6 on TRADES THAT WERE LIKELY TO HAPPEN, and didn't even call them right. If I had been in his shoes, I would've called Spacek getting dealt for sure, I was surprised that that didn't happen.

OK, I get what you're saying now. But I still think that if it was that easy, more people woulda called more trades successfully. And I still think that 4-for-6, no matter how likely they were, is pretty good. There were way more than six players who fit the "likely to be traded" criteria out there. If nothing else, he could at least get some credit for being a good guesser, but people who hate him seem to hate him so much that they can't even give that. It really is as if it's personal with him. I haven't been following him long enough to get (or care about) that.

Frankly, I don't like rumormongers because they give easy ammunition to people who think that Internet writers or journalists are sh!t and that the mainstream media are the only legitimate sources for anything. The mainstream media are linked in to scouts and general managers, that's why they're great for knowing about trade talk, but that's part of why they're generally poor at evaluating what's actually going on in the league - they rely too much on the consensus opinion. These guys clearly invent rumors, try to link big deals to popular teams, and are trying desperately for attention even when they are 100% spouting lies and conjecture. And like I said, I think Єklund (2.3% accurate) and IB might have a real source or two, somewhere. Єklund (2.3% accurate) called Vishnevsky to NJ and he had the Mike Richards trade before anyone - the latter one suggests he has a source in the Flyer organization, because only a loon would've said that after Carter was dealt.

Oh, believe me, I get that. I studied journalism, covered pressers for the Eagles and Flyers as an intern, was a sports writer at one paper and sports editor at another. But if people are too stupid to know the difference between bloggers, rumor mongers, and legitimate journalists, then I honestly don't care what they think. IBN is a rumor monger. Going 4-for-6 makes me think he has some decent sources. And don't forget, both of his misses came from the same team, leaving room for the presumption that his blemishes came from the same source. That 4-for-6 on deals could possibly also be read as 4-of-5 sources were reliable.

I wouldn't be opposed to two threads either - a trade thoughts/actual trades thread and an Єklund (2.3% accurate)/IncarceratedBob/HockeyInsiderr thread for people who like to get sucked in by the E.K.L.U.N.D. system.

It's weird. I hate Єklund (2.3% accurate), but was drawn in by IBN yesterday. Maybe more time following him will put him in the same light as Ek to me, but he got off on a good enough of a foot to keep me interested.

And to 4978's earlier point, for all anyone knows, IBN's sources (if he actually has sources) are just a towel boy with the team who saw a coach pull a player aside. You can have sources who provide info, but not all info. The less of a legitimate journalist someone is, the less likely they are to have sources who know everything. Expecting a rumor monger with "Incarcerated" in his Twitter handle to compete with Bob "Mr. Hockey Journalism" McKenzie for quality sources isn't realistic, nor is expecting the same level of information.

For a lot of people, innuendo from a towel boy isn't what you'd care about on deadline day. And that's fair. Two threads next time around could help with that. But for people like me, it adds to the fun of deadline day. To each his own.

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Just wanted to point out, it wasn't just 4 for 6. Including Nash, 4 for 7. Including Schenn (something to the affect of "Schenn has been told he will be traded today, may already be gone"), that's 4 for 8. I can't find that Tweet anymore. It was early yesterday, just before he mentioned Kostitsyn.

He definitely trumps it up when he is right and ignores when he is wrong. Might he have a real source or 2? It's definitely possible. But a lot of what he says is throwing poo against the wall.

What really gets to me is the handling of the Nash thing. That is the glaring example for me. To claim you were kidding after 'breaking' that kind of story shows me that he bluffed and got nailed. Then, to reverse AGAIN and claim you kidding when you said you were kidding... I mean that's too much.

When it comes to hockey, I've found McKenzie, Dreger, and surprisingly Kypreos seem to have stuff pretty early. And of course, how could we forget Potvin??? :giggle:

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I didn't follow this IB stuff, but it makes perfect sense to me that IB (or anyone not employed as a hockey writer) would have looser lips than Bob McKenzie. IB has no real reputation to maintain, and is willing to be right only a percentage of the time in order to be first. Bob McKenzie can't say anything unless he's ~100% certain it's happening. I can totally see certain organizations having leaks and IB or Єklund (2.3% accurate) being the first to report them over a legitimate news source.

HOWEVER, their batting average is just too poor for me to give them much credence. As others are saying, they really aren't much better than just seeing who's a UFA on a bad team, and guessing they will be traded.

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And no, not everything he said about New York was true, such as Prise wanting to play in New York because its New York.

Sorry, you're right on that one.

I think he also has enough respect and understanding for this fan base and Lou to know what signing for the Rags would mean to the point where it would factor in.

Again, that's the height of sentimentality to think the fans factor into an athlete's decision. I can just see him sitting at the table with his agent and family saying "Well, the Rangers look like a real contender, have all the money in the world, and have been building the right way through the draft the last 5 years, but you know, the fans in New Jersey really don't like them, so I can't consider it." What a joke!

I want him to sign here just as much as anyone, but it's inconceivable that he gives a rats ass what I think, or what any other fan thinks.

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Sorry, you're right on that one.

Again, that's the height of sentimentality to think the fans factor into an athlete's decision. I can just see him sitting at the table with his agent and family saying "Well, the Rangers look like a real contender, have all the money in the world, and have been building the right way through the draft the last 5 years, but you know, the fans in New Jersey really don't like them, so I can't consider it." What a joke!

I want him to sign here just as much as anyone, but it's inconceivable that he gives a rats ass what I think, or what any other fan thinks.

Well I'm not saying it would be on his top 20 list of things he was looking for; and if the Rags offered him the moon on a gold plate then yeah, it wouldnt matter what he thought of us devil fans. I just think that all things being equal that it would be something in the back of his mind. You'd probably still disagree and maybe I am interpreting his interviews too optimistically, but you do see some players develop a loyalty over time.

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