2016 Draft

[CommonDreads]

Hopefully Edmonton wins some games when McDavid is back and they push themselves down into Juolevi range, I'd be livid if they landed Matthews, Chychrun, or Puljujarvi though.

[themightyall]

I can't help but think that the Oilers are a perfect example of why the whole "worst(esque) team gets the best player" concept.  So many players are talented; it's about the development of those players into a system that accents those talents.  The NHL changes the all star game every few years, why not change the concept of the draft every few years.  It's stops teams from tanking because they don't know the structure of the draft every year, it leads to a more interesting draft order where the reveal is about how they decided it and it incentivizes teams to not rely on being so bad that they are rewarded for it.

[SterioDesign]

I can't help but think that the Oilers are a perfect example of why the whole "worst(esque) team gets the best player" concept.  So many players are talented; it's about the development of those players into a system that accents those talents.  The NHL changes the all star game every few years, why not change the concept of the draft every few years.  It's stops teams from tanking because they don't know the structure of the draft every year, it leads to a more interesting draft order where the reveal is about how they decided it and it incentivizes teams to not rely on being so bad that they are rewarded for it.

 

I dont know how it could be done.... but something has to be done. It's absolutely INSANE that they just keep getting those top guys all the time. They just can't fvcking run a franchise. and many different guys tried but they can't get it done.

 

I don't even have an answer or suggestion on how to do it. Maybe simply that a team can't get the first overall 2 years in a row... that they are bumped 2nd overall or something i dont know.

[HellOnICE]

fvck edmonton. DIsgusting.

[Daniel]

I can't help but think that the Oilers are a perfect example of why the whole "worst(esque) team gets the best player" concept. So many players are talented; it's about the development of those players into a system that accents those talents. The NHL changes the all star game every few years, why not change the concept of the draft every few years. It's stops teams from tanking because they don't know the structure of the draft every year, it leads to a more interesting draft order where the reveal is about how they decided it and it incentivizes teams to not rely on being so bad that they are rewarded for it.

A reverse draft with some kind of lottery system is the best way to divvy up talent if you want a league with 30 or so teams that should realistically have a shot at competing for a championship at some point. You could do an even odds lottery system if you want, but I could imagine the howls of protest if Blackhawks won the McDavid sweepstakes. So it stinks that Edmonton has stock piled so much talent by being so terrible for a long time, but in the long run the salary cap should temper it a little bit. I mean, if Edmonton does end up getting Matthews, it's difficult to see how, in three to four years time, they can keep Hall, RNH, Matthews, McDavid, Dreistl all under contract even if they haven't signed UFA deals.

The only other system that might accomplish the same result would to have a system wide salary cap but with no draft. That is there's a salary cap for all 50 players a team has under contract, there's no draft and all 18 year olds are free agents. So if the Rangers wanted to throw a ton of money at McDavid they could, but it means that they basically have a farm system with no one that has a shot at having a cup of coffee in the NHL and probably would have to dump some of their better players on the NHL roster for not much of a return.

Otherwise, North American sports basically becomes like a lot of European football leagues where only a handful of teams dominate the league for a very long time because they can buy up all the talent at a young age.

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[CommonDreads]

Really it's just sad how poorly Edmonton manages their assets, building a team is about assembling the right players, not just the best players, yet they just keep grabbing the consensus number ones and plugging square pegs into round holes. It's up to Oilers brass to move some of those assets to acquire the pieces they actually need, i.e. a top defenseman, top goaltender, defensively oriented forwards, but that's something that they for whatever reason don't seem keen on doing. Until they wake up and start managing their assets better, they're gonna continue to be mediocre.

[AEWHistory]

Stop your dreaming... we all now Edmonton will pick Matthews with the #1 overall pick in 2016.

Such a shame to ruin another career....

[SterioDesign]

It's time for one of those first overall to pull a fvcking Lindros. You tell them straight up at the combine "Do. Not. Pick. Me. I'll go Lindros on you guys or i'd rather wait a few years and pull a Kevin Hayes on you just not signing my entry level contract until i can sign with whoever I want, I'd pick that over playing on your miserable team, so pick the next best guy or trade this pick to ANYONE else and i'll be happy"

 

of course no one would really say that, but someone should lol

[Derlique]

A reverse draft with some kind of lottery system is the best way to divvy up talent if you want a league with 30 or so teams that should realistically have a shot at competing for a championship at some point. You could do an even odds lottery system if you want, but I could imagine the howls of protest if Blackhawks won the McDavid sweepstakes. So it stinks that Edmonton has stock piled so much talent by being so terrible for a long time, but in the long run the salary cap should temper it a little bit. I mean, if Edmonton does end up getting Matthews, it's difficult to see how, in three to four years time, they can keep Hall, RNH, Matthews, McDavid, Dreistl all under contract even if they haven't signed UFA deals.

The only other system that might accomplish the same result would to have a system wide salary cap but with no draft. That is there's a salary cap for all 50 players a team has under contract, there's no draft and all 18 year olds are free agents. So if the Rangers wanted to throw a ton of money at McDavid they could, but it means that they basically have a farm system with no one that has a shot at having a cup of coffee in the NHL and probably would have to dump some of their better players on the NHL roster for not much of a return.

Otherwise, North American sports basically becomes like a lot of European football leagues where only a handful of teams dominate the league for a very long time because they can buy up all the talent at a young age.

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The bolded is going to be a pretty big problem for them in a couple of years. Hall/RNH/Eberle all of 6 million dollar cap hits for the next 4 years. Draistail has really broken out in a big way. I don't think he continues his pace but if he is a 60-70 point center in a year and a half when his deal expires that's easily another 5 million per. Not to mention McDavid who'll get a mega deal when his ELC is up (call it 8.5 million). You're basically committing 33-34 million to 5 forwards, 3 of which are centers. I think they have to move RNH and I'd love it if we could swoop in with something around Severson

[DJ Eco]

It's time for one of those first overall to pull a fvcking Lindros. You tell them straight up at the combine "Do. Not. Pick. Me. I'll go Lindros on you guys or i'd rather wait a few years and pull a Kevin Hayes on you just not signing my entry level contract until i can sign with whoever I want, I'd pick that over playing on your miserable team, so pick the next best guy or trade this pick to ANYONE else and i'll be happy"

 

of course no one would really say that, but someone should lol

 

The problem is, that conventional wisdom keeps telling us (and these kids), "Edmonton's going to be GOOD this year. They can't NOT be good. They HAVE to be good." And that year's draft pick will always think they're the next piece that will push them over the brink. And then the season comes around and they're not. 

 

And the cycle continues each year.

[MadDog2020]

The problem is, that conventional wisdom keeps telling us (and these kids), "Edmonton's going to be GOOD this year. They can't NOT be good. They HAVE to be good." And that year's draft pick will always think they're the next piece that will push them over the brink. And then the season comes around and they're not.

And the cycle continues each year.

The thing about Edmonton is that they actually brought in a credible and respected coach in McLellan and a respected GM in Chiarelli and they are still awful. I understand you can't change culture over night and they still lack a top end D, but I honestly didn't think they'd be dead last in the league AGAIN.

[SterioDesign]

The thing about Edmonton is that they actually brought in a credible and respected coach in McLellan and a respected GM in Chiarelli and they are still awful. I understand you can't change culture over night and they still lack a top end D, but I honestly didn't think they'd be dead last in the league AGAIN.

 

They are 18th in scoring... and 27th in goals against... That's a really really really simplistic way to analyse this. But this is indicating that goaltending and defence are still the problem... which is something they decided to "patch"... they have to stop patching and make something legit  happen, they have the assets to trade one of those top picks players or package something to get a good solid D-man. They could package Hall and Eberle and get a guy like Pietrangelo (wtv im totally just making things up) and i think they'd still be better off that way, to give up that much firepower from up front. They need to balance the team

[thecoffeecake]

Oilers are done sucking, they have a strong management and coaching staff now.

Haha, what we thought was going to happen before October. Why do we bother not assuming Edmonton is going to be terrible? It apparently just doesn't matter who they ice. 

 

It's interesting seeing these mock drafts, because a few days ago I was looking at a bunch of rankings for this draft and Puljujarvi had fallen in almost all of them to 4th or 5th. I looked at 5 or 6, I think only one of them had him going 3rd; they all had Chychrun #2. Tkachuk was largely consenus #3 also, I was surprised. 

 

A couple of interesting thoughts on Mathews. First of all, he's ugly as sin. I can't decide if him or Eichel are more difficult to look at. Secondly, he might be the only North American player in the NHL without a Canadian accent. Every American picks it up somehow, but he probably had less time with Canadian teammates playing in Scottsdale until he was a little older.

Edited December 2, 2015 by thecoffeecake

[Daniel]

The bolded is going to be a pretty big problem for them in a couple of years. Hall/RNH/Eberle all of 6 million dollar cap hits for the next 4 years. Draistail has really broken out in a big way. I don't think he continues his pace but if he is a 60-70 point center in a year and a half when his deal expires that's easily another 5 million per. Not to mention McDavid who'll get a mega deal when his ELC is up (call it 8.5 million). You're basically committing 33-34 million to 5 forwards, 3 of which are centers. I think they have to move RNH and I'd love it if we could swoop in with something around Severson

 

One of the TSN guys said that RNH or Eberle are the two that will probably be dealt at some point.  Evidently McDavid, Hall and Dreisetl are the untouchables. 

[Derlique]

One of the TSN guys said that RNH or Eberle are the two that will probably be dealt at some point.  Evidently McDavid, Hall and Dreisetl are the untouchables. 

Makes sense.

 

Hall is an elite wingers

 

McDavid will probably be the best of the bunch

Draisaitl has shown flashes that he can be a proflic scorer

 

Eberle is the oldest of the bunch and probably the least valuable in terms of team success. He's also the first to hit UFA in 2018. RNH is probably a bit diappointing for a #1 overall pick but he's still a number one center who is a really good two-way player. If they want to compete, they need deal one of those guys for d help. The #16 and #33 for Griffin Reinhart was pure lunacy. I dont know if Chiarelli is the guy to get such a trade done

[CommonDreads]

Put out my rankings for December, as usual, check em out if you'd like

 

2016 NHL Draft Rankings - December

1. Auston Matthews, C, Zurich (SUI)

2. Jesse Puljujarvi, C/RW, Karpat (FIN)

3. Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL)

4. Patrik Laine, LW, Tappara (FIN)

5. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL)

6. Julien Gauthier, C/RW, Val-d'Or (QMJHL)

7. Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)

8. Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)

9. Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)

10. Max Jones, C/LW, London (OHL)

[SterioDesign]

Makes sense.

 

Hall is an elite wingers

 

McDavid will probably be the best of the bunch

Draisaitl has shown flashes that he can be a proflic scorer

 

Eberle is the oldest of the bunch and probably the least valuable in terms of team success. He's also the first to hit UFA in 2018. RNH is probably a bit diappointing for a #1 overall pick but he's still a number one center who is a really good two-way player. If they want to compete, they need deal one of those guys for d help. The #16 and #33 for Griffin Reinhart was pure lunacy. I dont know if Chiarelli is the guy to get such a trade done

 

Chiarelli traded Seguin.. so if im Shero im getting on the phone with him and try to get some kind of steal like that lol

[Marshall]

Chiarelli traded Seguin.. so if im Shero im getting on the phone with him and try to get some kind of steal like that lol

 

And Kessel. The moves that organisation has made in the past decade...

[DevsMan84]

I would like to think Chiarelli learned his lesson from those.

[Daniel]

And Kessel. The moves that organisation has made in the past decade...

 

The Kessel deal would have been a giant homerun had Chiarella not practically given Seguin away.  (Dealing Hamilton was on later management).   Kessel for Seguin and Hamilton, not to mention the fact that the Bruins managed to win a Cup and be one of the elite teams in the league for three or four years after the trade before either Seguin/Kessel were difference makers. 

[Marshall]

The Kessel deal would have been a giant homerun had Chiarella not practically given Seguin away.  (Dealing Hamilton was on later management).   Kessel for Seguin and Hamilton, not to mention the fact that the Bruins managed to win a Cup and be one of the elite teams in the league for three or four years after the trade before either Seguin/Kessel were difference makers. 

 

Certainly, but the same reasoning/philosophy behind the Kessel trade drove the two other deals. To me, Boston has been front office-wise a pretty terrible organisation that had some immense luck and then pissed all that good fortune away.

[Derlique]

Certainly, but the same reasoning/philosophy behind the Kessel trade drove the two other deals. To me, Boston has been front office-wise a pretty terrible organisation that had some immense luck and then pissed all that good fortune away.

They were very lucky to scoop up Chara as a UFA and Tim Thomas developed into an elite goalie in his MID THIRTIES(!).

 

Thornton for peanuts

Kessel for two picks (Seguin and Hamilton)

Seguin for peanuts

Hamilton for peanuts

---

I will say that Sweeney did very well with the Lucic and Jones trades, but his philosophy is clearly warped considering his first round picks and trading for Rinaldo

[Daniel]

Certainly, but the same reasoning/philosophy behind the Kessel trade drove the two other deals. To me, Boston has been front office-wise a pretty terrible organisation that had some immense luck and then pissed all that good fortune away.

 

If I recall, the Kessel trade had more to do with cap management than it did with perceived character issues.  Also, a good team with cap issues is better off trading for draft picks especially when the picks you are getting are from a team that isn't that great. 

 

The Seguin trade, especially when you consider the return, reeks of pure hubris.  And from what you hear about the Hamilton deal -- apparently the Bruins didn't make much of an effort to raise the asking price by shopping him to multiple teams -- it appears that's more of a case of poor negotiating. 

 

At this point though, it appears that Chiarella has enough self-awareness that he realizes how terrible the Seguin trade was, and won't make the same mistake with whatever big trade he ends up making in Edmonton.  Although, perhaps the Griffin Reinhart trade is already enough to prove me wrong on that one. 

They were very lucky to scoop up Chara as a UFA and Tim Thomas developed into an elite goalie in his MID THIRTIES(!).

 

Thornton for peanuts

Kessel for two picks (Seguin and Hamilton)

Seguin for peanuts

Hamilton for peanuts

---

I will say that Sweeney did very well with the Lucic and Jones trades, but his philosophy is clearly warped considering his first round picks and trading for Rinaldo

 

Was Chiarella the GM when Thornton was traded?

[MadDog2020]

If I recall, the Kessel trade had more to do with cap management than it did with perceived character issues. Also, a good team with cap issues is better off trading for draft picks especially when the picks you are getting are from a team that isn't that great.

The Seguin trade, especially when you consider the return, reeks of pure hubris. And from what you hear about the Hamilton deal -- apparently the Bruins didn't make much of an effort to raise the asking price by shopping him to multiple teams -- it appears that's more of a case of poor negotiating.

At this point though, it appears that Chiarella has enough self-awareness that he realizes how terrible the Seguin trade was, and won't make the same mistake with whatever big trade he ends up making in Edmonton. Although, perhaps the Griffin Reinhart trade is already enough to prove me wrong on that one.

Was Chiarella the GM when Thornton was traded?

No, I think Mike O'Connell was the GM who made the Thornton deal if memory serves...

[Marshall]

If I recall, the Kessel trade had more to do with cap management than it did with perceived character issues.  Also, a good team with cap issues is better off trading for draft picks especially when the picks you are getting are from a team that isn't that great. 

 

The Seguin trade, especially when you consider the return, reeks of pure hubris.  And from what you hear about the Hamilton deal -- apparently the Bruins didn't make much of an effort to raise the asking price by shopping him to multiple teams -- it appears that's more of a case of poor negotiating. 

 

At this point though, it appears that Chiarella has enough self-awareness that he realizes how terrible the Seguin trade was, and won't make the same mistake with whatever big trade he ends up making in Edmonton.  Although, perhaps the Griffin Reinhart trade is already enough to prove me wrong on that one. 

 

 

 

Yes, Kessel wanted to get paid. I guess part of it is the character assassinations that went on in the media afterwards and the "Behind The B"-clip when they decided on Seguin certainly didn't help my view of that. 

 

As for Chiarelli changing...I mean, I'd like to believe you change and understand your mistakes when you do trades like that, but the Reinhart move makes it really hard for me to believe that.