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I predict Kovy's numbers will improve with the departure of Parise


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#1 Jerzey Devil

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:26 AM

How many times throughout the season did Kovy make a bad pass to Parise because he didn't want to seem selfish (or because Zach was constantly slapping his stick on the ice asking for a pass)? I honestly think Kovy tried to make plays to Zach whenever he could. Too many times in fact. There were so many times where I wish he would have just shot the puck instead of trying to please Zach.

Hopefully now that Zach is gone Kovy will be a little more selfish with his shooting (not his puck handling) and put up some more goals. Now I'm just hoping/wondering if Kovy goes back to the left side of the ice. No more compromises.

Kovy-Zajac-Henrique is my prediction unless Lou makes a trade for a RW.
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#2 Chuck the Duck

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:41 AM

I hope you are right, but I don't see that happening. Teams can focus on Kovy more with Zach not there. Also, not having Zach go into the corners and forecheck the hell out of teams is going to hurt that line. Hopefully Henrique can fill the void as much as possible, but no matter what, we are going to have to replace the production Zach brought somehow. I don't see that happening at this point, and through Lou's comments yesterday, he seems comfortable going into the season as is with Tedenby given a shot in the top 6.
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#3 DevsMan84

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:25 AM

I hope you are right, but I don't see that happening. Teams can focus on Kovy more with Zach not there. Also, not having Zach go into the corners and forecheck the hell out of teams is going to hurt that line. Hopefully Henrique can fill the void as much as possible, but no matter what, we are going to have to replace the production Zach brought somehow. I don't see that happening at this point, and through Lou's comments yesterday, he seems comfortable going into the season as is with Tedenby given a shot in the top 6.



While I doubt Tedenby is the answer for anything, if he comes out and plays to his potential, then I will eat crow for the entire season. I really do hope he makes me look like a jackass this season for everything I have said the past year and change.
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#4 Daniel

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:35 AM

I would rather Kovy have the same numbers as last year without sacrificing his dramatic defensive improvement than him scoring 50 goals.

If he can be a point a game scorer for the next four years while being solid enough defensively, his contract will have been well worth it. Following the DeBoer adjustment period and once Parise found his legs, Kovy was one of the five best forwards in the league last year.
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#5 NewarkDevil5

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:46 AM

Zubrus Zajac Kovalchuk
Elias Henrique Clarkson
Tedenby Josefson Bernier
Gionta Carter Barch

After looking at that as a starting lineup I think it's safe to say we need Alexander Semin.
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#6 Triumph

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:53 AM

Without Parise, Kovalchuk's difficulty in driving play will be exposed. And Kovalchuk is never going to be a rock-brained shoot-first North American player - this leads him to passing the puck at times when he should shoot.
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#7 justdo3043

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:54 AM

haven't seen anyone mention a worry about Kovi's "injury" at the end of the awesome playoff run...anyone else concerned this is going to be a nagging injury which will hurt his numbers
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#8 Daniel

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:56 AM

haven't seen anyone mention a worry about Kovi's "injury" at the end of the awesome playoff run...anyone else concerned this is going to be a nagging injury which will hurt his numbers


We discussed this earlier. A reminder, what I've heard is that it was a sciatica nerve problem. Lay opinions here ranged from, all he needs is rest to being a chronic injury. No one knows.
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#9 Daniel

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:01 AM

Without Parise, Kovalchuk's difficulty in driving play will be exposed. And Kovalchuk is never going to be a rock-brained shoot-first North American player - this leads him to passing the puck at times when he should shoot.


What does "driving play" mean? I browsed your blog, and it just seems to be a collection of advanced stats.

How do you conclude that he passes too much? Just watching the games? Certainly on the power play, he's got no problem doing the bombs away every chance he gets. And he seemed to me to be perfectly fine with shooting a lot.
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#10 SMantzas

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:03 AM

What does "driving play" mean? I browsed your blog, and it just seems to be a collection of advanced stats.

How do you conclude that he passes too much? Just watching the games? Certainly on the power play, he's got no problem doing the bombs away every chance he gets. And he seemed to me to be perfectly fine with shooting a lot.

I think it's most obvious on 2 on 1s. I'd say he passes close to 75%, which is way too often for someone who has a top 3 shot in the league
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#11 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:05 AM

I remember when Kovalchuk came here, people advocated against re-signing him because he shot too much. Kovy's all around season last year is about as good as I think it gets. Sure give or take five or so points on puck luck a year but he's done his job.

48 assists = 48 goals scored.
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#12 justdo3043

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:08 AM

We discussed this earlier. A reminder, what I've heard is that it was a sciatica nerve problem. Lay opinions here ranged from, all he needs is rest to being a chronic injury. No one knows.


thanks for updating me....guess we'll have to see
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#13 RedArmy8

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:09 AM

Without Parise, Kovalchuk's difficulty in driving play will be exposed. And Kovalchuk is never going to be a rock-brained shoot-first North American player - this leads him to passing the puck at times when he should shoot.


I would agree, I think Kovy's numbers will drop again as teams will be able to focus solely on him without the threat of Parise on the other side of the ice. Kovy doesn't do well in higher traffic area's.

I am also concerned that he will never be 100% with a back injury and maybe in and out of the line-up next year.
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#14 Triumph

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:13 AM

What does "driving play" mean? I browsed your blog, and it just seems to be a collection of advanced stats.


It means getting the puck into the offensive end and keeping it there. Play drivers lift their linemates and make them functionally better players because of their puck possession ability. Zach Parise was one of these although this year he had a downturn - still, his 2nd half numbers were right in line with his career.

How do you conclude that he passes too much? Just watching the games? Certainly on the power play, he's got no problem doing the bombs away every chance he gets. And he seemed to me to be perfectly fine with shooting a lot.


It's always a complaint around here - that's what I was drawing on. No one ever complained that Jamie Langenbrunner passed too much, for instance.
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#15 Mayday

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:20 AM

If Kovalchuk is healthy I expect him to go 45-40-85.
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#16 Daniel

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:24 AM

I think it's most obvious on 2 on 1s. I'd say he passes close to 75%, which is way too often for someone who has a top 3 shot in the league


Even if correct, it's a pretty thin analysis. To see a real trend, you'd have to a painstaking analysis like they do at INLWT of all of his two on ones. Was the defender concentrating on Kovy, was the goalie cheating to one side, was the puck on edge?

What I see with my own eyes is a big fast skater with a great shot, who stick handles very well, and that seems to convert on his break-aways at an incredibly high rate, including on penalty shots, which do decide whether you win games.

Look, the team is worse off not having Parise. That would be true of any team. However, in post-MacLean 2010-2011, Kovy was great without Parise and without Henrique. So while playing with Parise will help anyone, be it Crosby or Nick Palmieri, Kovy should still produce at a high level without him.

The big issue is his health. So long as that turns out ok and so long as he doesn't revert to his old ways of trying to do everything himself, which is more a mental thing that can be mitigated by good coaching, it's not unreasonable to expect him to be one of the top ten forwards in the league, if not top five.
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#17 Daniel

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 11:26 AM

It means getting the puck into the offensive end and keeping it there. Play drivers lift their linemates and make them functionally better players because of their puck possession ability. Zach Parise was one of these although this year he had a downturn - still, his 2nd half numbers were right in line with his career.


Question, wasn't that the case with everyone by virtue of DeBoer's coaching, which stresses that?
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#18 DJ Eco

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 12:43 PM

I can't really say Parise made Kovy's play better (like he did with some other players), which is why I think his numbers will probably stay about the same or a little better..
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#19 Devils731

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 01:56 PM

Question, wasn't that the case with everyone by virtue of DeBoer's coaching, which stresses that?


Parise has been extremely good at this for seasons, so now it's not DeBoer's coaching.
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#20 Devils731

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 01:59 PM

I can't really say Parise made Kovy's play better (like he did with some other players), which is why I think his numbers will probably stay about the same or a little better..


I was going to say something similar. Parise and Kovy want to be on lines that play different styles, and Kovy was the one adapting to Parise's style more than the other way around.

I don't know if Kovy's numbers will improve, they were some of the best in the league last season so there isn't much room to go up. It won't surprise me though, if a line built around Kovy ends up seeing that slight improvement.
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