devilsrule33 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Travis Yost was an excellent banalytics blogger before being hired by TSN.ca to write for them. Here he is on the 2014-2015 Devils, and it is quite an interesting read, especially on the defensive end. When an entire team is struggling, it’s difficult to pinpoint just what line or what pairing is specifically getting beaten up. In New Jersey’s case, everyone has taken a step back, so comparisons against last year’s 5-on-5 numbers are going to be gory across the board. What if we compared to expected numbers based on league norms, though, and broke those comparisons down by line and pairing? The disparities may highlight what players are playing reasonably well, and what players are struggling. What I’ve done here is sorted each forward and defensemen by ice time, then compared the respective player’s Corsi% against the league average player in that role (e.g. first line forward, second-pairing defender – with HockeyGraphs supplying the “expected” numbers). Who stands out? We have talked about Jaromir Jagr being a timeless masterpiece before, and for good reason. It’s amazing to still say this, but even as a 42-year old, he’s a bona fide first-line forward. We know this because he’s out-performing most first-line forwards by Corsi% standards at an age where most players’ production has long fallen off of a cliff. The problem with this is that he hasn’t had much help. Zajac’s been OK, and Elias has been good, but limited at times due to injury/illness. New Jersey’s ‘second line’ is really where they’re getting annihilated. Adam Henrique, Dainius Zubrus, Mike Cammalleri, and Michael Ryder are all getting territorially pummeled. And, the bottom-six isn’t helping things along either, generally underperforming even their limited expectations. http://www.tsn.ca/devils-have-earned-their-poor-record-1.198633 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJosh Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Elias has been a Corsi beast for years despite the circumstances, constantly driving play forward. I thought perhaps this year even he couldn't overcome the garbage around him...but he proves me wrong again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs4978 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Elias has been a Corsi beast for years despite the circumstances, constantly driving play forward. I thought perhaps this year even he couldn't overcome the garbage around him...but he proves me wrong again. This is where I don't trust the numbers though...Elias has been bad this year just watching the games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevsMan84 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is where I don't trust the numbers though...Elias has been bad this year just watching the games. This. Also looking at the graph you would figure Cammy was sucking but he is not. Yes he may not be a play driver like Elias is, but he is not as bad as at least this stat is showing. Stats are great, but they are just pieces of a greater puzzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils731 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Elias, for me, only really struggled when he was hurt. Healthy, he has ranged from ok to good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Eco Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is where I don't trust the numbers though...Elias has been bad this year just watching the games. I agree, but only up until about 3 weeks ago. But yeah, he's looked pretty bad for a majority of what's been the season so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Elias, for me, only really struggled when he was hurt. Healthy, he has ranged from ok to good. hes been quite terrible all season so far, he has strongly improved his game since the new coaching thing took place not sure if that has anything to do with it though but he isnt very productive this season thats for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLL765 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This. Also looking at the graph you would figure Cammy was sucking but he is not. Yes he may not be a play driver like Elias is, but he is not as bad as at least this stat is showing. Stats are great, but they are just pieces of a greater puzzle. I think Cammalleri's CF% has really suffered due to playing center on a garbage 3rd line where he's been regularly anchored by Ryder and Zubrus. There's another article on there about Semin: http://www.tsn.ca/a-deeper-look-at-a-slumping-alexander-semin-1.194712#|gigyaMobileDialog Seems like he might just be having a real unlucky/bad year, but could recover since his relCF% and relSCF% look good. Wonder if they'd retain some salary in a trade. If he bounces back and we draft a center that can step right into the NHL next year, we might be able to be competitive next year. He only has 2 or 3 years left in his deal I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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