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devilsrule33

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Joel Sherman

i have learned deal done with #Rangers, Smoak and 3 others for Lee and reliever Mark Lowe #Rangers, #Mariners

Everybody else seems to be confirming this too....

Well, you my as well give Texas the AL West crown now. I said it a few weeks ago in this thread - they needed a stud like Lee, and now they got him. I wouldn't have traded Smoak for a rental that you know won't resign, but nonetheless, they are going to be pretty scary.

Its funny how the Mariners' return is going to be better than what the Indians and Phillies received for Lee.

Edited by nmigliore
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Ignoring the minor leaguers in the deal, that's a great trade for the Jays. Yunel Escobar is having a down year and the Braves clearly got tired of his lackadaisical work ethic, but hes been a valuable shortstop in the past:

2007 (only 355 PA): +2.4 fWAR, +2.9 rWAR

2008: +3.3 fWAR, +2.9 rWAR

2009: +4.3 fWAR, +5.5 rWAR

(fWAR = Fangraphs' WAR, rWAR = Baseball-Reference's WAR)

Alex Gonzalez isn't that great. Hes having a better year, but that's thanks to a fluky power surge, so don't be surprised if Escobar outperforms him in the 2nd half. The Jays definitely got the much better return.

Edited by nmigliore
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As a Braves fan, I'm happy-ish about this, if that makes sense. It clearly shows that they're going for it all this year by dumping Escobar for someone who is having a better year, though generally isn't thought of as a better shortstop, but if they don't win this year, they could be right back to being crappy. Cox is gone after this year, Chipper is most likely going to retire, and Glaus, Wagner, Prado, and Hinske,among others, are all on one year deals and could very well leave Atlanta for more money elsewhere :noclue: Just have to enjoy this season, I guess.

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As a Braves fan, I'm happy-ish about this, if that makes sense. It clearly shows that they're going for it all this year by dumping Escobar for someone who is having a better year, though generally isn't thought of as a better shortstop, but if they don't win this year, they could be right back to being crappy. Cox is gone after this year, Chipper is most likely going to retire, and Glaus, Wagner, Prado, and Hinske,among others, are all on one year deals and could very well leave Atlanta for more money elsewhere :noclue: Just have to enjoy this season, I guess.

The problem is, Escobar is probably a better bet to outperform Gonzalez in the 2nd half. I'd be stunned if Gonzalez keeps up his crazy power surge, and I'd be equally stunned if Escobar keeps up his power outage.

FWIW, these are ZiPS' projections for the rest of the season for Gonzalez and Escobar:

Escobar: .280/.357/.390, .335 wOBA

Gonzalez: .242/.288/.414, .308 wOBA

I much, much rather have Escobar for this year and beyond. He hasn't even hit his arbitration years yet either.

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  • 2 weeks later...

idk if anyone else has seen this Keith Law v Omar Vizquel nation fight on twitter. But apparently a lot of people think he should be in the Hall of Fame, which is ridiculous. He was never one of the top 3 SS in his league and some of the guys that were better than him aren't going. He also couldn't hit for beans which believe it or not is half the game.

So what does everyone else think about Omar, guys like Jorge Posada, Mike Mussina and whoever else you can think of to the HOF in baseball?

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Vizquel had only 1 season with a WAR above 4; long career with some solid seasons, but not HOF worthy, no way.

yeah it's crazy how many people think he belongs. Law says there are tons of people yelling at him. It's ridiculous for a good not great player. I never once said, I wish the Yankees had Vizquel, that would solve the problems. He was probably the worst players of that Indians infield with Matt Williams, Jim Thome and Robbie Alomar two HOFers and another player who had really, really good years

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Mike Mussina should definitely go in too; hes in the top 25 career WAR among all-time pitchers* and ahead of some pretty big names that will surely go in or are already in. Its pretty funny that he and Pedro Martinez are almost identical in career WAR, though Pedro's peak years (10.1 WAR in 2000, 8.4 WAR in 1999, 8.2 in 1997) are much better than Mussina's (7.4 in 1992, 6.5 in 2001, 6.2 in 2003).

* - And hes in the top 6 of Fangraphs' historical WAR database, though that only dates back to 1980.

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So, Oswalt was finally dealt.... and for a pretty weak return.

Happ is probably okay as a back-end starter, but I'd be willing to bet 2009 was his peak year (his sub-3 ERA was a fluke too). Hes also 27 years old, and by the time the Astros become competitive again, he'll likely be in his 30's, and who knows if he'll even be good enough to still be in a big-league rotation by then. I guess this fits into their line of thinking that they'll be competitive next year, since they also are reluctant to deal Brett Myers :lol:. Outfielder Anthony Gose is a toolsy outfielder whose very raw and far from the Majors, and shortstop Jonathan Villar is another young, raw toolsy player.

So in a nutshell, a back-end starter who makes little sense for the Astros, and a couple of raw, toolsy prospects in A ball. The deal would look a lot better if they got Jonathan Singleton. He would have made a much better centerpiece over Happ.

EDIT: And Houston just flipped Gose to Toronto for Brett Wallace. I guess Toronto opted to shoot for more upside by taking the guy with the higher ceiling [Gose]. Wallace has the much higher floor though. Wallace has some questions about him (he hasn't walked much in AAA, his power and position are question marks), but I'd still personally take him over Gose.

Heh I just read Keith Law's perspective of the trades... he basically feels the Oswalt trade was a 'no-brainer' for Philly and the Gose-for-Wallace swap makes no sense from Toronto's perspective.

Edited by nmigliore
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When you target relievers, you don't target guys having great years. I mean the Jays are demanding a high-level prospect or 2 for Scott Downs; that's ridiculous. Instead you go for guys with strong peripherals but awful luck: Chad Qualls, Jason Frasor, Bobby Jenks, Rafael Betancourt, etc.

I actually think Ramos is a bit overhyped (his defense should carry him but his plate discipline is brutal), but they probably could have gotten something better. It wasn't too long ago there were rumors about him anchoring a package for Cliff Lee....

Edited by nmigliore
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When you target relievers, you don't target guys having great years. I mean the Jays are demanding a high-level prospect or 2 for Scott Downs; that's ridiculous. Instead you go for guys with strong peripherals but awful luck: Chad Qualls, Jason Frasor, Bobby Jenks, Rafael Betancourt, etc.

I actually think Ramos is a bit overhyped (his defense should carry him but his plate discipline is brutal), but they probably could have gotten something better. It wasn't too long ago there were rumors about him anchoring a package for Cliff Lee....

yeah I heard Seattle wanted elite catching prospects (but loved Smoak) so wanted Ramos or Montero and then suddenly he's traded for a mediocre reliever having a good year. You could get Qualls for peanuts right now

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Got to say, I am absolutely loving the Escobar trade. He is playing some great baseball so far and looks to have all the tools. The Wallace trade was obviously a shock, but this would be now the 4th organization to get rid of him so there is something a little wrong. I know Keith Law isn't a fan, and I can understand why. I guess it Adam Lind time at 1B next season.

Should be an interesting day. Still not sure if I want to see Bautista traded or not. It have to be a pretty good deal.

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I'd trade Bautista. Hes got another arbitration year left before hes a free agent, but I don't think that's all that useful to Toronto unless they are sure they can contend with the big 3 in the AL East next year. There is also no guarantee he has a year like this again (I'd strongly bet against it), so sell high.

As for Escobar, good for Toronto, there is no question the Jays got the better end of that deal.

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I'd trade Bautista. Hes got another arbitration year left before hes a free agent, but I don't think that's all that useful to Toronto unless they are sure they can contend with the big 3 in the AL East next year. There is also no guarantee he has a year like this again (I'd strongly bet against it), so sell high.

As for Escobar, good for Toronto, there is no question the Jays got the better end of that deal.

even though their GM is looking like a moron for the Downs thing, he still did fleece the Braves on that one. Sure Cox hated him, but he'll probably hate Gonzalez more since he, you know, sucks.

But I would've gotten rid of Batista after he first started getting good. Somebody'll bite. He's never gonna do this again, so just take the highest offer. Even if he still is great, you couldn't have seen it coming. Just bite the bullet and get rid of him

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So Nolan Ryan's group beat out Cuban's to buy Texas. So at least somebody owns them now pending MLB's approval. Would have loved to see Cubes in baseball but whatever. He can try to buy somebody else after failing with the Cubs and Rangers.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/08/05/rangers.auction.ap/index.html?eref=sihp

They also still have to pay A-Rod 24.9 million more 6 years after the Yankees got him :giggle:

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I don't want to turn this thread into my personal Blue Jays thread but I think it is worth noting that Blue Jays rookie catcher JP Arencibia had the greatest MLB debut of all-time going 4-5 with two home runs and 11 total bases. He finished a triple short of the cycle and went deep in his first ever at bat on his first ever pitch.

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What's so shocking? They need a first baseman. He is a first baseman.

i was expecting they would just leave lowell for the rest of the season at first base

I don't want to turn this thread into my personal Blue Jays thread but I think it is worth noting that Blue Jays rookie catcher JP Arencibia had the greatest MLB debut of all-time going 4-5 with two home runs and 11 total bases. He finished a triple short of the cycle and went deep in his first ever at bat on his first ever pitch.

he did great. the blue jays can definitely hit the long ball this year

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Brandon Morrow has one of the great pitching games I have ever seen and has to be one of the best ever. He was one out away from a no-hitter when Evan Longoria chops a ball between 1st and second. Aaron Hill made an outstanding effort to get a glove on it, but couldn’t keep it in his glove when he hit the ground. I don’t think he had any chance getting Longoria anway.

He finished with a one-hitter and 17Ks absolutely baffling maybe the toughest lineup in all of baseball. He had a 100 game scorer which ties RJ and Schilling as the best games in the last 12 years since Kerry Wood’s 20 K, 1 hit, 0 walk game in 1998.

Now a question for everyone else. There have been some fantastic pitching seasons so far in the NL this year. If the season ended today, who do you guys like as the Cy Young winner?

Right now I think it would come down Johnson, Wainwright, and Halladay, but knowing how the voters mind work, Jimenez is very much in the discussion with his 17-2 win-loss record. Breaking them down with stats that voters look at…

Jimenez:

IP: 148.1

W-L: 17-2

ERA: 2.62

WHIP: 1.11

SO/BB: 135/60

CG: 3

Johnson:

IP: 155

W-L: 10/4

ERA: 1.97

WHIP: 1.01

SO/BB: 156/36

CG: 1

Halladay:

IP: 185

W-L: 14-8

ERA: 2.34

WHIP: 1.03

SO/BB: 168/22

CG: 8

Wainwright:

IP: 169.1

W-L: 16-6

ERA: 2.07

WHIP: 1.00

SO/BB: 154/42

CG: 5

I have no idea how to handicap this. Johnson, Halladay and Wainwright have certainly got the short end of the stick when it comes to wins and losses. Doc had a 9 inning, 5 hit, 0 run game go as a no decision. He had an 8 inning, 1 run game go as a loss against Johnson and the Marlins.

Johnson, inexplicably only has 10 wins despite a 1.97 ERA and with the distinction of only giving up more than 3 runs twice all year. He has certainly been screwed all year. Wainwright has gotten no help all year getting tagged for 2 losses no pitcher should ever get tagged for and hasn’t been helped out once by the Cardinals in any of his average games. He easily could be 20-2.

Jimenez has one lucky win-loss record at 17-2, despite the highest ERA of the 4 pitchers.

With all that being said, Halladay has definitely deserved about 4 of those losses as he has gotten beat up quite a few times this year giving up at least 5 earned runs, 5 times, but he does lead the NL in IP, SO, CG, and shutouts.

Wild cards are Halladay’s perfect game and Jimenez’s no-hitter.

I think Jimenez would get the writers’ vote, but who should actually get it…I honestly have no clue. Halladay has had the most bad games, although a bunch were against the AL, but teams have hurt him a lot more than Johnson and Wainwright, who have had almost no bad games between them.

Maybe someone with a more sabermetric understanding of the game could help me decide between those 3.

Who do you all have?

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For Cy Youngs I'd go Josh Johnson and Cliff Lee.

Devilsrule - from a sabermetric standpoint, for the NL, it would be Johnson, Halladay, and Jimenez - in that order, in terms of WAR.

It is worth mentioning though that Francisco Liriano leads all of baseball with a 2.19 FIP, so he'd absolutely have to be in the discussion too if sabermetrics were more thought of instead of W-L records/ERA.

Edited by nmigliore
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