Official 2012 New York Mets Thread

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Congratulations to David Wright, the new Mets' all-time hit leader!

Good for him, but hopefully it doesn't lead to nostalgic feelings in the Mets' front office.

Funny, though Ike has clearly improved, he's been firmly stuck in the .220s since August 20th. He's been no lower than .220 and no higher than .227. As we've seen, he's been getting on base during that time at about a .365 clip (21 BB and 28 K), which helps to offset the low batting avg somewhat, but hopefully over the course of a full season (next year) he'll hit for at least a .260 average...though some subscribe to the "a walk is as good as a hit" mantra, and getting on base is important, I don't agree with it entirely...walks don't drive in runs unless the bases are loaded, and don't advance runners unless a runner is already at first.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

And hopefully that's the last time McHugh puts on a Mets uniform. Aside from his 1st start against a AAA lineup...he's been pure garbage

I don't think he figures heavily into the Mets' plans. The rotation is pretty well set for next year, as long as the projected five stay healthy. I can't see guys like Hefner and McHugh being able to outperform the guys who will be in the rotation next season, even though Santana is obviously a huge question mark.

['7']

Ike clubs #31. Great turnaround...and of course we had that stupid article come out 2 weeks ago about the mets possibly contemplating trading him because he stays out too late at night? Idiots.

God damn, what a home run robbing catch. We could really use that run right now

Rally for RA!

[nmigliore]

BOOM David Wright! Mets lead, 6-3!

Edited September 27, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Ike clubs #31. Great turnaround...and of course we had that stupid article come out 2 weeks ago about the mets possibly contemplating trading him because he stays out too late at night? Idiots.

God damn, what a home run robbing catch. We could really use that run right now

Rally for RA!

Rally indeed. 10 more Ks for RA too...even if he never has a year like this again, not a lot of pitchers who can say they had a year like this one. He can always look back fondly on it.

Nice HR David, but you're not foolin' anyone with this "fatten up my numbers before the season ends" run.

[nmigliore]

LOL Dickey enduced one of the ugliest swings of the year on a strikeout of Jones.... with a change up. Give the man his Cy Young award, please.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

LOL Dickey enduced one of the ugliest swings of the year on a strikeout of Jones.... with a change up. Give the man his Cy Young award, please.

I really hope so nmig...that the voters vote correctly. IT'S FOR THE BEST PITCHER IN THE LEAGUE. It's not an MVP, and he shouldn't be penalized because his team blew in the second half. But I have a feeling he'll lose points for 1) his team not being in a race the 2nd half of the season, and 2) being a "gimmick" pitcher (also not fair). But like I said, he's been the best and most consistent starting pitcher this season...he should win the Cy.

['7']

good for RA!!

does he get another start?

[nmigliore]

DICKEY WINS!!!!!

#RA4CY

[NJDevs4978]

good for RA!!

does he get another start?

If he hadn't won today he was slotted for the last game of the season but since he went 130+ pitches today and got the 20th win they might just let him go home at this point.

I'm glad the fans finally got a couple of good nights to end the season between Wright getting the hits record and RA's 20th win. They deserve it after 4-25

Edited September 27, 2012 by NJDevs4978

['7']

yea somehow this team won double digits at home in the 2nd half.

['7']

It's moments like that that make me believe in Duda

They flashed his stats on the screen....with 2 outs and RISP. Duda is right around .360. And he cranks a home run tonight. Is it a real "big spot?" well clearly we're not in a pennant race...but the crowd was roaring and facing a very good pitcher who was cruising, Duda put in a great AB.

[nmigliore]

Duda has a better bat than he showed this year. Problem is he's a huge negative in the outfield and a plodder on the bases; he'd have to hit like vintage Adam Dunn to be good. I think he ends up being traded this winter to an AL team, where he belongs.

Great effort, as usual, from Jon Niese: 7 innings, 1 run. Great way to end what was a promising year for him. He's not going to be an ace but he looks very much like an above average, #3-type starter. If he can stay healthy his contract will be a nice bargain.

Edited September 29, 2012 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Easy 1-2-3 inning for Parnell to close it out. Mets win.

At least they aren't going down on a sour note; they've won 7 of their last 8.

Edited September 29, 2012 by nmigliore

['7']

all the air went out of the braves after that Duda HR

[NJDevs4978]

Easy 1-2-3 inning for Parnell to close it out. Mets win.

At least they aren't going down on a sour note; they've won 7 of their last 8.

All seven wins since Collins called them out for quitting

['7']

Well at least their 2nd half record won't look historically bad now

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I did my own projections a month or so ago and came up with about 74 wins:

Looks like you were right on the money. It probably didn't happen exactly as you envisioned it (Dickey winning 20 games; Santana, Gee, and Pelfrey not making it through the season; David Wright having a big first half but struggling in the second half; the Mets being as much as 7 games over .500, etc.), but a win today will give the Mets a record of 74-88.

All I will say about this season is that it had better lead to better things come next year. The Mets are 299-348 the last four seasons...clearly you can be a lot worse, but win totals of 70, 79, 77, and possibly 74 over a four-season period is hard to take. I'm not saying the Mets necessarily HAVE to win a division or wild card berth next season, but they have to at least show they can win more than 80 games and finish a season with a winning record and the chance to be at least relevant come September. It's time to start taking steps forward.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Guess everyone's slinking away quietly around here.

[Devils Pride 26]

Regression.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

God, this is awful news...this contract will be a complete disaster if the Mets sign him:

http://www.nypost.co...dGdKjLOyPOYZtyH

You just KNOW with a deal like this, the Mets will make the colossal mistake of thinking David Wright is a cornerstone player and a leader that you build around, when in reality, he's more of a complimentary player. He has never really shown leadership ability. By year two of this deal he is going to be Whipping Boy #1 around here...he has no chance to live up to this deal (fans are going to expect and hope for 2005-2008 Wright, and wind up getting 2009-2012 Wright, and that will disappoint).

Gord Lord Sandy, did you see Wright last season and the second half of this season? Why are you making bringing him back a no-brainer when it shouldn't be? The guy was damned near INVISIBLE during the second half of this season, when his team needed him most! That was a time he was supposed to be proving his worth, and he did damned near NOTHING! True superstars find a way to do their thing even when their teams are struggling (Dickey isn't a superstar, but notice how he still performed and didn't mail it in)...Wright simply sinks right along with the ship. Since Wright has been here, he's been to the playoffs ONCE! Baseball isn't all about one guy, clearly it's very much a team sport, but teams gain an identity over time. With Wright it's the wrong kind. Wright has had some terrific Met moments, and his overall career numbers are very nice to look at, but sometimes it's simply time to move on, especially when the price tag gets silly.

Edited October 10, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Some news on Wright and what he may be looking for:

In canvassing the officials, the terms that came up most often was about seven years at $127 million. Wright’s buddy, Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman, received a six-year, $100 million extension last spring that when combined with the two remaining seasons left on his old contract was worth $126 million over eight seasons. Thus, Wright would top Zimmerman both in total worth of contract and also average annual value, which would make him second ever among third basemen in both categories to the 10-year, $275 million extension Rodriguez signed with the Yankees.

Also, Wright is due $16 million on a 2013 option. The Mets have until five days after the World Series to trigger that option. If they can finalize the extension before then and add the option, under this scenario, Wright’s total future package would be worth $143 million over eight seasons.

Why is that important? Because it would make Wright the highest-paid Met in history in total package, topping the $137.5 million that Johan Santana received.

The officials said they thought topping Zimmerman and Santana would be benchmarks important to Wright and his representatives.

http://www.nypost.co...DJr5er8HTByQp5K

I don't think I have to tell anyone here this, but Wright's post-June swoon (.765 OPS in 345 PA) has to be at least somewhat concerning, and if you check the splits, it wasn't your typical BABIP regression/slump (chart courtesy of Fangraphs.com):

It's entirely possible Wright is much more like the good-not-great 2009-2011 version than the elite 2005-2008 version, especially entering his age-30 and beyond seasons. It's also hard to put a lot of weight in the out-of-nowhere excellent defensive season, which tacked on about win and a half to his 2012 fWAR.

With all of that said, pretending we ripped up his 2013 option in favor of a new deal, I'd still be okay with giving him something like 6/110 or 7/120 in this market. Including the 2013 option and playing off of the base 7/127 figure (see the article I posted in the beginning of this post), however, the total deal would be around 8/143, which would just be too rich for me, as much I love David Wright. It wouldn't be a gross over-pay, and it could certainly work out to be fair value if Wright's 2012 was less fluky than we may believe, but it just wouldn't be a deal I'd have a lot of confidence in.

The entire subject is just really tough to talk about it because it's hard to evaluate who Wright really is after his wild 2012 season. Even if you told me the defense was a blip but the overall offense (140 wRC+) was real, 8/143 (aka 7/127 + 2013's option) is actually pretty fair. But if that post-June swoon was more indicative of Wright's actual skill and/or his true talent level bat is more in line with 2009-2011 (and on pace to decline, of course), then that deal just isn't going to work.

Considering the state of the franchise, I'd err on the side of caution and not give him a big deal like that, but regardless, I really don't envy being in Sandy's position to make a call here (not to mention he'll surely see backfire from the fans and/or media no matter what call he makes). He could always pick up the option and see what 2013 tells us about who Wright is, but I still feel like that's the worst idea of the three possible choices.

Edited October 27, 2012 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Some notable Mets news again:

http://www.nypost.co...7oTuUzXkzHF7K/1

The Mets were one club that came up regularly as a potential landing spot for Cabrera, as were the outfield-needy Phillies. The Mets need outfielders and don’t have a ton of money to address their severe needs there. So if they could bag Cabrera as corner outfield insurance against Jason Bay and Lucas Duda, it could make sense, especially if they are unable to retain Scott Hairston. Probably at his worst, Cabrera would be a motivated fourth outfielder who always could hit righties well, with the possibility he is more than that if any of the improvements of the past two years are real.

Cabrera is my top realistic free agent target, so this is great to hear. Sherman also wrote that the large majority of the industry sees Cabrera having to take a one-year deal in the $2M-5M range; even if he's much less stellar than 2011-2012 Melky, what a fantastic bargain that could be. I'd be all over it. Considering the likely minimal cost, the very short-term commitment, and our desperate need for outfield help, it's a great fit.

Now for the bad news:

The Mets are desperate to find power at minimal costs this offseason and at no position more than catcher, where their five homers last season were by far the fewest in the majors.

One name to keep an eye on is Miguel Olivo. who is someone they are eyeing this offseason. When the Mets made their priority trade list in July, the Rockies’ Ramon Hernandez was on top for catchers, but Olivo was among the secondary candidates along with Kelly Shoppach, whom they ultimately obtained. But the indications I have received are the Mets are unlikely to retain Shoppach.

I'll spare anybody having to look up Fangraphs or B-Ref and tell you Miguel Olivo is horrible and has been one of the worst position players in baseball over the last couple of years with the Mariners. He also doesn't provide much upside as a platoon/backup; his wRC+ against LHP over the last four seasons is 86. He's going to be 35 next July and is getting worse every year in every facet of the game. I realize our current catching situation isn't pretty, but Miguel Olivo doesn't help, he actually makes it worse. Please stay away from this guy.

Edited October 28, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Some news on Wright and what he may be looking for:

http://www.nypost.co...DJr5er8HTByQp5K

I don't think I have to tell anyone here this, but Wright's post-June swoon (.765 OPS in 345 PA) has to be at least somewhat concerning, and if you check the splits, it wasn't your typical BABIP regression/slump (chart courtesy of Fangraphs.com):

It's entirely possible Wright is much more like the good-not-great 2009-2011 version than the elite 2005-2008 version, especially entering his age-30 and beyond seasons. It's also hard to put a lot of weight in the out-of-nowhere excellent defensive season, which tacked on about win and a half to his 2012 fWAR.

With all of that said, pretending we ripped up his 2013 option in favor of a new deal, I'd still be okay with giving him something like 6/110 or 7/120 in this market. Including the 2013 option and playing off of the base 7/127 figure (see the article I posted in the beginning of this post), however, the total deal would be around 8/143, which would just be too rich for me, as much I love David Wright. It wouldn't be a gross over-pay, and it could certainly work out to be fair value if Wright's 2012 was less fluky than we may believe, but it just wouldn't be a deal I'd have a lot of confidence in.

The entire subject is just really tough to talk about it because it's hard to evaluate who Wright really is after his wild 2012 season. Even if you told me the defense was a blip but the overall offense (140 wRC+) was real, 8/143 (aka 7/127 + 2013's option) is actually pretty fair. But if that post-June swoon was more indicative of Wright's actual skill and/or his true talent level bat is more in line with 2009-2011 (and on pace to decline, of course), then that deal just isn't going to work.

Considering the state of the franchise, I'd err on the side of caution and not give him a big deal like that, but regardless, I really don't envy being in Sandy's position to make a call here (not to mention he'll surely see backfire from the fans and/or media no matter what call he makes). He could always pick up the option and see what 2013 tells us about who Wright is, but I still feel like that's the worst idea of the three possible choices.

I've been discussing Wright's poor 2011 and weak second-half 2012 for several posts now. This isn't exactly breaking news here...you're basically saying the same things that I've been saying for weeks. I don't think any of us needed a chart to tell us Wright had stopped hitting for power and had turned back into a strikeout machine again as the season went on. But the BABIP numbers do show how disconcerting his second half was, in that he wasn't really hitting into bad luck.

If they sign him to the dollars you're talking about, the only thing that can be considered is a dangerous 9-figure gamble, and the Mets aren't in position where they can roll the dice like that and hope for the best. There's nothing to suggest that Wright can become the Wright of 2008 and before again, not after four straight seasons of lesser play. He is not worth anywhere near that dollar amount. Like I've said, this one could blow up big-time for the Mets...if Wright turns in a first half similar to last year's second half, that contract will be become daily fodder on the WFAN...especially since I think there's a fair number of Met fans like me who don't want him back, especially for big money. I think the Mets have already gotten his best...let some other team give him the lifetime achievement contract, for diminished returns.

I'm hoping Sandy trades him...I'd be plenty happy with that. If he re-signs him for huge money, I'll be furious. I can live with him picking up the option, because at least there's a chance he may turn in a first half good enough where a contender shows interest and might give up a decent prospect, but my first choice is definitely seeing Sandy move him.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

I've been discussing Wright's poor 2011 and weak second-half 2012 for several posts now. This isn't exactly breaking news here....

I'm just putting in my input on Wright and his future with the team, which I believe you asked about weeks ago. I figured it would be a good time to bring it up now with the World Series finishing out and this Sherman article out.

Edited October 29, 2012 by nmigliore