Jerrydevil Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 Kovalchuk might get traded before the deadline and will be looking for a fat contract in the off-season. It is my contention that the team paying him $8 million or more per year for many years will hurt their franchise. He's clearly an amazing talent but he has never been a plus player. NOT ONCE. Before you say that Atlanta's level of talent, especially between the pipes and on the blue line, has been piss poor during Ilya's career, I point out that Marian Hossa was in the plus-15 range for two of his seasons in Atlanta. They are of a similar caliber of offensive player, I think most of us can agree on that (during one of their seasons together, they scored almost the same number of goals). This is not slam-dunk evidence that Kovalchuk is not worth $8 million, but it's pretty compelling. Is he too much of a defensive liability to pay him $8 million? I think so. I wouldn't pay him more than $5 million, not that the Devils could or would sign him. But some team will be seduced by his talent and will be very sorry unless Kovalchuk becomes a better defensive player. Not Ron Francis better, but better than the long-shifting, loafing player he often is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pattyelias Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 Gaborik's contract should be his goal. If he really is looking for $10-11 million, it's pretty clear that he doesn't care at all about winning and money is everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerrydevil Posted December 23, 2009 Author Share Posted December 23, 2009 (edited) Gaborik's contract should be his goal. If he really is looking for $10-11 million, it's pretty clear that he doesn't care at all about winning and money is everything. Oh, without a doubt. But is he even worth Gaborik dollars? How does he not even have one plus season? I'm asking should GMs heavily weigh his defensive liabilities? Edited December 23, 2009 by Jerrydevil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 Oh, without a doubt. But is he even worth Gaborik dollars? How does he not even have one plus season? I'm asking should GMs heavily weigh his defensive liabilities? don't forget that hossa killed penalties in atlanta, while kovalchuk played 2 minutes on the power play. what this means is that the time which kovalchuk could be a minus player are increased, while hossa's are decreased. if i had the cap room and knew the cap was going to go up, i think he's worth $10 million or so. i know i'm going to get called crazy for that, but kovalchuk is a superb talent who is basically a lock for 40 goals every year and if things go well, he can score 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devs4LIFE Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 I think Kovalchuk relies on his talent too much and has a poor work ethic which in my books makes his value decrease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 It's hard to say, but he seems to have elevated his overall game a bit since being named captain. And obviously his +/- hasn't benefitted from the team around him. That being said, he's of course not a great two-way player, and giving him the max salary would essentially mean your team is fvcked as far as Cup aspirations go. I'd give him 7-7.5 tops, given that he continues to play as he's done this year. Paying someone more than that gives you serious troubles with the cap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerrydevil Posted December 23, 2009 Author Share Posted December 23, 2009 don't forget that hossa killed penalties in atlanta, while kovalchuk played 2 minutes on the power play. what this means is that the time which kovalchuk could be a minus player are increased, while hossa's are decreased. I'm not sure how big a factor that is. It probably means something, but how much a something? Let me ask you this: If you pay a guy $10 million, can you realistically hold him accountable for his defensive play? I think that's a tall order. Can a good team withstand his bad defensive play? I wonder. I wonder how or if he is coached in Atlanta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestevens Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 Look at it this way, how much is he worth to Atlanta and with the salary cap, upcoming players, etc. Let's take a quick look. This season they have about 8.495 in cap space. Thankfully, Brian Campbell did not accept a contract years back when they offered him somewhere in the ballpark of 8 mil a season. In addition to nearly 8.5 million in space, they have Kovalchuk - 6.4, Kozlov - 3.85, Armstrong - 2.4, Reasoner - 1.15, Slater - .84, Afinogenov - .8, Boulton - .6, Kubina - 5, Popolvc - .6, Schubert - .6, Lehtonen - 3.0, Pavelec - 1.43, Hedberg - 1.087, who are all upcoming UFA and RFAs. If my math is right, that is roughly 36.25 million to in cap space. Realistically, Kovalchuk is worth a lot more to Atlanta than anyone else and if he wants 10 million, he basically will get it. Consistent 40 goal scorers, who can get up to 60, are hard to come by and Kovalchuk can bank that in. Doing so, for Atlanta, will not ruin their salary cap situation as well. If he capped 10 million, that leaves 26.25 left to resign players and free agents. I expect Kozlov to either retire or take a salary cut in his next contract as well as Kubina doing the same. Armstrong should be averaging about what he has more - deserves less I think - but may make 2.5 on the top end. While if they want to retain Afinogenov (which I believe they may) he won't cost more than 3 or 4 million a season, possibly even less. Kubina should be taking less than 5.0. While Little may get upwards of several million, I do not think it is a concern of the Thrashers to pay Kovalchuk. A lot of players may get paydays, pay cuts and they may get close to the cap but they can ultimately afford Kovalchuk's ransom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerrydevil Posted December 23, 2009 Author Share Posted December 23, 2009 Steve, but can you win a Cup paying Kovalchuk $10 million? I don't think you can if you pay him $7 million unless he stops becoming a joke defensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 Steve, but can you win a Cup paying Kovalchuk $10 million? I don't think you can if you pay him $7 million unless he stops becoming a joke defensively. it's hard to say since kovalchuk has 4 career playoff games. my basic point is that elite players are unilaterally underpaid in the NHL. pavel bure wasn't exactly selke material but his team went to a cup final. it's just a question of, can kovalchuk be a dominant, goal every other game sort of presence in the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalfro44 Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 The +/- argument about Hossa and Kovalchuck while one is on the kill and the other is on the PP is moot. No one is given +/- in special team situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 The +/- argument about Hossa and Kovalchuck while one is on the kill and the other is on the PP is moot. No one is given +/- in special team situations. Not true. Hossa is a dangerous player shorthanded. The Thrashers powerplay can be a liability defensively. Hossa had 7 SHG in 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 23, 2009 Share Posted December 23, 2009 The +/- argument about Hossa and Kovalchuck while one is on the kill and the other is on the PP is moot. No one is given +/- in special team situations. except that this is incorrect. players are given a + for short handed goals, and a minus for short handed goals against. so take e.g. 2007, the thrashers had 10 SHG against. kovalchuk was probably on the ice for at least 6 of those, probably more, while hossa was likely on for less. furthermore, hossa had 4 short handed points, so that's an automatic +4. it obviously doesn't explain the discrepancy - hossa is a better defensive player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestevens Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 Steve, but can you win a Cup paying Kovalchuk $10 million? I don't think you can if you pay him $7 million unless he stops becoming a joke defensively. Aside from the Thrasers, can any team win a cup with a 10 million dollar player? I dont know. There has to be luck involved, for example last years Washington Capitals team came very close to possibly making a shot at the cup with Ovechkin, cap hit 9.538. A team with a player with that sort of pay needs to have high class younger players, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Varlamov, who don't destroy the teams cap hit. Teams that do win the cup with that sort of talent do have a degree of luck. For example, last year I believe the Penguins were able to jump to the cup a bit easier because they had a great deal of veteran presence, only one players above 5 million dollars as well, Crosby. This year with Malkin making as much as him, the talent pool of veterans has dropped and there are a lot of plug ins. There still dangerous but who knows for how long, there arent much Guerin's who play at a decent level and only make 2 million. Overall, my main concern for the Thrashers is that they don't really have secondary scoring and another high class player aside from Kovalchuk. They may have something in Little but he is not Malkin level. Peverley may be onto something but not in the same league as any of them. Without Kovalchuk their top players are potentials such as Evander Kane and some good talent - Antropov and Hainsey, but nothing too noteworthy. I don't tink the question is can they win a cup with Kovalchuk but can they make the playoffs. Without him they're not too promising in terms of competing at the moment. They have a good prospect pool but unless they get someone else who really can play at a high level (hopefully at least two) they need to do something. I say sign Kovalchuk because they're not hitting cap hell with him. As much as the arguement is that you cant win a cup with a player like that, you certainly cannot compete without him. The difficult part for Atlanta will be determining if he can be a playoff leader to really make a splash - which I think he can be based on his ability to put the game on his stick and get determined to score a goal. As long as he has guys who can retain the puck and allow him to shoot he is in good company, the second line basically can be a first with him even if he is given subpar team mates. Also, his +/- is a bit skewed, although he is very lazy defensively I don't think he is as bad as most people think he is. As mentioned, the +/- for the special teams is in question but as well I want to mention I do believe he is coached to not play defense. Given the olympics are coming up he may be told differently (may not) so it is an opportunity to see what is going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sundstrom Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 triumph is always fond of pointing out that expensive players hitting UFA often have the best chance to make the most with their own clubs. after all, they already have at least 60% of their cap already allocated to that player in the first place. kovalchuk isn't getting $10MM from anyone. i think he gets an $8MM cap hit for something like 7-10 years. with that in mind, it really just costs Atlanta a $2MM player - not something terribly difficult to replace with a decent vet or rookie with a <$1MM salary. atlanta has done all it can to appease kovalchuk surrounding him with russian compatriots and essentially giving the team to him. could Toronto woo him with $8MM/year? certainly. maybe the kings too if they can fob off handzus and decide not to resign frolov. colorado and st. louis are also sleepers but any other team with space is a similar situation to atlanta - questionable footing with no guarantee of team success. why does kovalchuk go to a team like columbus, florida, Islanders or minnesotta? it's essentially more of the same but with a new team instead of the one that for all intents and purposes is his. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HellOnICE Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 I agree with Sundstrom here. If you are going to build around the guy, and by all means, he's definitely someone to build around offensively...than 8M is the cap hit number. Personally, I think there may be 5 forwards in the league who are worth that much...one of the reasons being they can only play 22 minutes tops/game. Also, I don't think Kovalchuk is worth 8M to 29 other teams. However, to Atlanta, he's worth that much money because the team is built around him..for better (or I think worse). If Waddell had kept Hossa and traded Kovalchuk years back, this team is much different that it is now, likelihood much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 If Kovalchuk wants $10M a season, he's going to get $10M a season. It's just a question of who, in which league, on which continent. I don't think he's remotely on Ovechkin's level. maybe it's because Ovechkin is reckless and over-competitive, he stands out more, but I don't think so. it's cherrypicking one game, but his effort against us was ghastly. he got walled off by Zajac like he was a little kid and got stripped and embarassed by Dean freaking McAmmond. I say if he's intent on getting paid, he's not in the NHL next season, unless some GM loses their mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prucenterrules Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 It wouldn't surprize me if the rags trade gaborik and sign kovalchuk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 If Kovalchuk wants $10M a season, he's going to get $10M a season. It's just a question of who, in which league, on which continent. I don't think he's remotely on Ovechkin's level. maybe it's because Ovechkin is reckless and over-competitive, he stands out more, but I don't think so. it's cherrypicking one game, but his effort against us was ghastly. he got walled off by Zajac like he was a little kid and got stripped and embarassed by Dean freaking McAmmond. I say if he's intent on getting paid, he's not in the NHL next season, unless some GM loses their mind. kovalchuk obviously takes more shifts and games off than ovechkin, i don't think anyone would dispute that. alternately, he's just a stupendous talent who would be looked at as the best pure scorer in the game if it weren't for ovechkin. anyway - my argument is that ovechkin, crosby, etc. are all clearly worth more than their salaries, and i wouldn't even be surprised if someone like ovechkin's worth wasn't even covered by a max contract. kovalchuk is still worth $10M - it's just that every team has on its ledger a few terrible contracts. pittsburgh could afford crosby and malkin at 10MM each with minimal loss to the current roster. i don't think LA or toronto go after kovalchuk - toronto already has kessel and LA isn't going to bring along that kind of risk. i'd be mostly surprised if anyone in the NHL got him besides atlanta - the salary cap is just too great an impediment. in an upswinging economy and salary cap situation, you'd see a lot more suitors, but while kovalchuk is an outstanding player, he is unique, and teams with a player like him really don't need another one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestevens Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 I think he is worth 10 million to Atlanta, but won't get it. More around 8.5 sounds right. HellOnIce- They traded Hossa and kept Kovalchuk not out of necessity but Hossa was not going to resign with the Thrashers. Kovalchuk was on a contract and signed an extension, can't build around a player not on the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek21 Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 (edited) It wouldn't surprize me if the rags trade gaborik and sign kovalchuk. Not a chance. The Great Gabby is a better player. The risk is always health but we're all day to day. So far, so good. Otherwise, they'd be dead last. The more likely scenario is they somehow free enough room to add Kovalchuk next summer. Right now, they lack scorers. If a few of our prospects (Grachev, Stepan, Bourque, Hagelin) pan out, that could change. Count me in the Jerry/Tri corner on Kovy. He is a superstar who can flat out snipe. A lethal PP threat. But he doesn't kill penalties and takes shifts off. Perfect example was the lazy effort on McAmmond's winner. He didn't even try and it cost his team. That's their captain. Unacceptable. Atlanta is building something, adding some of his comrades and a blueline that features Bogosian and Enstrom. I love Peverley. What a gem (waivers-Nsh). Here's the big question. With the two sides far apart, will they risk it to make the playoffs? Those gates mean a lot. Retaining Kovy is huge for their fanbase. Unless they get a great return and by that, I mean good young NHLer, elite prospect, 1st rd pick, it makes the decision easier to swallow. They can't afford to screw this up. Edited December 24, 2009 by Derek21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devs4LIFE Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 I think the smartest thing for Atlanta to do is trade Kovy and try to get back some players that would make them a more complete team i.e. first line center and a top four defenseman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prucenterrules Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 I think the smartest thing for Atlanta to do is trade Kovy and try to get back some players that would make them a more complete team i.e. first line center and a top four defenseman. They need a name like kovalchuk to keep fans coming to their games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerrydevil Posted December 24, 2009 Author Share Posted December 24, 2009 They need a name like kovalchuk to keep fans coming to their games. They'd do better at the gate with a winning team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 24, 2009 Share Posted December 24, 2009 They'd do better at the gate with a winning team. without kovalchuk they're not going to have one. that hossa deal really worked out, huh? and that's pretty much the most they can expect to get for kovalchuk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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