HF Updated Top 20 Devils Prospects

[Devils731]

The difference is that players who make the NHL at 18 are almost unilaterally NHL players. There are 31 players who've made the NHL at 18 and played 10 or more games since 95-96 (aka the modern era) - 3 of them (Fata, A. Berg, Fritsche) were not successful NHLers.

Most players who make the NHL at 22 or later are fringe NHLers. There are some that aren't, and certainly there are also late-bloomers who come over from Europe like Damian Brunner, but drafted players who take that long? I don't expect much from them.

If you have them on hand, how many of the 18 years old played under 20 games? How many had a scoring pace under 15 points? How many who played juniors had a scoring rate of under 0.81 points per game?

The point kind of being, we don't need to use generalities with Matteau or Urbom. We can see their specific cases.

The other day you claimed Tatar on Detroit is a good prospect but now claim Urbom likely isn't, due to age. In both cases the players were likely blocked by the NHL team not having spots open, not through their own lack of ability.

Matteau played 17 games this year as an 18 year old. I watched all those games. In the vast majority of them he played a nothing role and had little impact. I don't think that says much about his NHL future one way or another as most forwards drafted could play a nothing role and have little impact.

[Derlique]

If you have them on hand, how many of the 18 years old played under 20 games? How many had a scoring pace under 15 points? How many who played juniors had a scoring rate of under 0.81 points per game?

The point kind of being, we don't need to use generalities with Matteau or Urbom. We can see their specific cases.

The other day you claimed Tatar on Detroit is a good prospect but now claim Urbom likely isn't, due to age. In both cases the players were likely blocked by the NHL team not having spots open, not through their own lack of ability.

Matteau played 17 games this year as an 18 year old. I watched all those games. In the vast majority of them he played a nothing role and had little impact. I don't think that says much about his NHL future one way or another as most forwards drafted could play a nothing role and have little impact.

He played with subpar players besides a few games with Kovy. He got chances, showed willingness to bang bodies and had some flashes. That pass to Loktionov exhibited some serious skills and smarts Edited May 23, 2013 by SMantzas

[Devils731]

Matteau made the team over Bobby Butler, and he beat out Mathieu Darche for an NHL spot.  These aren't the greatest players to ever play the game, but they're NHL level players and the Devils judged that Matteau was better.  

 

Perhaps the Devils judged wrong though?  Butler played 34 NHL games this season and had 4 goals and 7 assists and Darche, without being there, would seem like he likely would have been a better NHL than both last season.  The Devils eventually judged Matteau not a NHL player last season.

[Devils731]

Like Tri said, if you're not in the league by 22, you're probably going to be a tweener. I get organizational strengths, but Urbom is probably not going to be anything more than a bottom pairing dman.

 

I don't think we can use the same age cut off for all prospects, I don't have the number,s nor do I know where to find them or I'd look, but I would suspect NHL defenseman do emerge at a later date than forwards.  The Devils fielded a few guys who are good NHL defenseman who debuted at 22 or older.

[Triumph]

Tatar is a good prospect but again this is iceberg-spotting - we have his numbers.  We don't have that with Urbom, it's just a guess. He played one game this year and didn't look good at all, but that's one game.  When D don't put up numbers (and aren't breaking down the door to the NHL), it's just guesswork, but usually he doesn't turn out that good.

[Triumph]

Perhaps the Devils judged wrong though?  Butler played 34 NHL games this season and had 4 goals and 7 assists and Darche, without being there, would seem like he likely would have been a better NHL than both last season.  The Devils eventually judged Matteau not a NHL player last season.

 

I'm not sure that this is what happened or if they decided he'd be better served in junior.  Matteau's shot rate was very good and he did some nice things, but once the Devils started to acquire depth forwards he was rightfully squeezed out.

[Devils731]

Tatar is a good prospect but again this is iceberg-spotting - we have his numbers.  We don't have that with Urbom, it's just a guess. He played one game this year and didn't look good at all, but that's one game.  When D don't put up numbers (and aren't breaking down the door to the NHL), it's just guesswork, but usually he doesn't turn out that good.

 

It feels a bit like cherry picking to say 

 

"Most players who make the NHL at 22 or later are fringe NHLers. There are some that aren't, and certainly there are also late-bloomers who come over from Europe like Damian Brunner, but drafted players who take that long? I don't expect much from them."

 

and then argue that a certain guy is the exception because he has put up good AHL numbers.  

 

If the argument is by age, then Tatar falls into that same category and the numbers are moot because we aren't examining the specific prospects or situations, we're just making a blanket argument that players who don't make the NHL by 22 are unlikely to be good.  Especially when one is a forward and one is a defenseman, which I'm still assuming the former has an easier time cracking NHL rosters.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Devils731

[Triumph]

It feels a bit like cherry picking to say 

 

"Most players who make the NHL at 22 or later are fringe NHLers. There are some that aren't, and certainly there are also late-bloomers who come over from Europe like Damian Brunner, but drafted players who take that long? I don't expect much from them."

 

and then argue that a certain guy is the exception because he has put up good AHL numbers.  

 

If the argument is by age, then Tatar falls into that same category and the numbers are moot because we aren't examining the specific prospects or situations, we're just making a blanket argument that players who don't make the NHL by 22 are unlikely to be good.  Especially when one is a forward and one is a defenseman, which I'm still assuming the former has an easier time cracking NHL rosters.

 

That's why the word 'most' is in there.  You have to go on a case by case basis, and obviously players make large unpredictable jumps at the NHL level (david clarkson, e.g.).  

 

Tatar got into 18 NHL games and put up good numbers, strengthening his case.  Urbom didn't get the chance to do so, but it is hard to judge either way.

[Daniel]

He played with subpar players besides a few games with Kovy. He got chances, showed willingness to bang bodies and had some flashes. That pass to Loktionov exhibited some serious skills and smarts

 

Kind of like this:

 

[Triumph]

Not really like that at all.  The NHL is not a stickhandling league.

[Daniel]

Not really like that at all.  The NHL is not a stickhandling league.

 

The point is, is that you can't judge a player based on a nice play he made as a rookie.

[Triumph]

It's not that the play was successful from Matteau, but he's billed as a shoot-first forward and most guys with his profile would turn around and put a low percentage shot on net.