NJ's Drafts: Before And After, 2000-10

[Triumph]

Everyone here talks about the issues the Devils have had with drafting, and at first glance it's hard to blame them.  The Devils simply don't have an impact forward under 25 in their system.  They've got Henrique, who is a good player, and Boucher, who I think will be a good player, and a mix of guys who've got some NHL potential.  Still, none of these players are the kind that win championships - they're the guys that add to the guys that win championships.

 

What we also know is that the Devils have usually drafted late.  They have picked late in the first round or not at all, because in this decade they were one of the winningest teams in hockey, and they were shoring up their team with some of their first round picks.  So I decided to look at the best 7 forwards drafted before NJ got their chance to pick, who NJ picked, and the best 7 forwards drafted after NJ picked.  It's to make it clear just how stark the difference is.

 

2000:  

Heatley

Gaborik

Hartnell

Frolov

Torres

Marcel Hossa

Kolanos

 

Devils draft D David Hale 21st overall

 

After:  

Boyes

Ju. Williams

Vermette

Stoll

D. Moore

Lombardi

Gaustad

 

Comments:  What a brutal year for forwards - the only true top liners were Heatley and Gaborik, with Williams and Hartnell being fringe top liners.

 

2001:  

Kovalchuk

Spezza

Weiss

M. Koivu

Hemsky

T. Ruutu

Umberger

 

Devils draft C Adrian Foster 28th overall

 

After:  

D. Roy

Cammalleri

Pominville

Plekanec

Sharp

J. Jokinen

Clowe

 

Comments:  This is a year where the forwards taken after can hang with the forwards drafted before - my belief that Kovalchuk isn't all he's cracked up to be is well-documented on this board, Spezza's kinda the same.  Roy was taken only a few picks after Foster - he was a top 30 center while playing for some mediocre Buffalo teams

 

2002:  

R. Nash

Lupul

P. Bouchard

Semin

A. Steen

C. Higgins

Stoll

 

Devils draft D Anton Kadeykin 51st overall

 

After:  

Stajan

Hudler

Fleischmann

Lombardi

Filppula

F. Nielsen

G. Campbell

 

Comments:  Nash and Semin are top line forwards, Lupul has scored a bunch despite being rotten defensively.  Hudler, Filppula, and Nielsen are fine forwards, but I'm taking those top 7 over the bottom 7.

 

2003:  

E. Staal

Horton

Vanek

M. Michalek

J. Carter

D. Brown

Zherdev

 

Devils draft LW/C Zach Parise 17th overall

 

After:  

Getzlaf

Kesler

M. Richards

Perry

L. Eriksson

P. Bergeron

Pavelski

 

Comments:  What an amazing draft.  I believe all 7 players taken after Parise played for their country's team at the Olympics at some point.  Obviously the Devils got one of the best players, if not the best player, out of this draft.

 

2004:  

Ovechkin

Malkin

Ladd

Wheeler

Stafford

Radulov

Korpikoski

 

Devils draft C Travis Zajac 20th overall

 

After:  

Bolland

Grabovski

Brouwer

Dubinsky

Krejci

Franzen

Callahan

 

Comments:  I think Zajac is probably the 2nd best forward left in this draft when NJ took him.  There's some good players in this draft even so.  Franzen's the last ultra overager forward taken, thankfully. 

 

2005:  

Crosby

B. Ryan

Kopitar

Hanzal

Setoguchi

B. Pouliot

Skille

 

NJ drafts Nicklas Bergfors 23rd overall

 

After:  

Oshie

Neal

Pa. Stastny

Raymond

Hornqvist

Helm

S. Kostitsyn

 

Comments:  Neal is a star, Stastny is real good, Hornqvist is really good, but there's not a ton here, either up top or in the lower area.

 

2006:

Jo. Staal

Toews

Backstrom

Kessel

Okposo

Giroux

Little

 

Devils draft D Matt Corrente 30th overall

 

After:  

Lucic

Anisimov

Kulemin

Marchand

M. Perreault

Clutterbuck

Stalberg

 

Comments:  This one puts into stark relief just how hard it is to draft low sometimes.  The top 7 forwards taken before NJ drafted are all stars or borderline stars.  I had to exclude Brassard and Patrik Berglund who are good players too.  Meanwhile Marchand and Lucic are very good players but the rest of the guys are no one's idea of difference makers.

 

2007:  

P. Kane

J. Van Riemsdyk

Turris

Voracek

Couture

Pacioretty

Perron

 

Devils draft LW Mike Hoeffel 57th overall

 

After:  

Simmonds

Killorn

Ja. Benn

Hagelin

Bonino

Dw. King

Halischuk

 

Comments:  Again, pretty much all the good forwards are gone.  Jamie Benn is a star, Simmonds is a good player, but the rest are pure complements.

 

2008:  

Stamkos

Wilson

Eberle

Jo. Bailey

Boedker

Hodgson

Colborne

 

Devils draft LW Mattias Tedenby 24th overall

 

After:  

Ennis

Stepan

Henrique

Nyquist

Atkinson

Wingels

Calvert

 

Comments:  Hey, a forward NJ drafted shows up here!  And indeed, this top group isn't great.

 

2009:  

Tavares

E. Kane

Duchene

B. Schenn

Kadri

Kreider

Holland

 

NJ drafts Jacob Josefson 20th overall.

 

After:  

M. Johansson

K. Palmieri

R. O’Reilly

Silfverberg

Tatar

R. Smith

C. Smith

 

Comments:  We're getting to the point where these are hard to evaluate because it's hard to say what people like Palmieri and Reilly Smith are.

 

2010:  

T. Hall

Seguin

Skinner

Mi. Granlund

Schwartz

Tarasenko

B. Nelson

 

Devils draft D Jon Merrill 38th overall

 

After:  

Toffoli

Gallagher

Pulkinnen

Zucker

Smith-Pelly

M. Stone

Jarnkrok

 

Comments:  This doesn't look like a great group of forwards either taken after Merrill.  I think they're all NHLers but none are stars.  We'll see.  Those top 7, 3 are special already, Skinner and Granlund look great, and Nelson is having a heck of a season now too.

Edited January 1, 2015 by Triumph

[EdgeControl]

this is exactly why losing is important, when you have the option to

[William D'Aquila]

Reality check for the Lou haters.

[coldply123]

Reality check for the Lou haters.

Lou has very little direct handiwork over the draft. David Conte is the director of scouting.

[DevilMinder]

remind me to put this in the FAQ area when it dies down.

[Derek21]

I think what it shows is that you can still find quality players late. Dubinsky and Callahan are good examples. They were key building blocks and eventually were turned into Nash and St. Louis even though Slats overpaid in picks. Anisimov was also in the Nash deal. 

 

Tri, what is your take on the Staals? My Dad's always believed they are overhyped due to name. I do agree that they're not as good as they're made out to be. But two have won Cups with Eric leading the Canes and Jordan an integral part of the Pens. Ranger fans are split on Marc. Some feel he's good but not worth his next contract (6 for 36). Others feel they must re-sign him due to the blueline situation. No ready prospects (McIlrath failure, Skjei still in school). I wouldn't go that high on Marc. But he becomes hard to replace. As for the other two, Eric is a shell of himself and Jordan can't stay healthy. 

[Louismydad]

I think what it shows is that you can still find quality players late. Dubinsky and Callahan are good examples. They were key building blocks and eventually were turned into Nash and St. Louis even though Slats overpaid in picks. Anisimov was also in the Nash deal.

Tri, what is your take on the Staals? My Dad's always believed they are overhyped due to name. I do agree that they're not as good as they're made out to be. But two have won Cups with Eric leading the Canes and Jordan an integral part of the Pens. Ranger fans are split on Marc. Some feel he's good but not worth his next contract (6 for 36). Others feel they must re-sign him due to the blueline situation. No ready prospects (McIlrath failure, Skjei still in school). I wouldn't go that high on Marc. But he becomes hard to replace. As for the other two, Eric is a shell of himself and Jordan can't stay healthy.

you didn't ask my opinion but I would like to chime in. I think the Staals are very talented, but they all have health issues and have since become worse than they were. If they were able to stay healthy they would all be stars

[William D'Aquila]

Lou has very little direct handiwork over the draft. David Conte is the director of scouting.

 

Well aware.

[Louismydad]

I think what it shows is that you can still find quality players late. Dubinsky and Callahan are good examples. They were key building blocks and eventually were turned into Nash and St. Louis even though Slats overpaid in picks. Anisimov was also in the Nash deal.

Tri, what is your take on the Staals? My Dad's always believed they are overhyped due to name. I do agree that they're not as good as they're made out to be. But two have won Cups with Eric leading the Canes and Jordan an integral part of the Pens. Ranger fans are split on Marc. Some feel he's good but not worth his next contract (6 for 36). Others feel they must re-sign him due to the blueline situation. No ready prospects (McIlrath failure, Skjei still in school). I wouldn't go that high on Marc. But he becomes hard to replace. As for the other two, Eric is a shell of himself and Jordan can't stay healthy.

you didn't ask my opinion but I would like to chime in. I think the Staals are very talented, but they all have health issues and have since become worse than they were. If they were able to stay healthy they would all be stars

I think what it shows is that you can still find quality players late. Dubinsky and Callahan are good examples. They were key building blocks and eventually were turned into Nash and St. Louis even though Slats overpaid in picks. Anisimov was also in the Nash deal.

Tri, what is your take on the Staals? My Dad's always believed they are overhyped due to name. I do agree that they're not as good as they're made out to be. But two have won Cups with Eric leading the Canes and Jordan an integral part of the Pens. Ranger fans are split on Marc. Some feel he's good but not worth his next contract (6 for 36). Others feel they must re-sign him due to the blueline situation. No ready prospects (McIlrath failure, Skjei still in school). I wouldn't go that high on Marc. But he becomes hard to replace. As for the other two, Eric is a shell of himself and Jordan can't stay healthy.

you didn't ask my opinion but I would like to chime in. I think the Staals are very talented, but they all have health issues and have since become worse than they were. If they were able to stay healthy they would all be stars

[Triumph]

Lou has very little direct handiwork over the draft. David Conte is the director of scouting.

 

Lou traded away the 1st round picks in 2002, 2007, and 2010.  He also traded up in 2003, 2004, and 2009, and traded down in 2001, 2006 and 2008.  In short, he's impacted the Devils' draft in 9 of the 11 years that I looked at.

[mfitz804]

Hindsight being 20/20, there's at least one player I'd take over who the Devils drafted in at least half of those drafts.

[NewarkDevil5]

Lou traded away the 1st round picks in 2002, 2007, and 2010.  He also traded up in 2003, 2004, and 2009, and traded down in 2001, 2006 and 2008.  In short, he's impacted the Devils' draft in 9 of the 11 years that I looked at.

 

This is kinda key information that you're putting in at the tail end over here. Of the three drafts in which we traded up we did extremely well with one, moderately well with another and poorly with another. In 2006 we traded down and got Matt Corrente while the rest of the league was enjoying one of the deepest forward drafts you've mentioned. In 2001 we traded down and grabbed Foster while guys like Cammalleri and Sharp were on the board. I know you're posting this to try and convince us that our drafting hasn't been as bad as we the ungrateful fans have made out, but really this is illustrating the opposite to me.

[Triumph]

This is kinda key information that you're putting in at the tail end over here. Of the three drafts in which we traded up we did extremely well with one, moderately well with another and poorly with another. In 2006 we traded down and got Matt Corrente while the rest of the league was enjoying one of the deepest forward drafts you've mentioned. In 2001 we traded down and grabbed Foster while guys like Cammalleri and Sharp were on the board. I know you're posting this to try and convince us that our drafting hasn't been as bad as we the ungrateful fans have made out, but really this is illustrating the opposite to me.

 

That's because you are not seeing the giant penumbra of forwards taken who were not any good who were also drafted.  Remember, NJ's first pick averaged being around 35th-40th.  So figuring that forwards/D/goalies are taken in equal proportion to how they are on NHL rosters, there's going to be something like 80-90 forwards drafted after.  I pulled out the 7 best ones.  In several drafts, the 7th best forward was an average NHLer or thereabouts.  So that leaves between 70-85 guys who were worse - most draft years the guys left off the list had a minor to no impact on their NHL team.  

 

The Devils traded down in 2006 from pick 25 - all of those forwards were off the board already.  

 

In short, I think it's fair to expect the Devils to have drafted one more forward that appears on these lists.  I don't think it's fair to expect much more than that.  It's a 30 team league and there's 77 players on these lists - there's a large randomness element to the whole affair.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Triumph

[sundstrom]

if you want to look at something else, who is the only team that has had more success in the NHL than the Devils over the last 20 years? Detroit. And an enormous reason is their drafting. Sure they had top talent like Lidstrom and Yzerman for years who were top picks.

 

But look at the "bottom 7" on your lists:

 

hudler

filpula

franzen

helm

nyquist

tartar

jarnkrok

 

all not 1st round picks and all good. you don't have to suck to get good players. sure it helps, but if you're good at drafting, you're good at drafting. the wings are head and shoulders above anyone else in the NHL. the devils are probably average. pretty solid on finding defensemen in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. pretty bad at forwards after round 1.

 

edit: obviously if you go back further, you'll find zetterberg and datsyuk who were late picks too, but everyone knows about those too.

Edited January 2, 2015 by sundstrom

[Marshall]

if you want to look at something else, who is the only team that has had more success in the NHL than the Devils over the last 20 years? Detroit. And an enormous reason is their drafting. Sure they had top talent like Lidstrom and Yzerman for years who were top picks.

 

 

 

I think they're being supplanted by Tampa now as the top team at drafting. 

[coldply123]

Lou traded away the 1st round picks in 2002, 2007, and 2010. He also traded up in 2003, 2004, and 2009, and traded down in 2001, 2006 and 2008. In short, he's impacted the Devils' draft in 9 of the 11 years that I looked at.

My comment was directed in regards to the evaluation and selection of players. Lou trading away picks is another element. Your post was directed towards the selection of players. Conte has a direct hand in who gets selected. That was my point.

I should have rephrased it perhaps a bit better. Obviously Lou has an impact on where and whether the Devils draft but he has openly admitted he gives Conte wide leeway when it comes to evaluation and selection of guys. Also Lou mentioned that he often trades away up or down based on Conte's input. The Parise year was probably Conte's finest hour IMO.

Edited January 2, 2015 by coldply123

[coldply123]

Lidstrom was not what I would call a top pick. He was 53rd overall his draft year.

[coldply123]

That's because you are not seeing the giant penumbra of forwards taken who were not any good who were also drafted. Remember, NJ's first pick averaged being around 35th-40th. So figuring that forwards/D/goalies are taken in equal proportion to how they are on NHL rosters, there's going to be something like 80-90 forwards drafted after. I pulled out the 7 best ones. In several drafts, the 7th best forward was an average NHLer or thereabouts. So that leaves between 70-85 guys who were worse - most draft years the guys left off the list had a minor to no impact on their NHL team.

The Devils traded down in 2006 from pick 25 - all of those forwards were off the board already.

In short, I think it's fair to expect the Devils to have drafted one more forward that appears on these lists. I don't think it's fair to expect much more than that. It's a 30 team league and there's 77 players on these lists - there's a large randomness element to the whole affair.

I respect what you are trying to say, but all I see is that we could simply do a better job than we've been doing on forwards in terms of finding and developing a few.

[aylbert]

 

 

2006:

Jo. Staal

Toews

Backstrom

Kessel

Okposo

Giroux

Little

 

Devils draft D Matt Corrente 30th overall

 

After:  

Lucic

Anisimov

Kulemin

Marchand

M. Perreault

Clutterbuck

Stalberg

 

Comments:  This one puts into stark relief just how hard it is to draft low sometimes.  The top 7 forwards taken before NJ drafted are all stars or borderline stars.  I had to exclude Brassard and Patrik Berglund who are good players too.  Meanwhile Marchand and Lucic are very good players but the rest of the guys are no one's idea of difference makers.

 

 

We passed on Berglund though; St. Louis traded up to grab him from us.

 

Blues Traded 2006 first round pick (#30-Matthew Corrente), 2006 third round pick (#77-Vladimir Zharkov) to Devils for 2006 first round pick (#25-Patrik Berglund) on 2006-06-24

[DevsMan84]

That 2001 pick looks worse and worse every year for me.  I know Foster was highly touted and would have been a top 10 pick but he was damaged goods because of his major injury before the draft (and eventually the one that pretty much cut his career short).  I can understand why Lou took a chance on him especially when we just came off of back to back Cup finals and had one of, if not the best, offensive corps in the league, but looking at the at least solid players behind him really makes me think that was just a horrible gamble to begin with.  I actually remember watching that draft that year and even the commentators were saying he was taking a huge risk with picking Foster due to his injury (I believe as a result of his body hitting a goal post in a game) and that they were whispers it was a career altering injury.

[Daniel]

That 2001 pick looks worse and worse every year for me. I know Foster was highly touted and would have been a top 10 pick but he was damaged goods because of his major injury before the draft (and eventually the one that pretty much cut his career short). I can understand why Lou took a chance on him especially when we just came off of back to back Cup finals and had one of, if not the best, offensive corps in the league, but looking at the at least solid players behind him really makes me think that was just a horrible gamble to begin with. I actually remember watching that draft that year and even the commentators were saying he was taking a huge risk with picking Foster due to his injury (I believe as a result of his body hitting a goal post in a game) and that they were whispers it was a career altering injury.

The problem with the Foster pick was that you probably could have waited until round 3 or 4 to have drafted him, and I think it was pretty clear at the time he was on no one else's radar that early, or you could take a very safe gamble that he'd be available later. It's either that, or Conte had to have felt some combination that Foster was a legitimate future all star or the early second rounders were not very good, both of which turned out to be false.

Assuming basic competence though, drafting successfully is largely luck, which is why you don't hear me calling for Conte to be fired. That said, the Connor Chatham and Baddock picks I found very troubling, and with a little hindsight the Kujawinski pick. It tells me that Conte is still obsessed with size instead of skill, which leads to passing on players that were clearly more skilled -- Point, DuClair -- on a team that in the short term and long term needs forwards that have a shot at being legitimate scoring threats in the NHL instead of Ryane Clowe clones if we're really, really lucky.

Relatedly, it's why I consider the worst draft pick in recent memory to have been the Rangers taking McIrath at tenth overall, when Fowler and a lot of other good players were still there. For all we know the Rangers might be on the verge of winning the Cup had they gotten that one right. And it's not just the fact that McIlrath may never be a legitimate NHLer. It's that if he turned into what the propaganda said, he'd be a more skilled version of John Scott. It's a bigger embarassment than Jessiman which is saying a lot. Very surprising for a team that has drafted pretty shrewdly over the past seven years or so.

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[Triumph]

Kujawinski is a skill pick.  Please don't use hindsight, it's not applicable in drafts.  All knowledge gained after the draft is out of bounds.

[Daniel]

Kujawinski is a skill pick. Please don't use hindsight, it's not applicable in drafts. All knowledge gained after the draft is out of bounds.

Kujawinski is a big body who was not putting up big points, or at least not compared to other players that were still available like DuClair. I used hindsight in the sense that I as I've seen what the Devils drafted in 2014, it seems that's what Conte was going for at the time as well. It also probably explains a lot about the Matteau pick as well, especially when you listen to an interview he gave where he keeps talking about how big certain players are.

That said, Kujawinski or Matteau for that matter are not picks that I find that upsetting. Kujawinski was at one point touted as a potential first rounder, and Matteau went around where he was supposed to. Chatham is the one that really sticks in my craw.

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[Derlique]

Kujawinski is a big body who was not putting up big points, or at least not compared to other players that were still available like DuClair. I used hindsight in the sense that I as I've seen what the Devils drafted in 2014, it seems that's what Conte was going for at the time as well. It also probably explains a lot about the Matteau pick as well, especially when you listen to an interview he gave where he keeps talking about how big certain players are.

That said, Kujawinski or Matteau for that matter are not picks that I find that upsetting. Kujawinski was at one point touted as a potential first rounder, and Matteau went around where he was supposed to. Chatham is the one that really sticks in my craw.

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I wasn't a fan of the Chatham pick either but he has actually been pretty good this year. Has 19 points in 24, which is a big upgrade from 31 in 54 a season ago.

[Triumph]

Kujawinski is a big body who was not putting up big points, or at least not compared to other players that were still available like DuClair. I used hindsight in the sense that I as I've seen what the Devils drafted in 2014, it seems that's what Conte was going for at the time as well. It also probably explains a lot about the Matteau pick as well, especially when you listen to an interview he gave where he keeps talking about how big certain players are.

That said, Kujawinski or Matteau for that matter are not picks that I find that upsetting. Kujawinski was at one point touted as a potential first rounder, and Matteau went around where he was supposed to. Chatham is the one that really sticks in my craw.

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Duclair played on a better team in a weaker league and put up comparable point numbers.  You're never good at discussing this topic so I will probably just have to cease from talking to you about it.