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2014 UFA Signing Thread


Devilsfan118

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Because you can't read?  You asked a blanket question about how can people question scouts.  You know how I can?  Because the Devils have an absolute garbage record at drafting physical D in the last 15 years.  Basically every pick has been a bust, with some of them graduating to being fringe NHLers.  Do the Devils overvalue physicality?  I don't know, because I don't know their methods, but I would assume yes.

 

Sometimes people lose the whole picture by being too close to it, and scouting is one of the professions where I imagine this happens all the time.  Good scouting departments have to be constantly questioning their assumptions about what makes a good player.  So yeah, I don't know what goes on at the rink in Albany, and I'm not privy to player/scout interviews, but more information can easily be bad when that information misleads or is thought to be important when it isn't.

Is there a good comparative analysis of draft success out there? Specifically, something that would allow one to compare team-by-team success during certain periods, but also to compare same team success across different periods?

The reason I bring this up is that I would argue, just from my subjective POV, that the Devils drafting history of the past 15 years is much worse than just with physical def. Compared to the '90s it is almost as if we have a completely different GM with a completely difficerent scout support system. To me this indicates that something has changed and not for the better. OTOH, I'd like to really see just how much better or worse we are rather than going on my subjective assessment.

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Is there a good comparative analysis of draft success out there? Specifically, something that would allow one to compare team-by-team success during certain periods, but also to compare same team success across different periods?

The reason I bring this up is that I would argue, just from my subjective POV, that the Devils drafting history of the past 15 years is much worse than just with physical def. Compared to the '90s it is almost as if we have a completely different GM with a completely difficerent scout support system. To me this indicates that something has changed and not for the better. OTOH, I'd like to really see just how much better or worse we are rather than going on my subjective assessment.

 

For the first part, I'd assume there must be something out there. Otherwise, it would take someone going draft by draft listing players that played a certain number of NHL games, therefore deeming them successful picks.

 

My theory on the drafting change is just that other teams caught up to Lou and Conte's drafting techniques. They were supposedly ahead of the curve in the 90's, plus they'd find guys like Rafalski undrafted. Then, it just seemed like they wouldn't get those hidden gems anymore.

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Is there a good comparative analysis of draft success out there? Specifically, something that would allow one to compare team-by-team success during certain periods, but also to compare same team success across different periods?

The reason I bring this up is that I would argue, just from my subjective POV, that the Devils drafting history of the past 15 years is much worse than just with physical def. Compared to the '90s it is almost as if we have a completely different GM with a completely difficerent scout support system. To me this indicates that something has changed and not for the better. OTOH, I'd like to really see just how much better or worse we are rather than going on my subjective assessment.

 

Here's one: http://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/27/ron-delorme-and-the-canucks-v-the-29-other-scouting-departments

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Zuccarello is going to get PAID next year.  

 

Standard bridge deal for Kreider.  

 

6mm also isn't terrible for RoR

Yeah, this is a pretty head-scratching move by Sather.  Obviously we have no idea how negotiations went and what Zuccarello was asking for but you gotta think he would've accepted a 5/25 deal. If he produces at a similar rate to last year, 6+  per year doesn't sound unreasonable. I'm guessing Sather needed the cap space this year

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Yeah, this is a pretty head-scratching move by Sather. Obviously we have no idea how negotiations went and what Zuccarello was asking for but you gotta think he would've accepted a 5/25 deal. If he produces at a similar rate to last year, 6+ per year doesn't sound unreasonable. I'm guessing Sather needed the cap space this year

A Rags fan buddy of mine told me Zuccarello was looking for $4.5 on a multi-year deal. He'll get 5 easy if he hits the market off a big year.
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On nhl.com, there's "Rosen's Mailbag" where Dan Rosen answers a few questions about the Devils (quite favorably btw):

 

Which team in the East will make the largest jump in the standings? -- @aketts15

My eyes are on the New Jersey Devils to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They needed offense after finishing 27th in goals per game (2.40) last season. They got it by signing Mike Cammalleri and Martin Havlat. Cammalleri could be the Devils' first 30-goal scorer since Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise. Havlat is a health risk, but it's a one-year contract and the Devils are uniting him with countrymen Patrik Elias, Jaromir Jagr and Marek Zidlicky. New Jersey's offense should be better. A lot hinges on the continued development of their young defensemen, particularly Adam Larsson, Jon Merrill and Eric Gelinas. Cory Schneider has to be the No. 1 goalie everyone has long thought he can be.

 

The Devils are overloaded with forwards. Who can be moved to make room for youth? -- @C_Diercks

The Devils have depth up front. Depth is essential to winning. They have a couple of young forwards who might be ready for bigger roles (Reid Boucher and Stephane Matteau), but why trade away depth just to give a young guy a chance? Those players will get their chance through injuries and/or if their play in the American Hockey League warrants it. No reason to force it when you're a cap-compliant team with depth.

 

He also mentions though, "You can make the case that the Devils (I already made that case), Washington Capitals and New York Islanders got better, but they won't all jump the Rangers."

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Yeah, this is a pretty head-scratching move by Sather.  Obviously we have no idea how negotiations went and what Zuccarello was asking for but you gotta think he would've accepted a 5/25 deal. If he produces at a similar rate to last year, 6+  per year doesn't sound unreasonable. I'm guessing Sather needed the cap space this year

 

They have zero room for such a long-term commitment. Zuccarello got over a $2 million raise off 1 good year. He got fair value and helped the team out. If that was the Devils, it would get praised. As it stands, the Rangers have potential UFA's Staal, Zuccarello and Brassard pending arbitration. Plus must bump up Stepan and Hagelin, whose bridge deals end. The organization faces challenging decisions ahead.

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Rangers are in a real tough spot with centers, because they don't have any in their organization, and while they have some interesting prospects, I don't think any are bringing back a center.  So it's either sign Brassard long-term or gamble on a UFA.  The UFA centers this coming year are Spezza, Vermette, Krejci, Fisher, B. Richards.  I can't imagine Krejci makes it to 7/1/2015, and that's a pretty dire list otherwise.

 

NJ will likely be in this spot in 2 years and it will not be pleasant.

 

EDIT:  Forgot about J.T. Miller, but I'm not sure how they feel about him.

Edited by Triumph
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He'll get bought out after 2 or 3 poor years.  Lou is making the Rangers look bad.  I guess they're banking on him turning into a 2nd line center.  I don't know if he's good enough or ever will be good enough to justify this deal.  This deal also makes him very hard to trade if he doesn't pan out to being worth that much.  I just don't see how the Rangers come close to last seasons performance.  I just don't see it with their roster.  They've added Glass, Stempniak, Lombardi, then retained Zucs, Brassard, and Kreider.   Unless Brassard and Zucs take the next steps in their developments, I don't see them coming as close as they did this past season.

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