Nate Silver has basically got this stuff down to the 't'. http://fivethirtyeig...gs.nytimes.com/ Right now he is calling NC for Romney but I think that will switch by election day and if so, it's the same map 2008 (sans Indiana). His work almost takes the fun out of following an election =[
I agree with you though, I don't think Romney can win at this point, he needs Obama to lose.
Yea, Silver is arguably the best and has called so much correctly in the last few cycles and is partially what Im basing my NC guess on. NC just seems like a tough go this time around, but I agree in the sense that if did go blue, that'd be the least surprising state to do so.
I don't even think a debate "win" does anything for Romney. He won't trounce Obama. The right will say he did, just as the left will say Obama will. He needs something that neither of them have much control over to win. I also don't think there's many undecideds to make much of a difference outside of a few points either way. Does anyone know anyone that's undecided at this point? I certainly don't.