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NFL Wild Card Weekend!


CRASHER

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The NFL Playoffs are here!!! Usually this is a sad time of year for me....the Cowboys have blown in it (again) in Week 17....the anti-football season is over and gone with and I usually have to deal with the Giants and/or Jet fans driving me nuts in the playoffs....but this year NONE OF THIS IS TRUE!!! Hell you can say half the teams playing this week don't belong in the playoffs and we have two flat out STINKERS this week....bad weather in Carolina and Pittsburgh and lots to talk about!! But before I get to it and since I only have four games to talk about here, I figured I'd take a look back at my pre-season predictions and see how God Awful they were (plus it's always fun to look back, and I'm saving my NFL Awards for the NFC and AFC Title week since I'll need the filler in that preview)

 

AFC East: NE (11-5), Buf (8-8), NYJ (8-8), Mia (7-9)
Actual: NE 12-4, Buf 9-7, Mia 8-8, NYJ 4-12

AFC North: Pit (11-5), Bal (10-6), Cin (8-8), Cle (6-10)
Actual: Pit 11-5, Cin 10-5-1, Bal 10-6, Cle 7-9

AFC South:  Ind (12-4), Jax (7-9), Ten (6-10), Hou (4-12)
Actual:  Ind 11-5, Hou 9-7,  Jax 4-13, Ten 2-14

AFC West:  Den (11-5), SD (9-7), KC (8-8), Oak (6-10)
Actual: Den 12-4, KC 9-7, SD 9-7, Oak 3-13

NFC East:  Was (10-6), Phi (10-6), Dal (7-8), NYG (6-10)
Actual: Dal 12-4, Phi 10-6, NYG 6-10, Was 4-12

NFC North:  GB (11-5), Chi (10-6), Min (6-10), Det (6-10)
Actual: GB 12-4, Det 11-5, Min 7-9, Chi 5-11

NFC South: NO (12-4), TB (7-9), Atl (6-10), Car (5-11)
Actual: Car 7-8-1, NO 7-9, Atl 6-10, TB 2-14

NFC West: Sea (11-5),  St L (9-7), SF (8-8), Ari (6-10)
Actual: Sea 12-4, Ari 11-5, SF 8-8, St L 6-10

 

So six picks dead on, but nailed six of eight division winners (and I only picked Washington because they played Dallas in Week 17 :P ), and nailed my San Fran will miss the playoffs predicition...eh, not terrible considering how damned impossible it is to predict NFL injuries and things like Jay Cutler imploding and the Saints being terrible at home this year....anyway....enough of the past...on to the teams still alive this week!!!!

Saturday January 3:
4pm:
Arizona at Carolina:

Boy it's been a tough week for ESPN...Lebron is hurt (and the NBA is unwatchable anyway), their precious SEC got their sh!t pushed in during

the college football playoffs and now they get the first ever NFL Anti-Football Playoff game!!! 3rd String QB vs the 7-8-1 Panthers...OH BOY!!

This is the mother of all "hard sells"....Arizona has done ZERO on offense the last month, terrible QB play, no running game and despite the

Jedi Magic Bruce Aryans has pulled to keep this team together, especially on defense...he's just starting to run out of players...

 

How Arizona got here:
....a hot start....solid play from Carson Palmer (remember him?) and big plays from the WR's (when they had a QB who could throw an NFL Football) carried the load while the running game struggled (at best)...and the patchwork defense played its balls out to get them here, the problem is that most of the players that got them here are now on IR and I don't think any team I can remember came into the playoffs on this kinda free fall...

 

How Carolina got here:
...flip the script here....despite not winning a game for TWO MONTHS, the Panthers got healthy (mostly getting a productive Johnathan Stewart) and put together just enough wins to win an awful NFC South division....improved defensive play and just enough offensive production from the TE's and Kelvin Benjamin to balance out the offense...and Cam running and playing at full speed again (he was dinged up all year)...Cam may not be putting up flashy numbers but he's shown the toughness and the will to prove he's gonna be worth the money the Panthers are gonna have to pay him in the near future...as the Cardinals got cold, the Panthers have gotten hot and could be a dangerous out (and end up over .500 if they go on a run, ha!)

 

Who's gonna win?
I think I made this obvious.....home field....running game....defense....QB Play, the only thing Carolina doesn't have an edge in is coaching....but Aryans is playing with 53 Pawns, while Carolina has Rooks, Bishops and Queens flying all over the place.....
Winner: Panthers
Game Quality: **

 

8pm:
Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

....good news for the Ravens....Levon Bell is NOT playing this week with the knee injury he got last week (might be the most important thing the Bengals do all season)....bad news Ravens fans....the Steelers aren't rolling out a 3rd String QB like their last two opponents did....but at least they get Nata back to fill the middle of their D-Line, you know, to slow up that running game that the Steelers won't rely on with Bell on the sidelines this week, either way these games are always ice packs and body bag type games....that's what makes them so damned fun, and believe me the Broncos are sitting and hoping the body count is HIGH in this one (since they don't wanna see EITHER of these teams next week)

 

How The Ravens got here:
The Ravens have been a weird team to figure out all year....yeah they get to the QB as good as anyone in the league does, but when they don't sack the QB, they get burnt by them, Joe Flacco has been as up and down as any QB not named Cutler this year....Steve Smith was strong early, but he's slowed down, at least Torrey Smith is picking up the slack, the TE position has been hurting without Pitta, at least they have stability in Justin Forsett (you know the comeback player of the year that no one wants to talk about), the Ravens are talented enough to beat anyone....but inconsistent enough to lose to anyone too.....

 

How the Steelers got here:
This is not your "classic" Steeler team for sure....this team is run by its offense...an improved and healthy line has given Ben time and space to chuck it to his receivers, Antonio Brown is as good as anyone in football, and Bryant and Wheaton are also dangerous deep threats, Heath Miller is the perfect underneath guy who's not afraid to sit down and block as well (expect a lot of him in the backfield to help protect to replace Bell)....a younger defense with a solid front 7 and a secondary who's getting better as the veterans are being fazed out...and as long as Tomlin doesn't trip any punt returners...he's the perfect coach for this team....

 

Who will win?
....well since I was just talking coaching, I'd say the coaching matchup is a push....the Ravens might be a bit better on defense....but even without Bell (Ben Tate is a vet and should be able to handle the pass protection and the token running duty they'll need from him to keep the Ravens pass rush honest)....and the Pitt WR vs the Ravens Secondary is wayy too lopsided for the Steelers to take the Ravens in this one....but it will be a close one...and nasty and fun and all that good stuff too!
Winner: Steelers

Game Quality: **** (NBC did pick the right game)

 

Sunday January 4:
1pm:
Cincinnatti at Indianpolis:

Oh boy....this is the hardest game of the week to figure out....neither one of these teams are all that glorious (and probably don't deserve to be in the playoffs, crazy to say abot an 11-5 Colts team, but half their wins are from that damned awful division)

 

How the Bengals got here:
Jeremy Hill has done a LOT to help the Bengals get into the playoffs....with a spotty passing game (AJ Green has been often injured, and no coincidence that Andy Dalton has stunk without him, the Bengals offense is highly limited outside of Green in the passing game, and the occasional chunk play from Bernard in the passing game)...a good secondary, but limited pass rush (only 20 sacks...egads) and a pretty bad run defense...geesh how the hell did they make the playoffs this year....well they DID play the NFC South which was four wins...no wait...they TIED Carolina....oi....this is a stranger playoff team than the damned Ravens....

 

How the Colts got here:
The Colts on the other hand you can sum up in two words.....Andrew Luck....yeah he's thrown a lot of picks (and a high number of pick 6's too) but no young QB in the league has been asked to do more with less than Luck has and he's done amazingly well with it....look at their running game....then look away! The Colts defensive numbers are amazingly not too different from the Bengals ones (who most people would assume is the better defense), the Colts average a sack more per game than the Bengals, 10 more INTs and forced seven more fumbles this year (wow!)....and if the Bengals don't have AJ Green in this game the Colts can certainly be more aggressive on defense which will  fit their style.....

 

Who will win?
Its looking like no AJ Green, that's gonna hurt for Sunday...not to mention the WORLD of pressure on Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton with no team even going 0 for their first Four cracks at the playoffs....a soft defense and Andrew Luck just has that 4th Quarter Magic that the Bengals can only wish and dream for.....this sounds like an upset pick.....but I'm ok with that.....I'll take Luck and Pagano over Lewis and Dalton anyday of the week in a playoff game...
Winner: Colts
Game Quality: ** 3/4 (this could be delightfully ugly!)

 

4pm:
Detroit at Dallas:

Ah, the game of the week....supposedly....remember kids, if it's cold out and your feet are numb you can step on anyone you want....twice....and get away with it....I think we all know the hype here, and this one doesn't need much hype.... #1 running game vs #1 running defense, and the Lions are getting Suh AND Fairley back....and don't forget about that Calvin Johnson guy too.....

 

How the Lions got here:
A stout defense, like I said #1 against the run, and a feared defensive line (stomps, sacks and run stuffs too)....the Lions were lead by their defense (16.8 points/game) , 41 sacks and 2+ takeaways a game...the offense suffered a bit as the reigns were put on Matthew Stafford and Calvin had an injury-filled year (Golden Tate did fill in nicely over the season) and a spotty running game of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush's three healthy games this year were a big plus....the Lions are a more solid and dangerous team then you'd expect because they've been under the radar of Seattle, Green Bay and even Dallas all year long.....

 

How the Cowboys got here:
This one's pretty simple....everything the Cowboys did came from their offensive line, when the Dallas line controlled the game, the running game dominated, Tony Romo stayed upright (thankfully its harder to "accidentally" stomp on a bad back then a aching calf muscle), Dez Bryant was all world and Demarco Murray made Emmitt Smith very angry wiping one of his records off the books...the Dallas offense let the Dallas defense be more aggressive and focus on turnovers and pass defense and Rod Maronelli did an AMAZING job with a unit that was the league's worst last year and allegedly was made workse casting some of the dead wood (yes I'm looking at you Demarcus Ware....) and solid special teams.....least Jason Garrett figured out he can't coach for a spit and did an all-world job in delegating....

 

Who will win?
Usually when you line a top defensive line against a top offensive line, the offensive line wins out, especially when it comes to the running game, not to mention if Detroit overplays the run, Dez Bryant will MURDER them with the big plays....and people want to give Tony Romo crap about his post-season?? Go look at Stafford's post-season numbers...hell go back to College....Stafford hasn't won since he was chasing cheerleaders in high school, and Dallas just has too much firepower for the Lions to stay with them, which just means Stafford is a time bomb ready to implode if he has to throw it over 30 times (God help me...I'm trying like hell to not feel confident about this, everytime I feel good about the Cowboys I end up drinking a bottle of whiskey....hopefully i stay sober Sunday.....)
Winner: Cowboys
Game Quality: ***

Edited by CRASHER
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How Arizona got here:

....a hot start....solid play from Carson Palmer (remember him?) and big plays from the WR's (when they had a QB who could throw an NFL Football) carried the load while the running game struggled (at best)...and the patchwork defense played its balls out to get them here, the problem is that most of the players that got them here are now on IR and I don't think any team I can remember came into the playoffs on this kinda free fall...

 

The '86 Jets lost five in a row going into the playoffs (many of them blowouts) and had a bunch of injuries too although I think the injuries of this Cardinal team are even on another level from that.  But that Jets team actually managed to win a playoff game and should have beaten the damn Browns too.

Carolina isn't even good. Yet they got bit lucky facing Arizona.

 

The part of me that likes Arizona and Arians wanted them to win this week, but the part of me that wanted to see an actual NFL team go to Seattle next week isn't sorry Carolina's winning.

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Kind of hilarious that Arizona got one last chance and the FIRST PLAY Lindley throws a pick...epic facepalm.

 

On another note it's kind of fascinating the number of teams actually going back to having 'one lead back' and away from the stupid platoon system (Hill for the Bengals, Stewart for the Panthers, even Ingram for the Saints who never met a crowded backfield they didn't like).

Edited by NJDevs4978
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I'm just glad this first game is over in enough time for me to catch Don Cherry and some of the leafs game (since they are a train wreck on par with this game :lol: )

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Kind of hilarious that Arizona got one last chance and the FIRST PLAY Lindley throws a pick...epic facepalm.

 

On another note it's kind of fascinating the number of teams actually going back to having 'one lead back' and away from the stupid platoon system (Hill for the Bengals, Stewart for the Panthers, even Ingram for the Saints who never met a crowded backfield they didn't like).

 

Like I said on Facebook....."the last time the Cardinals got a first down they were called the Phoenix Cardinals" :P

 

I do like the feature back idea much better personally (and it's more than a fantasy football thing)....it makes more sense.....yes backs are a dime a dozen but when you have a guy who's mostly a pass catcher or a slash runner or whatever specialty you want....you're tipping your hand to the defense, when it's Bell or Murray or Lacy or Lynch back there you don't really know what's coming....that's a big edge for the offense

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Its amazing how EVERY time a team gets stupid and goes for 2 too early in the game it comes back and bites them in the ass....they kick the PAT and the Raven FG makes it a 7 point game....now ya gotta go for two AGAIN just to make up for your first screw up.....coaches need to take and burn that "go for two sheet" until there's 5:00 left in the game......

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It's going to suck watching the Pats lose to them at home for the third time in the playoffs. Unless the Pats' O-line suddenly finds itself again, this is an awful matchup for the Patriots.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Pats will score less than 20 against the Ravens. We'll find out soon enough if this Pats' D is for real.

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It's going to suck watching the Pats lose to them at home for the third time in the playoffs. Unless the Pats' O-line suddenly finds itself again, this is an awful matchup for the Patriots

 

Ravens defense hasn't stopped the Patriots offense in 2 years.  Patriots defense is built to counter Baltimore's best offensive threats.

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Ravens defense hasn't stopped the Patriots offense in 2 years. Patriots defense is built to counter Baltimore's best offensive threats.

Guess you missed the 2012 AFC Championship game. Pats did beat up on a hobbled Ravens team last year in the regular season, for whatever that's worth.

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I was at the last 2 Patriots-Ravens in Baltimore. 

 

The game last year was a defacto playoff game for both teams in Week 16 and the Patriots beat the Ravens by 40 in Baltimore.  The Patriots defense is 50x's better than even that game last year.  The year before the Patriots lost to the Ravens on that fake-ref no-good/good field goal where the Patriots scored 31 points on a much better Ravens defense.  Both of those games were played without Gronk.

 

The Ravens have been killed all season by slot receivers, tight ends, and pass catching backs.  Pats can spread them out and easily get the Ravens defensive front to over-pursue out of position.  The Ravens offensive line is awful and gets brutalized by any defensive line with above-average talent and speed.  Pittsburgh's D is hurt, old, and unbelievably slow.  How many times can they play vanilla coverage and blitz somebody that takes 10 minutes to get to the LOS like they did tonight?  The Ravens best offensive plays for 3 quarters were pass interference flags or dumb personal fouls by the Steelers.

 

The only issue I see with the Patriots is when Josh McDaniel decides to get too cute and creative for his own good.

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I was at the last 2 Patriots-Ravens in Baltimore.

The game last year was a defacto playoff game for both teams in Week 16 and the Patriots beat the Ravens by 40 in Baltimore. The Patriots defense is 50x's better than even that game last year. The year before the Patriots lost to the Ravens on that fake-ref no-good/good field goal where the Patriots scored 31 points on a much better Ravens defense. Both of those games were played without Gronk.

The Ravens have been killed all season by slot receivers, tight ends, and pass catching backs. Pats can spread them out and easily get the Ravens defensive front to over-pursue out of position. The Ravens offensive line is awful and gets brutalized by any defensive line with above-average talent and speed. Pittsburgh's D is hurt, old, and unbelievably slow. How many times can they play vanilla coverage and blitz somebody that takes 10 minutes to get to the LOS like they did tonight? The Ravens best offensive plays for 3 quarters were pass interference flags or dumb personal fouls by the Steelers.

The only issue I see with the Patriots is when Josh McDaniel decides to get too cute and creative for his own good.

I wouldn't make that big of a deal out of last season's thrashing...Flacco could barely move in that game.

The Pats' O-line woes are a concern. I think this is game the D will have to win...Gronk or no Gronk.

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