DevilinLA Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 (edited) I've been wanting to have this discussion for a while. It seems like there is a lot of angst and difference amongst what is an "elite" player or a top roster player. It seems like people have different definitions of what a "good season" for a top 6 forward is. So I wanted to try something interesting. Lets scrap this season and lets also say that amongst the "Proven" NHL top 6 of the Devils the remaining players who command the biggest chunk of salary cap space ($6 M or over) are: Kovalchuk Elias Parise (projected) Without turning this into a statistical exercise, and considering a healthy full REGULAR season, what would folks consider a "good season for these players". You can do it in points or G/A, or whatever. Lets also consider that no new top 6 centers or wingers are coming in via UFA. Yes there are a lot of variables. Now, contrary to popular belief here, I'm not on an Elias witchunt. It's just common cap-knowledge that your top paid players need to produce to have a succesful team. Also, we can spare all the "We have no PMD", "Kovy is the source of why all the players and franchise will suck forever", and "Elias means more to this team than stats or points will express" Purely a board survey exercise to take stock. No agendas and lets keep it realistic. Lets see how close or far we are from each other. So what are the projected expectations? Edited January 13, 2011 by DevilinLA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zubie#8 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 (edited) Parise 30-35 Goals 40+ Assists Elias 25-30 Goals 40+ Assists Kovalchuk 40+ Goals 35+ Assists ...Zubrus 30+ Goals 50+ Assists Edited January 13, 2011 by Zubie#8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sundstrom Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i'm not sure what you're trying to get out of this exercise, but i would consider the following a good season next year from each: parise: 35 goals - 40 assists kovalchuk 35 goals - 40 assists elias: 20 goals - 45 assists while you say you can do it however, you're really asking for points. i mean, i think we'd all say, if the devils are successful and go far in the playoffs, these guys can all have 0 points and that has a lot to do with team success and what makes a good season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dead Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 For them to work with the rest of the team to gain enough points in the regular season to enter the playoffs, and then win 16 games in the playoffs every year.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevsFan7545 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 For them to work with the rest of the team to gain enough points in the regular season to enter the playoffs, and then win 16 games in the playoffs every year.... this / thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Elias 20g 40a Kovy 40g 40a Parise 35g 40a Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevilinLA Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 (edited) this / thread Yeah, why bother with the details huh? The point is purely to get an idea of production expectations relative to contract value. Edited January 13, 2011 by DevilinLA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Parise - fore check like hell, score goals in dirty areas, not to shoot the puck from all over after you get your numbers (ala Gionta), just battle Elias - be the glue to a line. In the Aline and the EGG line, Elias was always the most important player, bringing the best out of his teammates. he's very smart and helps out well in the dzone. Let him center Kovy next year. Kovalchuk - SHOOT THE PUCK. he's trying way to hard to fit in here, get him to run wild - let him loose. With hopefully Elias as his center there is already a player who can get him the puck and maybe pick up the slack for Kovy in the dzone if he finally decides to start taking chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chimaira_Devil_#9 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Points wise, I would expect both Kovalchuk and Parise to be around point per game players. I would like to think that Elias could still be a point per game player, but I don't see that happening (a bright spot this season would be seeing Elias hit the PPG mark). Kovalchuk: 45-50 goals 35-40 assists Parise: 35-40 golas 40-50 assists Elias: 20 goals 40 assists Is there a team with a better group of LW in the NHL?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revan Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 In a GOOD season, those players should get: -Kovy: about 90 pts. -Zach: 80-90 pts. -Patty: about 70 pts. If they end up a bit below those numbers, it's definitely not a tragedy. Finishing with 20 less is a disappointment, though. It's clearly the Elias thread that sparked this discussion and when you look at the guy, you can't really say anything bad about him. Look at his production post-lockout: 2005/2006: 38GP, 45 pts. - over a point per game, he was sensational after coming back from hepatitis 2006/2007: 75GP, 69 pts. - it was below expectations after the year he had before that, but looking back at it, the whole team's offensive production was pretty weak. He still ended up about the number of points I consider good for him 2007/2008: 74GP, 55 pts. - that's a letdown 2008/2009: 77GP, 78 pts. - again, a point per game, nearly 80 pts. total... What more can you command for 6M and from a veteran guy? Great offensive season 2009/2010: 58GP, 48 pts. - so, on pace for 67 pts. Definitely not bad, considering I think a 70 pt. season is good for him. This year, of course, is weak for the whole team, but he's the scoring leader and still on pace for 60 pts. You always gotta remember every player's production is going to drop in a season like this and despite that, Patrik still puts up decent numbers. That's just statistical analysis. But there is more to Elias' value - the leadership, the experience, the consistency. I definitely wouldn't give this guy up unless I got a REALLY good return for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hi, I'm VALUE! Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 For me, my top two scorers need to net me about 150-160 pts for the year. If you wanna divide that 90-70 for Kovy, or 80-80, or whatever, for me to consider a successful production-wise year I want Kovalchuk and Parise to combine for something to the effect of 150-160 pts. Elias is a little different. I'd set my expectations for him based more on assists, which I'd love to be in the 40 range, with a chip-in of about 15-20 goals on the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 (edited) Points are all about context: linemates, opponents, zone start, power play time, shooting percentage while on ice, and other chance factors. Players have some control over these things, but not as much as we'd like to believe. Edited January 13, 2011 by Triumph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarpathianForest Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Parise: 86 goals 45 assists Kovalchuk: 76 goals 51 assists Elias: 69 goals 57 assists I just swapped the names with some other players' stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devil Dan 56 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Parise: 86 goals 45 assists Kovalchuk: 76 goals 51 assists Elias: 69 goals 57 assists I just swapped the names with some other players' stats. Brett Hull, Alex Mogilny (or Sellanne) and... hmmm. I'm lost on the last one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarpathianForest Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Brett Hull, Alex Mogilny (or Sellanne) and... hmmm. I'm lost on the last one. This guy: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quinn01 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 (edited) Parise: 42 Goals, 48 Assists. Kovie: 39 Goals, 36 Assists. Elias: 28 Goals, 38 Assists. Edited January 13, 2011 by Quinn01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic Rattlehead18 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Parise: 38 goals, 42 assists Kovalchuk: Sent to Russia Elias: 31 goals, 33 assists Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLL765 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I would say this: Parise: 35-45G 40-45A 75-90PTS Kovalchuk: 40-50G 35-45A 75-95PTS Elias:20-25G 40-50A 60-75PTS To play on the top 2 lines I expect a player to put up at the very least 50pts no matter what their salary is. So assuming we weren't the train wreck we are this season and we had a normal year, I'd have expected Arnott and Langs to put up 50+pts. Elias and Zajac to hit 60+pts. Parise and Kovy to get 75+pts. Zubrus is odd because eh's not really a top 6 guy, but is better than most bottom 6 guys, so if he got top 6 minutes most night, I'd expect him to get around 45-50pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Parise: 38 Kovy: 40 Elias: 20 All of them GWG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caron14 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Kovalchuk= 40+ goal around 85 points Parisé= 35+ goal around 80 points Elias = 25+ goal around 70 points So that what i expect from these players.... PS: Couturier first season= 25 goals+ and aroun 65 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.