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#1 Z-Man

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 12:43 PM

http://www.puckprosp...nfiltered/?p=70

GVT: Goals Versus Threshold. The value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement level player would contribute. GVT aggregates offensive, defensive, goaltending and shootout contributions in a single metric. The sum of player GVT on a team equals that team’s goal differential plus the replacement level, which is 50% of the average team scoring level.

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Lacking anyone to replace Parise, not to mention Ponikarovsky, it could be quite a hangover for the Stanley Cup finalist Devils. Though we didn't factor salary into this particular study, Martin Brodeur's two-year deal with a $4.5 million cap hit would produce a GVS (Goals Versus Salary) of minus-10.4 goals, should the legend's mediocre performance of the past two seasons continue. That would make Brodeur's deal the worst contract offered so far this offseason.
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#2 The 29th Pick

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 01:19 PM

did Linda Cohn write these stats !!
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#3 Triumph

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 01:35 PM

GVT has flaws - it values goals and assists too highly, doesn't account for tons of factors - but it's okay for goaltenders, and there's no question about that Brodeur contract. It's an abomination.

Edited by Triumph, 11 July 2012 - 01:35 PM.

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#4 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 01:59 PM

Doesn't take into account post season performance. Obviously, there are extenuating circumstances.
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#5 Daniel

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 02:07 PM

GVT has flaws - it values goals and assists too highly, doesn't account for tons of factors - but it's okay for goaltenders, and there's no question about that Brodeur contract. It's an abomination.


I still don't see how anyone cares about Marty's contract at this point. It is not preventing the team from acquiring other players. It played zero role in Parise's defection. It doesn't have any serious cap implications. Even if the cap drops significantly after the CBA, we're still going to be far enough from reaching it so that it won't play a role in whether Zajac can be re-signed. It isn't the sort of deal that will effect the finances in any significant way. At worst, it's a reward for past services rendered. Doesn't bother me.

I would also argue that GVT has it's limits when assessing goalies like Marty that, especially as they have gotten older, are notoriously poor at the beginning of the season. As even Tri has admitted, he was very good in the second half of the season, and played well, but not spectacularly, during the playoffs. While I can't speak for the advanced statistics, I recall that Marty was just as good if not better than Lunqvist in the second half for the meat and potato stats. True, as he gets older, his overall performance, including his performance down the stretch will likely decline. Given the lack of any other realistic alternatives, short of a Brian Boucher-type journeyman, it's a risk worth taking even if you don't think it's right that he's overpaid.

Again, the worst move by far as the Salvador deal. Not so much because he's overpaid, but that it will force Lou to trade a better defenseman. The only way Lou redeems himself for that is if he manages to pull off another Tom Kurvers-like swindle.
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#6 Triumph

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 03:29 PM

I still don't see how anyone cares about Marty's contract at this point. It is not preventing the team from acquiring other players. It played zero role in Parise's defection. It doesn't have any serious cap implications. Even if the cap drops significantly after the CBA, we're still going to be far enough from reaching it so that it won't play a role in whether Zajac can be re-signed. It isn't the sort of deal that will effect the finances in any significant way. At worst, it's a reward for past services rendered. Doesn't bother me.


It's at least $2M above his value. If you don't think the Devils could do a lot with $2M, well, we must disagree.

I would also argue that GVT has it's limits when assessing goalies like Marty that, especially as they have gotten older, are notoriously poor at the beginning of the season. As even Tri has admitted, he was very good in the second half of the season, and played well, but not spectacularly, during the playoffs. While I can't speak for the advanced statistics, I recall that Marty was just as good if not better than Lunqvist in the second half for the meat and potato stats. True, as he gets older, his overall performance, including his performance down the stretch will likely decline. Given the lack of any other realistic alternatives, short of a Brian Boucher-type journeyman, it's a risk worth taking even if you don't think it's right that he's overpaid.


The games in the second half of the season aren't worth more points than games in the first half. They're all worth the same thing. There are no 'advanced statistics' for goaltenders - besides GVT, I guess, which is just a consolidation of things 'regular' stats already tell us. While Lundqvist's first half put the Rangers into the playoffs almost singlehandedly, Brodeur's first half almost cost them the playoffs singlehandedly.
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#7 Baggy Spandex

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 03:32 PM

It's at least $2M above his value. If you don't think the Devils could do a lot with $2M, well, we must disagree.


Overpay or watch him retire somewhere other than NJ. Easy choice for me.
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#8 Daniel

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 03:48 PM

It's at least $2M above his value. If you don't think the Devils could do a lot with $2M, well, we must disagree.



The games in the second half of the season aren't worth more points than games in the first half. They're all worth the same thing. There are no 'advanced statistics' for goaltenders - besides GVT, I guess, which is just a consolidation of things 'regular' stats already tell us. While Lundqvist's first half put the Rangers into the playoffs almost singlehandedly, Brodeur's first half almost cost them the playoffs singlehandedly.


Well, maybe the extra $2 million could pay for some extra Devils dancers, but otherwise, it's just going into the banks' pockets.

And yes, I realize that all games matter. However, as bad/overrated as one may think Marty is, the fact remains is that he's been good enough to get us into the playoffs virtually every year of his career, and pretty comfortably at that, including last year. If he's playing better as playoff time rolls around we're better off.

I guess what I'm getting at is that Marty's contract is a red herring.
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#9 Triumph

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 03:59 PM

Well, maybe the extra $2 million could pay for some extra Devils dancers, but otherwise, it's just going into the banks' pockets.


The Devils need a forward. That money could go towards one, instead it's going into Melanie's pockets.

And yes, I realize that all games matter. However, as bad/overrated as one may think Marty is, the fact remains is that he's been good enough to get us into the playoffs virtually every year of his career, and pretty comfortably at that, including last year. If he's playing better as playoff time rolls around we're better off.


This is something we've been over a lot - the Devils defense has been incredible over the course of his career. Brodeur was massively valuable in 07 and 08, but other than that, I'm not sure how many years he's been *the* factor at getting NJ into the playoffs.

I guess what I'm getting at is that Marty's contract is a red herring.


Like Communism, I suppose.
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#10 Daniel

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 04:07 PM

The Devils need a forward. That money could go towards one, instead it's going into Melanie's pockets.



Like I said, if you can name someone the Devils won't go out and acquire (or keep) but for Marty's contract, let me know. Otherwise, he's gotta feed the monkey. Hasn't that ever occurred to you, sir.
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#11 Triumph

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:01 PM

Like I said, if you can name someone the Devils won't go out and acquire (or keep) but for Marty's contract, let me know. Otherwise, he's gotta feed the monkey. Hasn't that ever occurred to you, sir.


Alexei Ponikarovsky.
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#12 Daniel

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:27 PM

Alexei Ponikarovsky.


Was clearly going to be gone anyway for reasons I still can't figure out.
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#13 ghdi

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:35 PM

Was clearly going to be gone anyway for reasons I still can't figure out.


I think the chance to go play with Antropov again is the reason he went where he did. If he valued winning, he wouldnt of gone to the damn Jets. He could've waited, what, 2 or 3 more days until Zach decided and then maybe would've been brought back.

Saying this money could've gone to Poni is silly. There are extenuating circumstances and legitimate possibilities other than money being the reason he didnt come back.
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#14 oconnellrules

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 07:29 PM

EARTH TO EVERYONE; MARTY ISNT JUST A LEGEND, HES OUR LEGEND. PAY THE MAN HANDSOMELY FOR SERVICES RENDERED. WHEN HE FINALLY DOES RETIRE WE'LL ALL UNDERSTAND THIS CONTRACT
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#15 Neb00rs

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 07:34 PM

EARTH TO EVERYONE; MARTY ISNT JUST A LEGEND, HES OUR LEGEND. PAY THE MAN HANDSOMELY FOR SERVICES RENDERED. WHEN HE FINALLY DOES RETIRE WE'LL ALL UNDERSTAND THIS CONTRACT


This is so true. This is an area where I don't participate because the level of ridiculousness just gets out of hand. It's Marty, it's not crippling our team and he took less throughout his career to stay with us. I think we can pay him back just a little. This is not an issue in which I think it's proper to measure the player in terms of skill level and production. we have posters here saying things like, "Well, we could have gotten {insert goalie name here} for this much less." It's like, stfu with that stupid sh!t - it's Martin Brodeur, ya know; THE NJ Devil?
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#16 Martyisth3b3st

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 07:38 PM

I think people bitching about giving Marty, the guy who's taken pay-cut after pay-cut to stay with our team, win over 600 games, 5 Eastern Conference Championships, 3 stanley cups, and a few Vezinas, are fvcking insane. I don't give a sh!t about stats. If he gets paid that to be a backup, FVCK IT, I don't care. I'd rather the Devils overpay a guy by a million bucks than see Marty skating out in a different sweater.

Alexei Ponikarovsky.

Yuh huh, the reason the Devils didn't sign Ponikarovsky is because they gave Marty 1.5-2m extra.

Show me your statistics that say that.
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#17 capo

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 08:22 PM

If Marty is collecting for past services. So be it! The Devils owe him. I always thought he deserved a point where he would get overpaid for taking far less than he could have got in the past. Quite frankly, there was no other option. Lou has not prepared this team for life after Marty.
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#18 ghdi

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 08:31 PM

I agree that Marty got overpaid, but IMO he's worth it to us. Just the fact its a virtual certainty he finishes his career here is worth what he got paid.

Had he got that contract anywhere else, I'd have scoffed at whoever paid it, but I'd have been more mad he was putting on another sweater than anything else.
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#19 CAdevsfan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 09:54 PM

There is an over 100-page thread on everyone being furious with our former captain for a myriad of things, one of which is his lack of loyalty to the organization that drafted him and made him a "star" player. But when it comes to rewarding that loyalty to the face of our franchise who has been nothing but loyal to this same organization for nearly 20 years, some people scoff at overpaying him and giving him an extra year. If you want players to be loyal, you have to show that same loyalty to them at the end of their careers.

Sorry but you can't have it both ways. I have absolutely no problem with Marty's contract. I was actually more worried about losing him than Zach and I can't even fathom seeing Marty in another sweater either. If that costs more than what others think he's worth, so be it.
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#20 devlman

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 10:36 PM

Did we overpay Marty? Yes
Is the extra million bucks negligible considering we wouldn't have a proper replacement next year? Yes
Does he deserve it after years of being underpaid? Yes
Are the fans and paying customers happy Marty will retire a Devil? Yes
Can Marty still bring it in big games? Yes

I don't really see the big deal with his contract.
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