Mike Brown Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 But the higher seeded teams need less points to reach 92...which they will. Here's what all 11 teams have to do to get to 92 points. The chance of 6 of the following 11 teams getting to 92 points is there, but not very likely. Tampa Bay: 8-8-1 or 7-7-3 Montreal: 7-7-1 or 6-6-3 Toronto: 6-7-2 or 7-8-0 Detroit: 10-6-1 or 9-5-3 Ottawa: 11-4-2 NY Rangers: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0 Columbus: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0 New Jersey: 10-5-1 or 9-4-3 Philadelphia: 8-6-3 or 9-7-1 Washington: 10-3-2 Carolina: 12-3-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) Here's what all 11 teams have to do to get to 92 points. The chance of 6 of the following 11 teams getting to 92 points is there, but not very likely. Tampa Bay: 8-8-1 or 7-7-3 Montreal: 7-7-1 or 6-6-3 Toronto: 6-7-2 or 7-8-0 Detroit: 10-6-1 or 9-5-3 Ottawa: 11-4-2 NY Rangers: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0 Columbus: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0 New Jersey: 10-5-1 or 9-4-3 Philadelphia: 8-6-3 or 9-7-1 Washington: 10-3-2 Carolina: 12-3-1 I'm sorry but what on Earth are you talking about? The only teams that need to get to 92 to eliminate 91 as an entry point for us are teams currently seeded 1-9. Teams 1-5 WILL get 92 points unless a catastrophic collapse. Of 6,7,8,9 the likelihood that those teams get to 92 is also high. Perhaps 1 or 2 doesn't but that is a perhaps and only 1 not getting there eliminates 91 from the 8th spot. You are overthinking this. Your point that teams play each other is what it is; silly and obvious. Edited March 14, 2014 by Neb00rs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm sorry but what on Earth are you talking about? The only teams that need to get to 92 to eliminate 91 as an entry point for us are teams currently seeded 1-9. Teams 1-5 WILL get 92 points unless a catastrophic collapse. Of 6,7,8,9 the likelihood that those teams get to 92 is also high. Perhaps 1 or 2 doesn't but that is a perhaps and only 1 not getting there eliminates 91 from the 8th spot. You are overthinking this. Your point that teams play each other is what it is; silly and obvious. Well if you want to be simple. 8 teams need at least 92 points to make 91 points not enough to make the playoffs. Chances of that happening are slim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) Well if you want to be simple. 8 teams need at least 92 points to make 91 points not enough to make the playoffs. Chances of that happening are slim. See here you're just wrong. Have you have followed a hockey season before? I don't mean that facetiously. Edited March 14, 2014 by Neb00rs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) We'll just have to wait and see. Edited March 14, 2014 by Mike Brown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We'll just have to wait and see. No, what you said is just factually not right. The slim chance is that 91 cuts it. That is not debatable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs4978 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) Again, 92+ points has been the cutoff point every year but one since the lockout. There's no reason to expect that to change this year, ergo 91 woudln't be enough. Maybe this year is one of the years where it will be, but there's no reason to consistently say it'll only take 91 when history shows that's not the case. 2011-12 - Ottawa 92 points 2010-11 - Rangers 93 points 2009-10 - Montreal 88 points 2008-09 - Montreal 93 points 2007-08 - Boston 94 points 2006-07 - Islanders 92 points 2005-06 - Tampa Bay 92 points All the eight seeds since the lockout. Edited March 14, 2014 by NJDevs4978 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) ^ This is all and exactly what I am saying. Thank you 4978, perhaps you put it in clearer terms than I could have. Edited March 14, 2014 by Neb00rs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No, what you said is just factually not right. The slim chance is that 91 cuts it. That is not debatable. There's a slim chance that 8 teams in the East gets to 92 points. It's roughly a 25% chance that 91 points won't be enough to make it. Again, 92+ points has been the cutoff point every year but one since the lockout. There's no reason to expect that to change this year, ergo 91 woudln't be enough. Maybe this year is one of the years where it will be, but there's no reason to consistently say it'll only take 91 when history shows that's not the case. 2011-12 - Ottawa 92 points 2010-11 - Rangers 93 points 2009-10 - Montreal 88 points 2008-09 - Montreal 93 points 2007-08 - Boston 94 points 2006-07 - Islanders 92 points 2005-06 - Tampa Bay 92 points All the eight seeds since the lockout. Those seasons have no bearing on this year though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There's a slim chance that 8 teams in the East gets to 92 points. It's roughly a 25% chance that 91 points won't be enough to make it. Those seasons have no bearing on this year though. Oh man Mike Brown, you're lucky you're a 49ers fan or I would have given up on you by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs4978 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Again, what basis do you have saying there's a 'slim' chance 8 teams get to 92 points? The current pace? The pace always goes up down the stretch as three-point games increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Again, what basis do you have saying there's a 'slim' chance 8 teams get to 92 points? The current pace? The pace always goes up down the stretch as three-point games increase. Sports Club Stats has 91 points with anywhere from 76.9% - 83% chance at making the playoffs for us. They take into account strength of schedule, and a number of other factors to come to their conclusion. You don't have to buy into their theory if you don't want to. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html Here is a source that agrees with you. http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs4978 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sports Club Stats has 91 points with anywhere from 76.9% - 83% chance at making the playoffs for us. They take into account strength of schedule, and a number of other factors to come to their conclusion. You don't have to buy into their theory if you don't want to. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/NewJersey.html Here is a source that agrees with you. http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi Ya know, I thought this was a fair answer last night...but after tonight those odds have probably dramatically shifted lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 fvck this thread. 10-4-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'7' Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 (edited) fvck this thread. 10-4-1 The Devils can't do 10-4-1. They're just not capable 8-6-1 is what they will likely do. 88 points. And just close enough so that we will be cursing the shootout. Edited March 15, 2014 by '7' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The Devils can't do 10-4-1. They're just not capable 8-6-1 is what they will likely do. 88 points. And just close enough so that we will be cursing the shootout. yea i honestly dont see that being possible either.. they screwed themselves earlier and again its going to end up screwing us once again for the second time in a row now.. im certainly not getting my hopes up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ya know, I thought this was a fair answer last night...but after tonight those odds have probably dramatically shifted lol Yea, but it's still not bad. If they go 8-3-4, they have a 69.2% chance. If they go 9-4-2, they have a 73.1% chance. If they go 10-5-0, they have a 76.2% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The Devils can't do 10-4-1. They're just not capable 8-6-1 is what they will likely do. 88 points. And just close enough so that we will be cursing the shootout. yea i honestly dont see that being possible either.. they screwed themselves earlier and again its going to end up screwing us once again for the second time in a row now.. im certainly not getting my hopes up Both of you need to realize that they just did go on a 5-2-0 run (5-3-0 now). With the schedule the way it is, it's very easily doable to double that to 10-4-0. The next 5 games are the toughest games they'll have to play. Then it's basically a cake walk considering most of the games are at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devil Dan 56 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Both of you need to realize that they just did go on a 5-2-0 run (5-3-0 now). With the schedule the way it is, it's very easily doable to double that to 10-4-0. The next 5 games are the toughest games they'll have to play. Then it's basically a cake walk considering most of the games are at home. Absolutely nothing has been a cakewalk this season. I see no sign that anything is going to be now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I am not one who believe this season is over yet. That said, the optimists on here are assuming that 10-4-1 will be good enough to get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWW Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Both of you need to realize that they just did go on a 5-2-0 run (5-3-0 now). With the schedule the way it is, it's very easily doable to double that to 10-4-0. The next 5 games are the toughest games they'll have to play. Then it's basically a cake walk considering most of the games are at home. Cake walk? We just lost to fvcking Florida. A literal cake walk would not be a cake walk for this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 keep smoking whatever it is your smoking brown if thats what you think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 91 points right now gives you a pretty good chance to make the playoffs. We can get to 91 just by going 10-5. We won't need a 3 game winning streak to get there. We just need to keep winning at the pace we're currently winning at since the break. I was anticipating winning 2 of 3 this week. I expected the loss to be against Philly and not Florida, but that's not relevant. If we win tonight, we're 6-3 which is keeping pace to what we've been doing. Regarding the schedule, we have a very home heavy schedule the rest of the way. We're a much better home team than away team this year. 10 of our 15 games are at the Rock. And after this 5 game stretch where we go Tampa, Boston, Wild, Rags, Leafs, we have 10 lighter opponents. Losing one game to Florida doesn't change the fact you'd rather play a light schedule than a tough schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Have we gone 10-5 over a 15 game stretch yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 During this 7 game stretch I said I'd like them to go 4-3. This is where we're at right now. Which means we have to win 3 of the next 4 in order to be in a good place. So if we lose tonight, and against Boston which is what am anticipating, we have to win 3 in a row against the Wild, Rags, and Leafs. Difficult. Hell yeah, but do able. 1. Flyers: Win 2. Panthers: Loss 3. Lightning: Loss (I'm already conceding this game) 4. Bruins: Loss (This is pretty much a guaranteed loss. Hopefully Boston lays an egg.) 5. Wild 6. Rangers 7. Leafs If they do that going 6-4 against these 10 games is reasonable. 1. Coyotes 2. Islanders 3. Panthers 4. Sabres 5. Capitals 6. Hurricanes 7. Senators 8. Flames 9. Islanders 10. Bruins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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