Should the New Jersey Devils Consider Going After Alexander Semin?

[CarpathianForest]

Bottom line: I think Lou is going to do jack and sh!t. I remember that when Rafalski and Gomez split after 06-07 we replaced them with Zubrus who is good. However, we went out and got Arron Asham, Vishnevski and (no disrespect)Karel Rachunek.

Surprisingly that 07-08 squad was good, but is an example of Lou's tendency to replace big losses with small fixes.

[Daniel]

Bottom line: I think Lou is going to do jack and sh!t. I remember that when Rafalski and Gomez split after 06-07 we replaced them with Zubrus who is good. However, we went out and got Arron Asham, Vishnevski and (no disrespect)Karel Rachunek.

Surprisingly that 07-08 squad was good, but is an example of Lou's tendency to replace big losses with small fixes.

Who should he have gotten in that year?

[CarpathianForest]

Who should he have gotten in that year?

Let's see:

Scott Hannan

Radek Dvorak

cory Sarich

Michael Nylander

Roman Hamrlik

Todd bertuzzi

Michael Handzus

Ken Klee(always a plus)

Eric Belanger

Ruslan Fedotenko

Mike Comrie

Sheldon Souray

Andy Sutton

Brent Sopel

Adam Hall

Edited July 9, 2012 by CarpathianForest

[Triumph]

I can't access the 07-08 options from the memory drive in my brain, but I'm sure their were better ideas out there than Arron Asham and Vitaly Vishnevski.

What does one thing have to do with the other? Yeah, the Devils lost Gomez and Rafalski. But their depth players were fvcking terrible the previous two years. Asham was pretty bad for NJ, but he had been a decent depth player before that and has been a decent depth guy since - a 4th liner who can play occasionally on the 3rd line and will get 10 goals a year.

Vishnevski wasn't good, and that's a case of Lou valuing tools over performance, but he was sent packing after a year - wasn't a big deal.

[CarpathianForest]

What does one thing have to do with the other? Yeah, the Devils lost Gomez and Rafalski. But their depth players were fvcking terrible the previous two years. Asham was pretty bad for NJ, but he had been a decent depth player before that and has been a decent depth guy since - a 4th liner who can play occasionally on the 3rd line and will get 10 goals a year.

Vishnevski wasn't good, and that's a case of Lou valuing tools over performance, but he was sent packing after a year - wasn't a big deal.

So you're saying that Lou's plan to replace two big pieces on the roster with "depth" players was a reasonable move.

[SterioDesign]

for all we know maybe Semin doesnt want to play here... so lets not get our hopes up... it's already a super sh!tty offseason, lets not make it worst

low expectations is key to happyness

[CarpathianForest]

for all we know maybe Semin doesnt want to play here... so lets not get our hopes up... it's already a super sh!tty offseason, lets not make it worst

low expectations is key to happyness

Well it is Lou's m.o. to replace big holes with small pieces. Maybe we can stick Patrick Rissmiller on our first line.

[Triumph]

So you're saying that Lou's plan to replace two big pieces on the roster with "depth" players was a reasonable move.

I'm saying that you don't have any idea what you're talking about, and I think that you're probably intentionally trolling, and I don't have any idea why. But assuming this isn't one of the times you're being insincere just to do it:

No. Vishnevski played 3rd pair minutes. Rachunek, if anything, was an attempt at a low cost Rafalski replacement, but Rachunek played against weak competition - he did rather well doing so though, not sure why he fell out of favor. Then I remember the coach and the consonant that Rachunek's name ends with.

In general, replacing players with free agents is a terrible solution. Free agents are normally a bad buy, and they're especially a bad buy when you're off panicking because you lost a top player.

[ghdi]

So you're saying that Lou's plan to replace two big pieces on the roster with "depth" players was a reasonable move.

Why are you looking at every move as a "replacement" for those two? Asham was not brought in to replace Gomez. We had very little depth at the 3rd and 4th lines. We did lose Rafalski, and he brought in Vishnevski, Malmivaara, and Sheldon Brookbank, and later traded for Salvador at the break. He was basically trying to see if anything would stick and it didnt work out. There were other things that needed "replacing" too. Just as Barch isnt a replacement for Zach.

Look at our defense from 06-07

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NJD/2007.html

Compare it to 07-08

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NJD/2008.html

The changes you're pointing out as "replacements" were not replacements for the two we lost. They were moves to try and help our depth and get better as a whole unit.

People forget that players don't always want to come to New Jersey. Its not as simple as going to the market and "getting someone" like a shopping list. The player has to want to come here too. We didnt have that big of a drop off from 06-07 to 07-08. It was a difference of 8 points and our first year with Sutter.

The season is not over if we sign no one to "replace" Zach. We were a good team without him in the 2nd half of 10-11 and theres nothing to say we can't improve the team later on.

Edited July 9, 2012 by ghdi

[Daniel]

Well it is Lou's m.o. to replace big holes with small pieces. Maybe we can stick Patrick Rissmiller on our first line.

Or again, it might be that there aren't a whole lot of players out there at any given time to fill those "big holes", especially when you consider that, for the most part, you have to give up something to get those players. And there aren't a lot of Mike Milbury's out there to rob.

Believe it or not, there are 29 teams out there that are trying to upgrade their rosters, and most of the time they're willing to pay more in money, players or both to do that. In fact, that's the way it is for most teams.

[CarpathianForest]

That's utter nonsense Tri. You can't prove factually that siging UFAs is worse off than trades or organizational development. For every Scott Gomez signing there's a Zdeno Chara signing. I'll point you to the big UFA of 2011, Ilya Kovalchuk. Although, he was questionable the first half of the 10-11 season, he has vastly improved the Devils.

If you're saying the way to go is through player development then why haven't the Oilers been competitive since 05-06? They are a total free agent dead zone.

The only team that has had overwhelming success with player development in the recent past has been the Penguins and that's cause they continuously tanked their way into some very solid draft classes. Even with that the Pens still can't develop any good wingers for Malkin and Crosby.

[Neb00rs]

Or again, it might be that there aren't a whole lot of players out there at any given time to fill those "big holes", especially when you consider that, for the most part, you have to give up something to get those players. And there aren't a lot of Mike Milbury's out there to rob.

Believe it or not, there are 29 teams out there that are trying to upgrade their rosters, and most of the time they're willing to pay more in money, players or both to do that. In fact, that's the way it is for most teams.

I think in the argument going on here between Tri and Carp, this is the post to look at.

[CarpathianForest]

I think Daniel's argument has weight to it, but we just came off a Stanley Cup run. We lost arguably our best player. I'd rather see us go the way of the 08-09 Penguins instead of the 05-06 Oilers. Fact of the matter is that Lou needs to look at why we didn't win the whole enchilada and realize fatigue was a contributing factor. Playing guys like Janssen and Boulton on the 4th line lead to more ice time for guys like Elias and Sykora who were vapors come April. It just looks to me like Lou could have brought in some decent 4th liners if that's where he chose to make his moves. Zach's gone. Okay, move CBGB up to the third line and build around Josefson on the 4th line with decnt players. But, no, we sign Janssen and Barch which just leads me to believe PDB will have no choice but to give these older players more ice time and burn them out again. If that doesn't sound any good then CBGB could have been the 4th line with a 3rd line built around Josefson, but you can't dress Barch and Janssen as 3rd liners.

[ghdi]

The only team that has had overwhelming success with player development in the recent past

Um, take a look at the Stanley Cup champs from this year. Their key guys are almost all home grown. Kopitar, Quick, Doughty, Brown, are all Kings draftees and they made trades that helped. The Blackhawks were good even before Hossa went there, that pickup put them over the top. Go back to the 2008 Red Wings, that was almost entirely homegrown, aside from a few key ingredients. The core guys tend to be drafted talent. 2006 Hurricanes. 2005 Lightning. Look at these teams. Homegrown talent and the right moves made. Im not going pre-cap because its pointless, but even pre-cap when the likes of the Leafs and Rags were so spendy, they'd have a good year here or there and nothing sustained. The Devils Cup teams were filled to the brim with homegrown talent aside from key pickups like Stevens. Brodeur, Niedermayer, Daneyko, Elias, Sykora, Madden, Rafalski, Gionta, Holik, all of these are Devil products.

The best teams and Cup winning teams tend to have a good group of homegrown talent and make the right moves in Free Agency or trades. They don't build teams with mercenaries. Free agency is spices and extra ingredients. Homegrown talent is the meat.

[Daniel]

I think Daniel's argument has weight to it, but we just came off a Stanley Cup run. We lost arguably our best player. I'd rather see us go the way of the 08-09 Penguins instead of the 05-06 Oilers. Fact of the matter is that Lou needs to look at why we didn't win the whole enchilada and realize fatigue was a contributing factor. Playing guys like Janssen and Boulton on the 4th line lead to more ice time for guys like Elias and Sykora who were vapors come April. It just looks to me like Lou could have brought in some decent 4th liners if that's where he chose to make his moves. Zach's gone. Okay, move CBGB up to the third line and build around Josefson on the 4th line with decnt players. But, no, we sign Janssen and Barch which just leads me to believe PDB will have no choice but to give these older players more ice time and burn them out again. If that doesn't sound any good then CBGB could have been the 4th line with a 3rd line built around Josefson, but you can't dress Barch and Janssen as 3rd liners.

I hope Lou does try to get Semin, Shane Doan, or hell, even Rick Nash (since I'm bored, I'll stick my neck out and do one of those ridiculous sports talk radio caller trade proposals in a separate thread). Of course it all comes down to what, in the case of Semin and Doan, you have to pay, or Nash, what players you have to give up. That's what the debate is about, not whether Lou gets a big name just because.

[CarpathianForest]

Um, take a look at the Stanley Cup champs from this year. Their key guys are almost all home grown. Kopitar, Quick, Doughty, Brown, are all Kings draftees and they made trades that helped. The Blackhawks were good even before Hossa went there, that pickup put them over the top. Go back to the 2008 Red Wings, that was almost entirely homegrown, aside from a few key ingredients. The core guys tend to be drafted talent. 2006 Hurricanes. 2005 Lightning. Look at these teams. Homegrown talent and the right moves made. Im not going pre-cap because its pointless, but even pre-cap when the likes of the Leafs and Rags were so spendy, they'd have a good year here or there and nothing sustained. The Devils Cup teams were filled to the brim with homegrown talent aside from key pickups like Stevens. Brodeur, Niedermayer, Daneyko, Elias, Sykora, Madden, Rafalski, Gionta, Holik, all of these are Devil products.

The best teams and Cup winning teams tend to have a good group of homegrown talent and make the right moves in Free Agency or trades. They don't build teams with mercenaries. Free agency is spices and extra ingredients. Homegrown talent is the meat.

Not exactly true. The Kings were pretty awful even when they had Kopitar and Brown. They started to become successful when they brought in necessary pieces like Scuderi, Stoll, Penner. The Red Wings did do it with home grown talent, but unlike New Jersey, the Wings managed to stay successful while developing that talent by keeping their core together with guys like Draper, Maltby etc.

03-04 Lightning benefitted from drafting and signings. Andreychuk, Khabibulin and St. Louis weren't homegrown.

Same thing with the Canes. They had guys like Doug Weight and Mark Recchi coming into the mix.

[ghdi]

Okay, move CBGB up to the third line and build around Josefson on the 4th line with decnt players. But, no, we sign Janssen and Barch which just leads me to believe PDB will have no choice but to give these older players more ice time and burn them out again. If that doesn't sound any good then CBGB could have been the 4th line with a 3rd line built around Josefson, but you can't dress Barch and Janssen as 3rd liners.

You dont get it. CBGB may not be healthy all year and Im sure the top 3 lines will see guys that need a game off here or there hopefully we dont suffer any major injuries. Barch was not brought in to play 82 games. He's also better player than Boulton and should be considered an upgrade to Boulton. Barch and Janssen are not going to be playing all the time. Janssen is also a two way player and could very easily be sent down at some point. Dont equate Barch to Parise. That move wasnt made to replace Parise. Lou even said "You dont replace a Zach Parise".

CBGB's best moments were in the playoffs. Playoff and regular season are not the same game and we cant expect to get the same CBGB we had in the playoffs during the entire regular season. There will be slumps. There will be games where we need to have some muscle in it to counter the likes of the Rags and Flyers who have a plethora of goonery on their teams. There will be times where guys like Carter and Bernier will be needed to play on a higher line.

You're flipping out in JULY and we've got a good team right now that is a Zach Parise short three months before the season begins. We've played well without him before and not too long ago with a lesser team. We didnt have Henrique in the 2nd half of 10-11. We didnt have CBGB in the 2nd half of 2010. And we didnt have PDB in the 2nd half of 2010.

Not exactly true. The Kings were pretty awful even when they had Kopitar and Brown. They started to become successful when they brought in necessary pieces like Scuderi, Stoll, Penner. The Red Wings did do it with home grown talent, but unlike New Jersey, the Wings managed to stay successful while developing that talent by keeping their core together with guys like Draper, Maltby etc.

03-04 Lightning benefitted from drafting and signings. Andreychuk, Khabibulin and St. Louis weren't homegrown.

Same thing with the Canes. They had guys like Doug Weight and Mark Recchi coming into the mix.

Again, read what I wrote. The best teams are a mix of homegrown talent and the right additions.

The Kings dont win sh!t without Quick, Kopitar, Doughty, or Brown. Penner and Stoll were also TRADED.

Those names you're mentioning from the likes of the Lightning were also via trades. St. Louis was released by Calgary and barely even got a chance there. He got a chance with the Lightning. The Canes dont win without Staal or Ward.

Trading is not the same as free agency.

Edited July 9, 2012 by ghdi

[CarpathianForest]

I hope Lou does try to get Semin, Shane Doan, or hell, even Rick Nash (since I'm bored, I'll stick my neck out and do one of those ridiculous sports talk radio caller trade proposals in a separate thread). Of course it all comes down to what, in the case of Semin and Doan, you have to pay, or Nash, what players you have to give up. That's what the debate is about, not whether Lou gets a big name just because.

Like I wrote in my previous post, it's not about the big names, but what players are out there in free agency to play a meaningful role. Signing Janssen and Barch was completely pointless. If anything proves this it was the Rangers/Devils series. We stayed above the goonery, but the Rags couldn't help it with guys like Rupp and Prust. If anything goonery is headed towards the mold of a hybrid goon like a Tootoo or Prust. Someone who can play when need be. But, besides Parise, re-upping goons wasn't out other priority. If you look through Capgeek's list of available free agent forwards there are still plenty that Lou could have signed which would have made me breath a bit easier. Instead he chose to sign two guys who should have chosen different careers.

Furthermore, the idea of home grown talent is a pointless argument to make with concern to the Devils. Besides our goalie and defensive prospects, we have nothing in our system. The only thing we can do right now is go for trades or UFAs, because if we did rely on home grown talent, it would take at least a few seasons to bring up any forwards of note.

You dont get it. CBGB may not be healthy all year and Im sure the top 3 lines will see guys that need a game off here or there hopefully we dont suffer any major injuries. Barch was not brought in to play 82 games. He's also better player than Boulton and should be considered an upgrade to Boulton. Barch and Janssen are not going to be playing all the time. Janssen is also a two way player and could very easily be sent down at some point. Dont equate Barch to Parise. That move wasnt made to replace Parise. Lou even said "You dont replace a Zach Parise".

CBGB's best moments were in the playoffs. Playoff and regular season are not the same game and we cant expect to get the same CBGB we had in the playoffs during the entire regular season. There will be slumps. There will be games where we need to have some muscle in it to counter the likes of the Rags and Flyers who have a plethora of goonery on their teams. There will be times where guys like Carter and Bernier will be needed to play on a higher line.

You're flipping out in JULY and we've got a good team right now that is a Zach Parise short three months before the season begins. We've played well without him before and not too long ago with a lesser team. We didnt have Henrique in the 2nd half of 10-11. We didnt have CBGB in the 2nd half of 2010. And we didnt have PDB in the 2nd half of 2010.

Again, read what I wrote. The best teams are a mix of homegrown talent and the right additions.

The Kings dont win sh!t without Quick, Kopitar, Doughty, or Brown. Penner and Stoll were also TRADED.

Those names you're mentioning from the likes of the Lightning were also via trades. St. Louis was released by Calgary and barely even got a chance there. He got a chance with the Lightning. The Canes dont win without Staal or Ward.

Trading is not the same as free agency.

In my mind trading is almost on par with free agency. You're giving up roster players and potential in picks. It's just as much of a crap shoot as UFAs.

You dont get it. CBGB may not be healthy all year and Im sure the top 3 lines will see guys that need a game off here or there hopefully we dont suffer any major injuries. Barch was not brought in to play 82 games. He's also better player than Boulton and should be considered an upgrade to Boulton. Barch and Janssen are not going to be playing all the time. Janssen is also a two way player and could very easily be sent down at some point. Dont equate Barch to Parise. That move wasnt made to replace Parise. Lou even said "You dont replace a Zach Parise".

CBGB's best moments were in the playoffs. Playoff and regular season are not the same game and we cant expect to get the same CBGB we had in the playoffs during the entire regular season. There will be slumps. There will be games where we need to have some muscle in it to counter the likes of the Rags and Flyers who have a plethora of goonery on their teams. There will be times where guys like Carter and Bernier will be needed to play on a higher line.

You're flipping out in JULY and we've got a good team right now that is a Zach Parise short three months before the season begins. We've played well without him before and not too long ago with a lesser team. We didnt have Henrique in the 2nd half of 10-11. We didnt have CBGB in the 2nd half of 2010. And we didnt have PDB in the 2nd half of 2010.

Again, read what I wrote. The best teams are a mix of homegrown talent and the right additions.

The Kings dont win sh!t without Quick, Kopitar, Doughty, or Brown. Penner and Stoll were also TRADED.

Those names you're mentioning from the likes of the Lightning were also via trades. St. Louis was released by Calgary and barely even got a chance there. He got a chance with the Lightning. The Canes dont win without Staal or Ward.

Trading is not the same as free agency.

In my mind trading is almost on par with free agency. You're giving up roster players and potential in picks. It's just as much of a crap shoot as UFAs.

[ghdi]

If you look through Capgeek's list of available free agent forwards there are still plenty that Lou could have signed which would have made me breath a bit easier. Instead he chose to sign two guys who should have chosen different careers.

Barch and Janssen both serve specific roles!

Your problem is simply that you are impatient. I don't want Lou to make moves for the sake of it.

You may see talent on the UFA board, but why are all these guys still available? There are 29 other teams out there and almost all of them have room to make improvements. The only team that doesnt has the Cup.

Its fvcking July. We have 3 months before the season begins and more than enough time to make a deal between now and the playoff run to make a move. You don't win Cups in Free Agency unless you are one piece away. Even with Zach we were a 6 seed in 4th place in our division.

Edited July 9, 2012 by ghdi

[CarpathianForest]

You dont get it. CBGB may not be healthy all year and Im sure the top 3 lines will see guys that need a game off here or there hopefully we dont suffer any major injuries. Barch was not brought in to play 82 games. He's also better player than Boulton and should be considered an upgrade to Boulton. Barch and Janssen are not going to be playing all the time. Janssen is also a two way player and could very easily be sent down at some point. Dont equate Barch to Parise. That move wasnt made to replace Parise. Lou even said "You dont replace a Zach Parise".

CBGB's best moments were in the playoffs. Playoff and regular season are not the same game and we cant expect to get the same CBGB we had in the playoffs during the entire regular season. There will be slumps. There will be games where we need to have some muscle in it to counter the likes of the Rags and Flyers who have a plethora of goonery on their teams. There will be times where guys like Carter and Bernier will be needed to play on a higher line.

You're flipping out in JULY and we've got a good team right now that is a Zach Parise short three months before the season begins. We've played well without him before and not too long ago with a lesser team. We didnt have Henrique in the 2nd half of 10-11. We didnt have CBGB in the 2nd half of 2010. And we didnt have PDB in the 2nd half of 2010.

Again, read what I wrote. The best teams are a mix of homegrown talent and the right additions.

The Kings dont win sh!t without Quick, Kopitar, Doughty, or Brown. Penner and Stoll were also TRADED.

Those names you're mentioning from the likes of the Lightning were also via trades. St. Louis was released by Calgary and barely even got a chance there. He got a chance with the Lightning. The Canes dont win without Staal or Ward.

Trading is not the same as free agency.

On the other side of the coin Carolina doesn't get to the playoffs without Martin Gerber. The Lightning don't win without Khabibulin. Granted Khabibulin was traded but for quite a bit. I mean with the exception(barely)of Paul Mara those other players didn't pan out, but you never know.

[ghdi]

In my mind trading is almost on par with free agency. You're giving up roster players and potential in picks. It's just as much of a crap shoot as UFAs.

Except its not when you have to deal with a salary cap.

If we bring on the wrong guy in free agency, it can tap cap room that we need to make a potential trade. See Rolston. See The 3 M's. This goes for every team, not just for us as I realize we have cap room, but we also have financial issues.

For every good trade, there is a sh!t one. There are far more crappy UFA pickups than not.

[CarpathianForest]

Barch and Janssen both serve specific roles!

Well I guess this answers the age old question of "How many goons does it take to play on the New Jersey Devils?"

We only needed one guy, not Janssen and Barch.

I'm not being impatient, but Lou has a habit of kind of waiting things out. It seems that he gets caught off guard because of waiting.

[CarpathianForest]

Except its not when you have to deal with a salary cap.

If we bring on the wrong guy in free agency, it can tap cap room that we need to make a potential trade. See Rolston. See The 3 M's. This goes for every team, not just for us as I realize we have cap room, but we also have financial issues.

For every good trade, there is a sh!t one. There are far more crappy UFA pickups than not.

You still gotta deal with the cap issues after a trade. If Lou was concerned with cap he wouldn't have signed two morons like Janssen and Barch.

And I guess you're right about Janssen being a decent two way player. I guess we're lucky with that since Janssen has zero skill with the puck and hence ends up pinned in his zone due to his sh!tty skills.

[Triumph]

That's utter nonsense Tri. You can't prove factually that siging UFAs is worse off than trades or organizational development. For every Scott Gomez signing there's a Zdeno Chara signing. I'll point you to the big UFA of 2011, Ilya Kovalchuk. Although, he was questionable the first half of the 10-11 season, he has vastly improved the Devils.

If you're saying the way to go is through player development then why haven't the Oilers been competitive since 05-06? They are a total free agent dead zone.

The only team that has had overwhelming success with player development in the recent past has been the Penguins and that's cause they continuously tanked their way into some very solid draft classes. Even with that the Pens still can't develop any good wingers for Malkin and Crosby.

Yes, I can. Just do a little thought experiment - consider a new team that signs all the players who were UFA this summer. It might look something like this:

Parise-Jokinen-Parenteau

Hudler-?-Samuelsson

Mitchell-McClement-Tootoo

Moen-Konopka-Asham

Suter-Garrison

Carle-Kuba

Souray-Aucoin

Brodeur

Mason

That team looks okay - no 2nd line center, but I think they'd be a playoff team unless the goaltending really let them down. Trouble is, they'd cost 65.1 million. They'd have cap room, but not much, and if the cap comes down, they're in trouble.

Chara was a great signing, but you forget, he cost 7.5M on a 44M cap. If he signed an equivalent contract now, he'd cost 11.93M on the cap.

Free agents can help, but they are the worst way to build a team. Kovalchuk's helped out, but he has 13 years left on his contract and is coming off a back injury. That contract could be terrible very soon.

[CarpathianForest]

Yes, I can. Just do a little thought experiment - consider a new team that signs all the players who were UFA this summer. It might look something like this:

Parise-Jokinen-Parenteau

Hudler-?-Samuelsson

Mitchell-McClement-Tootoo

Moen-Konopka-Asham

Suter-Garrison

Carle-Kuba

Souray-Aucoin

Brodeur

Mason

That team looks okay - no 2nd line center, but I think they'd be a playoff team unless the goaltending really let them down. Trouble is, they'd cost 65.1 million. They'd have cap room, but not much, and if the cap comes down, they're in trouble.

Chara was a great signing, but you forget, he cost 7.5M on a 44M cap. If he signed an equivalent contract now, he'd cost 11.93M on the cap.

Free agents can help, but they are the worst way to build a team. Kovalchuk's helped out, but he has 13 years left on his contract and is coming off a back injury. That contract could be terrible very soon.

I'm not saying bust the bank with free agent signings. We're not the Rangers.

What I am saying is that signing guys like Barch and Janssen don't help to make us competitive and burn a hole in the pocketbook. Plus, like I posted above, we don't have very many forwards from Albany that can step up right now. I mean, maybe Zalewski and Tedenby, but where do you put them? 4th line with Barch and Janssen. So we go from a playoff team that could run 4 talented lines to a team that can only run 3 talented lines. Please pay attention because "talent" is the optimal word in that last sentence.