December 31st game vs Atlanta

[maxpower]

they could very well make the playoffs. someone has to take the spot from them. and there's a bunch of teams far on the outside already, or heading there.

[DevilinLA]

it was a legitimate offer. it wasn't made 'official' because even the thrashers aren't dumb enough to negotiate through the media in-season.

hey, great. i expect byfuglien to shoot with a better percentage as a defenseman than he did as a forward, that makes a lot of sense. byfuglien is doing way better than i expected him to do on defense, i watched him play there last year and thought he was not good. i don't think he's any better than a sheldon souray type, though - great shot, can work a power play, but not any better than average at even strength.

teams spend way, way more time at even strength than they do on the power play in a given season - right now teams are averaging 3.875 PPs per game, meaning that figuring incredibly conservatively, the average team will spend 635 minutes on the power play in a season. that's only 10 games worth. they spend 10 games on the penalty kill too. that leaves 62 games to be played at even strength. now what's more important?

power play efficacy tends to fluctuate wildly between seasons and in-season. could the thrashers be one of the top teams at the power play? sure, but i wouldn't bet on it.

the entire hockey media is looking for stories, they don't think about the game. they will write stories about how great a team is and then bury them when they're not so great. they're not predictive - they're reactive. if a team starts doing well unexpectedly, as atlanta is, they get stories written about them.

pavelec has played great. but goalies go through streaks like this every year. could he be one of the best goalies in the game? maybe.

atlanta has been lucky with injuries, lucky with their results from top players, and they are still 6th in the conference. they might make the playoffs; they might improve over the season, there's lots of young players there. to think they're a good team, you really have to expect that unprecedented performances will continue.

You might as well say that no teams record means anything based on where they are now, any team can make the playoffs or drop out given a hot or cold streak, as can any player turn his season around or go dead cold. No one is good or bad until we reach April.

All I'm saying is as of right now ATL is a great team. IF we were in the playoffs right now, an effective PP can make a team with an average 5-5 and decent PK game deep.

Totally aside from the Kovi deal.

[Triumph]

they could very well make the playoffs. someone has to take the spot from them. and there's a bunch of teams far on the outside already, or heading there.

not really. season is way too young to make these sorts of claims.

You might as well say that no teams record means anything based on where they are now, any team can make the playoffs or drop out given a hot or cold streak, as can any player turn his season around or go dead cold. No one is good or bad until we reach April.

All I'm saying is as of right now ATL is a great team. IF we were in the playoffs right now, an effective PP can make a team with an average 5-5 and decent PK game deep.

Totally aside from the Kovi deal.

no, that's not what i'm saying. i am saying that teams go on streaks. .500 teams can get on long winning streaks. teams aren't that far apart in the NHL skill-wise. so, okay, atlanta's on a streak - why is that? well, it looks like it's largely because of a hot power play and a hot goaltender. what i am saying is that when teams rely on a power play and a hot goaltender, they're not likely to sustain whatever success they're having over the long haul. goaltenders and power plays tend to cool off. it's even strength play that wins in the NHL, and right now atlanta isn't too hot there.

[CarpathianForest]

not really. season is way too young to make these sorts of claims.

no, that's not what i'm saying. i am saying that teams go on streaks. .500 teams can get on long winning streaks. teams aren't that far apart in the NHL skill-wise. so, okay, atlanta's on a streak - why is that? well, it looks like it's largely because of a hot power play and a hot goaltender. what i am saying is that when teams rely on a power play and a hot goaltender, they're not likely to sustain whatever success they're having over the long haul. goaltenders and power plays tend to cool off. it's even strength play that wins in the NHL, and right now atlanta isn't too hot there.

Atlanta's ranked 11th in the league in even strength.

[NJDevs4978]

I seem to recall the order of events differently.

Anyway, back to what this thread was about before manta hijacked yet another, I can't imagine the fireworks would occur after the game since it's a day game.

It's a 5 PM start, it's already dark around 5 this time of year so by 7:30-8 when the game ends they'll have the fireworks then, I think around Championship Plaza.

it was a legitimate offer. it wasn't made 'official' because even the thrashers aren't dumb enough to negotiate through the media in-season.

No I definitely remember news of that $100 million offer coming just before the trade. It was definitely PR-related though, they needed to get news of that rejected offer out there so they could justify trading Kovy.

[Triumph]

Atlanta's ranked 11th in the league in even strength.

by what, goals for/goals against? you're double counting pavelec's performance here, as well as not accounting for their above-average even strength shooting percentage, which tends to regress toward the mean. by shots for/shots against, they cannot be one of the top teams. unfortunately vic ferrari's timeonice isn't updated yet this season so it's hard to examine closely, but atlanta is 19th in even strength shots on goal FOR per 60 minutes, and worst in the league in even strength shots against per 60 minutes.

has: you're not wrong, but by my brief attempt to google, i couldn't find an official statement from the team. i found a 'sources say' article which was clearly leaked by the team, but nothing definitive.

Edited December 1, 2010 by Triumph

[CarpathianForest]

by what, goals for/goals against? you're double counting pavelec's performance here, as well as not accounting for their above-average even strength shooting percentage, which tends to regress toward the mean. by shots for/shots against, they cannot be one of the top teams. unfortunately vic ferrari's timeonice isn't updated yet this season so it's hard to examine closely, but atlanta is 19th in even strength shots on goal FOR per 60 minutes, and worst in the league in even strength shots against per 60 minutes.

has: you're not wrong, but by my brief attempt to google, i couldn't find an official statement from the team. i found a 'sources say' article which was clearly leaked by the team, but nothing definitive.

I'm just looking at the team stat from NHL.com

The ratio of 5 on 5 goals versuses 5 on 4 goals for Atlanta is 46/20. I don't know where you're getting this idea that their 5 on 5 stinks since they got most of their goals 5 on 5 by nearly 2.25 to 1.

Edited December 1, 2010 by CarpathianForest

[maxpower]

not really. season is way too young to make these sorts of claims.

us and the Isles are already pretty much outside the curve. the curve obviously changes all the time, but right now, 8th is in the 90's.

and you look at what's behind them outside, and you have Ottawa, who is worse than their record, Carolina and Florida, who are mediocre, Buffalo, who is working their way out, but was buried early, and then us, the Leafs and the Isles, all who suck. especially us and the Isles, who have to play at a huge clip to make the playoffs.

[CarpathianForest]

Let's say 94 gets you in. We have 58 games remaining and 18 points so far. We'd have to go 38-20 for the season. It's feasible, but there's a lot more variables involved. There's so many teams now that technically if the Devils lose a game and the teams that are ahead of them and within reach win that puts us back 4 points. I'm not even worried about positions 1-7 in the rankings. It's teams ranked 8-13 and 15 that we have to root for to lose or go cold. That's why I was rooting for Tampa and Colorado last night to win despite having a rooting preference for Toronto and Atlanta. The fact that both Toronto and Atlanta got one point sucks for us.

Look at Buffalo: They've got 21 points. We have to hope they lose the next game they play while we have to win the next two games we play. Let's not hope that Buffalo gets a point then that would only draw us even. If Buffalo wins the next two and we win the next two it's all moot because we're still down three points. So many variables.

Edited December 1, 2010 by CarpathianForest

[DaneykoIsGod]

Only at NJDevs could a thread asking what time a fireworks show would start become another anti-Kovalchuk thread

DISREGARD FIREWORKS

ACQUIRE KOVY-BASH

[CarpathianForest]

DISREGARD FIREWORKS

ACQUIRE KOVY-BASH

Kovy-Bash? Like get some pinatas resembling Kovy?

[Quinn01]

During the national anthem, there are going to be 2 little kids standing on either side of the person who sings that night holding sparklers.....thatll be the fireworks.

[DevilinLA]

not really. season is way too young to make these sorts of claims.

no, that's not what i'm saying. i am saying that teams go on streaks. .500 teams can get on long winning streaks. teams aren't that far apart in the NHL skill-wise. so, okay, atlanta's on a streak - why is that? well, it looks like it's largely because of a hot power play and a hot goaltender. what i am saying is that when teams rely on a power play and a hot goaltender, they're not likely to sustain whatever success they're having over the long haul. goaltenders and power plays tend to cool off. it's even strength play that wins in the NHL, and right now atlanta isn't too hot there.

Oh come on Tri - you are smarter than this and being cagey.

We're 20-25 games in - what determines a streak? 3 games? 5 games, 10?

Is PHI on a streak or for real? What about NJ is it a losing streak or are they really this bad?

How can you determine how long they are likely to sustain success? Do you know Pavelec's future performance? Do you know Kane's ultimate potential?

We all know that the future is uncertain but that doesn't mean that ATL is not a good team.

Based on personnel and coaching right now the future looks bright for them regarding playoffs.

Do they still need a few pieces? Sure, but that was what we thought was the final solution (to a mostly complete team) to the NJ success formula - yet here we are battling it out with bottom-level dwellers like TOR, NYI, and CGY for extra points in a shootout.

I say that that franchise is coming around - purely on the shoulders of Enstr./Buff/Kane alone as its future.

Edited December 1, 2010 by DevilinLA

[MantaRay]

No I definitely remember news of that $100 million offer coming just before the trade. It was definitely PR-related though, they needed to get news of that rejected offer out there so they could justify trading Kovy.

+1

[MantaRay]

Oh come on Tri - you are smarter than this and being cagey.

We're 20-25 games in - what determines a streak? 3 games? 5 games, 10?

Is PHI on a streak or for real? What about NJ is it a losing streak or are they really this bad?

How can you determine how long they are likely to sustain success? Do you know Pavelec's future performance? Do you know Kane's ultimate potential?

We all know that the future is uncertain but that doesn't mean that ATL is not a good team.

Based on personnel and coaching right now the future looks bright for them regarding playoffs.

Do they still need a few pieces? Sure, but that was what we thought was the final solution (to a mostly complete team) to the NJ success formula - yet here we are battling it out with bottom-level dwellers like TOR, NYI, and CGY for extra points in a shootout.

I say that that franchise is coming around - purely on the shoulders of Enstr./Buff/Kane alone as its future.

I am sure Tri will put up some imaginary stat about shooting percentage which clearly indicates that NJ actually leads the league in scoring and that the standings are wrong.

[RSC]

DISREGARD FIREWORKS

ACQUIRE KOVY-BASH

Well at least the disregard/acquire meme lives on

[Triumph]

We're 20-25 games in - what determines a streak? 3 games? 5 games, 10?

it doesn't matter. whether or not they're on a streak or not, why are they successful? it sure isn't at preventing shots at even strength - they are last in the league at this so far. let's look at what playoff teams were 20th or worse over the last 3 years, who were also 20th or worse in ES shots for:

09-10: MTL, COL. montreal was the top special teams team in the league.

08-09: none

07-08: MTL, PIT.

it's really hard to win this way.

Is PHI on a streak or for real? What about NJ is it a losing streak or are they really this bad?

How can you determine how long they are likely to sustain success? Do you know Pavelec's future performance? Do you know Kane's ultimate potential?

PHI is for real. NJ is on a losing streak. Pavelec is probably pretty good but we have to wait 2 years to determine if he is. Kane is going to be an excellent player but he's not likely to be a star this year. Happy?

Based on personnel and coaching right now the future looks bright for them regarding playoffs.

Do they still need a few pieces? Sure, but that was what we thought was the final solution (to a mostly complete team) to the NJ success formula - yet here we are battling it out with bottom-level dwellers like TOR, NYI, and CGY for extra points in a shootout.

I say that that franchise is coming around - purely on the shoulders of Enstr./Buff/Kane alone as its future.

byfuglien is a UFA in 2012. enstrom is a UFA in 2013. i think atlanta is still stuck in their cycle of going from bad to okay, but we'll see how pavelec plays.

[maxpower]

Let's say 94 gets you in. We have 58 games remaining and 18 points so far. We'd have to go 38-20 for the season. It's feasible, but there's a lot more variables involved. There's so many teams now that technically if the Devils lose a game and the teams that are ahead of them and within reach win that puts us back 4 points. I'm not even worried about positions 1-7 in the rankings. It's teams ranked 8-13 and 15 that we have to root for to lose or go cold. That's why I was rooting for Tampa and Colorado last night to win despite having a rooting preference for Toronto and Atlanta. The fact that both Toronto and Atlanta got one point sucks for us.

Look at Buffalo: They've got 21 points. We have to hope they lose the next game they play while we have to win the next two games we play. Let's not hope that Buffalo gets a point then that would only draw us even. If Buffalo wins the next two and we win the next two it's all moot because we're still down three points. So many variables.

all you can do is win your games and worry about your own point total. if you make the point total you need, you'll get in. looking at the standings and what teams A-H do will just drive you insane.

there's a limit to how high the bar will be, just as there's a limit to how low it'll be. right now it's 91-92.

which would be pretty much normal.

[Derek21]

Atlanta's not that good and they will probably finish out of the playoffs. Again.

They're not that bad either. Hawks East is working so far. Big Buff leads all D in goals (10) and points (27) while also pacing the league in game-winners (5). Ladd has evolved into a solid contributor and is their captain. Eager fills his role well and Sopel adds a vet presence to a young blueline that boasts Enstrom and Bogosian. Pavelec has assumed the No.1 goalie backstopping them to a six-game win streak. There's a lot to like with emerging second-year power wing Evander Kane, promising Russian rook Alexander Burmistrov plus key components Peverley and Bergfors. They're four over new NHL style without anything from Antropov, Little and Bogosian. Craig Ramsay has gotten the most out of Stewart, who previously was a bust with Florida. They also boast a solid fourth line in Thorburn, Slater and Boulton.

Since trading Kovalchuk, they've become more of a team instead of just relying on one superstar. They probably are at least a year away. In a weak East, this scrappy bunch could sneak in.

[Derek21]

I'm just looking at the team stat from NHL.com

The ratio of 5 on 5 goals versuses 5 on 4 goals for Atlanta is 46/20. I don't know where you're getting this idea that their 5 on 5 stinks since they got most of their goals 5 on 5 by nearly 2.25 to 1.

I wouldn't call them a great even-strength team yet. Their D is suspect and can be attacked. Pavelec has covered up a lot which is what happens when you have a hot goalie. Since I picked him up in my league, he's been on a roll. Hopefully, that continues. The Thrashers will need more from Antropov, Bergfors (6 goals) and Little. If they come up, that could offset some of the slumps a few of the overachievers might have.