Jump to content

Let's start a pool of where Brodeur will end up


roomtemp

Recommended Posts

NHL on the Fly recently touched on that same notion. By the time Marty turned 29, he had just concluded the 2001 season. At that point, he had won 286 games. Marc Andre Fleury has won nearly 300 games, and is still only 29 years old. Assuming Fleury plays 'till he's Marty's age.. that would leave him with 14 more seasons. If he averages 28 wins per season until his career ends, that would give him nearly 400 more wins. The trick to the whole thing is: Is he part of the long-term plans for Pittsburgh. Coming off a season where he won 39 games, and having posted a Sv% of .915 --I can't see why they wouldn't bring him back.

do u reallythink that m.a.f will have a hof career from this point on though? or win 28 games at 42 yrs old? even on a team w.crosby & malkin, thats still a tough task

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've said it before, but I give MAF a pretty good shot at being second overall in career wins by the time his career ends, but it's probably going to take him another 550-600 games to get there.  Has to stay healthy and has to keep playing on good teams. 

 

The playoff issues are going to weigh heavily in what Pittsburgh decides to do with him...I'm not sure how to read into Pitt's reluctance to re-sign him.  I know he's been helped by the team in front of him, and good teams can help a goalie's glamour numbers (like win totals) greatly as long as he plays decently, but the fact is his win total to date and the age at which he's done it puts him in select company, which means he'll generate some interest if he makes it to UFA...just not sure how much teams are willing to pay him...he may have a Brodeur-like win total at this point in his career, but I don't think teams see greatness when they see Fleury.  If he ever finishes second in career wins, you'll hear a lot of "yeah, buts" when people look back on his career.

 

Here's the tentative 2015 UFA goalie class...of course, some of these guys may sign before they ever get to UFA.  I posted the list because it shows Pitt and MAF might not have much choice but to stick with each other:

 

http://www.capgeek.com/free-agents?year_id=2015&team_id=-1&position_id=G&fa_type_id=2

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've said it before, but I give MAF a pretty good shot at being second overall in career wins by the time his career ends, but it's probably going to take him another 550-600 games to get there.  Has to stay healthy and has to keep playing on good teams. 

 

The playoff issues are going to weigh heavily in what Pittsburgh decides to do with him...I'm not sure how to read into Pitt's reluctance to re-sign him.  I know he's been helped by the team in front of him, and good teams can help a goalie's glamour numbers (like win totals) greatly as long as he plays decently, but the fact is his win total to date and the age at which he's done it puts him in select company, which means he'll generate some interest if he makes it to UFA...just not sure how much teams are willing to pay him...he may have a Brodeur-like win total at this point in his career, but I don't think teams see greatness when they see Fleury.  If he ever finishes second in career wins, you'll hear a lot of "yeah, buts" when people look back on his career.

 

Here's the tentative 2015 UFA goalie class...of course, some of these guys may sign before they ever get to UFA.  I posted the list because it shows Pitt and MAF might not have much choice but to stick with each other:

 

http://www.capgeek.com/free-agents?year_id=2015&team_id=-1&position_id=G&fa_type_id=2

 

His "yeah buts" come more from the fact that he plays behind a team will usually finish in the top five in goals scored.  It's less pronounced than the goal support someone like Grant Fuhr got, but the principle is the same.  He's also never won a Vezina, and, so far as I can recall, has never even been nominated for one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

do u reallythink that m.a.f will have a hof career from this point on though? or win 28 games at 42 yrs old? even on a team w.crosby & malkin, thats still a tough task

 

When I say 28 wins per season.. I say it in a capricious way. It’s a variable statistic.. ever-changing as Fleury’s career evolves, which makes it an arbitrary number.

There are factors that could go against Fleury.. such as an injury, a lockout, a poor season, etc. If such circumstances were to transpire, it would negatively impact the average wins per-season.. thus; it would raise to a higher number. However, you have to look at both sides of it. MAF is still in his prime.. and if he continues to win 40 games or more over the next couple seasons, then he’s more than halfway to 700, and is still only 31 years old! The average wins per season figure would go down. If he stays durable, keeps in shape, and has a Hasek like career (in the sense of playing ‘till he’s 44 or 45) then the average wins per year figure would again continue to drop.

 

His "yeah buts" come more from the fact that he plays behind a team will usually finish in the top five in goals scored.  It's less pronounced than the goal support someone like Grant Fuhr got, but the principle is the same.  He's also never won a Vezina, and, so far as I can recall, has never even been nominated for one. 

 

..another "yeah but" issue would be the shootout era. Brodeur has over 100 ties... Fleury has 2!

Edited by Beezer34
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

When I say 28 wins per season.. I say it in a capricious way. It’s a variable statistic.. ever-changing as Fleury’s career evolves, which makes it an arbitrary number.

There are factors that could go against Fleury.. such as an injury, a lockout, a poor season, etc. If such circumstances were to transpire, it would negatively impact the average wins per-season.. thus; it would raise to a higher number. However, you have to look at both sides of it. MAF is still in his prime.. and if he continues to win 40 games or more over the next couple seasons, then he’s more than halfway to 700, and is still only 31 years old! The average wins per season figure would go down. If he stays durable, keeps in shape, and has a Hasek like career (in the sense of playing ‘till he’s 44 or 45) then the average wins per year figure would again continue to drop.

 

 

..another "yeah but" issue would be the shootout era. Brodeur has over 100 ties... Fleury has 2!

 

Way too many ifs here.  We saw Marty to continue to collect wins at an insane pace that only really slowed up over his final 4 seasons (86-70-20...his winning%, point%, whatever you want to call it was pretty steady before then...he had a record of 602-324-105-29 through 2009-2010), but that doesn't mean Fleury will follow suit.  It's kind of like the major-league pitcher who seems like a lock for 300 wins and the HOF as he zooms out to his first 150 or so, then the next thing you know, he barely makes it to 200. 

 

It all really comes back to the same thing...if Fleury gets to 500 wins and still looks like he has a lot left in the tank, then we can talk.  Even if he "only" surpassed Roy, even with shootout wins bloating the overall total, that'd still be a hell of an achievement...it would show that he was incredibly durable, at they very least.  But he has a long way to go. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh absolutely. Like I said.. just because he's on pace with Marty, doesn't mean he's going to beat Marty. If he gets under 25 wins for the next two years (or gets a serious injury) it would almost certainly knock him out of contention. But if he's closing in on 500 wins, and is only 36 years old.. the remainder of MAF's career will make for very interesting storytelling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Goalies are going the way of NFL running backs. Unless you have a great, durable one teams seem to be relying more on tandems

This is very true.  However, most running backs are lucky if they play 10 seasons.  Goalies can play up until their early 40s easily, moreso than skaters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

on nhl.com right now:

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=726633&navid=nhl:topheads

 

funny, he says, "I'm really open-minded about the situation I'm looking for, but it's pretty specific..."

 

-really doesn't make any sense and sounds a little stubborn.  but really, all is on par on the Brodeur front.

 

Stubborn? Yep, that's our Marty alright!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is very true.  However, most running backs are lucky if they play 10 seasons.  Goalies can play up until their early 40s easily, moreso than skaters.

 

Well its for different reasons. In the NFL its because they get abused so much that you won't get many years out of a running back compared to other positions. Also its a plus to be young, athletic (compared to an older running) and cheap. Younger guys are faster and most running backs are interchangeable because they just want someone who is fast and stupid enough to be a running back. In the NHL its more that the difference between mid 20s quality through and even into the top 10 isn't as great as it once was.

 

Also so many running backs and goalies can put up great numbers due to being products of systems. Running backs behind a great offensive line and goalies behind a defensive system that you don't have to have the most talented ones to make that system work. In the NHL if you have that one guy you can rely on its such a relief because you don't have to worry every year about who your goalie is going to be or switching in and out the hot hand. Plus if you can trust them in the playoffs that's even better.

Edited by roomtemp
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.