Lou and Sutter are delusional

[Triumph]

How does going 15-7 in overtime mean we got lucky? Those 15 wins were 15 wins, they weren't dirty points. Dirty points are points given when a team loses. We earned every single one of those points.

lol well seeing as how you don't understand statistical variance i should just close the register at this point. you do understand that the devils won't go 15-7 in overtime next year, right? here, i'll set the over/under at 66% - you can have the over, after all, new jersey did BETTER than that this year, it's a cinch! please. new jersey's expectation in overtime is probably more like 12-10. So there's 3 points there. I'm too lazy to dig up the hockey sabermetric links that suggest new jersey played over its head - i'll just say that i think it's true and think sutter did a great job of accentuating strengths while hiding negatives.

So please tell me, which one is it? Or do you not know what the word competence means?

the -14 away from home ignores the +4 at home. +4 at home is competent. however, mottau is the kind of thing that a team is going to expose over the course of 7 games, and he was exposed. he is slow and horrid 1 on 1. that said, he was a passable #4 D. he cannot be back in that role next year or the devils may as well just give the stanley cup to another team.

Let me know when\where I said in any of my posts that Brodeur played and\or had a bad season. I said "he (Marty) playing as much as he did was not an advantage" You're putting words in my mouth dude.

Uh. You said Brodeur had the 2nd most losses in his career and should've been sat more AS A RESULT OF THAT STATISTIC. That statistic is meaningless.

[Masked Fan]

To me, the terms: "Rebuilding & Building" are synonymous. I see how you could've misinterpreted though.

Well, they're not.

building = adding new talent to old talent as you knock away the chaff off your improving team.

REbuilding = having NO old talent left and just adding new talent as you clear out the rubble of your once great team.

[SS#4-Life]

jeez looks like i missed the big battle here huh. reading through this topic is like watching hells angels. looks like a dog fight. i agree the devs were better off not doing anything. this team was just not that good

[Jerrydevil]

lol well seeing as how you don't understand statistical variance i should just close the register at this point.

As a poker player, I certainly understand statistical variance ... but I only like it when it's a hot streak.

Sorry for the hijack.

But I will slightly disagree with Triumph. You can mitigate statistical variance if you're better than the competition. And Marty's very good in the shootout.

[SC Devs Fan]

jeez looks like i missed the big battle here huh. reading through this topic is like watching hells angels. looks like a dog fight. i agree the devs were better off not doing anything. this team was just not that good

To play Devils advocate... then should we have been sellers at the deadline?

[Devil Dan 56]

To play Devils advocate... then should we have been sellers at the deadline?

i'd say no. I think the Devils were the perfect 'middle of the road' team at the deadline. Definitely not bad enough to sell off the team, but just not good enough that they were 'one piece away' either.

[Beezer34]

As a poker player, I certainly understand statistical variance ... but I only like it when it's a hot streak.

But I will slightly disagree with Triumph. You can mitigate statistical variance if you're better than the competition. And Marty's very good in the shootout.

Still trying to figure that response out. I asked for a clarification, I got saber metric statistical variance instead. Tomorrow I'm gonna learn quantum physics to further understand why our powerplay was so ineffective.

Edited May 9, 2008 by Beezer34

[Triumph]

here it is simpler then beezer:

the devils will not go 15-7 in overtime next year. yes, they earned every one of the goals they scored. just as all of alex rodriguez's home runs were hit over the wall last year. but alex rodriguez, even if he had stayed healthy, was very unlikely to repeat that season. what i am saying is that overtime and the shootout are virtually a coin flip, and the devils won 68% of their flips.

Jerry:

I certainly think New Jersey has an edge in OT, but 66% is just not repeatable. I think, and I could be wrong, that Brodeur's shootout save percentage is one of the highest - though going longer in shootouts increases one's percentage and the Devils often win them quick.

Edited May 8, 2008 by Triumph

[Beezer34]

here it is simpler then beezer:

the devils will not go 15-7 in overtime next year.

Thank You Karnack! Tell me, did your saber metric statistical variance predict that the 2007 last place (30th) Flyers would be 4 wins away from the Stanley Cup finals a year later? What was the percentage (over\under) there?

*ALSO: -I want to know the pick 6 numbers for Friday... -who ends up getting the Cup in 2011... -and does Hilary really end up winning?

Edited May 9, 2008 by Beezer34

[Triumph]

with their trade deadline and summer moves it wasn't at all out of the question that the flyers would be in the ECF. it was a question of whether they could gel and whether Biron could hold up.

anyway once again i put it to you - we can bet on whether the Devils' record will be better than 15-7 next year. The last two seasons, New Jersey was 13-9, making their total record in OT since the shootout has been established 41-25. That's 62% - I still think that's a touch high and will come down as Brodeur ages and goalies cheat on Brian Gionta's one shootout move.

so i guess predicting anything is useless and we may as well give up. the devils could win the cup next year or they could finish last. no idea which, it's just totally randomized.

[Beezer34]

jeez looks like i missed the big battle here huh. reading through this topic is like watching hells angels. looks like a dog fight.

...it was a really good topic, until it became deformed... and turned into a last word game. Is there any wonder how he tallied 13,000 posts after reading this exchange?

Edited May 9, 2008 by Beezer34

[Triumph]

Thank You Karnack! Tell me, did your saber metric statistical variance predict that the 2007 last place (30th) Flyers would be 4 wins away from the Stanley Cup finals a year later? What was the percentage (over\under) there?

*ALSO: I need the pick 6 numbers for Friday, who ends up getting the Cup in 2011, and does Hilary really end up winning?

go ahead and have the last word based on this.

[ice dog]

all i gotta say is Rafalski is awesome on the red wings.

why Lou did not lock him up long term before he went UFA is INSANE.

He could have had him cheaper than what the wings gave him...

he would have bit at 4.5 a year for 4 years. the wings insane 5 years at 6 mil would never have been thought of.

watching him excel tonight with the wings just brings it all home...

almost as big a mistake as the 3 M's...

[CRASHER]

Rafalski is like Scottie Pippen in a lotta ways.... when he has great players around him (Stevens, Lidstrom, etc) around him... he looks better... but when he's asked to carry the mail... he trips early and often....

so don't think it's as big a mistake as it's not....

I mean Martin emerging would help, but that's only a good player... not a great one

[SatansDevils]

One of many mistakes Lou has done over the years. Rafalski should have remained here in New Jersey. Lou could have given him $4-4.5 million and he would have stayed. Detroit is over paying him now at $5 million a season.

[ice dog]

One of many mistakes Lou has done over the years. Rafalski should have remained here in New Jersey. Lou could have given him $4-4.5 million and he would have stayed. Detroit is over paying him now at $5 million a season.

they are actually waaay overpaying him at 6,000,000 per season for the next 5 years...

http://nhlpa.com/WebStats/B-RAF-ANTASTIC/overpay28

remember the quotes from rafalski during the season where all he wanted to do was make a deal with the devils...he said it time and again in the star ledger, etc., before he went UFA.

Lou could have offered him 4 years at 4.5 mil a pop and he would have been happy as a pig in sh!t...

I agree crasher, playing with lidstrom makes exponentially better than if he was paired with andy greene...lol!

but still my main complaint is what lou could have signed him for...it's just a shame.

[SS#4-Life]

i gotta say i dont see how lou couldve done anything with this team. if we were better id say maybe. but this team wasnt really that good

[Beezer34]

i gotta say i dont see how lou couldve done anything with this team. if we were better id say maybe. but this team wasnt really that good

...we lost out on a division title by 3 points. Please explain?

[SS#4-Life]

...we lost out on a division title by 3 points. Please explain?

i just feel like we got alot of luck that made us look better than what we were. the shootouts, the 1 goal wins. we were like one of the lest penalized team in the nhl. there was just alot of smoke and mirros that went into it i think

[Beezer34]

Okay okay hang on. Give me a sec to compute some of the rationale here. (just for the sake of sanity)

*The only reason why we finished as well as we did this season, is because of

Edited May 9, 2008 by Beezer34

[CRASHER]

Wow, you managed to sum up EVERY LAST POST in the Hell forum since last July 1.... one helluva job!! :clap:

Okay okay hang on. Give me a sec to compute some of the rationale here. (just for the sake of sanity)

*The only reason why we finished as well as we did this season, is because of

[Beezer34]

No Crasher, I

[halfsharkalligatorhalfman]

I don't agree with the premise that OT is a coin flip, but I certainly agree with the premise that a good OT record is not a very good indicator of a team's success in the playoffs, where shootouts do not exist and the game does not become 4 on 4. If you throw out OT games you should have a better idea of how good a team is in the playoffs given how they performed over the course of the year.

Now as to should the Devils be sellers at the deadline, I believe they were in first place at the time, and its pretty difficult to justify selling off players to a team working as hard as the devils were. However, I think any team's best chance to improve in the long run given the crazy structure of the league now is by selling at the deadline. Every deadline there are 25 teams who are looking to improve and 5 teams looking to sell. If you are one of the few teams looking to sell you might get lucky and get a haul.

Or you could take a chance and sell Cristobal Huet for a 2nd round pick and get burnt in the postseason. Thats the risk you take.

Edited May 9, 2008 by halfsharkalligatorhalfman

[RowdyFan42]

No Crasher, I

[Pepperkorn]

...we lost out on a division title by 3 points. Please explain?

Want an explanation? No team should have to work that hard the entire season. You're burnt by the time playoffs come around.

This team has heart and character -- but many components lack skill. Personally I think it's our D -- most think it's our Offense. To my mind if the D is in place as it should be, then the Offense has time to relax and score.

The System as it was has made our offense more comfortable and confident playing defensively. The defense is sucking the o thinks Hey we can help with that! Because THAT used to be the short coming on the team - back when it was a stacked team that is.

Well rounded is something you shoot for AFTER you've honed your position. This team is a vague well rounded mess basically. Defense tries to step up and help out with the Offense -- meanwhile, they've let the defence go all to hell, so the offense has to step in a cover their asses. This results in the loss valuable trust (TEAMWORK folks) the offence cannot do it's job because defense isn't doing theirs. Without REAL defencemen, no one can commit to offence. EDIT: The system has blinded the offence to this lack of trust - they therefore take full responsibility on their individual shoulders. This whole Marty is the whole team so help him out thing wasn't working either. It's making for more self-deprecation & stress than productive assistance.

I'd say the biggest problem management has is that it cannot articulate offense well enough. Everyone gets Defense (except our dmen - but that's neither here nor there right? ) Offense no one can say. BUT IT CAN BE SAID! Goal tending you can SAY it's intuitive etc and so forth -- but Marty and Caron have proven it's technique - solid building blocks you can count on. Defensive play has been solidly build technically speaking... (except within our actual core Defence - but is that so vital? ) so our offense sits back on it's defensive technique -- and without DMEN it's not enough -- they have no time to even play with offensive technique.... no one says anything but cliches and by the LOOKS of it -- THAT is what they are counting on -- it clicking - not pressing - patient hockey - CMON FELLAS! It's more than cliches!! SUTTER has to get this across. Defense is their safety blanket but it's USELESS IF NO ONE CAN PLAY DEFENSE ON D!!!

so that is my whole take.

the team held on by over playing for far too much of the season - they had ZERO fun the majority of the time. That's not a good solid talented team my friend - no matter WHAT the numbers tell you.

how may times do I have to write this stuff -- please tell me your fvcking ignoring me once in a while guys - seriously. Throw me a bone - dont even need to say you disagree since that obviously requires you to explain WHY you do. Which you can't because I'M RIGHT! If Scott Stevens told you you'd kiss his ass and say that's what you'd be trying to say all along (and Thanks for backing me up here Scotty -- you're USELESS to me unless your on the ice - lazy effer - what's wrong with sitting on your ass surfing the web a little huh? Probably looking at stupid Martha Stewart how to and DYI sites... weenie )

Edited May 9, 2008 by Pepperkorn