Posted 20 December 2012 - 04:49 PM
Obvious caveat applies -- any team could go and pull a 2012 Baltimore Orioles, because baseball is weird like that -- but .500 or better for the 2013 Mets is very unlikely. Without doing some projections, they're probably a 70-72 win team on paper right now. If they kept Dickey and added a couple solid role players around him, maybe there's an argument to be made. But as of right now, a ton of things would need to break right (which is what I guess you're saying?). But the problem with that logic is about 25 other teams can say the same thing ("if everything breaks, we could be .500 or better.").
I honestly don't know what to expect from Santana. He's still a poor bet to give you innings and he was complete and utter disaster from June-on last season.
If Harvey has a solid first full season and Wheeler and d'Arnaud make successful transitions to the Majors, I'll be really happy.
Sandy has done a nice job of stocking the farm system in the meantime -- it's gone from bottom 3rd of the league to probably top 3rd -- but anyone who saw the payroll situation when Omar was canned knew post-2013 would be the true rebranding of this club. So much financial flexibility will exist then.
Edit: CR - here's a list of 2014 free agents: http://www.mlbtrader...ree-agents.html
Not a great list in 2014. They may be better off going the trade route, when the time comes.
Daniel, the problem with Omar Minaya in his later years with the Mets is that he basically built the team around "if" scenarios. I can remember them clearly..."If John Maine and Oliver Perez pitch like they did in 2007...if this guy does this and if this guy does that"...he basically built his teams in a "If everything goes 100% perfect, this team could win 87 games and be a wild card contender!" way. Of course, when you build a house of cards on a muddy foundation in a windy area, it's going to collapse.
Sure, the Mets could overachieve, but it's highly unlikely, and to Sandy's credit, he's not trying to sell us on the "if" scenarios Omar loved so much. He won't admit to punting away 2013, and I can't blame him, but most Met fans know there's no way this team is winning 80 games unless something crazy happens...like Jon Niese becoming a 20-game winner or something unforseen like that. But it looks like pieces are coming that should be able to help the Mets fairly soon, and more pieces that can help once the team is competitive. That's why we can stand another year of irrelevance...it really does feel like good things are coming in the not-too-distant future.
Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 20 December 2012 - 04:50 PM.
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