How success kills good teams (and why S. Gionta needs benching)

[SterioDesign]

Going to agree with Stereo and JWomp on this one. Numbers can't tell the whole story and CBGB has been a great line for NJ. JJ hasn't done anything and people want to believe so bad he will be the next John Madden that they don't seem to want to look at reality. I like JJ and I hope he can be the great player that he has the potential to be, but until he proves he is making progress there is no point in getting too hopeful. While his hockey sense is much better, the kid is on par with Teddy as far as his physical ability. He falls all the time and loses puck battles in the corner. He needs to get stronger or more aggressive. JJ is already bigger than Gionta and Gio does a much better job than him in the physical department. 

 

exactly. But thats what he does... when he wants to pump some players tires cause he feels like it or cause he really want him to succeed, if the stats are not going that players way he'll go with the "he's doing so many things thats not showing on the stat sheets" but then the other way around for another player he'll go strictly with like 95% of black on white stats with no context at all to build a case against him lol

 

oh some people's children...

Edited February 17, 2013 by SterioDesign

[Triumph]

Tri you're definitely OBSESSES with that shooting % stat and its seriously ridiculous. lol its seriously laughable. not saying it's a bad stat it can somehow point out stuff but it's like +/- you can't take it for money cause it's often not the players fault at all he could have just changed and was rushing to get to the play and they get scored on. seriously it's RIDICULOUS to put that much into those stats. ridiculous

 

why don't you get that ALL plays have different context and that every shots have a different level of probable success and that it's not reflecting at all the play of ALL players on the ice?

 

is Parise the best player in the league because he's leading with shots? Clarkson the 2nd best player in the league? by your logic they are

 

"Stephen Gionta is killing this team." wow... 

 

still waiting for you to explain what our mighty JJ is doing in Albany right now also

 

You don't understand anything I post about, apparently.

 

No, Zach Parise is not the best player in the league because he leads the league in shots.  I would never say that, or anything like it.

 

But you've got to keep the puck in the opponent's end and keep it out of yours, and while the Gionta line has some great shifts, they're just not very good at doing that regularly.  It means they will end up being minus players.  Which is fine, if you're being given difficult assignments and being started a lot in your own zone.  The Gionta line is doing the former but not the latter, but they're still getting absolutely reamed.  

[SterioDesign]

You don't understand anything I post about, apparently.

 

No, Zach Parise is not the best player in the league because he leads the league in shots.  I would never say that, or anything like it.

 

But you've got to keep the puck in the opponent's end and keep it out of yours, and while the Gionta line has some great shifts, they're just not very good at doing that regularly.  It means they will end up being minus players.  Which is fine, if you're being given difficult assignments and being started a lot in your own zone.  The Gionta line is doing the former but not the latter, but they're still getting absolutely reamed.  

 

I do understand what you're trying to say but im still 110% convinced that you're putting WAY too much into those stats even Lemaire said that it's no big deal if the other team is staying a whole shift in your end as long they don't have great scoring chances and that you're containing them and under control.

 

but im asking for the 3rd time. What about those JJ numbers? you really seem to use the stats just when they are saying what you want them to say.

[hystyk28]

Gionta should not be on th PK. He uses a really short stick, which makes it way easier for PP to move the puck so easily. Unless, you play, you don't realize the tactical advantage it is for the other teams.

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[Daniel]

You don't understand anything I post about, apparently.

 

No, Zach Parise is not the best player in the league because he leads the league in shots.  I would never say that, or anything like it.

 

But you've got to keep the puck in the opponent's end and keep it out of yours, and while the Gionta line has some great shifts, they're just not very good at doing that regularly.  It means they will end up being minus players.  Which is fine, if you're being given difficult assignments and being started a lot in your own zone.  The Gionta line is doing the former but not the latter, but they're still getting absolutely reamed.  

How much time should a third/fourth line unit that gets tough assignments be spending in the offensive zone? Or, can you give me another third/fourth line that gets tough assignments that does significantly better?

Gionta is what he is. A well above average fourth liner who at times look out out his league on the third line. That's more than you can say for most players that have the same role.

[devilsrule33]

Why can't stats back up what you see? If someone asked me has the Gionta line been in their end more or in the other team's more this year. I would say I am pretty sure their own, as numerous times I have seen them pinned in their own end for a long period of time making me extremely nervous. And here is Tri giving me the stats that back up what I have seen.

The Gionta story is a great one. But take away the career AHLer finally getting in his first start in his late 20s. Take away the fact that he is 5'6, and take away the fact his last name is Gionta, and he is just another guy who played well above his ahead for 15 games or so that is in a role way to big for him now. I love his effort too. But effort can't make up for a ton of limitations. Like I said before, I think there is a role for him in the NHL, but it shouldn't be the one the team is giving him now.

Edited February 17, 2013 by devilsrule33

[Devils731]

Gionta's line has been struggling for many games now. Just spending many shifts running behind the puck while the other team cycles and creates great chances.

My eyes see that obvious thing, the numbers just confirm it.

[Triumph]

I do understand what you're trying to say but im still 110% convinced that you're putting WAY too much into those stats even Lemaire said that it's no big deal if the other team is staying a whole shift in your end as long they don't have great scoring chances and that you're containing them and under control.

 

but im asking for the 3rd time. What about those JJ numbers? you really seem to use the stats just when they are saying what you want them to say.

 

Because you can't do that.  Scoring chances and Corsi converge over a long enough time period, and there've been enough people tracking scoring chances now to assert that confidently.  So yeah, you can go 1 or 2 shifts a game like that, 5 or 10 games where you're getting way more scoring chances than your Corsi would indicate or vice-versa - but overall, the idea behind Corsi is that it's supposed to represent zone time, and the Devils spend way too much time in their own zone when that line is on the ice.

 

Josefson's numbers have improved considerably, but just about any young player is going to lose confidence when 2% of the shots go in for him and 15% go in for his opponents.  I'm not that surprised about that move and Josefson should be back and should be fine.

[Triumph]

How much time should a third/fourth line unit that gets tough assignments be spending in the offensive zone? Or, can you give me another third/fourth line that gets tough assignments that does significantly better?

Gionta is what he is. A well above average fourth liner who at times look out out his league on the third line. That's more than you can say for most players that have the same role.

 

He is not a well above average 4th liner.  At all.  That's the narrative and I don't know where it comes from, I guess 40 NHL games of being lucky will do that.

 

Gionta and his line is not always matched against top players - DeBoer's not a strict linematcher.  It's a problem when the matchup you want at home is the one that your opponent wants when he's at home (which we saw with Crosby).  I understand where DeBoer's coming from here, but it doesn't add up.

[DH26]

He is not a well above average 4th liner.  At all.  That's the narrative and I don't know where it comes from, I guess 40 NHL games of being lucky will do that.

 

Gionta and his line is not always matched against top players - DeBoer's not a strict linematcher.  It's a problem when the matchup you want at home is the one that your opponent wants when he's at home (which we saw with Crosby).  I understand where DeBoer's coming from here, but it doesn't add up.

 

there's a reason he wasn't in the league at all pretty much until the last game last year. It seems (just from my eye test) that Carter/Bernier are the ones who are establishing whatever forecheck that line gets and Gionta's just kinda there. I'd put Loktionov with them but we all know that's not gonna happen 

[Zubie#8]

He is not a well above average 4th liner.  At all.  That's the narrative and I don't know where it comes from, I guess 40 NHL games of being lucky will do that.

 

Gionta and his line is not always matched against top players - DeBoer's not a strict linematcher.  It's a problem when the matchup you want at home is the one that your opponent wants when he's at home (which we saw with Crosby).  I understand where DeBoer's coming from here, but it doesn't add up.

I think a lot of us completely understand, but I think a lot of us also want to see a more competent third line to see what CBGB could do in more of a 4th line role. They are getting too much ice time right now and a lot of times against top lines. But I do agree that I do not like Gionta on the PK. I want Gionta down to under 10 minutes a game, no more 13-16 minutes games like he has been getting. This will all come when we get a good third line hopefully with an acquisition or when Zubrus comes back.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Zubie#8

[RangersSuck23]

My opinion sucks but I agree that Gionta hasn't got increasingly better like carter and bernier, and Gionta doesn't deserve a 3rd line center and ESPECIALLY a first pk role. The pk role I find absolutely ridiculous

[Daniel]

He is not a well above average 4th liner.  At all.  That's the narrative and I don't know where it comes from, I guess 40 NHL games of being lucky will do that.

 

Gionta and his line is not always matched against top players - DeBoer's not a strict linematcher.  It's a problem when the matchup you want at home is the one that your opponent wants when he's at home (which we saw with Crosby).  I understand where DeBoer's coming from here, but it doesn't add up.

What? Give me even 15 fourth liners that are better than him? Otherwise, you're all over the place. An admission that he's had success over 40 games (or virtually his entire NHL career) but that it's "luck". He's not always matched up against the other teams top players, but then pointing to how bad he does against Crosby, et al. On the other hand, Josefson is not producing, but that's just bad luck.

The whopper of course is that what DeBoer is doing doesn't quite add up. HELLO, the same formula got the Devils to the SCF last year, and has them in first place right now. Obviously what he's doing adds up, or adds up a lot more than anything anyone else has to offer.

I have no particular attachment to Gionta. Find someone who's better and I'll happily send him back to the AHL. Hell, I would love it if were him instead of Josefson or even Tedenby being sent to the AHL. I love it when our first round picks succeed. But anyone with a pair of eyeballs realizes that right now anyway, Gionta belongs with the team more than any other available replacement, including Joesfson.

[Joonas #6]

Well I'm glad you're not our GM, because Gionta is one of the hardest working players on the team and he definitely deserves to be here.

 

I agree. Gionta's alright. And the Devils are 9-3-3 so I guess they're doing something right, and those numbers are more important than some shooting % stats in my opinion.

[sundstrom]

it would not surprise me that, come playoff time, assuming health, this is the forwards we're putting out there game 1:

 

ponikarovsky-zajac-kovalchuk

elias-henrique-clarkson

zubrus-loktionov-butler

matteau/carter-josefson-bernier

 

but i agree that CBGB got manhandled against the flyers to the point that I questioned what the hell deboer was doing.

[SterioDesign]

the problem is that they've been a 3rd line for awhile. Like i said to me that line is an above average 4th line but a very borderline or below average 3rd line... it's a thin line but still

[Triumph]

What? Give me even 15 fourth liners that are better than him? Otherwise, you're all over the place. An admission that he's had success over 40 games (or virtually his entire NHL career) but that it's "luck". He's not always matched up against the other teams top players, but then pointing to how bad he does against Crosby, et al. On the other hand, Josefson is not producing, but that's just bad luck.

 

Name a fourth line player who isn't an enforcer, I'll give you one who is better than Stephen Gionta.  Just name anyone.  Craig Adams.  Scott Nichol.  Jeff Halpern.  Keith Aucoin.  Etc. etc.

 

It is luck.  The Devils have shot like 13% with Gionta on the ice.  You cannot sustain an NHL career doing that.  
 

The whopper of course is that what DeBoer is doing doesn't quite add up. HELLO, the same formula got the Devils to the SCF last year, and has them in first place right now. Obviously what he's doing adds up, or adds up a lot more than anything anyone else has to offer.

 

Hahaha.  No other response to this but that.  I hated this in the playoffs too but it happened to work out.  Until, of course, the Devils played a team that was good at puck possession and they got completely destroyed in all facets.  I haven't even addressed the Salvador issue which is almost certainly more pressing than the Gionta one.

 

I have no particular attachment to Gionta. Find someone who's better and I'll happily send him back to the AHL. Hell, I would love it if were him instead of Josefson or even Tedenby being sent to the AHL. I love it when our first round picks succeed. But anyone with a pair of eyeballs realizes that right now anyway, Gionta belongs with the team more than any other available replacement, including Joesfson.

 

Anyone with a pair of eyeballs sees him and his line getting pounded nightly, which many people have come into the thread to say.  I'd love for sundstrom's lineup to be a playoff lineup, but there'll be injuries and Gionta will be in there, somehow.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Triumph

[Daniel]

Name a fourth line player who isn't an enforcer, I'll give you one who

 

 

Hahaha.  No other response to this but that.  I hated this in the playoffs too but it happened to work out.  Until, of course, the Devils played a team that was good at puck possession and they got completely destroyed in all facets.  I haven't even addressed the Salvador issue which is almost certainly more pressing than the Gionta one.

 

 

.

So they lost in the SCF to a team that steam rolled everyone (losing 2 of those games in overtime when having chances to win but hitting posts at the end of the game), but it just "happened to work out."

It all comes down to whatever my stats don't predict must be luck.

[nessus]

I haven't even addressed the Salvador issue which is almost certainly more pressing than the Gionta one.

 I would like to hear your thoughts on this, too.

[SterioDesign]

 I would like to hear your thoughts on this, too.

 

save some time, just go look at the shot % and you'll have his exact thoughts right there. 

[maxpower]

I don't *think* he's an NHL player but there's a bit of hyperbole to this.    He shouldn't be killing penalties, but they do need a 3rd unit guy.   This is where losing Zubrus hurts them.   You have Kovy, Zajac, Elias, Henrique, Carter to kill penalties.   After that it's a tad dodgy.

 

Here's the thing.   He's a better fourth line player than what they had been trotting out there in the past.    I think our fourth line had 1 or 2 goals tops for the entire season before they reformulated the line for the playoffs, featuring putrid Janssen, and Boulton, who may have been the worst player in the league last season, not named Nino Niederreiter.

 

He's overplayed but they have to align themselves in a way where someone is more productive before he can be played less.     I think this team is alot like last years, where it has warts and the warts will have to be worked on as they go along.

[Ollie McKraut]

All Gionta does is score goals and win games

[Triumph]

So they lost in the SCF to a team that steam rolled everyone (losing 2 of those games in overtime when having chances to win but hitting posts at the end of the game), but it just "happened to work out."

It all comes down to whatever my stats don't predict must be luck.

 

The Devils got absolutely dominated.  Here you go:  http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/18/2012-stanley-cup-final-scoring-chances-zone-exits

 

Anyway, I've given in and started arguing like you, which is a mistake on my part.  DeBoer is a good coach.  I like most of what he does.  But that doesn't mean that I'm going to like everything he does, or that because he does certain things that I like, I have to forgive his doing things that I don't like.  I don't think playing Stephen Gionta is a good idea - and I certainly think his use on the PK is a mistake.  As for max's post, they were using Ponikarovsky there in these first two games, and of course they sent Mathieu Darche home who might've been a help in that regard.  I know they don't like using top forwards there if they can avoid it, but there has to be a solution.  (And it might help if they stopped using Gionta off faceoffs, like they used Kovalchuk last year).

[DH26]

The Devils got absolutely dominated.  Here you go:  http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/18/2012-stanley-cup-final-scoring-chances-zone-exits

 

Anyway, I've given in and started arguing like you, which is a mistake on my part.  DeBoer is a good coach.  I like most of what he does.  But that doesn't mean that I'm going to like everything he does, or that because he does certain things that I like, I have to forgive his doing things that I don't like.  I don't think playing Stephen Gionta is a good idea - and I certainly think his use on the PK is a mistake.  As for max's post, they were using Ponikarovsky there in these first two games, and of course they sent Mathieu Darche home who might've been a help in that regard.  I know they don't like using top forwards there if they can avoid it, but there has to be a solution.  (And it might help if they stopped using Gionta off faceoffs, like they used Kovalchuk last year).

 

I dunno how people watching those games didn't see the Kings with constant possession beating the hell out of the devils and completely controlling the game. The games the Devils won, they just got lucky, the Kings still should've won those games too. Game 1 w/ the post-Devils were getting no possession and they weren't shooting when they had any whether it was due to there not being shots or them willingly not shooting for whatever reason. 

 

Rangers aren't a good possession team, they like to sit back and let teams get scoring chances-the only reason they got to the ECF was bc they played intentionally bad possession Washington and not that good Ottawa and had to do it in 7 games. The Devils were the first decent team they played. The Flyers series is the anomaly but whatever happened there I dunno. The Kings were the best possession team in the league post-Carter trade (I think, I'm sure Tri knows) and they continued it through the playoffs they weren't just a random finals team like 03 Anaheim. And if Gionta's hurting possession more than somebody in the AHL like Josefson when he wakes up, send him down no matter the narrative of him being the underdog 

[Daniel]

The Devils got absolutely dominated. Here you go: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/18/2012-stanley-cup-final-scoring-chances-zone-exits

Anyway, I've given in and started arguing like you, which is a mistake on my part. DeBoer is a good coach. I like most of what he does. But that doesn't mean that I'm going to like everything he does, or that because he does certain things that I like, I have to forgive his doing things that I don't like. I don't think playing Stephen Gionta is a good idea - and I certainly think his use on the PK is a mistake. As for max's post, they were using Ponikarovsky there in these first two games, and of course they sent Mathieu Darche home who might've been a help in that regard. I know they don't like using top forwards there if they can avoid it, but there has to be a solution. (And it might help if they stopped using Gionta off faceoffs, like they used Kovalchuk last year).

Well that's fine of course, re DeBoer. And more or less I feel the same way. But again, there's this tirade about one player without saying who he ought to be replaced with or putting things in context.

Re the SCF, my point wasn't that it was an evenly matched series. It wasn't. You made a categorical statement that somethng DeBoer was doing wasn't adding up. A team that gies to the SCF finals and is currently in first place after losing arguably its best forward makes that statement demnstrably untrue.

DeBoer is a bg reason why the team has succeeded. And success is measured in winning games, not time of posession, shots, or anything else.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Daniel