2013 NHL Draft

[Triumph]

Josh Bailey and Karl Azner are assuredly not "real good NHL players".  Neither of them have had much to do with their teams' success, at least above replacement, much more so with Bailey.  And for what the Devils need their equivalents would be huge disappointments.  Karl Azner is a top four defenseman.  We have plenty of those.  Josh Bailey is a third line forward.  Outside of Kovlachuk and Elias, the Devils have plenty of those guys as well.  If the Devils go either of them for nothing, the improvement would be marginal, at best.

 

Regarding the return, as I keep saying I'm not a scout and am only going on what I've read.  Mr. Debbi Downer, Corey Pronman, ranks Nischuskin ahead of Barkov, and raves about both.  The assumption is that you'd be getting one of those two with the number 5 pick.  (Some have speculated that Tampa will take Nischuskin assuming Jones is gone, and that you might even end up with Drouin).

 

So far as what the defense would look like without Greene, there would be a step back in the short term.  I understand.  But among Merrill, Urbom, Gelinas, you could expect at least one of them to be an adequate replacement in two years, and perhaps this year with some luck.  That's not including Severson, who I suppose is still a couple of years away from the NHL.  You could also make a reasonable bet that Fayne and Larsson will improve to the point that you could take the sting out of losing Greene.

 

The ISS head scout just labeled Nichushkin an 'enigma'.  Again, I think he's a strong player from what I've seen of him (Super Series, World Juniors), but he doesn't have a 'sure thing' pedigree.  No prospect is a sure thing, but I think you'd want one if you are going to trade a player of Greene's caliber to get one.

 

We shouldn't expect Fayne to improve significantly.  He might, but there's no reason to expect it, he's 26 and has 3 years as a pro.

 

I'm not sure were I in the Islanders shoes that I would trade Josh Bailey for Adam Henrique (not considering service time considerations).  Bailey came on very strong at the end of the year and is a fine player, but of course since the Islanders threw him into the league at 18 and he's now had several average seasons, he's a bust and no good.

[Daniel]

I don't think you guys know how good Alzner is. He's not "serviceable" he's a hell of a defenseman and if you get someone that good here, no matter what position he plays, you take him. If you think Nurse/whoever's that good for sure, you jump on him. Alzner's better than anyone we have now probably except maybe Greene

 

And when you only have a few picks, you don't use them all to trade up 4 spots when the player you take there is probably not much better if at all better than the guy you're getting at 9

 

Prospect risks being what they are, who you'd be getting at 5 is going to be much better than who you're getting at 9, if not by an order of magnitude, especially if you're talking about Nurse.  Everyone you talk to says that, among the forwards, there's not that much separating Drouin, MacKinnon, Barkov and Nishushkin.  From team scouting executives to third party types like hockeyprospectus, all are called future stars, and each of them would be in the running for the number 1 pick in your average draft.  After these players, and maybe you can add Lindholm, you get into the territory of typical prospect risk -- for lack of a better term. 

 

Also, Alzner got twenty minutes a game on a team that gave up more goals than the Devils and probably had better goaltending than the Devils.  Whatever he is, he is not Chara, Seabrook, Doughty, Keith, Letang, McDonough, Kronwall or Karlson, who are the number 1 defeseman on the other teams that made it to the second round, and who are the types of defensemen a team the Devils could draft and feel made their team a lot better when the smoke clears.

[Daniel]

The ISS head scout just labeled Nichushkin an 'enigma'.  Again, I think he's a strong player from what I've seen of him (Super Series, World Juniors), but he doesn't have a 'sure thing' pedigree.  No prospect is a sure thing, but I think you'd want one if you are going to trade a player of Greene's caliber to get one.

 

We shouldn't expect Fayne to improve significantly.  He might, but there's no reason to expect it, he's 26 and has 3 years as a pro.

 

I'm not sure were I in the Islanders shoes that I would trade Josh Bailey for Adam Henrique (not considering service time considerations).  Bailey came on very strong at the end of the year and is a fine player, but of course since the Islanders threw him into the league at 18 and he's now had several average seasons, he's a bust and no good.

 

You are twisting what I'm saying about Bailey.  I did not say he is a "bust and no good", and not even in so many words.  To this point though, he is a disappointment for a number 9 pick.  That he came into the league at 18, cry me a river.  Josefson made a much better Devils team as a 19 year old.  But hey, if it turns out that we had a shot to get a first line forward, feel free to say we made out just as well because we got a good defensive forward. 

[DJ Eco]

When has a Russian player or prospect NOT been labeled "enigmatic"?

[Zubie#8]

I thought Alzner was absolutely AWFUL in the first round against the Rags.

 

EDIT: whoops I was thinking of Erskine haha nvm.

Edited June 26, 2013 by Zubie#8

[SterioDesign]

I'm with Daniel on this.  The Devils rarely pick in the top-10 (..with the these two years being an exception, I guess), they need to take advantage.  They NEED to try and get a special player.  Not a serviceable one.

 

im with you on this. Thats pretty much all we have in NJ and in our prospect pool "serviceable guys" except maybe 2-3 guys. At some point you need game changers

[CarpathianForest]

It's not just the fact that we've got a rare draft position, Lou has to quit spending money on the Steve Sullivans and Cam Janssens. He's gotta move some pieces and bring in something from the market. Kovalchuk is the only outstanding player we have. The rest of the team is average to downright bad. Most of the recent Stanley cup winners have at least two players that are top level talent.

[devilsrule33]

Sorry to change the subject slightly, but just realized the Rangers don't pick to the 65th pick. That's disappointing that Sather escapes thunderous boos on TV (and that late into the draft, from the crowd too).

Edited June 26, 2013 by devilsrule33

[Derlique]

I think there's an obvious shift in team philosophy. With an uncertain financial future and aging players on the way out the Devils are building a big, young D. I foresee a Nashville and Phoenix-esque team that doesn't give up a lot of chances but doesn't necessarily give them up. Although we don't have sure fire young offensive stars we know Josefson, Henrique and Mateau should be at least serviceable in the future. Unless they breakout in the next few years, they shouldn't be too expensive in the future.

Enter our first round pick. We could swing for the fences and choose Shinkaruk or Domi, but I think Lou likes "safer" picks. Horvat has Mike Richards/Patrice Bergeron upside and will face tough competition. He probably has the greatest chance of having a lengthy NHL career in the range of 8-15.

[caron14]

Depend on who we draft... many believe that nichuskin is nhl ready... so if we draft him at 5 bingo...

 

Sean monahan could be our pick at 5 (if we trade with carolina...)

[Triumph]

You are twisting what I'm saying about Bailey.  I did not say he is a "bust and no good", and not even in so many words.  To this point though, he is a disappointment for a number 9 pick.  That he came into the league at 18, cry me a river.  Josefson made a much better Devils team as a 19 year old.  But hey, if it turns out that we had a shot to get a first line forward, feel free to say we made out just as well because we got a good defensive forward. 

 

Josefson 'made' (by make, he was an injury callup) a cap-strapped team with 0 depth.  He's going to be a good player, but please don't use that as an example.

 

A disappointment for a #9 pick is a guy who's not capable of playing in the NHL, which there are lots of scattered among top picks, and that it's entirely possible that someone like Shinkaruk or even Nichushkin is.

Edited June 26, 2013 by Triumph

[njdevsftw]

Would it be plausible to move Greene or Fayne to get another 1st rounder?

[Onddeck]

Would it be plausible to move Greene or Fayne to get another 1st rounder?

not if its not another top 10 pick.

 

and not if its Greene.  Fayne, absolutely

[MadDog2020]

Sorry to change the subject slightly, but just realized the Rangers don't pick to the 65th pick. That's disappointed that Sather escapes thunderous boos on TV (and that late into the draft, from the crowd too).

I wouldn't put it past those jerk-offs to trade into the first round by pawning off some sh!tty roster player on someone. Sather always seems to find patsies who- for reasons beknownst only to God- are willing to make a horrible trade to help him out.

[Derlique]

Would it be plausible to move Greene or Fayne to get another 1st rounder?

Devils aren't rebuilding so no

[DH26]

I wouldn't put it past those jerk-offs to trade into the first round by pawning off some sh!tty roster player on someone. Sather always seems to find patsies who- for reasons beknownst only to God- are willing to make a horrible trade to help him out.

 

Remember when the dumbass pre-Yzerman Lightning had a handshake deal to trade him Stamkos like 3 months after they drafted him? Yeah. 

[Triumph]

I wouldn't put it past those jerk-offs to trade into the first round by pawning off some sh!tty roster player on someone. Sather always seems to find patsies who- for reasons beknownst only to God- are willing to make a horrible trade to help him out.

 

The Rangers are out of assets they can deal.

 

Would it be plausible to move Greene or Fayne to get another 1st rounder?

 

Certainly not Fayne, and probably not Greene.  Only way NJ is getting another first rounder is by dealing with a team like Calgary or Columbus.

[Derlique]

Tri- you never know. There may be a GM dumb enough to take on Girardi or Del Zotto

Edited June 26, 2013 by SMantzas

[TheRedStorm]

Devils aren't rebuilding so no

 

Who really knows what this team is doing? I'm a firm believer that they will operate under an internal cap and they will not spend over this cap until the debt is paid down to a level that allows them to spend more. Debt happens in business, it's refinanced and the debt is paid down at the expense of employees and possibly in day to day operations and growth, development, etc, etc. You continue to maintain the best way possible to continue a business until the time comes to operate "normally" again. That's the way it works in everyday life so why do people think this isn't the way the Devils will operate?  

[Daniel]

Josefson 'made' (by make, he was an injury callup) a cap-strapped team with 0 depth.  He's going to be a good player, but please don't use that as an example.

 

A disappointment for a #9 pick is a guy who's not capable of playing in the NHL, which there are lots of scattered among top picks, and that it's entirely possible that someone like Shinkaruk or even Nichushkin is.

 

Now you are talking nonsense.  A team that drafts consistently in the 10 to 6 range that only has a bunch of players that are "capable of playing in the NHL" to show for it will always be drafting there because that team won't be any good.  Steve Bernier and Ryan Carter are capable of playing in the NHL.  Even if you don't take into account plausible alternatives, any GM that told you he wasn't disappointed because he got one of those players at number 9 would be considered a clown.  

 

Or how about this, imagine if Lou traded the number 9 pick for, I don't know, Cal Clutterbuck, a perfectly capable NHL player.  You can tell me how much he "drives play" all you want, but, if you were being honest at all, you would be screaming that Lou has lost his mind. 

[Devils731]

Or how about this, imagine if Lou traded the number 9 pick for, I don't know, Cal Clutterbuck, a perfectly capable NHL player.  You can tell me how much he "drives play" all you want, but, if you were being honest at all, you would be screaming that Lou has lost his mind.

 

 

When did Cal Clutterbuck start driving play?  The problem with trading for Clutterbuck, ignoring the fact that he doesn't fit what you were going for, is that you lose out on all the mysterious upside that drafted players have and you lose out on RFA seasons.

 

I think disappointment was the wrong word, but there are lots of middle-ish round picks who only become 2nd/3rd line type guys.  If there wasn't then the NHL would have way more stars than slots they could play in.  So a guy who just ends up having a nice solid NHL career isn't ideal but it certainly wouldn't be unusual. 

Edited June 26, 2013 by Devils731

[MadDog2020]

Tri- you never know. There may be a GM dumb enough to take on Girardi or Del Zotto

That's what I was thinking- some moron GM who's team needs help on the blue line will see Del Zotto or Girardi (more likely Del Zotto) as an immediate upgrade and do something stupid. I could see it happening, there are some really stupid GM's out there.

[SterioDesign]

Josefson 'made' (by make, he was an injury callup) a cap-strapped team with 0 depth.  He's going to be a good player, but please don't use that as an example.

 

A disappointment for a #9 pick is a guy who's not capable of playing in the NHL, which there are lots of scattered among top picks, and that it's entirely possible that someone like Shinkaruk or even Nichushkin is.

 

to me "in this deep draft" a disappointment would be a player not eventually being a solid top 6 forward (and i wouldnt feel like im pushing thaaaaat much saying top 3) or a top 4dman playing in ALL situations in the long run.

[Daniel]

That's what I was thinking- some moron GM who's team needs help on the blue line will see Del Zotto or Girardi (more likely Del Zotto) as an immediate upgrade and do something stupid. I could see it happening, there are some really stupid GM's out there.

I don't think Del Zotto is fooling the dumbest GM out there. Trading something like the number 27 pick for Girardi wouldn't be wise, but not totally unreasonable. However stupid a GM might be, anyone that values his job or his team's welfare probably is aware of the stupidity of Mike Milbury and doesn't want to be known as the next one.

[Triumph]

The Rangers don't have any legitimate defense prospects, so them trading Del Zotto or Girardi would be a nightmare for them.  They are already down Sauer and quite possibly Staal

 

Now you are talking nonsense.  A team that drafts consistently in the 10 to 6 range that only has a bunch of players that are "capable of playing in the NHL" to show for it will always be drafting there because that team won't be any good.  Steve Bernier and Ryan Carter are capable of playing in the NHL.  Even if you don't take into account plausible alternatives, any GM that told you he wasn't disappointed because he got one of those players at number 9 would be considered a clown.  

 

Or how about this, imagine if Lou traded the number 9 pick for, I don't know, Cal Clutterbuck, a perfectly capable NHL player.  You can tell me how much he "drives play" all you want, but, if you were being honest at all, you would be screaming that Lou has lost his mind. 

 

Because GMs also don't know how to think probabalistically.  Josh Bailey probably represents the 50th percentile or so of 9th overall picks.  Here, I'll extend a band between 7 and 11, and go over the drafts since 1998 to 2009:

 

1998:  Malhotra, M. Bell, Rupp, Antropov, Heerema (1 out of 5 became a 'top 6 forward' - Bell was very briefly, maybe)

1999:  Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Mezei, Saprykin (0 of 5 became a top 6 F/top 4 D)

2000:  Jonsson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakubov, Vorobiev (0 of 5)

2001:  Komisarek, Leclaire, Ruutu, Blackburn, Sjostrom (I'll be generous and call this 3 of 5)

2002:  Lupul, Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom, Ballard (Again, generous, 3 of 5)

2003:  Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, Kostitsyn, Carter (5 of 5, again, being generous)

2004:  Olesz, Picard, Smid, Valabik, Tukonen (1 of 5, generous)

2005:  Skille, Setoguchi, Lee, Bourdon, Kopitar (2 of 5, generous)

2006:  Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard, Frolik, Bernier (jury's out on Bernier, I'm calling this 1.5 out of 5)

2007:  Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby, Sutter (2 of 5)

2008:  Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Hodgson, Beach (Generously giving 3.5)

2009:  Kadri, Glennie, Cowen, Paajarvi, Ellis (2.5 out of 5)

 

So that's 24.5 out of 60 players who became top 4 D or top 6 Fs, and I pretty much gave everyone who was marginal a pass.  This draft is supposed to be stronger, but again, you really can't go overrating a pick this high, it is by no means a sure thing, and if the Devils come out of it with a 2nd/3rd line player, it's not a disappointment, nor is it a triumph.