Jump to content

Photo

Mark Fayne


  • Please log in to reply
117 replies to this topic

#1 thefiestygoat

thefiestygoat

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,195 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 10:28 PM

I wanted to make a post on Mark Fayne since he seems to draw a lot of negative opinions from fans. As I've watched the games this year, I've felt like he was one of the steadiest defenders the Devils have had. Sure he has had some forgettable plays and bad games, but so has every other defensemen for the Devils. I wanted to take a look at advanced metrics to see if they could back up my eyes' assessment of his play thus far. Below is a simple explanation of some of the metrics I'm going to use.

Corsi - The difference in shots attempted by the player's team and the shots attempted against the player's team in 5 on 5 situations.

Relative Corsi (Corsi Rel) - Measures how effective a player is in driving possession, relative to the rest of his team. It measures his raw EV Corsi relative to the raw EV Corsi of his team when he is off the ice.

Quality of Competition (QualComp) - The measure of how good the opposition is that the player is facing when he's on the ice. A higher score (above 0) represents tougher competition, a lower score (below 0) represents weaker competition.

A look his numbers in 5 on 5 situations:

30 GP 16.11 TOI/60 .021 QualComp .150 QualTeam .362 Corsi Rel QoC -.883 Corsi QoC 2.291 Rel QoT 1.579 Corsi QoT 6.2 Corsi Rel 4.35 Corsi ON -1.82 Corsi OFF 49.3% OZone% 47.6 Fin OZone%

Fayne ranks 17th in the league amongst defenseman who have played 30 games with a 6.2 Corsi Rel. He leads Devils defensemen in this category besting Tallinder (5.0), Larsson (3.0), Greene (-1.2), Salvador (-5.2), and Volchenkov (-8.2).

Fayne is the Devils 3rd biggest minutes eater amongst defensemen in 5 on 5 situations with 16.11 per game, below Larsson (17.51) and Tallinder (17.39), above Greene (15.14), Salvador (14.85), and Volchenkov (13.17). This is also good for 4th amongst the entire team.

He faces the 2nd highest quality of competition amongst the defensemen (Tallinder's .024 is above him) though he does have the 2nd highest quality of teammates (below Larsson's .239). His on-ice corsi is a team high 4.35.

Fayne, along with Salvador has a 49.3% offensive zone start, below Larsson (54.3%) and Greene (50.8%), above Tallinder (47.4%) and Volchenkov (44.3%). He finishes 47.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, below Greene (56.8%) and Larsson (54.1%) - though both Larsson and Greene start more of their shifts in the offensive zone. He outproduces Salvador (46.3%) in this category though its close. Fayne also outproduces Tallinder (45.7%) and Volchenkov (42.6%) though they don't have as favorable a zone start as he does.

In terms of scoring from the Devils defense, Fayne leads the team with 3 goals (.37 goals per game), is tied 3rd with 4 assists (.37 secondary assists per game - 2nd on the team), and is 3rd in points with 7 (his .74 points per game ranks 2nd amongst the defensemen).

The bottom line is Fayne logs a decent amount of even strength minutes against tough competition, is effective in his own end, and does a solid job of driving the play towards the opponents zone. The Devils defense corps may not produce a lot offensively but he's been one of the contributors in that regard. Having the chance to play with Tallinder has certainly helped his numbers but I think this guy deserves more credit than a lot of fans have given him this season. There is no doubt he deserves to be a starting NHL player, not an AHL player as some fans have made him out to be. After Tallinder, who also seems to catch some heat around here, Fayne has been the Devils 2nd best defenseman this year.

For more information about these advanced metrics check out the following sites: Understanding Advanced Stats, Behind the Net, and Behind the Net - Full look at the Devils defense.

Special thanks to Triumph whose helped me learn about these metrics.
  • 2

RIP Pat Burns -- RIP Alexander Vasyunov and Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
Winner of the 2008 Sergei Brylin Award for Most Underrated Poster
Co-Winner of the 2011 Scott Bertoli Award for Best Minor League Poster, Winner of the 2012 Scott Bertoli Award


#2 Steven M.

Steven M.

    Assistant Coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,011 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 10:36 PM

Nice post. I agree Mark has been pretty steady.
  • 0

#3 Jas0nMacIsaac

Jas0nMacIsaac

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,360 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 10:37 PM

He is clearly the best defensmen based on metrics and based on viewings.
  • 0
A true leader is one who knows when to step aside for others to lead.

#4 Ollie McKraut

Ollie McKraut

    Senior Devil

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 865 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 10:41 PM

Fayne Factor in full effect. Mark's been holding it down.
  • 0
Send us back to hell,
we've had out fill of heaven,
give us back our sins,
deadly one through seven

#5 Devils731

Devils731

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,471 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 10:45 PM

Visually I thought he looked good. I'm glad the numbers backed that up.
  • 0
Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

-Anchorman

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

-Anonymous

Keeper of Section 212-213's wayward step

#6 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,213 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 11:25 PM

I've tried to get into these stats before since I'm a junky with advanced baseball stats... Maybe now I will.

It's fun to toy around with some of this stuff. I'm guessing Yannick Weber (Montreal) is really bad? One of the highest OZone% among defensemen and sub-0 quality of competition and yet a negative Corsi and Relative Corsi. This narrative also fits Derek Morris.

Impressive to see Tallinder have 2nd best Corsi among Devils' defensemen despite facing the toughest competition and lowest OZone%. Also has the 2nd highest TOI/60.

Edited by nmigliore, 14 December 2011 - 11:25 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#7 Vic Rattlehead18

Vic Rattlehead18

    All-Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,497 posts

Posted 14 December 2011 - 11:37 PM

I love Fayne. Def our best defenseman. Yeah I said it.
  • 0
Devils.

#8 ATLL765

ATLL765

    Assistant Coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,163 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:23 AM

There's been a couple posters on here that for some reason have just been constantly complaining about how he's been playing awful and that he should be scratched in favor of just about anybody. I don't understand at all what these people are seeing that bothers them so much. I don't get into the advanced stats at all, but from what I've seen by watching the games, he's played solid in all 3 zones, has made good first passes out of our zone, can rush the puck up ice well, gets shots through to the net and can contribute offensively better than Tallinder, Salvador and Volchenkov have so far.

I think he and Tallinder have been our most consistently solid defense pairing so far this season. Larsson has been up and down, Volchenkov hasn't really impressed me yet and Salvador hasn't shown me anything to make me think this won't be his last year with the team, but Fayne has been nothing but outstanding for a 5th round pick that no one really knew anything about until last year.

Edited by ATLL765, 15 December 2011 - 12:24 AM.

  • 0

#9 Bryan

Bryan

    Senior Devil

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 613 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:33 AM

I gave Fayne a lot of grief last season on this very board and at home. It was so bad when they'd mention his name my wife would say"isn't that the one you don't like who's always messing up something?" and she doesnt even watch the games.

But I will gladly admit that he has become one our best D men, if not the most consistent at least.
  • 0
Posted Image of Zach Parise's McFarlane Figure!

NEW JERSEY In keeping with the fact they are the Devils, New Jersey actually went with a villain by the name of Lex Lou-Lamoriello, an evil genius who finds ways to get around the salary cap until he is stopped in his tracks by Bett-man.

#10 iamtheprodigy

iamtheprodigy

    All-Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,970 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 01:53 AM

Other than a few rocky games towards the start of the season, Fayne has looked very solid to my eye and the numbers do seem to support this. Thanks for assembling the stats.
  • 0

#11 SterioDesign

SterioDesign

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,716 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 03:36 AM

All i have to say after reading all this....

Mark Fayne, would you bang my sister and let me be your child's uncle?
  • 0

www.SterioDesign.com

 


#12 DaneykoIsGod

DaneykoIsGod

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,187 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 09:32 AM

Visually I thought he looked good. I'm glad the numbers backed that up.


+1

Thanks for compiling and posting, fiesty!
  • 0
Posted Image

"I don't like those Rangers fans from New Jersey." - Jim Dowd

#13 DevsMan84

DevsMan84

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,782 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:11 AM

There's been a couple posters on here that for some reason have just been constantly complaining about how he's been playing awful and that he should be scratched in favor of just about anybody. I don't understand at all what these people are seeing that bothers them so much. I don't get into the advanced stats at all, but from what I've seen by watching the games, he's played solid in all 3 zones, has made good first passes out of our zone, can rush the puck up ice well, gets shots through to the net and can contribute offensively better than Tallinder, Salvador and Volchenkov have so far.

I think he and Tallinder have been our most consistently solid defense pairing so far this season. Larsson has been up and down, Volchenkov hasn't really impressed me yet and Salvador hasn't shown me anything to make me think this won't be his last year with the team, but Fayne has been nothing but outstanding for a 5th round pick that no one really knew anything about until last year.



I too do not get where the people who are saying Fayne should be scratched or sent down are coming from. I think he has been quite solid this season.
  • 0

#14 Pepperkorn

Pepperkorn

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 18,407 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:21 AM

Whew... I don't get the Fayne hate at all ... but I'm not sure it's REAL, you know? I mean look how many people are agreeing with you here.

It's not sarcastic either right? :unsure:
  • 0

I'm here for the party


#15 Triumph

Triumph

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,515 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:40 AM

It's at times like this I wish Lou was the kind of GM who would negotiate contracts in-season, because maybe Fayne could be bowled over a 4 year, 2.2M per kind of deal.
  • 0

http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
 


#16 CarpathianForest

CarpathianForest

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,099 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:57 AM

Fayne is the real deal. Remember this was a guy called up on an emergency basis last year. He wasn't really expected to be anything other than a stop gap. I remember last year when he was first announced in the lineup. People on the forum were like, "Fayne who? Never heard of him."
  • 0

screenshot-sml-40.jpg
 


#17 NJDevs4978

NJDevs4978

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,076 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:00 PM

The problem I have with these sabremetric stats in hockey (CORSI, Fenwick, QualComp) is that nobody other than a select 'few' seem to understand not only what they are but how you come about them. At least with the baseball sabremetrics anyone can get what WAR means and how it applies, even if you don't entirely understand how it's calculated. Plus hockey doesn't have a Billy Beane, that's made the sabremetric stats essential. The only time I 'ever' see them referenced is here.

Plus in hockey things seem a little more random, one of the stats I saw referenced was % of time in the offensive zone...well that can be affected by coming out for a faceoff in the offensive zone, no? Or getting more PP time than say, Volchenkov. At least in baseball everyone gets their AB's and everyone gets their 27 outs.

Edited by NJDevs4978, 15 December 2011 - 12:01 PM.

  • 0
"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

The New Jersey Devils win Stanley Cups everywhere:
-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#18 Jas0nMacIsaac

Jas0nMacIsaac

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,360 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:07 PM

The problem I have with these sabremetric stats in hockey (CORSI, Fenwick, QualComp) is that nobody other than a select 'few' seem to understand not only what they are but how you come about them. At least with the baseball sabremetrics anyone can get what WAR means and how it applies, even if you don't entirely understand how it's calculated. Plus hockey doesn't have a Billy Beane, that's made the sabremetric stats essential. The only time I 'ever' see them referenced is here.

Plus in hockey things seem a little more random, one of the stats I saw referenced was % of time in the offensive zone...well that can be affected by coming out for a faceoff in the offensive zone, no? Or getting more PP time than say, Volchenkov. At least in baseball everyone gets their AB's and everyone gets their 27 outs.


This is because you have never researched all the stats available.
  • 0
A true leader is one who knows when to step aside for others to lead.

#19 Triumph

Triumph

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,515 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:11 PM

The problem I have with these sabremetric stats in hockey (CORSI, Fenwick, QualComp) is that nobody other than a select 'few' seem to understand not only what they are but how you come about them. At least with the baseball sabremetrics anyone can get what WAR means and how it applies, even if you don't entirely understand how it's calculated. Plus hockey doesn't have a Billy Beane, that's made the sabremetric stats essential. The only time I 'ever' see them referenced is here.


That's because hockey GMs are more secretive, as in this interview:

http://www.fearthefi...wilson-part-two

The NHL will never reach the point of baseball, literally everything in baseball is mathematizable and they're getting to the point of analyzing individual pitches and swings and so forth.

WAR is totally esoteric compared to anything that hockey people have at their fingertips. Also, Don Cherry has ranted about the Corsi statistic and it's been mentioned on HNIC in other contexts. It's 5 or 10 years away from being regularly in the mainstream media, but I think we'll see it there eventually. I see BABIP and OPS and all sorts of stuff I never would've imagined 5 years ago.
  • 0

http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
 


#20 sundstrom

sundstrom

    Hall of Famer

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,251 posts

Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:14 PM

It's at times like this I wish Lou was the kind of GM who would negotiate contracts in-season, because maybe Fayne could be bowled over a 4 year, 2.2M per kind of deal.


eh, he's still restricted again so he's not going anywhere - unless you think someone is offer sheeting him to something outrageous which i don't see. the devils have defensive prospects that they're going to try and get in the lineup - urbom, merril, taormina, burlon, etc. yes, salvador's departure will open up one spot. so will foster. even removing fayne from the equation, they still are going to have:

tallinder
volchenkov
greene
larsson

that leaves 2 spots open. fayne has obviously proven he's getting one of them but i don't want to go oduya here before we have to and regret it.
  • 0

"This team was never the same once we lost Patrik Sundstrom"- Lou Lamoriello


20082719943.png
_________________________________________________________________
“They’re the ones that makes it happen,” Lemaire said. “It’s not us. It’s not me. It’s not the other guy. It’s not the guy before. It’s not the guy after. It’s them. And they have to take care of business.”
-
"I guess I just miss my friend" (#28)





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users