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#61 DevsMan84

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 12:39 PM

I've been watching his blocks, giveaways, takeaways, and TOI (which he's been receiving a lot of) all season long... but, really, I've just been watching him.
Here's the thing; I'm a die hear sabermatrician, so the arguments about quantitative measurements and lessening reliance on opinions really hit home. And, he's certainly improved since October (which is easy, since he couldn't have been worse in October).

It's just... we're talking about hockey, which is a terrible sport to attempt to model statistically, and what's worse is that were talking about a defenseman, which makes the majority of stats utterly useless. Corsi is a passable stat to use in order to get a feel for forwards, but it's a horrendous stat to evaluate defensemen with, especially defensemen who are supposed to have an offensive touch like Fayne is. It totally skews what happens from all of those missed shots from the point, and it completely misses the breakout pass problems that is a huge part of Fayne's game as is one of the biggest areas where he's been hurting us this season.

Interestingly, I think he actually had a better game than usual last night.

But, whatever. He's supposed to be super-talented or something, so I don't realistically expect to change anyone's opinion. A couple of people who are Fayne supporters seem to be the more outspoken critics of Tallinder (based on one big giveaway that lead to a shorthanded goal, as far as I can tell), which is just silly to me.



Please point to a single post here where someone is saying that he is or supposed to be super-talented. I see a lot of saying he is solid and above average, but no one here is making him out to be the next Lidstrom.
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#62 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 01:12 PM

Please point to a single post here where someone is saying that he is or supposed to be super-talented. I see a lot of saying he is solid and above average, but no one here is making him out to be the next Lidstrom.


Here you go:

Yeah, he is quickly becoming the most reliable defenseman on the team, in my opinion. He plays like a veteran and rarely makes the wrong decision. I'll admit tonight wasn't a great game for him, but every other night, he's quite possibly our best defenseman. I really wonder what type of player he will be a year or two from now.


There's others, but nessus was kind enough to oblige to your request just before you asked it! :)
You'd think he was the second coming of Paul Coffee or Scott Niedermayer, to hear some of you guys in this thread tell it.
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#63 DevsMan84

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 01:22 PM

Here you go:


There's others, but nessus was kind enough to oblige to your request just before you asked it! :)
You'd think he was the second coming of Paul Coffee or Scott Niedermayer, to hear some of you guys in this thread tell it.


Haha That is a terrible example and weak one at best and you know it.

Saying he is becoming our most reliable defenseman on the team does not in any way shape or form equates someone saying he is the next coffey. That is just your interpretation that is warped by your hatred of him

Edited by DevsMan84, 03 January 2012 - 01:24 PM.

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#64 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 02:05 PM

I don't hate him. That' just your warped interpretation from being overly fond of the guy. ;)
I don't get the where the "most reliable" impression is coming from at all, though. Actually, I suspect that it's more from who he's been paired with rather than his own play, but I'm not a mind reader so who knows. If reliability is what's actually important, then we should be talking about Salvadore (of course, he's the stay at home type, so people only really see him on TV in situations where we can get hurt... that's the only explanation I can come up with for people bashing him, at least. Well, that and apparently we have the worst defense corp in the history of the game right now.)

Honestly, I think we have too many "puck-moving" or "offensive" defensemen all of a sudden. Adding Larsson to the mix put us over the top, since now the Devils have Larsson, Greene (who will be back... eventually), Fayne, and Taormina, along with Tallinder and Foster who are somewhere in between "stay at home" and "offensive". Not having enough of these guys was a big problem a couple seasons ago, but it seems that the Devils have fixed that whole situation in a hurry.
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#65 Triumph

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 02:29 PM

It's just... we're talking about hockey, which is a terrible sport to attempt to model statistically, and what's worse is that were talking about a defenseman, which makes the majority of stats utterly useless. Corsi is a passable stat to use in order to get a feel for forwards, but it's a horrendous stat to evaluate defensemen with, especially defensemen who are supposed to have an offensive touch like Fayne is. It totally skews what happens from all of those missed shots from the point, and it completely misses the breakout pass problems that is a huge part of Fayne's game as is one of the biggest areas where he's been hurting us this season.


What? How does it miss breakout pass problems? If you have a bad breakout, it's more likely that the other team will be making the next shot attempt. Corsi doesn't miss that at all.

I don't really consider hitting the net for defensemen that repeatable a skill among guys who have 1 shot on goal per game like Fayne does, but if someone can filter out arena bias and show me that it is, I'll believe it. I imagine for someone taking only 120 shot attempts that there's going to be a decent amount of year to year variation (and things like e.g. a shot that deflects off a player and is still a shot on goal versus a shot that hits off a player and goes wide). I will also not believe that things like missed shots on goal are detectable via the eye test.

Edited by Triumph, 03 January 2012 - 02:30 PM.

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#66 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 02:55 PM

well, I know that you think Corsi is a good stat. I think it's deceptive, at best. We're not going to convince each other to change opinions, so I'm not going to even try. There is: Corsi Numbers, which I saw relatively recently, that has a passable, uh... refutation (I guess) of Corsi, but...

What I do find a bit odd is that yourself and others who like citing corsi stats in support of Fayne, would and are saying things like "I don't really consider hitting the net for defensemen that repeatable a skill...". I agree completely with the idea expressed there, which makes me wonder why corsi is being held up as something to look at. It's all a bit strange, to me.
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#67 Triumph

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 03:04 PM

well, I know that you think Corsi is a good stat. I think it's deceptive, at best. We're not going to convince each other to change opinions, so I'm not going to even try. There is: Corsi Numbers, which I saw relatively recently, that has a passable, uh... refutation (I guess) of Corsi, but...


Haha, that's a terrible refutation.

What I do find a bit odd is that yourself and others who like citing corsi stats in support of Fayne, would and are saying things like "I don't really consider hitting the net for defensemen that repeatable a skill...". I agree completely with the idea expressed there, which makes me wonder why corsi is being held up as something to look at. It's all a bit strange, to me.


I don't really understand your meaning here. I don't like Corsi much myself and use Fenwick whenever possible. The reason why I like Fenwick over shots % is two-fold - it's a larger sample, and it ferrets out a decent part of arena bias in shot counting. Inducing missed shots isn't a skill at the team level.
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#68 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 03:22 PM

Haha, that's a terrible refutation.


Now you're just being obstinate! hehe

No, seriously, I know what you're saying with "I don't really understand your meaning here."
We seem to have slightly different paradigms here. Oh well.
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#69 mouse

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 05:40 PM

There's others, but nessus was kind enough to oblige to your request just before you asked it! :)
You'd think he was the second coming of Paul Coffee or Scott Niedermayer, to hear some of you guys in this thread tell it.


Saying he's the most reliable player on our crappy defense isn't saying he's a superstar. He's a second pairing guy, who should be for a long time. That he's playing our toughest minutes is a testament to the youth/mediocrity of our blue line. IMO he's still a little behind Tallinder, but those 2 are head and shoulders above the rest (though neither has Larsson's upside).
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#70 CarpathianForest

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 06:01 PM

Now you're just being obstinate! hehe

No, seriously, I know what you're saying with "I don't really understand your meaning here."
We seem to have slightly different paradigms here. Oh well.


Fayne has done very well for a guy who had only 16 AHL games under his belt before being called up to the big time. I don't know why you don't see that. In my opinion, that fact and the fact that he gets monster minutes that only some of your most veteran D gets throws stats out the window.
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#71 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 09:54 PM

Saying he's the most reliable player on our crappy defense isn't saying he's a superstar. He's a second pairing guy, who should be for a long time. That he's playing our toughest minutes is a testament to the youth/mediocrity of our blue line. IMO he's still a little behind Tallinder, but those 2 are head and shoulders above the rest (though neither has Larsson's upside).


He's a 5th or 6th defenseman at best, who's still got a ton to learn. The second pairing thing comes from exactly what you said: "our crappy defense"

Fayne has done very well for a guy who had only 16 AHL games under his belt before being called up to the big time. I don't know why you don't see that. In my opinion, that fact and the fact that he gets monster minutes that only some of your most veteran D gets throws stats out the window.


This is the problem. We need him on the NHL team, and the Devils are historically a powerhouse on defense, so therefore he must be great. It's selection bias, pure and simple.

In the meantime, he's been costing us turnovers all season, most of which lead directly to goals (last nights bad pass leading to a givaway and a short handed goal against being the most recent example).

So, yea... you guys go right ahead hoping that he's a great player. Maybe in 3-4 seasons he will be... maybe.
In the meantime, he sucks. Life goes on.
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#72 nessus

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 10:11 PM

For the record, I do not think Fayne is a superstar. In fact, I'm not even sure how high his ceiling is. Thank you to those who defended my initial post.

Anyway, any solution you have in mind, V=IR? It's the Devils' reputation to have a great defense, but that just isn't so right now.
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#73 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 10:31 PM

I'd say quit playing him so much, but Greene is still hurt, so... *shrug*
Tao is doing ok. If there's a deal to be had (which there isn't, especially not a quantity for quality type of deal, and even more importantly any deal for a top 4 defenseman, who are rarer than gold in the league right now.) then I'd make it, if it were up to me.

In the meantime, Fayne isn't getting any praise from me.

Edited by ohms law, 03 January 2012 - 10:32 PM.

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#74 Triumph

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 10:37 PM

He's a 5th or 6th defenseman at best, who's still got a ton to learn. The second pairing thing comes from exactly what you said: "our crappy defense"


He's not, and he's not.

This is the problem. We need him on the NHL team, and the Devils are historically a powerhouse on defense, so therefore he must be great. It's selection bias, pure and simple.


That's totally idiotic. Are you trolling? The Devils are one of the best teams at preventing shots on goal. I wouldn't call them a powerhouse on defense necessarily, but they play good D.

So, yea... you guys go right ahead hoping that he's a great player. Maybe in 3-4 seasons he will be... maybe.
In the meantime, he sucks. Life goes on.


Right, because you say so, with no evidence at all.

He's outplaying Andy Greene right now. He's outplaying Anton Volchenkov right now.

Edited by Triumph, 03 January 2012 - 10:40 PM.

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#75 ohms law

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 10:53 PM

nope

I'd say more, but... it's not that important. You (and others) have your opinions, and I've got mine. And, you're opinions aren't convincing. Sorry. None of us have any actual input about these things anyway, so... meh

Edited by ohms law, 03 January 2012 - 10:57 PM.

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#76 sundstrom

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Posted 04 January 2012 - 12:24 AM

He's outplaying Anton Volchenkov right now.


i have said i will not comment when it comes to AV but don't push. they are called upon to play different situations. the excellent PK has a lot to do with AV who is often the anchor of it on d. when he's paired properly, he generally holds his own and keeps the puck out of the net. unfortunately, he's been getting the worst defenseman paired with him more often than not.
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#77 ATLL765

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Posted 04 January 2012 - 11:37 AM

This thread is getting retarded. Anyone who honestly believes Fayne sucks just doesn't know hockey at all. If you really think Fayne is terrible, you must also believe that the Devil's coaching staff is ten times as awful for playing him against the opposition's best line every night and for giving him 20+ mins/game. On another team, yes, he's probably not on the top pairing. That's not to say he hasn't been deserving of being on the top pairing here though. He's played better than everyone not named Tallinder on most nights. Volchenkov and Sal are the reason our PK is great, but they've always been shot blocking machines and Fayne just isn't that true stay at home type d-man. He's solid positionally and has a bit of an offensive touch, not a great one, but enough where I can see him being a 25-35 point/season type guy for most of his career. Larsson should and will be a superstar one day, but Fayne is going to be that d-man who's counted on night in and night out to eat big minutes, yet never really is the kind of player that will wow you with his scoring or by being flashy. He's just solid all around and has been making the safe play way more often than not.

So I'd seriously love to know how anyone can think Fayne is awful, but can then in turn believe this team has a snowball's chance in hell at making the playoffs with a coaching staff so inept that they allow our "worst" d-man to play on the top pairing every night....
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#78 Beetlebum

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Posted 04 January 2012 - 11:42 AM

He is our best defenseman right now.
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#79 ohms law

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Posted 04 January 2012 - 11:43 AM

Sheep
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#80 Triumph

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Posted 04 January 2012 - 12:55 PM

i have said i will not comment when it comes to AV but don't push. they are called upon to play different situations. the excellent PK has a lot to do with AV who is often the anchor of it on d. when he's paired properly, he generally holds his own and keeps the puck out of the net. unfortunately, he's been getting the worst defenseman paired with him more often than not.


Fair point - I should have said at 5 on 5. Volchenkov is obviously playing fantastic on the PK.
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